Estimation of Final Energy Demand in Cement Industry by Using of Model for Energy Demand Evaluation

Production of Cement Industry has experienced a noticeable rate of growth in Iran in recent years. Cement Industry, between energy intensive industries, after iron and steel industry, is the most energy intensive sector in Iran economic and it is expected that the growth of energy consumption in this sector as fuel will continue in future. So, precisely forecasting of long run energy consumption in this industry and specification of the potential of energy saving in result of technology progress in this sector; are crucial. Thus, in this paper, the amount of energy consumption and the amount of energy saving because of technology improvement in cement industry during 2005 - 2025 is estimated by using of Model for Energy Demand Evaluation. Introducing of Model for Energy Demand Evaluation Methodology in Simulation of Energy Demand in Cement Industry, running of model and estimation of long run energy demand in cement industry and analysis of it’s results, impact of improvement in cement industry production technology on energy consumption in this sector and the impact of unemployment controlling policy or accelerate economic growth policy on energy demand in cement industry; are the contents of this paper. Results of estimated model appear that the energy saving potential because of technology improvement in cement industry is very high and in 2005, 2015 and 2025 sections is equal to 0.64, 3.1 and 8.6 MBOE respectively. Because of this high energy saving potential, the cement industry must be one of the first industry for energy consumption optimization projects.