Forecasting of Electricity Demand in Iran's Transportation Sector up to 2016 Using MAED Model

Expansion of city electric trains is one of the fundamental solutions considered to control the rise of fuel demand of vehicles, in urban journeys. This solution has been discussed in our country for the last thirty years and has already grown considerably. Another means of public transport in the country is fleet of elecrtic buses that was initially well-liked for environmental reasons (especially in Tehran), but did not really develop afterwards in the absebnce of appropriate infrastructure needed for building new lines. Having these two systems of public transport, it is necessary as for other sectors, to calculate the required demand of this sector and include this in the energy planning programme of the country. Demand forecasting based on final demand models, is one of the accepted forecasting methods, and different models such as MAED have been developed for this purpose. Alongside this, all required information have been collected from the subway and electric bus companies, and the corresponding organizations. After processing and necessary calculations, the required data of the MAED model have been produced. Using this model, the electrical energy demand of transport sector is thus predicted and is compared with aims established in the twenty year development plan manifesto.