Sensitivity Analysis for Hydraulic Behavior of Shiraz Plain Aquifer Using PMWIN

In this study, hydraulic behavior of Shiraz plain aquifer, with an area of ~300 km2, was simulated using PMWIN model. The performance of recently constructed drainage system in the plain was modeled and parameters affecting hydraulic behavior of the aquifer were analyzed. Measured rainfall and evaporation rates in the plain, recharge and discharge rates through the aqueducts, Khoshk and Chenar Rahdar rivers, as well as amount of water discharged from production wells and recharge due to returned wastewater were considered in the model. Plain hydrodynamic coefficients were estimated via calibration and sensitivity analysis of the model was performed for four important parameters. Results showed that the model is most sensitive to recharge rate and hydraulic conductivity, respectively, such that a small variation in these two parameters causes a dramatic change in hydraulic head distribution in the plain. Furthermore, specific yield coefficient influences the seasonal water level fluctuations, but the aqueducts conductance coefficient only affects the aqueduct radius of influence with little effect on the overall hydraulic behavior of the plain.