The 9th Presidential Election and Social Bases in Iran

One significant issue in the political sociology is to study the voting behaviour of people in different elections. For political sociologists, a country like the Islamic Republic of Iran which holds at least one election each year can be an interesting case study; however, there are unfortunately few quantitative studies conducted on elections in Iran in the last three decades. A main advantage of quantitative studies on elections is that having reviewed the past election procedures, one may forecast the results of elections to be held in future. Concentrating on the social bases in Iran and assuming the existence of a relationship between “social base” and “voting behaviour”, this article seeks to answer the following question: “how could understanding the social bases in Iran during the 9th Presidential election provide the ground for candidates to forecast voters’ behaviour?”. Our main hypothesis is that understanding the social bases which are scattered nationwide based on the income, occupation and education could facilitate forecasting of the behaviour by voters in the 9th Presidential election for policymakers and candidates. Arguing that various variables are affecting the manner of electing candidates in the election, this article emphasizes that considering the economic and social situation of the country in the election of 2005 and the dominant environment of the society, as well as understanding the social bases at that period of time, could show the needs and demands of each social base in a more tangible manner and candidates could win the election by focusing on these demands.