پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال دوازدهم شماره 23 (بهار و تابستان 1396)

Government has complicated multi-dimensional role in Economics. The effect of its policies would not be restricted inside the targeted market but changes the equilibrium and resource allocation on all other markets and, hence, the consistency of government policies is extremely important. In the literature although the role of government has been discussed hugely, however, the interrelation and dependency between government policies has not been considered as it weights. This article using structural equations modeling tries to analyze various dimensions of government interventions and determine the interrelation between its policies on different markets. Focusing on monetary, credit and foreign exchange markets, the results indicate a substitutive relation between interventions on credit and foreign exchange markets and complement relations between these two with money market. The substitutive relation between credit and foreign exchange market means that government has intervened in both to control external shocks and protect domestic production. But the effect of interventions is not restricted inside these two markets. The results show that monetary policies of government have been passive. In the last three decades government interventions in exchange and credit market have determined and leaded government policies in monetary market.

The important role of savings in economic growth and development has been always a crucial issue for developing economies. The main purpose of present study was to investigate the factors affecting domestic national savings in Iran, during the period from 1343 to 1392 with emphasis on changing the government budget deficit. In order to to analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between the variables responsible, an auto regressive distributed Lag model (ARDL) was used. The results show that short-term and long-term impact of variables such as economic growth, interest rates and social insurance on national saving rate is statistically positive and significant. While, the effects of Government budget deficit and inflation rate is statistically negative and significant on savings rate. The results also indicate that, one percent increase in the rate of budget deficit, eventually leads to a decrease of national saving rate in long-term and short-term respectively, 0.0058 and 0/004 respectively. That means, the government deficit in the long term, has a greater impact than short-term shocks, on the reduction of national savings ratio to GNP. Furthermore, the coefficient of error correction is equal to -0.34 which indicates, in each period of the study, 34 percent of imbalances in national savings level is adjusted to long-term relationship.

The convergence process is reviewed as one of the results of economic growth in recent years. The order of convergence is that, poor areas have higher growth rates than the rich, so the poor areas are getting closer to wealthier regions in terms of economic status over the time. So in this study, we tried to answer the fundamental question that there are income convergence and expenditure Convergence among the Provinces of Iran during (1982-2012) or not?. For this purpose, we used panel unit root tests in order to investigate absolute and conditional beta convergence. The results show that in this period the absolute and conditional beta convergence for incomes and costs of province are approved.For this purpose, we used panel unit root tests in order to investigate absolute and conditional beta convergence. The results show that in this period the absolute and conditional beta convergence for incomes and costs of province are approved.For this purpose, we used panel unit root tests in order to investigate absolute and conditional beta convergence. The results show that in this period the absolute and conditional beta convergence for incomes and costs of province are approvedFor this purpose, we used panel unit root tests in order to investigate absolute and conditional beta convergence. The results show that in this period the absolute and conditional beta convergence for incomes and costs of province are approved.

Looking at the trend of oil price in Iran economy, it seems that the oil boom periods have been accompanied by an increase in residential prices, but there isn’t reverse of this relation in oil recession periods. Therefore, the analysis of the relationship between residential price and oil price requires an asymmetrical model. In this study, the effect of oil price on housing price in asymmetric shape in 1972-2015 periods has been analyzed using Shin et al. (2014). For this purpose, a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach has been used. The results confirm the asymmetric relationship between oil price and the residential price index. So that, in the short and long run, the increase in oil price has a positive and significant effect on residential price, while the decreasing in oil price does not have a significant effect. In summery the result of this study provides a new explanation of the Business cycle of the residential market and the global oil price is introduced as an effective variable in this cycle. But the role of this variable is confirmed only during the period of increasing oil price. Another finding is that consumer price index has a positive and significant effect on residential price in the short-run and long-run.

There is a difference between the relationship between ICT and economic growth. One hypothesis is that the development of information and communication technology (ICT) leads to increased economic growth, and the other hypothesis considers economic growth as an effective factor in the development of information and communication technology. In addition to these two hypotheses, a third hypothesis is also proposed, according to which ICT and economic growth has a two-way causality relationship The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between ICT development and economic growth in Iran's entire provinces.. This study uses panel error correction model and panel co integration and causality tests to investigate short run and long run relationship between ICT and Economic growth in Iran’s province in the time period of 2010- 2015. Long run and short run coefficients estimation have done by using Dynamic Ordinary Least Square, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and Pooled Mean Group respectively. The results of this study indicate that there is a the bidirectional causality between economic growth and ICT (all three components of ICT development) in the short term in the whole of Iran, but in the long run there is a one-way relationship from the development index Information and communication technology and its components contribute to economic growth.

Several models have been proposed to explain the relationship between risk and return on capital assets, among which the most important are the use of the CCAPM model. The inadequacy of the power utility function used in the model to explain the behavior of the observations, including the inability to solve the Risk Premium Puzzle, has led to an examination of the various methods and forms of other utility functions, among which the use of the proposed recursive utility functions By Epstein and Zin (1991).
In this article, after introducing and explaining the theoretical foundations of the Risk Premium Puzzle, we examine the ability of the model capital asset pricing based on consumption by using recursive utility with using Tehran Stock data for the years 1988- 2014 using the GMM method.
The results of the research show that, in addition to the empirical evidence, the estimated value of the relative risk aversion coefficient in the Euler equation related to the CCAPM model is at least equal to 22.07, which confirms the existence of the Risk Premium Puzzle. After adjusting the above model, using the recursive utility function and separating the relative risk-aversion coefficient and intertemporal substituation , the values obtained for these two parameters were 0.3 and 1.45, respectively. Considering the significant difference and also the significant decrease , the ability to adjustment the CCAPM model based on recursive utility function in solving the Risk Premium Puzzle for the stock market of Iran can be concluded.

The high level of corruption is a sign of state weakness and will lead to inefficiency of the government policies. On the other hand, corruption can have an important effect on fair distribution of income as one of the government's economic policies to reduce poverty. For this purpose, the present study uses Panel Vector Auto-Regression analysis to examine the relationship between corruption perceptions index and income inequality in D8 countries during the period of 2003-2016. In addition to the cointegration relationship between the variables, fully modified least squares method are discussed to determine long-term relationships between variables. The results of the model estimation indicate the U-shape between corruption and income inequality. This result shows the inefficient role of corruption in the economies of the countries.
In fact, corruption can be regarded as a privilege and instrument in the hands a group of people who, using this illegal instrument, can easily obtain various privileges, and through bribery and rents to macro-illegal profits which will also increase class gap in society.The Kuznets hypothesis also confirms the existence of an inverse U-shape relationship between per capita income and income inequality and a U-shaped relationship between government size and income inequality. In addition, the relationship between tax revenue to GDP and unemployment rate with income inequality were negative and positive respectively.