فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 105 (بهار 1398)

Establishing the free trade and removing the customs barriers will create a competitive environment internationally. Therefore, it is likely that by the liberalization of trade, activities formed under the umbrella of strong supportive policies will be difficult. The Iranian agricultural sector is strongly supported by the import tariff tool, as compared to many countries and the region. Hence, the analysis of the effects of the removal of tariffs on the liberalization of agricultural sector and the impact of intergenerational links are essential. In order to carry out this research, the import tariffs for agricultural sector were determined. For this purpose, HS codes were initially equated with ISIC codes; and out of 5473 items with 8 digit HS codes, 210 items were identified for the agricultural sector. After equating and identifying the imports of agricultural sector, the tariff rate was calculated in 2011. The results showed that the agricultural sector's agricultural tariff was 15.14 percent. In the next step, the effects of full liberalization of the agricultural sector were simulated in the framework of the input-output table updated in 2011. The results showed that the final demand and value added in the country's economy would increase with the liberalization of agricultural trade; and consequently, the output value would increase. Additionally, the backward and forward linkages of the three subsectors of agriculture including horticulture, animal husbandry and forestry would be smaller. However, key sectors of the Iranian economy, before and after the liberalization of the agricultural sector, would not change. According to the results, liberalization begins with sections that show the slightest changes in past and present links.

Given the importance of optimizing the use of production factors in order to increase the agricultural production, this study used data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with statistical tolerance in the data to estimate efficiency scores for paddy rice farmers of Goharbaran region of Sari County of Iran in an uncertainty situation. For this purpose, 16 combinations were considered based on the amount of input and output in favorable and unfavorable situations and accordingly, the efficiency scores were analyzed. Required data were collected by questionnaires through interviews with 196 rice producers in the region. The study results showed that average efficiencies in four scenarios including original, optimistic, pessimistic and mean efficiency scores of 16 combinations with tolerance were 0.65, 0.85, 0.53 and 0.76, respectively; and the difference between the results of original and other scenarios showed the importance of consideration of uncertainty in the data. Also, the results showed that more than 87 percent of the farmers were not efficient even in optimistic situation. Therefore, given the fact that the majority of representative farmers had low efficiency scores, it is critical to investigate the causes of the inefficiencies and implement appropriate policies to enhance the farmers' performance. Finally, a number of solutions were suggested as the effective efforts to improve the farmers' efficiency, which included among others, training the farmers to increase their performance as well as optimal use of agricultural lands.

Increasing the efficiency of agricultural products is an important factor affecting the high performance without additional cost. According to the limitations of the agricultural sector to increase production through the development of production factors, it seems the best way to achieve appreciate growth in agricultural production is to improve and increase the efficiency of agricultural crop producing provinces. In this regard, this paper applied a stochastic frontier analysis to measure technical efficiency of Iran’s cotton production using panel data for the period of 2000-2012. For all the models, the estimated output elasticity of inputs as pesticide, chemical fertilizer and labor was positive and significant. Results indicated that production process was applied in the economic zone. According to most of the models, Khorasan, Ardebil and East Azerbaijan were the most efficient provinces, standing on the first to third ranks, respectively. Time distribution of technical efficiency indicated that the technical efficiency of provinces had decreased during the study period. Differences between minimum and maximum efficiency rates of provinces reflected the fact that it was possible to reallocate proper input usage and management. On the other hand, due to suitable climate, fertile soil and favorable moisture conditions of Ardebil province for cotton production, this province has to be considered as one of the material and immaterial resources distribution indices by government. In addition, the results showed that machinery led to a significant increase in technical efficiency in cotton production; therefore, the usage of new technology and machinery was recommended in cotton production. Finally, it was recommended for further studies to use model twelve in efficiency measurement; furthermore, investigation of sources of technical inefficiency revealed that inorganic fertilizer resulted in reduction in the technical efficiency.

Considering the importance of zoning the provinces for the purposeful production of agricultural products, the aim of this study was regimentation of provinces based on the physical advantages of wheat production and its fluctuation during 1943-2013. Taxonomy method was used to rank the provinces in rainfed and irrigated wheat. The results showed that according to the scale advantage index (SAI) and efficiency advantage index (EAI) and their fluctuations, for 30 years, Kermanshah province had the best rank for producing irrigated wheat and Kohgiluyeh and Buyer-Ahmad, Markazi, Lorestan, Golestan, North Khorasan and Ilam provinces were in second group. Mazandaran and especially Guilan provinces were classified in the last group for producing wheat. For rainfed wheat, Kurdistan, Razavi Khorasan, Western Azerbaijan, Kermanshah, Hamedan and Zanjan provinces had the best rank and Guilan, Markazi, Sistan and Baluchistan and Khuzestan provinces were classified in the last group. Finally, template national map of wheat production advantage was presented as a criterion for allocating support and policy making in the future.

Studies show no clear pattern of credit distribution in provinces of Iran. This study aimed at identifying the criteria for the allocation of agricultural credits in Kerman province. To make final decisions, the questionnaire information and official statistics were used in FAHP and TOPSIS methods, for the first time, for optimal allocation of agricultural credits. The study results showed that in the present condition, Kerman, Rafsanjan, and Shahr-e Babak Counties with almost 0.80, 0.291 and 0.290 were placed in the first to third ranks, respectively; and Zarand and Sirjan were the last ranks in receiving the agricultural credits. According to the analysis of 17 indicators, Bam, Kerman and Baft Counties with about 052, 0.51 and 0.24, were placed in the first to third ranks. The study results also showed that the status quo Chapters of agricultural land organization program, conservation of soil and water with coefficient of 0.635 had the highest priority of credit distribution. In the end, for the distribution of agricultural credits in Kerman province, giving attention to the organization of the water resources and prioritized Counties of Bam, Kerman and Baft through the concerned policies was recommended.

In Iran, over recent decades, trading program of water permits was developed due to their efficiency in dealing with water scarcity through the use of less water and the creation of released water for consumption with higher value, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, in this study, in order to survey the trading program of water permits between farmers, two water allocation programs under non-trading and trading systems were designed based on Interval-Parameter Two-Stage Stochastic Program Model. Then, the obtained results of two programs were compared based on index of released water volume and decrease in water deficiency. For this study, 40 farmlands in Yolmeh-Salian village and 30 farmlands in Sheikhabad village were selected; all the villages used water from the Voshmgir dam located in Aq-Qala County. The study results showed that the water allocation under trading program led to released water in Yolmeh-Salian, with low and high limits of interval by [261/69, 374/71] ×103 m3 and decrease in water deficiency by interval of [298/61,486/64]×103 m3 with protection of benefit by [237/91, 351/57] million tomans (i.e. × 10 rials); and in Sheikhabad, it led to released water by interval of [176,244/12] ×103 m3 and decrease in water deficiency by [228/44,317/04] ×103 m3 with the protection of benefit by [141/39 , 210/10] million tomans, compared to the non-trading program of water permits.

Assessment of potential value-added of agricultural subsectors and the gap between the potential and actual value-added plays a significant role in setting the policies related to the growth of agriculture sector. This study aimed mainly at estimating the potential value-added of agricultural subsectors in Iran. For this purpose, Hodrick-Prescott, Baxter-King, and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters were applied on the annual statistical data for the period spanning from 1991 to 2014. Once finished with the assessment of the potential value-added and the gap between potential and actual value-added, the research went for an investigation on the effects of production level, price, facilities and subsidies on the value-added gap across the subsectors. The results indicated a significant difference between potential and actual value-added during the considered period, pointing out unused capacities across the agricultural sector. Regression analysis results also confirmed significant and positive contributions of production level to the gap in livestock and fishery subsectors. Accordingly, it was recommended to pay further attention to the provision of required infrastructures and credits for using potential capacities in different subsectors.

Agriculture is one of the most important vulnerable sectors regarding drought phenomenon with significant impacts on the economy of countries. In many previous studies, drought risk management has been mentioned as one of the best scientific methods of drought management. In this regard, this study was conducted in Ferdows County, South Khorasan province of Iran, aiming at both identifying the drought risk indexes to assess agricultural drought risk factors of the region and providing a framework to plan an operational risk response. Precise determination of these indexes and their relative importance makes it possible to assess and analyze drought risk of that region; moreover, a definite framework for agricultural drought risk management can be developed. In this paper, a list of possible drought risk response actions was provided and then they were prioritized. Based on this initial prioritization, cost and difficulties of executing each drought risk response action, the final prioritization of drought risk response actions were determined. Since the risk assessment indexes and drought risk response actions were evaluated based on opinions of experts and linguistic variables, Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchal Process was used to determine the weight of each risk index, and Fuzzy TOPSIS was applied to determine the priority of risk response actions. The study results indicated the pivotal role of “reducing the groundwater and surface water use of agricultural activities” in addressing the agricultural drought and “subsurface irrigation” as the best reaction treatment

An examination of the development of bilateral agreements has shown that countries have been paying increasing attention to concluding bilateral agreements and new regionalism over the last few decades. Iran, like all the countries, has been aligned with this trend and has signed agreements to expand its trade relations with the neighbor countries. One of these is the preferential tariff agreement with Uzbekistan, which was signed in 2003 by the concerned parties. After the conclusion of any agreement, it is important to consider the extent to which the agreement has been able to cover all the intended objectives or to what extent it has been effective in this regard. In this study, using the Smart model, various dimensions of this agreement were considered. The required data included the import and export statistics of the two countries from 2003 to 2016. The results showed that during the first five years of the agreement, the bilateral trade balance was in the interest of Uzbekistan, and this agreement could not work for Iran, due to the poor selection of goods for tariff rebates. In fact, the amount of applied discounts did not have the required degree of expertise, which failed to help Iran's trade. Therefore, in addition to changing the Iranian list of goods, it was suggested that the tariff reduction should be designed to help improve the business relations of both countries. According to the study results, it is possible to use the export capacities of the Iranian products in the agricultural subsectors (e.g. poultry, wheat, sugar and its derivatives and food products) in modifying the list of selected products of the agreement.