فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 31 (پاییز 1398)

The purpose of this research was to develop a methodological framework and the operational process of regional tourism satellite accounts in Iran. This research has employed analytical-comparative approach along with deep documentary studies. Accordingly, the resources and collection method of the regional tourism satellite accounts in Iran were provided by the explanation of the structure of Tables of tourism satellite accounts and introducing the statistical sources used in other countries and also the level of access to data in the provinces of Iran (example: province of Khorasan Razavi). Based on the results of this study and in order to prepare the accounts for the provinces of Iran, it is recommended to prepare seven out of ten target tables (table 1-6 and table 10) and the method of preparation of these accounts should be also directly and independently of regional tourism satellite accounts at the national level. In addition to the available statistic resources, at least three surveys should be done to prepare these accounts including national/provincial surveys completed the survey of the National Tourists, national/provincial out-bound survey of tourists, survey to determine the adjustment factors enterprise information. These accounts are a tool for economic analysis (particularly the economic impact analysis) in the tourism industry, which have a close relationship with other economic accounts (SNA and regional IO tables). The formation Strategic Council of tourism satellite accounts at the provincial level makes to possible to prepare comprehensive information and develop the regional tourism satellite accounts. Provincial Department of Management and Planning Organization is responsible for preparing these statistics and accounts.

The creation of a common monetary union could bring significant economic gains by reducing transaction costs, eliminating exchange rate risks, and consequently increasing trade and capital. In this study, in order to investigate the possibility of forming a common monetary union between Member and Observer states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the effect of external and internal shocks on the supply and demand side on the macroeconomic variables of these countries, using the GVAR Global Vector Regression Model and seasonal data for years 1996 to 2015 is investigated. The results of the study of the effects of external shocks indicate that, apart from Kyrgyzstan, the behavior of other countries is relatively symmetrical to external shocks. The results represent an equally symmetric reaction of the countries to domestic monetary policies, so that only in the foreign sector of the economy we have seen asymmetries about the effect of monetary shocks. The results of the study of the effects of shocks on the supply sector show the more asymmetric reactions of the variables of the model in comparison with external shocks; so that the greatest asymmetry can be seen in the impact of supply shocks on the interest rate of countries; the results outlines the different policy structures of the central banks of the countries under consideration. On the other hand, in relation to the economy of Iran and Kyrgyzstan, we see a different reaction of the foreign sector variables in comparison with other countries, so that the above results indicate differences in foreign exchange regimes or other foreign sector structures of these countries compared to other countries. The final results indicate that there is a greater symmetry of the impact of the shocks under consideration in the countries of China, India and Russia relative to Iran and Kyrgyzstan, so that it is possible to form a monetary union between these countries.

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many countries implemented credit easing policy in the recession period. The main objective of the paper is to investigate the effect of implementing credit policy on macroeconomic variables in Iran's economy.  We estimated the VAR model with seasonal data for the years 1384-1395. In the first place, the unit root test for the time series variables were examined and then, by analyzing the VAR model, we estimated the impulse-response variables.  The results indicate a positive and significant positive effect of credit easing by 0.001 per cent on GDP growth rate and by 0.07 per cent on the private investment rate and by 0.12 per cent on non-oil exports. These effects will reduce the unemployment rate by 0.0025 per cent. It also decreases the real exchange rate by 0.02%.

IF the economy is exposed to Continuous and unexpected Expansionary Monetary Policy, the exchange rate will exceed its long-run value in the short run and returns to that level again in the long-run, This is a short- run phenomenon, Stem from a lack of uniform of Adjustment speed in commodity and asset markets. Considering the destructive and harmful effects of exchange rate overshooting in the economy. In this study, the causes of the formation and effective factors on exchange rate overshooting of Iran & Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries using annual time series data for mentioned countries according to published statistics of World Bank, IMF and Federal Reserve by pooled model in the period 1990-2016 were investigated. Among the factors affecting exchange rate overshooting, there are variables of balance of payment, fiscal policy (government expenditures), monetary shock and oil shock which are examined in detail. In order to estimate effect of oil shock in countries surveyed, using dummy variable, the oil exporting and importing countries are divided. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of variables of fiscal policy (government expenditure), monetary shock expectations, oil shock in oil importing countries and a negative and significant effect of oil shock in oil exporting countries and balance of payments. That means, more government expenses, balance of payments deficit, monetary shock expectations and oil shock in oil importing countries will make exchange rate to overshoot or money depreciation of the country's national currency. While, oil price shock in oil exporting countries decreases exchange rate overshooting or money appreciation of the country's national currency which sign of all coefficients are fully justified according to theoretical basis of the economy.

The study of the impact of unemployment insurance policies on job incentives for unemployed people requires empirical studies. In this paper, the survivability in unemployment insurance has been investigated based on individual characteristics using survival analysis method. The focus of the research is on the impact of unemployment benefit and spell, which is then divided into five different categories of these two variables, along with the variables of gender, marital status, educational level, previous use Unemployment insurance and vocational training are also considered. The Analysis on the Survivability Function is based on Fund Social Security organization's data, during (January 2013 to June 2018). The result of the Survival Survey illustration unemployment insurance benefit and spell significantly increases survive in unemployment insurance. Also, the variables of gender, marital status and the duration of previous use of unemployment insurance in low unemployment benefit were significant. As men, married and those who have used less than previous unemployment insurance, are more likely to survive. On the other hand, variables of education, vocational education and age have no significant effect on the survival of individuals in unemployment insurance. Considering the significant variables, It is recommended to optimize unemployment insurance to consider The downward trend of monthly unemployment insurance and reduced payment against proposed job rejection, the reduction in the length of payment based on the average of similar countries and design of efficient system in vocational education and employment centers.

The global tourism industry, which has invested in many countries for its profits, can be a substitute for countries exporting raw materials. This industry can have various developmental effects, such as currency earnings, re-distribution of income, job creation and economic prosperity and since it is closely related to other industries such as hoteliers, transportation, travel agencies, craftsmen, and restaurateurs. Today tourism is considered as one of the most important components and development indicators, as most countries make special investments in this sector. Due to its historical and natural status, Iran has a good basis for foreign tourism expansion. Issues that will help government officials and planners to maximize their productivity and profitability from foreign tourism is predicting tourist demand for years to come. In this regard, this paper, using the improved Gray Model GM (1, 1), seeks to provide a good prediction of the future tourist demand for Iran. The privileged feature of the GM's (1, 1) improved gray model is that it can be predicted with a very low number of data and in addition has a very low error. The results of the research show that tourism demand is increasing and by 2022 the demand for foreign tourism will reach 17.5 million per year. Also, comparing the results of GM (1, 1) model with ARIMA method indicates a lower error of GM (1, 1) model in predicting the number of foreign tourists. Considering the importance of predicting the tourism demand in planning and the characteristics of the GM model (1, 1) it will be useful, carrying out separate researches on the demand of foreign tourists from different countries. Since tourists in different regions have different cultures and desires, separate studies can be useful in more accurate planning.

Public sector development projects are being completed with many delays, and there are still many uncompleted projects in the country. One of the ways to overcome this issue is to use public-private partnership models that have been considered in the Sixth Development Plan in Iran. However, the success of these models requires playing role by government properly. In this paper, in the form of a theoretical and analytical model, the risks arising from the non-allocation of capital credits to the lagged infrastructure projects are investigated. The result of the study is that in public-private partnership models, it is necessary to invest fully in the non-governmental sector. Public sector is merely subject to the commencement of the period, which may be in the form of land acquisition or subdivision or similar projects, and not subject to annual construction allocations. In this case, it is optimal for the government to invest and spend, rather than directly participate in the project's construction years, through wages, services and expenses by contributing through the annual budgets. In this way, government participates in the investment and acts as a service buyer instead of investing directly in infrastructure. As a result, the required credits are transferred from the development budget (acquisition of capital assets) to the current budget (expenditure). In addition, the opportunity cost of delays in the exploitation of infrastructure plans has been calculated. This computational framework can be considered as one of the criteria for the allocation and pricing of government projects in the form of public-private partnership models.

Among the policies pursued by the government in pursuit of economic goals, financial policies are in the form of packages and financial incentives. However, the formulation of these policy packages is not feasible regardless of how the government's financial policies affect the macroeconomic variables. in this regard, the present paper examines the relationship between government financial policies in the form of increasing government spending with some macroeconomic variables including production, exchange rate, degree of economy openness and government debt over the period of 2018-1980 using The SVAR method is discussed. The results of the research have shown that production variables, government debt, the degree of economy openness and exchange rate have the largest share in explaining the changes in the increasing coefficient of government spending

The economies of the world are always affected by the oil price, because oil is considered as the largest energy source of countries. As a result, oil price changes will have a main role in goods and services price changes. The main purpose of this paper is studying the dynamics of oil price pass-through into domestic Prices index in Iran over time. For this purpose, two models i.e. “Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)”, and “State-Space” Models are used during the period of 1990 to 2017 with seasonal frequency. The results of the ARDL model show that the oil price pass-through into the prices index is positive and significant in the long run, while oil price pass-through into the consumer price index is insignificant in short run, but it is positive and significant into producer price index in short run. Also, the results show that after 1995 as a structural break point, the oil price pass-through into consumer price index has declined, but producer price index has increased after 2011. The results of the state-space model indicate that the oil price pass-through into the consumer and producer index is not same over time. So, the oil price pass through was higher and fluctuating during the 1995 to 1997, but after 2000, the pass through into the producer price index are a pretty mild and positive trend, and this pass through has happened at a higher level in comparison with the consumer price index. Therefore, in general, global oil price volatility has affected the inflation of Iran's economy as an oil exporting country, and its intensity depends on how oil revenues are managed within the country. As the role of establishing a Foreign Exchange Reserves in 2000 and the National Development Fund in 2011 is evident to control the intensity of fluctuations oil prices pass through into inflation. Therefore, the emphasis on the stabilization role of the National Development Fund in preventing the transfer of inflationary surges of oil price changes to inflation is one of the policy recommendations of this paper for economic planners and decision makers.

Health is one of the main development indicators and investment in this sector has direct impact on welfare and economic growth. The impact of health expenditures on the economic and social performance of the community and its importance in provision of sustainable development has been a matter for economists and policy makers. The most important factors affecting economic growth are labor, physical capital, and human capital. Health is one of the indicators of human capital that boosts labor productivity and as a result boosts economic growth and development. So many models and research have tried to identify the factors cause to increase health expenditure and explain how they are effective. Lack of inadequacy in providing health care services in each country is considered as weaknesses of the governments. One of the important health Challenges in Iran usually has been Identifying the budget determinants. Tax and oil revenues are two main determinant factors for health expenditures in Iran. The purpose of the research is to investigate the effect of tax and oil revenues on health expenditures in Iran. The research was performed ARDL method using annual data from 1364 to 1394, in calculating, Eviews10 software was used. The results of the estimation show that there is a positive and significant relationship between tax and oil revenues with health expenditures. Also, based on the estimated results, the coefficient of estimation of the variables of urban rate and per capita income has a positive and significant effect and income inequality variables and education have a negative and significant effect on health expenditures in Iran.