نشریه مطالعات جمعیتی
سال چهارم شماره 2 (پیاپی 8، پاییز و زمستان 1397)

Fertility in Muslim Majority Countries has declined dramatically over the past few decades. Today, a significant number of these Countries experiencing below-replacement level fertility. This paper aims to explain the convergence of 47 Muslim Majority Countries (MMCs) with the levels and trends of fertility in developed countries. Data are taken from the United Nations Population Division and the United Nations Human Development Report. Results showed that the fertility transition in MMCs, which dates back to the 1970s, has accelerated since the mid-1990s. By the mid of the third millennium, more than 76 percent of the MMCs will be in controlled fertility situation. Although the experience of fertility convergence, its intensity and timing vary from country to another one, cross-sectional analysis has shown that fertility convergence has been accompanied by an increase in gender equality and the use of contraceptive methods in MMCs. Consequently, any policy aimed at increasing fertility and preventing the continuation of below-replacement level fertility in MMCs should be taken into account with regard to the status of women in the community and the family. Adopting policies that are consistent with women aspirations will increase the likelihood of the success of Muslim governments to increase fertility.

This research paper primarily aims to examine the preferences for childbearing among selected ethnic groups in Iran. The ethnic groups included in this study comprise of Kurd, Gilak, Lor, Lak, Mazani, Turk, and Turkaman. The research findings highlight both similarities and disparities on childbearing desires across different ethnic groups. On the one hand, the most visible similarities relate to the fact that the childlessness is almost undesirable for all ethnic groups, and the majority of them prefer the two-child pattern of childbearing.  On the other hand, the disparities across the ethnic groups exist predominantly in the pattern of desires for ‘3 children and more’. In sum, these research findings confirm the underlying conclusion that none of the independent variables even tertiary education could not lead to an ethnic convergence towards preferences for high childbearing (that is, the desire for having 3 children and more), suggesting that ethnicity and ethnic belonging still tend to play a substantially important role in the preferences for childbearing.

The substantial and continuous decline in mortality has been one of the major gains in socio-economic development over the last two centuries. One of the most important questions in populations in the final stages of the mortality transition is the extent of longevity inequality. The aim of this study is to investigate inter-individual longevity inequality in Iran. In other words, we try to answer the question that to what extent longevity has been distributed equally within individuals and how has changed from 1973 to 2016. Loranz curve, Gini coefficient, standard deviation of longevity, and standard deviation of adult life span were constructed for both males and females. The length of life inequality indices shows that with the improved life expectancy at birth, longevity inequalities have decreased. This changing trend in the longevity inequality coefficients shows that despite a rapid decrease in the Gini coefficient, adult longevity inequities are not easily reduced.

The fall of social capital is a key situational-structural factor influencing the increasing tendency of emigration from Iran in recent years. The aim of this article is to examine the effects of social capital, its dimensions and levels on tendency of Iranians to emigration from the country using secondary analysis of the National Survey of Social Capital in 2014. The sample size includes 14035 people aged 18 and over in 31 provinces of the country, both of urban and rural areas. Results indicated 37 percent of respondents have low level of social capital, and one-fourth of them have high tendency to emigration from Iran. The results of bivariate analysis showed that all dimensions and levels of social capital significantly have negative relationships with emigration tendency. Finally, multivariate analysis (ordinal regression) indicated that with controlling for demographic-contextual variables, the effects of social capital on tendency to emigration still significant and strong. Thus, with the decline of different dimensions and levels of social capital, tendency to emigration from Iran is increased. In conclusion, one of important factors on increasing international migration from Iran is declining of social capital.

Age patterns are a key scale for comparing internal or external migration between countries or over time. The observed migration rates show strong regularities in age patterns. These regularities can be showed by mathematical functions known as multi-dimensional migration models. Multi-exponential models are a way of smoothing age patterns, correcting missing data, and comparing migration age patterns. There are migration questions in the censuses in Iran and it has gained considerable understanding into the patterns of migration and the volume of population movements in the country.  But these data are age-related error, and the appropriate age pattern for immigrants cannot be plotted. The present paper studies the age and sex patterns of migration in the country using multivariate modeling system designed by Rogers and Castro (1981). The results showed that the 7-parameter model was in accordance with the age pattern of internal migration of Iran and the age pattern of internal migration is similar to the standard model. Finally, the estimated pattern of migration by single ages and sex for researchers is presented.

The main purpose of this research is to rank, classify and stratify the urban areas of the border counties of Iran based on sustainable development indices. This study used the data of general population and housing censuses, sample surveys, and other related findings to measure sustainability. Sustainability was assessed in terms of the four social, economic, physical-access and environmental dimensions across Iranian border cities. VIKOR model was used to rank the cities. The findings of this study show that about 3% of urban areas of border counties of Iran are in an unstable condition, 42% are in a relatively unstable condition, 53% are in a moderately stable condition and 2% are in a relatively stable condition. The results also show that, in these areas, the situation is not very favorable in all socio-demographic, economic, environmental and physical indices. In particular, the economic, environmental and physical-access indices are unstable or relatively unstable. It is only in the socio-demographic index that the situation is somewhat favorable, with most of the border cities being in a moderate condition in terms of sustainable development. According to the research findings, there is a need for attention and practical planning for the development of these areas.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the causal effects of demographic, economic and social variables on the crude divorce rate in Iran's provinces. In this study, we used secondary analysis of population and housing census data for 2011 and 2016, labor force survey for 2011-2011, cost and income survey of urban households for 2011-2011 and marriage and divorce statistics of Iran Census Bureau. The use of the path analysis method is discussed. In this study, 23 variables were studied, out of which six variables including urbanization ratio, total fertility rate, sex ratio, average urban household income, proportion of married women with higher education and Gini coefficient one year ago were significant. . The most direct effect is related to the variable income of urban households, then the total fertility rate and the share of married women with higher education in the negative direction. In addition, urbanization, sex ratio, and the share of married women in higher education have an indirect effect on the divorce rate. As such, the variations in the crude divorce rate of the provinces of the country can be explained by the variations of the mentioned variables and can partially explain the provincial differences in divorce.