فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 64 (بهار 1399)

The natural gas market is currently undergoing dramatic changes and is becoming globalized. One of the major developments in the global natural gas market in recent years is the establishment of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF). Since the founding of this forum, there have been many speculations about whether GECF would become a cartel like OPEC. Cartels contributes to the coordination of productive behavior between members  and influence  global prices using theirmonopoly power. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between the production of Gas Exporting Countries Forum  members,  coordination of production behavior and decisions, and the relationship between the production of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum and  global gas prices, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. The results of the study showed that,  there is no harmony of productive behavior between members and that GECF  does not influence the price of natural gas in global markets. Therefore, the assumption  that GECF acts as a cartel is rejected.

Determining the optimal level of oil and gas production from the upstream projects of the country is one of the main challenges in the formulation of Master Development Plans (MDP) for petroleum projects and impacts the return on investment and profitability of contracting parties, especially the contractor. In Iran's oil and gas contracts, since the development of the MDP is the responsibility of the Ministry of Petroleum, the production profile of petroleum projects is determined by the National Iranian Oil Company Management and Consolidated Planning Department, based solely on technical geology and submitted to the contractor. The purpose of this research is to introduce and extend the scope of operation research planning models in order to determine the optimum level of crude oil and gas production based on technical, geological and contractual elements in Iranian oil and gas projects. For this purpose, we first review different common models for determining the optimum level of oil and gas production. After identifying their deficiencies, a comprehensive model based on operation research planning procedures is proposed to determine the optimal level of oil and gas production in petroleum projects. The proposed model in this study is a branch of nonlinear dynamic optimization models in which the maximization of the current net present value of each oil and gas project for the target production level is set as the objective function and the technical, technological and contractual factors are considered as constraints. The results of this research show that the use of operation research planning models in determining the level of crude oil and gas production provides reliable results, and facilitates the development of an MDP for the development of oil and gas fields of the country by the MCP department of the NIOCJEL .

In this paper, we use the insights of the Real Business Cycles School, to calculate effects of different approaches to allocation of non-renewable (oil) resources’ revenues on Iran’s economic growth. We compare three different approaches, namely allocating the total revenue to the government, allocating some part of the revenue to the government and the rest to investing and allocating the revenue based on Hartwick lemma by using a General Equilibrium Model.The results show that to obtain the best results in terms of  economic growth, we should allocate the revenues based on Hartwick lemma. In another word, technical growth can cause suitable economic growth only if accumulation of capital can replace the non-renewable (energy) resource’s revenue.

One of  success factors of public-private partnership contracts is the effective public supervision on their implementation, including standards to be observed by the private party to the partnership. In other words, a key element in using private sector’s potential is defining activity standards and precise supervision of their implementation. In this research we identify the factors that impact effectiveness of government’s supervision of public-private partnership contract, in addition to studying the principles and foundation of this supervision.  To this end, we first spcify our research goal, method and scope and then define the concept of optimum supervision and control. We analyze the role played by the government or public entity in BOT (build-operate-transfer) agreements. In the following section, we analyze contract management and method of supervision in public-private partnership. After defining the statistical population, statistical sample, and method of data analysis methods, we proceed to test our hypotheses. The results of quantitative data analysis and tests performed would be discussed in the next sections.  We will then proceed to analyze the results of our sudy,  Our research provides valuable insights on factors that impact government’s supervision and provides some suggestions for improving it.

In this study, for the first time, we model gasoline consumption behavior in Iran using the long-term memory model of the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average and non-linear Markov-Switching regime change model. Initially, the long-term memory feature of the ARFIMA model is investigated using the data from 1927 to 2017. The results indicate that the time series studied has a long-term memory. Therefore, after this step and determining the autoregressive lag (AR) and moving average (MA) values, the demand for gasoline in the Iranian economy is estimated using ARFIMA model (1.0.28.2). We also estimate gasoline consumption in Iran using Markov-Switching model, with the MSH model based on the lowest Akaike with 3 regimes and 2 lags. Finally, for modeling gasoline consumption behaviors, the Markov-switching model based is superior to the ARFIMA model.  Our findings indicate that if we do not use the most appropriate model for estimating future demand for gasoline, policy making in this area will not be optimal.

This paper examines the applicability of the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) as an evolutionary alternative to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) by studying daily returns on the three benchmark crude oils. The data coverage of daily returns is from January 2th 2003 to March 5th 2018. In this paper, two different tests in the form of two distinguished classes (linear and nonlinear) have been used to evaluate adaptive behavior of returns. The results that were obtained from linear (automatic portmanteau) and nonlinear (generalized spectral) tests represent the oscillatory behavior of returns that corresponds with the adaptive market hypothesis. A rolling window approach with different lengths is applied to track whether returns are predictable or not through time. Among the oil markets examined in this study, the Brent and the WTI oil markets possess the highest efficiency levels, whereas the OPEC oil basket has the lowest efficiency level. In addition, results show that the market conditions for WTI and Brent are consistent with the implication of the AMH model.  However, the behavior of OPEC basket data indicates that as we approach longer window lengths (e.g. from 100 to 500-days) the applicability of the adaptive market hypothesis decreases.

This study suggests a new method for analysing the behavioral economics issues in the framework of game theory. In this context, bounded rational agents interact with one another in a strategic manner. Therefore, conventional economic modeling techniques are unable to explaine this kind of interactions. In this regard, evolutionary game theory and agent-based modeling are known as the most suitable tools for studying the dynamic environments of strategic interactions of OPEC members in the period of 2015 to 2040. The results of implementation of 4 agent-based behavioral models suggest that despite the split between members (countries impatient and patient), impatient members enjoy of vast oil reserves. But during the evolutionary process, members gradually learn the type of policy against rival groups. So, there is the possibility to benefit more impatient members of OPEC during the game in having more market share against rival groups and expel them from a position of market dominance over OPEC.

Achieving sustainable economic growth is one of the most important goals of countries' economic programs and policies in the current era. Along with economic growth, consumption of energy rises. Since fossil fuels provide a major share of the world's energy, increased fuel consumption is an inevitable feature of economic growth.  Continuation of this trend increases greenhouse gas emmissions, notably carbon dioxide, and further degrades the environment. The main objective of this study is to measure carbon dioxide emissions and analyze factors that determine carbon dioxide emissions and the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and the Iranian economy within the framework of the environmental input-output model. In order to extract the environmental input-output model, we use the 52-sectors national input-output table for 2010 and its integration into 24 activities. The results show that transport sectors, non-metallic minerals and basic metals industries have had the most direct and indirect effects on carbon dioxide emission.