فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 131 (تابستان 1399)

This study measures the impact of foreign tourism revenue on sectoral output growth and identifying its channels of economic impacts. For this purpose output multipliers and structural path analysis approaches in the social accounting matrix framework are employed. The most advantage of the structural path analysis is that provides a detailed technique of decomposing output multipliers and identifying a full network of path of economic influence from the origin sector to its ultimate destination. For this purpose main data bases are: the 2011 SAM of Parliament Research Center of Iran and the foreign inbound tourism revenue in 2017 in the absence of tourism satellite accounts in Iran.Results show foreign tourism revenue (28.2 thousands billion rials) has led to increased output of all economic sectors (62.1thousands billion rials), and total output multiplier is 2.31 unit, in which other services, wholesale and retail, and hotel sectors have received 13.71, 13.66, and 12.66 percent of the total output effects, respectively. The decomposition of output multiplier and structural path analysis results revealed that food, restaurant, road, rail and air transportation have the most direct paths and vice versa for the other related tourism sectors. Moreover, wholesale and retail, agriculture, road transportation, and other services play a significant role in influencing foreign tourists' incomes on the Iranian economy.

The Sugar industry is one of the highest water-consuming industries and due to organic matter contaminations and high BOD index of its wastewater, it is one of the most water-polluting industries. It imposes costly externalities to society. This survey aimed first to assess environmental efficiency and marginal abatement costs of BOD and then to estimate marginal abatement cost function and calculate pigovian tax using regression analysis. The results show in order to be in compliance with Iran’s national standard level of BODC, appropriate required pigouvian tax per kilogram of BOD for appropriate wastewater disposal to absorbent wells, surface waters and farmlands are respectively 739366, 739366 and 703069 Rials.

The literature has addressed the interaction and dual behaviors of fiscal and monetary policy on the labor market. Generally, if these policies are implemented in the labor market, it is not possible to have a specific outcome. In this study using the dynamic Bayesian models (TVP-FAVAR, TVP-DMA) we try to determine how these policies affect unemployment rate for The quarterly data during the period 1991Q1 - 2018Q4. According to TVP-DMA results, the growth rate of government construction expenditures has been one of the most important factor that affect unemployment rate changes significantly during 92 periods(out of 112 periods). Based on results of TVP-DMA model, fiscal policy such as Current and construction government expenditures and total tax revenues have had a greater impact on the unemployment rate than monetary policies; changes in the monetary base and the amount of liquidity and exchange rates. The result, based on TVP-FAVAR model, reflect that all variables affecting unemployment have positive effect on this variable in the long run. In other words, executive policies have not been able to reduce unemployment. The time inconsistencies in the implementation of policies and lack of development in labor market infrastructure can be considered as reasons for the ineffectiveness of these variables. Clearly, the positive relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth shows phenomenon of stagflation in the country.

Iran's economy has been overwhelmed by problems such as budget deficit and chronic inflation in recent decades, which based on theoretical literature and experimental evidence, a bilateral relationship exists between these two factors. This study assesses the impact of inflation on the budget deficit, known as Tanzi effect. Due to this relationship, it is possible that increases and decreases in inflation have different impacts on government deficit (total and mixed). This study examines the asymmetric effect of inflation on budget deficit (total, operating, and capital) from 1190:2 to 2018:3, and testing the Tanzi effect in the meantime. To analyze and estimate the asymmetric relationship, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag has been used, which first used by Shin et al. (2014) to analyze an asymmetric relationship. The results show that increases and decreases in inflation have an indirect effect on the total and operating budget deficits in the long run, which indicates the Patinkin effect in Iran's economy. In addition, Tanzi and Patinkin effects have not been found in the capital budget deficit. Moreover, findings indicate that inflation has had a non-linear (asymmetric) effect on the total and operating budget deficits. Furthermore, government oil revenue has indirect effect on the total budget, direct one on the operational budget, and indirect one on the capital budget.

The input-output tables provide useful information regarding the economic and social situations of countries. The world input-output database (WIOD) enables simultaneous comparison of economic and social situations of countries worldwide. The Europe Commission has provided the WIOD for 27 members of the commission, 16 large non-Europe countries and rest of the world from 1995 to 2014. The input-output of the economic sectors of Iran are aggregated with those of the rest of the world. Hence, it is not possible to study the situation of Iran in the world table. In addition, it is not possible to examine the reciprocal effects of the economic policy of Iran or other countries on production sectors of each other properly. To this end, the Iran input-output table for the year 2011 is highlighted, where, in the same year, Iran stood 44th in WIOD. Thus, in addition the new table allows the researcher to study the situation of Iran in the world economy, it make possible to reveal the effect of internal policy on economic sectors of other countries and vice versa.

Liquidity Creation is one of the roles that banks play in the theory of financial intermediation, and its components are theoretically related to the economy. In this study, using the methodology of Berger and Bouwman (2009) to compute banks' liquidity creation, we examine the impact of economic sanctions, as well as oil price shocks on the liquidity creation of Iranian banks. Using annual unbalanced panel data and systematic GMM method, the results show the negative and significant effects of oil price shocks on banks' liquidity creation. It has also been shown that oil price shocks have a direct negative effect on liquidity creation within the balance sheet as well as the total liquidity creation. Economic sanctions also hurt liquidity creation and exacerbate the negative effects of oil price shocks. The results of this study provide good policy applications for monetary policymakers.

This paper examines the impact of financial health on firms’ survival in export market based on heterogeneous firm hypothesis by using data of 138 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during the 1379-1396. Initially, for determining financial health index, principal component analysis is used and then, by using flexible survival analysis, the effect of financial health on firm survival in export market is tested. The results show that financial variables are one of the Heterogeneous factors among firms and increase of financial health (decrease of financial constraint) reduces the possibility of exit from export market.

Because of the importance of the state of financial stability in the economy and its impact on economic growth, we tried to test the fiscal sustainability in Iran by using the nonlinear Markov Switching unit root test from 1973 to 2017. The results obtained from the linear and nonlinear unit root tests show that the fiscal state is unstable in two different regimes entitled high and low fluctuations, and the fiscal policy during the studied period has been experienced an unstable situation. In other words, increasing government debt at a given period has not declined over time and has accumulated in the coming years, and government fiscal policies, regardless of accumulated debt compensation, expands spending policies. Therefore, serious consideration of this issue and formulation of fiscal policy, especially budgeting and strengthening of long-term government debt repayment paths to achieve financial sustainability status, is one of the policy recommendations of this paper for economic planners and decision-makers in Iran. Also, it is expected that, regardless of these considerations, the Iranian economy has always suffered from the accumulation of government debts over time.

Municipalities use three kind of resource including toll, local tax, sharing tax revenue and intergovernmental transfers. By acting laws such as Value Added Tax law, major revenue of municipalities is financed from sharing tax revenue associated with VAT. Distributing sharing tax revenue associated with VAT is in a way that involves sum kind of fiscal illusion that is called flypaper effect. This paper is trying to test flypaper effect in concentrated sharing tax revenue associated with VAT (adapted in Note (2), Article (39) VAT law) in cities of Iran. For this purpose, a regression model with dummy variables is used and flypaper effect coefficient is estimated separately for municipalities with different grades. Results show there is no flypaper effect in concentrated sharing tax revenue for none of municipalities; however, flypaper effect coefficient for metropolitans and small towns are larger than other municipalities. It could be a basis for choosing the intergovernmental grants methods for different municipalities.

Intra-industry trade (IIT) in final goods, which depends on transport costs, seasonal trade and even product diversification, is often subject to lower pressures from commercial, political and control levels due to competition in industry for higher quality and higher value added, which is a controlling factor for the environment. The purpose of this article is to determine the type of cross-trade between Iran and selected trading partners and to identify its environmental impact. For this purpose, the different types of Iran’s IIT with its selected trading partners were calculated based on the Globel-Lloyd (GL), Fontan, Friedenberg and Peridy (FFP) and the Azhar and Eliot (AE) indexes over the period (2001-2015). Emprical Results show that a significant share of intra-industry trade between Iran and selected countries (including neighbours, countries from East Asia and Europe) relies on vertical intra-industry trade, indicating that there is little competitive pressure on Iranian tradable goods. According to Azhar and Eliot's index, the major share of intra-industry trade is made from low quality goods. Hence, choosing such a trade strategy has not led to improvement of Iran's environmental quality. The implication of the empirical findings figures out the policy of IIT flows expansion in order to preserve the quality of the country’s environment.