فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 35 (پاییز 1399)

In recent years, the use of fiscal rules to influence fiscal policy and macroeconomic has been expanding in economics literature, so that many countries have various fiscal rules to manage macroeconomic stability and prevent extreme budget deficits. In Iran, this has started from the Fifth Development Plan with the allocation part of the oil revenues to the National Development Fund, but in recent years it has not been able to achieve its goals of stabilizing the economy. In this study, using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, the appropriate rule for Iran is examined using three scenarios: baseline, revenue fiscal rule and budget balance rule. The results show that the budget balance rule can have a suitable performance considering the structure of Iran as an oil exporting country and minimize the policy-making loss function.

The existence of multiple shocks and changes in an economic system creates numerous effects on internal variables and economic sectors, and any changes in the production structure can be affect the external sector of the economy or the distribution of household incomes and their welfare. This study, with the hypothesis of Dutch disease, examines the amount of oil revenue transfers using the social accounting matrix and a meaningfully calculated general equilibrium approach. The results of the research show that in the scenario of equal interest rates and time preference rate, the amount of oil revenues each year should be increased at a rate of 10%, which can be maintained at the National Development Fund, so that different periods can be used to optimize oil revenues for using it. In the disparity scenario of interest rates and time preference rates, only when the time preference rate should be much lower than the interest rate at the present time, due to the increasing consumption path and the increase in tradable goods consuming to be exchanged relative to the non-exchangeable part, it can be the disease Dutch achieved the best. Otherwise, the Dutch disease will be worse off due to a reduction in the exchangeable part and an increase in imports.

Development is not just an economic phenomenon but it includes also economic, social, political and cultural aspects. Therefore, to study the development of each sector, it is necessary to consider its various dimensions. On the other hand, in order to accurately plan and effectively implement policies, it is necessary to pay attention to its evaluation at the partial and provincial levels, instead of examining the extent of development in general and at the national level. Therefore، This paper used numerical taxonomy and SPSS and Excel softwares to evaluate the degree of development of the provinces of Iran. It also examined the existence of a core-periphery model to determine the process of inequality change between central and border provinces with the help of 25 indexes for the years 2006, 2011 and 2016. Results confirmed the model of the core-periphery; central provinces such as Tehran, Isfahan, Yazd have had the highest level of development and border provinces such as Sistan Baluchestan, Hormozgan, and Kurdistan were at a low level of development. Also, considering the inequality index, inequality between central provinces was more than the inequality between border provinces. In addition, during the years 2006 to 2016, the level of development and inequality in the provinces of the country had been decreasing.

Food security is the first step and cornerstone of maintaining the intellectual, mental, physical and vital health of the society, so that the people of the society can perform their duties effectively in the economic, cultural, political and social fields.The quality of people’s lives is an important index for evaluating the economic development in any country, and a lot of factors including nutrition levels and food security have significant roles in measuring the quality. Based on this, the food security of 19266 rural households in Iran’s provinces and the effects of the qualitative and quantitative variables on it, have been evaluated. To achieve this, the effect of these factors on prevalence of food security in a family has been identified by using the Calorie consumption index and application of the generalized ordered Logit model. The results indicated that 76% of the rural households had food security and only 24% have experienced food insafety. Also, the variables of the number of literate members of the household, the age of the guardian, the status of the guardian's education, the job and marriage of the guardian, having a personal home, home infrastructure, personal car and family dimensions have a significant effect on food insecurity. Also, Kerman province has the highest food security and Kermanshah has the lowest food security in terms of calorie consumption. Since two high-risk groups from the point of calorie intake have been recognized in the society, it’s suggested to apply right targeted policies for balancing these two groups and changing consumption patterns.

Crime data in Iran, especially property ‎crime, have an increasing trend since the late 2000s. The ‎purpose of this study is analysis of economic and social factors affecting crime based on rational choice ‎and social structure theories. Due to the limitation of crime data, robbery is considered as one of ‎the most important forms of property crime. The main difference of this study with previous ‎empirical studies is to investigate the effect of social variables such as prevalence rates of ‎addiction, divorce and education, as well as the effect of business cycles and government ‎spending on crime rates. The provincial panel data method was used to estimate the research ‎model over the period 2008-2016. ‎The results showed that the rate of robbery has a negative and significant relationship with ‎economic variables such as per capita income and a positive and significant relationship with ‎inflation and poverty and youth unemployment. Also, counter-cyclical behavior of robbery in ‎the country is confirmed. Other findings of the study show a negative and significant ‎relationship between the rate of robbery and the ratio of government expenditure to GDP. Also, ‎the negative relationship of the composite index of unemployment rate and education indicates ‎the dominant effect of education in crime debate. The results of the study recognize the positive and ‎significant relationship between the prevalence rate of addiction and divorce rate with robbery. Addiction reduces the opportunity to participate in the legal labor market, and divorce can have severe social and psychological consequences.

Having the portfolio of accessible assets is one of the main strategies and one of the central goals of the banks and financial institutions. Risk and return are two determinants of assets selection. The Banks such as all of the oder financial institutions are looking to select the portfolio of assets with the least risk and maximum return over time and under different economic conditions. This study try to find the evidence in order to banks are changing their portfolio in different economic condition and how their optimal portfolio is and how much they are affected by economic conditions. In fact, the main question is whether the banks are stuck in the asset and do not react in different economic conditions or have the necessary flexibility. For this purpose, the data of Tejarat Bank's is useng from the bank's balance sheet during the period 2001-2018. The research findings show that Tejarat Bank's asset portfolio has reacted to economic conditions in the period under review. During the low economic growth growh, the bank's asset portfolio hnstead during economic low growh had less risk and higher returns.

While most policymakers and economists agree that the global financial crisis will have adverse consequences for the global economy as a whole, relatively little empirical work has been done to examine the effects of the financial crisis on macro variables and the real sector of the Iranian economy. In this paper, we aim to examine the effect of the financial crisis on the economies of Iran (as a relatively closed economy) and Turkey (as a relatively open economy) in the framework of the new Keynesian school, using the two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. For this purpose, using the parameters estimated by Bayesian method during the period 1998:1 to 2017: 4, the effects of the global financial crisis on the economies of Iran and Turkey have been analyzed separately through the application of five shocks: monetary policy, investment, productivity in tradable and non-tradable goods and risk premium to the world economy. Then, the response of important macroeconomic variables of Iran and Turkey to these shocks such as GDP, consumption, inflation, investment, and net exports and the components of each of these variables are simulated. According to the findings of this study, both the economies of Iran and Turkey are affected by the crisis, but the severity of the impact of the Iranian economy is less than the Turkish economy due to its less economic relationship with the world, but the persistence of the impact of shocks on the Iranian economy is greater than the Turkish economy.

The term of trade’s shocks, as one of the main sources of economic fluctuations in developing economies and affecting macroeconomic variables, including private saving, is one of the important factors determining of capital formation and economic growth and development of countries. Iran is one of the countries that accounts for a large part of its export revenues from the export earnings of oil resources. Therefore, considering the dependence of Iranian economy on oil revenues and the important role of private saving in economic growth and development of the country, consideration of the factors affecting private saving , including the effect of term of trade volatility, is of great importance .Few studies have been conducted on the effect of term of trade’s shocks on private on saving, to date, no study has been carried out on the issue in Iran Therefore, the present study uses the time series data of 1360 to 1396 to study the effect of term of trade fluctuations on private saving in Iran. In this study using GARCH model, the amount of fluctuations of the country's term of trade relationship has been achieved for these years. And the effect of the effect of term of trade’s shocks on private on saving using the ARDL and Error Correction Model self-explanatory pattern. In order to study the stability of the model's coefficients, Cumulative Residual Tests (CUSUM) and Cumulative Waste Squares (CUSUMQ) have been used The results revealed that show a negative relationship between effect on the term of trade’s shocks and private saving in the period under study.