فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 147 (زمستان 1398)

Given the importance of financial development to achieve sustainable economic growth, the main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of economic openness (financial and trade openness) on financial development (with emphasis on institutional components) in two groups of oil and non-oil developing countries. In this regard, the Panel ARDL method has been used for the period 2000-2017. The estimated results indicate a positive and significant effect of financial openness on financial development in the oil developing countries and its negative and significant impact on financial development of the non-oil developing countries in the long run. Also, the results show that trade openness has a significant and positive effect on financial development in non-oil developing countries in the long run. While the relationship of trade openness with financial development is statistically meaningless in the oil developing countries. Furthermore, most of the institutional variables in the developing countries have played a positive role in promoting the financial development index in the short-term and long-term. Nevertheless, the effect of these variables on financial development in the non-oil developing countries is very limited in the short-run while it is negative in the long-run.

This paper investigates the nonlinear impacts of public debt on economic growth by employing a dynamic panel threshold model. Empirical results for the period 2000-2017 indicate that the threshold level of debt to GDP ratio is about 94 percent for 34 high-income countries. The empirical findings also indicate that the debt ratio has a significantly negative impact on economic growth before and after the estimated threshold level, with a much stronger impact after the estimated threshold level. In other words, the regime of the impact of debt on economic growth has changed when the debt ratio has exceeded the 94% threshold level, and since then the increase in debt has had a more negative effect on economic growth. So, one percent increase in the debt ratio in the low debt ratio regime has led to a decrease of 1.018 percent in economic growth, and in the high debt ratio regime has caused a decrease of 4.265 percent in economic growth.

The aim of this study is to present two time-series forecasting models and combine these models to provide a short-term prediction for hourly electricity demand, using daily electricity consumption data for the period 2006-2011. The first model is based on the decomposition of the electricity load into deterministic and stochastic components and the second model is based on the assumption that the electricity load is a stochastic time series. Once the hourly demand for electricity load is predicted using the above-mentioned models, the performance of the combined model is compared with the two time-series models and also with the dispatching unit model (a multi-variable model in which the weather variable is also included). The results show that the use of the combined model leads to an increase in prediction accuracy over the two time-series models. Moreover, the accuracy of the combined model is as good as the dispatching unit model for most of the time during the day, and even better during the consumption peak hours.

Inequality in global wealth distribution has led to a growing gap between developing and developed countries with regards to income levels, consumption rates, and living standards. In view of that, the difference between these two groups of countries in terms of levels of knowledge and technology infrastructure, human capital, and innovation-based production has been cited as the main reason for inequality in the distribution of global wealth. The present study examines the effect of knowledge components on the inequality of global wealth distribution in the selected leading countries in science, implementing the approach of panel data and the use of generalized moment method for the period 2010-2017. The estimated results demonstrate that the effect of components of economic incentives, institutional regimes, and information and communication technology infrastructure on the inequality of global wealth distribution for the selected countries is negative and significant. Nonetheless, the effect of components of the innovation system, education, and development of human resources on the inequality of global wealth distribution is positive and significant. In addition, the effect of control variables, such as main globalization index and economic globalization, on the inequality of global wealth distribution for the selected countries is positive and significant; Also, the effect of social globalization and political globalization on the inequality of global wealth distribution is not significant.

The purpose of this article is to estimate the income elasticity and tax capacity of Khuzestan province for policy-making and regional planning based on tax pay ability. To this end, the direct and indirect tax revenues of the province were estimated using the Seemingly Unrelated Equations approach, for the period 2000- 2014. The results show that the direct and indirect tax revenue elasticity of Khuzestan province is 1.09 and 2.77 respectively, and the elasticity of total tax revenue is 1.34. In addition, as for the direct tax, the tax elasticity of wealth and real estate is greater than the tax elasticity of businesses and corporations. The findings also indicate that the tax capacity of the provincechr('39')s businesses has a positive and significant relationship with the value-added of the restaurant and hotel sector as well as per capita income. Furthermore, the relationship between corporate tax capacity and value-added services is positive and significant. Likewise, the relationship between the tax capacity of other direct taxes (wealth and real estate) with real value-added and economic growth is positive and significant, and the relationship between the tax capacity of indirect taxes with private consumption expenditures and value-added of the mining sector is positive and significant.

Trips are an inseparable aspect of our lives, and nowadays their purposes have been changed and their number has increased. Most of the trips are done by cars, which make lots of harmful influences on our environment (such as pollution, global warming, and lack of energy sources), and they also bring about negative impacts on the economy and society. In order to have sustainable development, transportation managers should make long-term investments and policies on public transportation and active travel modes. In view of that, in addition to socio-economic variables and attributes of trips, we investigate the effect of latent psychological variables such as attitude, perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, and intention on escorting elementary school trips by employed parents. For this purpose, we analyzed and modeled the data of 4000 questionnaires filled by the parents of students of Tehran’s schools. Results obtained from estimating and calibrating the ordered and multinomial Logit models, show that the variables of perceived distance to school, children age, frequency of using the car to school, similarity between start time, and route travel in work and educational trips, intention, perceived behavioral control, existence of a proper person in the family for escorting children, suitable evaluation of one other person in family by parent and choosing public mode in case of similarity between start time, and  route travel in work and educational trips in both models were statistically significant. Therefore, we can increase motivation by carrying out programs such as: explaining the importance of environmental and traffic issues, encouraging students and parents to do Supervisional Walking Bus (SWB), building residential settlements near parents’ office and students school, creating safe routes for walking and cycling and increasing the safety of neighborhoods; these programs can increase the probability of using active modes by students.