فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 68 (بهار 1400)

This paper aims to model total electricity demand (incremental) in order to estimate price and income elasticities using provincial data and the spatial panel data method. Electricity demand at the province level is influenced by climatic zones, which can be divided into temperate, cold and sub-tropical. This paper uses time series data for electricity demand in Iran’s 28 provinces, taking into account climatic factors as well as income and price elasticities.  We use Elhorst methodology and likelihood-ratio test to compare spatial patterns in order to select the best method compatible with the theoretical model. The results indicate a  price elasticity of electricity demand (-0.08), cross elasticity of electricity demand (-0.6565), income elasticity (0.11) and elasticity of demand to temperature changes (1.9). In other words, electricity demand is minimally sensitive to changes in electricity prices and natural gas prices and income, but sensitive to changes in temperature (elastic). Our cross elasticities and income elasticity indicate that electricity and natural gas are substitutes for each other and can be considered essential goods based on their income elasticity.

This study identifies affecting determinants in the marketing of Iranian crude oil. The research methodology is qualitative and quantitative simultaneously. The statistical sample includes experts, senior and executive managers, marketing directors, and the Information Systems Department of the National Iranian Oil Company. Data is collected through qualitative interviews and quantitative questionnaires. Using CVR and CVI coefficients, the data is validated. The reliability of the questionnaire is examined by Cronbachchr('39')s Alpha where the obtained scores are higher than 0.7. The Grounded Theory is employed for qualitative analysis, descriptive statistics i.e. mean and variance for quantitative analysis, and inferential statistics (Pearson correlation and path analysis) to test the hypotheses. Under the countrychr('39')s current petroleum industry condition, "marketing" is regarded as equal to "sales" and marketing-related departments are mainly involved with contracting and selling petroleum i.e. post-marketing stages. Managers in marketing and selling believe that due to the special characteristics of the petroleum market, such as limited supply and well-known customers, there is no need for marketing Iranian crude oil. However, due to the oil marketchr('39')s unprecedented implications and the increasing competition of the worldchr('39')s oil defectors under sanctions, research to find new markets, keeping current customers, and reaching better agreements is essential.

Since the national wealth of oil-rich countries including Iran is connected to petroleum resources, these countries attempt to make their fiscal regimes and licensing system more attractive to international oil companies and investors. On the oil company side risks and uncertainties in oil and gas exploration and production are important challenges when deciding between different projects. This paper identifies the uncertainties and risks present in all stages of an oil and gas development project. Each of the identified risks is quantified using sensitivity analysis. Comparing contractual parameters of Iranian Petroleum Contracts with those of Iran’s buy back contract and other selected oil contract models in the Middle East including Qatar’s production sharing agreement and Iraq’s technical service contract, the paper proposes some changes to the contractual parameters of the Iranian Petroleum Contract. We notice that the amended contract reduces risks both for investing company and IranAfter applying the mentioned amendments, the standard deviation measured for the financial indicators of both the government and the investor was reduced confirming the reducing of contractual risks and improving the contract performance for both parties. In addition, all persons involved in preparation and implementation of Iranian petroleum contract whether as the first or the second party agree with the proposed amendments.

This study presents a strategic viewpoint of the dynamic growth pattern of Iran’s share in regional natural gas trade, through factor prioritization, using network analysis. The study is an exploratory one, which falls under the cross-sectional category based on its research method and time frame for gathering pertinent data. This study has been conducted over the period 2019 to 2020. The main means of data gathering are semi-structured interviews, the Dematel questionnaire, and the Analytical Network Process. The statistical population of this study includes experts in theory (university professors) and experts in practice (managers of the National Iranian Gas Company). 15 qualified experts were selected for this study through non-probabilistic purposeful sampling methods, and the research indicators were identified using qualitative data analysis methods. Subsequently, considering the mutual impact among the main criteria and the sub-criteria, the Dematel method was used to determine the relationship pattern(s).  The ANP method was used to rank the strategic factors in the dynamic growth of the share of Iran in gas trade. The results indicate that diplomatic and political factors are the most important factors affecting this share. The development of the necessary technology for converting natural gas to liquid gas (LNG) is the second most important determinant. Additionally, quality of customer relations and long-term plans for exporting gas are also indicators of great importance.

Forecasting crude oil price volatility is an important issues in risk management. The historical course of oil price volatility indicates the existence of a cluster pattern. Therefore, GARCH models are used to model and more accurately predict oil price fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to identify the best GARCH model with the best performance in different time horizons. To achieve the target we forecast the daily and weekly price volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from January 1990 to October 2020 using GARCH single regime (GARCH (1,1), GJR-GARCH, EGARCH, HYGARCH and FIGARCH), and switching regime (MRS-GARCH and MMGARCH)  models.  We then evaluate the accuracy of forecasts resulting from different models with the help of traditional loss functions and at-risk value.  The in-sample results indicate the high accuracy of the MRS-GARCH model in terms of weekly data, but the out-of-sample results show the superiority of single-mode GARCH models. There is thus no uniformly superior procedure for forecasting oil price volatility in different time horizons.  The  evaluation of the forecasting performance of VaR functions shows that switching regime models do not significantly improve the accuracy of forecasts of crude oil price fluctuations.

This research has been done in order to study economic aspects of technological changes in Horizontal Drilling methods especially MRC method in drilling for oil. In order to identify and evaluate related variables in both technological changes and economic indices, we used Vensim software to treat data collected during the time period of 2013 to 2017, in order to capture system dynamics. Data was collected through use of a questionnaire developed in consultation with drilling and economic experts. The study considered many constant variables. The study confirms positive growth in the technological changes of horizontal drilling especially via MRC method which, increased values of economic indices.

In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the effect of energy consumption on environmental pollution in Iran. For this purpose, a basic model (the whole economy) and three sectoral models (household, commercial and public; industry and transportation) has been estimated with an autoregressive distributed lag approach in the period 1971-2017. The results of the model estimation show the long-run total consumption at the whole economy and in the household, commercial and public, industry and transportation sectors, total energy consumption has a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Investigating the effect of electricity energy and non-electricity on carbon dioxide emissions over the whole economy in the long run shows that electricity energy consumption has no significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions; while non-electricity energy consumption has a positive effect on emissions during this period. Also in the household, commercial and public sectors, electricity energy and non-electricity have a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Another result is that electricity energy consumption in industry and transportation sectors has no significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions from these two sectors, while non-electricity energy consumption has a positive effect on emissions from industry and transportation sectors. Also, in terms of the long-run effect size, carbon dioxide emissions respect to energy consumption (total, electricity and non-electricity) across the whole economy and the industry sector is inelastic, in the household, commercial and public sectors is almost unit elasticity; and in the transportation sector is elastic. In terms of electricity energy consumption, the elasticity size was only significant and negative in the household, commercial and public sectors. In terms of non-electricity energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions are inelastic in the whole economy level and sectors, however, in the transportation sector, the elasticity size is more than the other two sectors. For this reason, it is suggested to pay particular attention to the use of renewable energy with less pollution as a suitable alternative to fossil fuels in different economic sectors of the country.

Although solar energy is one of the most important renewable energies in Iran that most areas of the country, especially the Central Desert, have considerable ability to use, but the random nature of this type of energy makes it difficult to predict its output power and may cause problems in the performance of the feed systems. For this reason, the use of energy storage systems for periods of less production than consumption is necessary to balance production and consumption. There are various technologies for solar energy storage, but before using them in Iran it is necessary to examine the capacity of these technologies in Iranian companies and decide on their basis. Absorption capacity is a process that helps organizations and companies in different industries and services to recognize the knowledge or technology and to attract, transfer and exploit it and achieve competitive advantage. In this study, it is tried to investigate the absorption capacity of existing technologies for solar energy storage and to select higher priority transmission technology by Grey Relational Analysis.

Natural gas plays a key role in Iran’s economy and using its shadow price in allocating it to different sectors can lead to optimal use of this resource. This study uses a non-linear input-output model to estimate the shadow price of natural gas in different economic sectors in Iran. The study uses values of the input-output table constructed by the Statistics Center of Iran for the year 2011. Using the non-linear input-output model allows us to simultaneously specify the shadow price of gas in different productive activities. In addition, the model can specify different values for shadow prices of different units of gas consumed by the same activity.  The simultaneity of these two features distinguishes the present study from previous ones conducted in the country. According to our research, the shadow price of gas in productive activities is dependent on the change in outputs stemming from changes in natural gas consumption. However, the shadow price of gas is often neglected in  allocating natural gas to different activities. Except for the production, transmission, and distribution of electricity, the use of natural gas in other activities is profitable with an 11 to 98 percent increase in gas prices.