فصلنامه پژوهش های پولی - بانکی
پیاپی 45 (پاییز 1399)

Empirical evidence shows that the banking crisis is one of the leading causes of economic crises. The occurrence of a banking crisis due to the interconnectedness of the banking network with countrieschr('39') economies makes it very difficult to study and predict them. The research method in this research is applied. The statistical population of the research includes Saderat, Mellat, Tejarat, Eghtesad Novin, Parsian, Pasargad, Sina, Sarmayeh, Karafarin, Hekmat Iranian, Ansar, Shahr, Gardeshgari, Tose Etebari, Saman, Dey is the Khavaremianeh, and Postbank and the research period is from 2007 to 2017. This research has evaluated the banking crisis prediction by simple and dynamic probit panel method in two periods when the first period includes the first and second lags and the second period includes the third and fourth lags. For this purpose, the variables of total stock index, land price index, credit to GDP ratio, leverage, profit, and the capital ratio of each bank, which indicates the state of the countrychr('39')s economy and banks, are used. According to the results, the correct prediction rate in dynamic probit is higher than the simple probit prediction rate, and dynamic probit is more capable of predicting banking crises. On the other hand, the ratio of loans granted by banks to the private sector to GDP and the ratio of leverage have a significant and effective relationship with the probability of a banking crisis in Iran.

Much research has introduced linear or nonlinear models using statistical models and machine learning tools in artificial intelligence to estimate Iranchr('39')s rate of return. The primary purpose of these methods is simultaneously use different independent variables to improve stock return rateschr('39') modeling. However, in predicting the rate of return, in addition to the modeling method, the degree of correlation of the independent variables with each other and, consequently, the biased increase of the model estimators is of particular importance. Hence, in this paper, we perform a concurrent model of decision tree and logistic regression with affective variables simultaneously and then make a nonlinear model of return rate. To evaluate the proposed model, information of 100 companies admitted to the stock exchange during the period 2011 to 2018 is considered. The results of our study show that the proposed hybrid algorithm performs better than competing models.

The issue of late payment of bank debtors and how to deal with it is one of the challenges of usury-free banking. After the the Islamic Revolution, many jurists considered the solution of the penalty for late payment to be haram (forbidden) as being ignorant usury. As a result, the banking system stopped receiving late payment penalties. Elimination of late payment penalties led to the abuse of some bank debtors and damage to the banking system. Hence, the alternative solution, which was approved by the jurists of the Guardian Council of the Constitution, was presented under the title of obligation. According to this solution, the fine amount is included in the form of a condition in the contract, and the debtor agrees to pay an amount to the bank in addition to the principal debt for each day of delay. It was clear that this alternative solution had been devised to avoid bank losses due to late payment. But there was never any dialog of damaging the bank and the possibility of forcing debtors to compensate. It was considered that the bankchr('39')s loss is of non-profit type and non-profit is not a case of loss so that it can be claimed not based on loss. In the present article, which has been prepared by the descriptive-analytical method, the author seeks to prove that non-profit can be considered a loss and attributed to overdue debtors under some conditions. In other words, if there is a suitable interest and the delay in repaying the debt is the exclusive cause of the loss for the bank, the non-profit of the is customarily considered a loss. And it is attributed to the debtor, and he is obliged to compensate for the damage. Also, the provide the exclusive causality of debtors in causing damages to the bank, the statistics published by the Central Bank has been used.

Banking stability in recent years especially after the financial crisis of 2008-2009, has received more and more attention in policymaking. Although competition is a prerequisite for productivity, technological innovation, institutional development, and financial inclusion, the impact of banking competition on financial stability has been the subject of active debate. in this article, the optimal amount of competition and market concentration to maximize the banking industrychr('39')s stability is studied. For testing and estimating the relationship between variables, statistics of 170 countries between 1995 to 2017 and the two-step System of Generalized Method of Moments have been used. An inverse U shape relationship resulted between concentration and stability. As the threshold of 0.18 for the Lerner indicator, stability increases with increasing concentration. A greater concentration than the 0.18 threshold will further aggravate bankschr('39') individual behavior and may be harmful to the stability of the banking industry. But considering institutional quality makes the relationship between focus and stability U-shaped. After the threshold of the interaction variable of institutional quality and market power, increasing market power increases stability.

Double-digit inflation has been one of the problems of Iranchr('39')s economy in recent decades that policymakers have not been able to solve. The continuation of high inflation has raised the issue of reforming the national currency. The experiences of countries that have reformed their currencies show that this policy alone has little effect and its success requires other measures. In this paper, eight effective variables in controlling inflation are introduced as economic reforms and using sequential probit model, the effect of changes in these variables on inflation is measured. The sample used in the study includes 61 currency modifications by 48 countries in the period 1980-2018. The results of these estimates show that out of the eight proposed modifications used in the model, five of them have significant effects on inflation. In other words, countries that have implemented these five economic reforms before eliminating zero from their currency have been successful in implementing this policy. Another important consequence is the cessation of the effectiveness of these reforms in controlling inflation. The proposed package of articles obtained from the results of the estimates includes the independence of the central bank, the reduction of the government budget deficit, the reduction of market exchange rate fluctuations, the increase of the GDP growth rate, and the reduction of the net government debt to the banking system.

Financial frictions inducted in the model is a new contribution to monetary economics. Herein, an analytical tool arranges monetary policymaking in the form of two steps procedure. In the first step, an appropriate amount of money supply should be assessed; and in the second step, that appropriate amount should be allocated to several sectors. The Central Bank obligates the step of assessment and entrusts to the Board of Professional Banks the allocating step; this way provides more efficiency since the professional banks in comparison to the central bank have more and better information about economic sectors. According to Arrowchr('39')s theorem, in allocating, rationality arises because collective decision-making happens in this step. The mathematical proposition about this policymaking narrates the dilemma of policymaking: two-step monetary policymaking makes better efficiency but worse rationality. The results show that Arrowchr('39')s theorem contributions prove that the proposition is correct and this paper presents three approaches to get out from this dilemma of policymaking.