نشریه آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
پیاپی 2 (پاییز 1399)

Due to the uncertainties of the futures study and scenario planning to achieve renewable sources such as wind energy and solar energy, this research is intended to design different scenarios using two indicators of technology and economics. A matrix was formed on the basis of these two indicators, and four scenarios of renewables industry in Iran were explained. In this framework, Iranian technology can vary in the spectrum between being pioneers to being followers. Economic foundations and economic policies can change from fossil fuels to green fuels (based on renewable technologies). These four scenarios are as follows: “Rotten fossil”, such as the situation of Iran's economy which is dependent on oil, and its macro policy in technology which is being followers. “Gold seekers”, which is the case when the economy is dependent on oil, but the country is in advanced case in terms of technology. “Clean money”, designating that Iran's economy is known as green economy, but in terms of technology, it follows others. “Green movement”, introducing a scenario in which the economy is flourishing and at the same time technology policy makes Iran an advanced country in this case.

As the intellectual institutions of the societies, universities and higher education institutions of the world, especially of Iran, firstly need to identify trends in future changes, and secondly, direct plans toward a model of futurology and strategic foresight. The point arising here relates to the question of what the future scenarios of the universities of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be in the perspective of 1404 (2025). This is an applied research following futures study method that contains review of resources, scenario writing through critical uncertainty approach, and expert panel. Four scenarios were finally proposed as future scenarios of the university including exclusive competition market: universities as interactive creators institutions for training common people, and universities as interactive institutions for training elites; competition free market: universities as core institutions for training elites; uncompetitive market: the university as a nuclear and elite institution; exclusive demanded multilateral market: universities as the main institute and common people trainers.

Recent global and regional developments indicate that Iran is not supposed to be unconcerned about the fate of the Shiites and must play a role in this regard. A geopolitical consideration of the issues relating to Iran and Shiism denote that any action in Iran - as the main center of the Shiism- affects the Shiite communities under the influence of Iran. This research is intended to investigate the trends governing the future of the Shiite world. This research is conducted by trend analysis and tries to investigate the social, economic, technological, and political trends that govern the Shiite world. The results of studying the current economic, technological, political and social trends in the world, especially in Islamic countries, indicate that the world has encountered deep and dramatic changes.  The results also demonstrate the formation of a new Shiite geography in the world. The key trends in the Shiite world, from changing of economic powers to population growth, and from the emergence of mass media and from the development of social networks to the transformation of political structures, all of which may shape the future of the Shiites in the West Asia (the Middle East) and the world, will face a complex and unpredictable future.

Religion is one of the oldest and the most role playing foundation in human societies, especially in Iran, which has gone through various stages throughout history. Religious life contains a special position in the doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and encompasses one of the main current concerns in the future of religion in the post-Corona world. This study tries to consider the changes occurring in the religious life of Iranian society caused by the Corona pandemic in the world. This is an analytical-descriptive research. The events and changes which have taken place in Iranian society at this era have resulted in new and different alternative in the field of religion. These changes will lead the religious life of the Iranian society through a path directed to  outcomes that are going to happen in the possible scenarios in the future of the religious life in the post-Corona community. The suggestion of changing the religious life paradigm by increasing religious rationality, as well as developing religious rituals will protect the social religious life against the challenges and crises, and we can expect a reasonable and stable religious life in Iranian society.

This research is intended to assess the resistive economy approach in the country and the role it can play in people's lifestyle and social security order and authority for the future. An important axes of the resistive economy contains the reduction of dependencies and emphasizes on the advantages of domestic production and struggles for self-sufficiency. In this regard, supporting national production and protecting internal labor and capital along with increasing the security and social order and authority of the country can be effective in the future of people’s lifestyle. The methodology of this research is based on three axes of data collection, scientific analysis and comparative studies. Hence, this qualitative research follows discourse analysis method. The results revealed that resistive economy following an educational approach conveys a concept that may encounter problems with regard to the security-educational sector of the society in the future due to its attempt to follow resilience, crisis control, and reviving the current worn-out structures and institutions. Hence, it is suggested that institutionalizing various aspects of the security of the resistive economy in the future, prioritization of domestic products, controlling corruption in trade by proper policy-making and culturalization, the future lifestyle of people can be changed and improved by focusing on the resistive economy in the long run. This will lead the country toward perfection and its goals expressed in the vision document will be achieved.

Activities of futures study are used for a better assessment of the opportunities and threats and a precise identification of important current and future issues. Monitoring future issues can help recognize and understand current and future changes.  Awareness of emerging problems, directed signals and surprises pave the way for futures study and forecasting. Meanwhile, observations of future is introduced as a tool to discover, analyze and give meaning to these issues for providing the necessary data needed for futures study. The future observation approach is presented to assist policymakers and make decision-makers ready to deal with unexpected and emergent changes by constant and in-depth study and analysis of emerging issues. Various mixed models of future prediction have been tested and utilized. This research has been conducted by library and documentary method. The goals, issues, prerequisites and methods of this approach in the field of observation are analyzed. Finally, the suggested 8-step trend is presented to be employed in the Iranian futures study centers.