نشریه آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
پیاپی 1 (تابستان 1399)

Security threats are a major issue at the moment of the Islamic Revolution. Threats, not in the war, but in other economic, cultural, social, environmental and technological areas. Predicting international threats and adapting them to the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran can be effective in countering security threats in the coming years. What are the policies and strategies for dealing with those threats in the future? "What is the Macro History of World Security Trends?" The present study, which consists of macro-long-term and long-term security trends, is from the perspective of applied and descriptive-analytical method and is based on trend analysis and comparative study. Finally, a panel of experts has been formulated to provide policies and operational strategies tailored to contain trends with a normative approach and a backward approach. By formulating macro trends in research literature and by looking back on the set of desirable prospects of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the field of world security trends in the horizon of 2025, it has been presented and presented. Then, according to the perspective statement, four major goals are formulated. These goals demonstrate the comprehensiveness of looking at security and its subdivisions or areas of expertise. After a thorough review of the global security threat trends and a comparative review of the Islamic Republic of Iran, finally 9 axes, 17 policies and 35 strategies to address future security threats were put forward.

Futures studies as a new and influential area of decision-making is considered a distinct from public policy and strategic sciences; so, in this area, it requires clear and concise criteria for accurate identification of research addressed as much as possible in this research. The present study seeks to extract the key elements of the quality of researches of futures studies in order to provide a reliable framework for evaluating the quality of futures studies. After documentary studies and background research in this field, ten real experts and activists in field of futures studies were interviewed. In the first step of the research, after interviewing 10 eligible subjects and analyzing the interview through content analysis method, 135 basic themes were extracted, and finally ten organizer themes were obtained. In the second step, using interpretive structural modeling (ISM) technique, using MATLAB software, the position, the amount of importance, influence and effectiveness (dependency) of the extracted elements were presented at five levels. The recruitment and networking of experts had the most influence, and creating and prescribing alternative futures and creating intercultural knowledge, participation, and stakeholder satisfaction had the least influence.

Crisis management has always been a concern of strategic and foresight researchers from a pragmatic point of view, so the question of research can be expressed in how the interaction and contingency planning of future crisis response programs are addressed. In this regard, the overall goal of the research is to provide an alternative-looking approach and to use foresight tools to arrive at a contingency model for crisis response. The present research strategy is in the framework of qualitative and applied research, and due to the lack of expansion of the existing knowledge in the subject matter, a library approach was used; This study is based on Oucoli and Sabram's (2017) Guide. Silva (2015) research process has been used for comprehensive and correct selection of articles; Silva method consists of 4 stages of planning, selection, extraction and implementation. The research findings were compiled based on answering the systematic review questions of the 54 selected articles; The most cited articles and the most cited authors were collected. These findings have resulted in a six-step contingency model with a consistent strategy and scenario-based approach that includes: scenario, response strategy, implementation plan, support operational plan, contingency plan, and budget.

The purpose of this study was systematic review and meta-analysis of foresight science, technology and innovation research in Iran and other countries. In this qualitative meta-analysis, the research community included all articles, theses and keyword-related books in line with the purpose of the research. To accomplish the goals of the present research, first use keywords with the goals set in internal and external information sources between 2000 and 2019 with keywords foresight, science and technology, as well as search based on citations of research papers. This area was named Search. In the second stage, screening and selection of the desired researches were carried out using the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Finally, after screening and selecting the desired articles, qualitative meta-analysis was conducted to answer the questions and analyze the findings. A total of 33 research papers were analyzed and evaluated in the present study. 84.84% of the research articles, 6.06% of the conference papers, 6.06% of the research projects and 3.03 were dissertations. Also, most of the studies were done 45.45% in the period 2015-2019. In addition, 80 80.76 male and 19.23% female researchers were involved in the research, of which 71.25% were faculty members. Also 33.33% of the researches used quantitative method, 60.60% qualitative method and 9.09% used mixed method.

Given the need for future research and future cognition as well as initiative, researchers need to know what the future of organizations will be. Given this necessity, the present study explored the area of organizational learning capability in the future of the organization in order to form a more efficient and effective management organization. One of the most important aspects of future organizational research is organizational learning capability. Given the issues raised in relation to the future and the necessity for examining organizational learning capability, the future study of organizational learning capability should be addressed. Research Method The research is descriptive and analytical. In this study, according to the viewpoints of academic and documentary and library studies professors, as well as reviewing the opinions, interviews and views of experts, different aspects of future organizational learning capability have been investigated. These dimensions represent the needs of the organization in the future and they should plan their future according to these dimensions. To confirm the dimensions specified in the research method of this research, a questionnaire was used in a limited statistical population to collect data. Finally, based on the complementary survey of participants' views on the questionnaire, it can be concluded that future organizational learning capability has 7 dimensions. Also, the most important aspect is the testing and openness dimension, which has the highest priority for the attention of senior managers of the organization. Finally, the concluding section of the futures model derived from this study is drawn.

Time is continuous, linear, unidirectional, and irreversible. Events take place before and after each other, and the continuum determines the past, present and future. The method of data collection is based on document retrieval based on library method. This study has attempted to compile all the Latin books thoroughly, comparing the differences and benefits of each with a comparison of all prominent European and American scholars (about 130 authors) and comparing them with Iranian scholars. Data collection in qualitative research is as follows: interviews, observations and documents. The type of research is fundamental. Time in Futures Studies The three elements of the past include the present, the present, and the future. According to this principle, the past no longer happens and the future does not exist. The concept of futurology refers to each person's understanding of the past and present, and applies knowledge to solve societal problems. Since the term futurism has the concept of feasibility, it must therefore provide a strategy that deals with the amount of time that is identified and analyzed. Structuralism in cognitive time follows a regulated intellectual attitude.