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بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک - سال هفدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 62، تابستان 1400)

فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
سال هفدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 62، تابستان 1400)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1400/04/27
  • تعداد عناوین: 9
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  • عباس مصلی نژاد* صفحات 1-26

    رقابت و تنش های سال های اخیر عربستان سعودی و قطر، موضوعی ریشه دار بوده که نباید دلایل آن را صرفا در مسایل هویتی، ایدیولوژیکی و سیاسی جستجو کرد. مهمترین وجه رقابتهای این دو کشور ناشی از انگیزه های ژیوپلیتیکی متاثر از پویایی هایی ژیواکونومیکی است. اولین نشانه این رقابت ها از سال 1995 و در نتیجه اختلافات طولانی بر سر منابع گاز طبیعی به وجود آمد. از همان زمان گاز طبیعی به عنوان مهمترین پیشرانه رقابتهای دو کشور محسوب شده است. سوال اصلی این مقاله چگونگی اثرگذاری مولفه های ژیواکونومیکی در رقابتهای قطر و عربستان است و از این رو با استفاده از روش توصیفی و تحلیلی و تکیه بر منابع کتابخانه ای و بررسی تمام اطلاعات در دسترس در پی تبیین ژیواکونومیکی رقابتهای عربستان و قطر از منظر اقتصاد سیاسی به عنوان یکی از پایه های اصلی تحلیل مناسبات ژیوپلیتیکی است. نتایج نشان می دهد، ابعاد مختلف رقابتهای ژیواکونومیکی قطر و عربستان را می توان در مسایلی چون کنش های منطقه ای رقابت گازی عربستان و قطر، کنشهای بین المللی رقابت گازی قطر و عربستان، رقابت در سرمایه گذاری های بین المللی، رقابت خطوط هواپیمایی و توریسم، رقابت در حوزه رسانه ای و رقابت های ورزشی دسته بندی کرد.

    کلیدواژگان: ژئوپلیتیک، ژئواکونومی، اقتصاد سیاسی، عربستان، قطر
  • ابوالفضل کاوندی کاتب*، محمدرضا حافظ نیا صفحات 27-61

    سازماندهی سیاسی فضا، فرآیند تقسیم و مرزبندی پهنه سرزمینی با هدف مدیریت بهینه سیاسی فضاست. هدف این مقاله تبیین استراتژی ملی کشورها در سازماندهی و مدیریت سیاسی فضای آنهاست. ایجاد و تغییر در سازماندهی و مدیریت سیاسی فضا، از الگوهای مختلفی پیروی می کند و اولین سطح، اهمیت بیشتری دارد. مقاله با این پرسش روبه روست: تغییرات در سطح اول سازماندهی سیاسی فضا در کشورهای جهان، طی سال های 1960 تا 2020 میلادی چه وضعیتی را پشت سر گذاشته و چه عواملی در آن تاثیرگذار بوده اند؟ روش تحقیق توصیفی- تحلیلی، منابع کتابخانه ای و از نرم افزارهای EXCEL و SPSS در مباحث آماری استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد، استراتژی کشورها در سازماندهی و مدیریت سیاسی فضا از سه الگوی افزایش، کاهش و ثابت در تعداد استان ها پیروی می کند. پنج عامل جمعیت، وسعت، تولید ناخالص داخلی، شاخص توسعه انسانی و امنیت، در کنار مسایل جهانی، تاثیرات متفاوتی در تغییرات استانی 191 کشور جهان داشته اند. همچنین کشورهایی که تغییرات کمتری در سازماندهی سیاسی فضای جغرافیایی داشته اند، موفقیت بیشتری در دستیابی به اهداف مدیریت سیاسی فضا کسب کرده اند.

    کلیدواژگان: سازماندهی سیاسی فضا، مدیریت سیاسی فضا، تقسیمات کشوری، جهان و ایران
  • مرتضی قورچی*، سپیده السادات موسویان صفحات 62-91

    امروزه بسیاری از نظریه پردازان مباحث جهانی شدن و شبکه شهرهای جهانی تاکید دارند که در متن اقتصاد جهانی پسافوردیسم شهرها به عنوان گره های شبکه ها و بازیگران جدید عرصه بین الملل به همکاری و رقابت می پردازند. از همین منظر معتقدند که این شهرهای جهانی هستند که در آینده جای حکومت - ملت پایه را خواهد گرفت. از طرف دیگر جغرافی دانان سیاسی در جهان معتقدند که شهرها نه تنها جای حکومت - ملت پایه ها را نخواهند گرفت بلکه حکومت ملت پایه ها نقش و کارکردهای جدیدی را در جهانی شدن می یابند. این مقاله بر روی این موضوع تاکید دارد که کدهای ژیوپلیتیکی کشورها به فعالیت های شهرهای یک کشور در سه سطح در مقیاس فراملی تاثیرگذار است و شهرهای هر کشوری با توجه به کدهای ژیوپلیتیکی همان کشور در این سه سطح محلی، منطقه ای، جهانی می توانند در فضای فراملی وارد شده و به رقابت و تعامل با سایر شهرها بپردازند. در این میان کدهای ژیوپلیتیکی کشور ایران و چالش آن ها با کدهای ژیوپلیتیکی ایالات متحده سبب شده است تا ایران همواره جهت ورود به فضای جریان ها با مشکلات گسترده ای در عرصه بین الملل مواجه شود و کلان شهرهای آن نیز که از ظرفیت های جهان شهری و حضور در شبکه جهان شهرها برخوردار می باشند، نتوانند هم چون سایر کلان شهرهای همتای خود در منطقه از فضای جهانی شدن معاصر بهره برداری نمایند. این مقاله با رویکردی اسنادی تحلیلی به دنبال بررسی تعاملات فضای جریان ها بر اساس منطق کدهای ژیوپلیتیکی می باشد و فرصت ها و محدودیت های کلان شهرهای ایران را با تکیه بر کدهای ژیوپلیتیکی مورد بررسی قرار خواهد داد.

    کلیدواژگان: جهانی شدن، فضای جریان ها، کدهای ژئوپلیتیکی، شبکه جهان شهرها، کلان شهرهای ایران
  • یاشار ذکی*، اکبر حمیدی صفحات 92-118

    رود ارس در طول تاریخ زمینه ساز تنش و نیز همکاری میان چندین کشور بوده است. این ناحیه با بیش از چهار صد کیلومتر مرز بین المللی مشترک با کشورهای آذربایجان، ارمنستان، جمهوری خودمختار نخجوان و ترکیه، داشتن چهار شهرستان و هفت شهر مرزی با ظرفیت های بالای طبیعی، ژیوکالچری، ژیواکونومیکی و ژیوپلیتیکی از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است. هدف پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی و تحلیل مولفه های موثر بر امنیت ناحیه مرزی ارس است. روش پژوهش، تحلیلی توصیفی و نوع تحقیق بنیادی کاربردی است. نتایج نشان می دهد که مولفه های اصلی در شش دسته عمده تقسیم شدند که به طور کلی 60 درصد مولفه های موثر بر امنیت ناحیه مرزی رود ارس را شناسایی و تبیین می کنند: مولفه نظامی انتظامی (600/12)؛ مولفه جغرافیایی (068/24)؛ مولفه نهادی مدیریتی و زیست محیطی (059/35)؛ مولفه ژیوکالچری (085/44)؛ مولفه ژیواکونومیکی (522/52)؛ و مولفه ژیوپلیتیکی (338/60). بنابراین، مولفه های ژیوکالچری، ژیوپلیتیکی و ژیواکونومیکی تاثیرگذارترین مولفه ها بر امنیت ناحیه مرزی ارس محسوب می شوند

    کلیدواژگان: امنیت، ژئوپلیتیک، نواحی مرزی، تحلیل عاملی، رود ارس
  • سیده سارا موسوی، مسعود غفاری*، شهروز شریعتی صفحات 119-148

    خنثی سازی ژیوپلیتیک ایران به ویژه طی دو دهه گذشته و از طریق اجرای پروژه هایی نظیر «ترانس خزر»، «تاپی» و خط لوله «حبشان- الفجیره» در جوار مرزهای ایران هر کدام به طریقی از اهمیت ژیوپلیتیک و ترانزیتی ایران کاسته است. گسترش همکاری های اقتصادی چین و ترکیه در سال های اخیر را می توان به مثابه کوششی جدید برای خنثی سازی ژیوپلیتیکی ایران برشمرد. اتصال دو پروژه «کمربند و راه» دولت چین و «کریدور میانی» ترکیه طی سال های اخیر زمینه نزدیکی بیشتر دو کشور را بیش از پیش فراهم ساخته است و به نظر می رسد نزدیکی بیشتر چین و ترکیه می تواند به افزایش خطر خنثی سازی ژیوپلیتیکی ایران منجر شود. این مقاله در پی پاسخ به این پرسش است که افزایش همکاری های چین و ترکیه چه تاثیری بر موقعیت و جایگاه ژیوپلیتیکی ایران خواهد داشت؟ و به روش «رویداد پژوهی» این فرضیه را مورد آزمون قرار می دهد که اتصال پروژه «کمربند و راه» با پروژه «کریدور میانی»، خطر خنثی سازی ژیوپلیتیکی ایران را تشدید می کند

    کلیدواژگان: ایران، چین، ترکیه، کریدور میانی، کمربند و جاده
  • جواد اطاعت، حسن کریمی* صفحات 149-181

    اخوان المسلمین نام یک جنبش سیاسی - اجتماعی است که در سال 1928 م. توسط حسن البناء در مصر ایجاد شد. اخوان المسلمین از بدو تاسیس به پیروی از آموزه های حسن البنا، به دنبال برقراری حکومت اسلامی در مصر است. این جنبش پس از سال ها مبارزه، با وجود موفقیت نسبی که در سال های دهه 1980 م. بدست آورد و توانست به پارلمان مصر راه یابد، نتوانست به هدف خود دست یابد. اخوان در دوران حکومت حسنی مبارک نحوه شرکت درانتخابات پارلمانی را مشی سیاسی خود قرار داد و پس از مدتی به قیام مردم مصر علیه حسنی مبارک در آغاز سال 2011م. پیوست. انقلاب مصر (2011م.) فرصت مناسبی بود تا اخوان به هدف خود برسد، اما در سال 2013م. شکست خورد. این مقاله با روش توصیفی، تحلیلی به دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که عوامل شکست اخوان المسملین در مصر چه بود؟ و در این راستا با استفاده از مناقشه ساختار -کارگزار این فرضیه را مطرح کرده است که مجموعه ای از عوامل ساختاری، عملکرد نامناسب جماعت اخوان و گروه های سیاسی به علاوه دخالت قدرت های منطقه ای و فرامنطقه ای موجب شکست اخوان المسلمین در سال 2013م. گردید. یافته های این پژوهش حاکی از آن است که در سه مقیاس محلی، ملی و منطقه ای وجود احزاب رقیب، فقدان رهبری معنوی، ناکارآمدی قانون اساسی، ناتوانی دولت در تحقق وعده های خود به مردم ، اتحاد مخالفان علیه اخوان، دشمنی ارتش با انقلابیون، مخالفت الازهر و دستگاه قضایی مصر با انقلاب و دخالت قدرت های خارجی در زمره عوامل ژیوپلیتیکی بودند که اخوان المسلمین را در مصر به چالش کشیدند. لذا می توان گفت که اخوان با وجود سال ها مبارزه در مصر، به واسطه چالش با احزاب رقیب محلی، نظام حاکم بر مصر و دخالت قدرت های فرامنطقه ای، شایستگی خود را برای ایجاد یک حکومت مدنی در مصر، که تضمین کننده منافع اکثریت باشد را از دست داد

    کلیدواژگان: اخوان المسلمین، انقلاب، مصر، حکومت اسلامی و شکست
  • ناصر هادیان، امیرهوشنگ کریمی* صفحات 182-202

    امروزه ورزش به عاملی تاثیرگذار در جامعه و روابط بین الملل تبدیل شده است و می توان سیاست ورزشی را به عنوان بعدی تازه از سیاست خارجی مورد توجه قرار داد. پرسش محوری این است که کشور چین چگونه توانسته از قدرت نرم ورزش در عرصه بین المللی در راستای اهداف و منافع ژیوپلیتیکی خود بهره برداری نماید. فرضیه پیشنهادی مقاله این است که چین با اتخاذ یک "راهبرد فعال ورزشی"در قالب سیاست خارجی خود توانسته است به خوبی از ظرفیت های بین المللی ورزش برای اهداف ژیوپلیتیکی خود بهره گیری نماید. در این پژوهش با روشی توصیفی- تحلیلی و با بهره گیری از منابع کتابخانه ای به تجزیه و تحلیل نقش و تاثیرات ژیوپلیتیکی ورزش در عرصه بین الملل و مشخصا الگوی چین پرداخته می شود. یافته های پژوهش موید اهمیت خاص ورزش و دیپلماسی ورزشی در راهبرد سیاست خارجی چین و ارتقاء آن تا سطح یک ابزار راهبردی برای بهره برداری ژیوپلیتیکی از آن است. طبق مدل مفهومی طراحی شده کشور چین از طریق دیپلماسی ورزشی فعال میدان بین المللی ورزش را به میدان روابط بین الملل پیوند زده و از سرمایه های این دو میدان برای تحقق اهداف سیاست خارجی خود بهره برداری می نماید

    کلیدواژگان: ورزش، قدرت نرم، ژئوپلیتیک، سیاست خارجی، چین
  • سهراب انعامی علمداری، نوذر شفیعی*، ابراهیم متقی صفحات 203-228

    بازی بزرگ علم مدل سازی از جهان واقعی است و هر نظریه علمی دستگاهی از قاعده ها را برای این بازی تعیین می کند. سیستم های آشوب به عنوان مدل های تحلیلی از ظرفیت نظری- عملی برای تحلیل فرآیندهای واقعی به ویژه در حوزه های راهبردی و ژیوپلیتیکی برخوردار است. نوشتار حاضر به اثبات این ادعا می پردازد که جهان آشوب زده است و امنیت در یک جهان آشوب زده دچار دگردیسی بسیط شده و این پرسش را مطرح می کند که مدل مدیریت آشوب در ژیوپلیتیک جهانی چیست؟ نظام بین الملل کنونی مملو از نشانه های آشوب همچون عدم قطعیت، تداخل و پیش بینی ناپذیری است که می تواند در پیوند با ژیوپلیتیک جهانی نظم برانداز و در عین حال نظم ساز باشد.  در این پژوهش ابتدا تلاش می شود تا با بهره گیری از روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و مدل سازی، مفهوم آشوب تبیین و سپس با پیونددهی نظریه های آشوب و الگوهای تاریخی آن، روند مدیریت آشوب در حوزه های ژیوپلیتیکی مورد بررسی قرار گیرد

    کلیدواژگان: آشوب، نظم در بی نظمی، ژئوپلیتیک، امنیت، مدیریت آشوب
  • زهرا الوندی، مهدی ذاکریان امیری*، سید عبدالعلی قوام، حمید احمدی صفحات 229-254

    لابی گری اسراییل در اتحادیه اروپا متفاوت از ایالات متحده و با اعطای قدرت از سوی نهادهای اتحادیه اروپا در طول بیست سال گذشته توسعه یافته است. روابط ایران و اتحادیه اروپا در هر دوره با برخی چالش های سیاسی نظیر برنامه هسته ای ایران دچار نوسان گردیده است. با توجه به اهمیت اتحادیه اروپا به عنوان یک بازیگر مهم بین المللی، از این رو تاثیر لابی اسراییل بر رفتار سیاست خارجی اتحادیه اروپا در روابطش با ایران به ویژه در برنامه هسته ای آن می تواند حایز اهمیت باشد. روش شناسی این پژوهش به دنبال بررسی تاثیر لابی اسراییل بر روابط ایران و اتحادیه اروپا با تاکید بر برنامه هسته ای ایران و روش توصیفی- تحلیلی می باشد. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد که اسراییل با نفوذ نهادهای خود در پارلمان اروپا از طریق برگزاری نشست، کنفرانس، ملاقات با مقامات اروپایی، مصاحبه و انتشار مقاله و بیانیه علیه ایران توانسته حداکثر بهره وری از محور اختلاف برنامه هسته ای ایران به منظور پیشبرد اهداف خود و کاهش روابط ایران و اتحادیه داشته باشد. کنگره یهودیان اروپا و دوستان اروپایی اسراییل به عنوان مهم ترین نهادهای لابی اسراییل در بروکسل علیه ایران بیش ترین تاثیر را بر روابط ایران - اتحادیه اروپا در حوزه هایی نظیر عدم قالب بندی موافقت نامه جامع همکاری،  تداوم لحن انتقادی اروپا نسبت به برنامه هسته ای و پرهیز سفر مقامات اروپایی به ایران تاثیر داشته است. اسراییل با استفاده از ابزار استراتژیک تبلیغات منفی علیه ایران در قالب ایران هراسی و برجسته نشان دادن برنامه هسته ای ایران به عنوان تهدیدی مخرب در منطقه و سطح بین الملل توانسته با نفوذ در پارلمان اروپا گروه ها و نهادهای لابی در اتحادیه اروپا تشکیل و مقاصد سیاسی و استراتژیکی خود را عملی سازد. مقاله ی حاضر، در پی بررسی تاثیر لابی اسراییل بر روابط ایران و اتحادیه اروپا با تمرکز بر برنامه هسته ای ایران می باشد و تلاش می کند تا به سوال اصلی پاسخ دهد لابی اسراییل با برجسته سازی تهدید برنامه هسته ای ایران برای اروپا در کاهش روابط سیاسی میان ایران و اتحادیه اروپا از طریق افزایش اعمال تحریم های شدید، اقدامات محدودکننده و تداوم لحن انتقادی اروپا در قالب قطعنامه و بیانیه نسبت به برنامه هسته ای ایران تاثیر داشته است

    کلیدواژگان: لابی اسرائیل، جمهوری اسلامی ایران، اتحادیه اروپا، تحریم، برنامه هسته ای ایران
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  • Abbas Mossalanejad * Pages 1-26

    Intrduction:

    The rivalries and tensions between Saudi Arabia and Qatar during the past recent years is a deep-rooted issue the reasons behind which should not be investigated merely in identity, ideological and political issues. The most important aspect of their rivalries arises from the geopolitical motivations arising out of geo-economic dynamics. The first signs of such rivalries emerged back in 1995 as a consequence of long-running disputes over natural gas resources. Since then, natural gas has become a bone of contention and has been regarded as the most important propeller of the rivalries between the two states.

    Methodology

    This article seeks to analyze the rivalries between Qatar and Saudi Arabia from the perspective of political economy in the direction of regional hegemony.By drawing on the descriptive-analytical method, relying on library sources, and surveying the entire information available, the present article aims to provide geo-economic explanations on the Saudi-Qatar rivalries from the political economy perspective as one of the major pillars of analyzing geopolitical relations.

    Finding

    The various dimensions of the Qatari-Saudi Arabia geo-economic competition can be categorized into the following issues: regional actions Saudi-Qatar gas competition, international Qatari-Saudi gas competition international action, international investment competition, airline competition and tourism economy, competition in the field of media and sports competitions.

    Analyses and Conclusion

    The findings of the present study show that the analysis of countries' relations in the world cannot be considered separately from political economy and consequently economic policies. In the same framework and in the form of geopolitical analysis, more accurate analyzes can be achieved by using political economy and geo-economics. In this article, more effort has been made to highlight the analytical framework of political economy during the competitions of different actors at different scales. Thus, the focus was on the competition between Saudi Arabia and Qatar as two rivals in the Arabian Peninsula from a geo-economics perspective

    Keywords: Geopolitics, Geo-economics, Political Economy, Saudi Arabia, Qatar
  • Abolfazl Kavandi Kateb *, MohammadReza Hafeznia Pages 27-61

    Intrduction:

    Political organization of the space is the process of dividing and demarking of the territory corresponding with geographic, political, administrative, economic, security, social and cultural goals. The main goal of political organization of the space is optimal political management of space with optimal effectiveness and minimal damages. The most valuable section of political organization of the space is the state level which is called province, state, region and etc. Change in the different levels of political organization of the space is in the domain of the governments’ authority which occurs considering their policies, strategies, ideologies, security situations and natural and human potentials. At the first step, this article investigates the process of changes in the first level of political organization of the space in the world states during the period 1960-2020. “Whether these changes have the same pattern or not?” is the research question. At the second step, the paper investigates measurement and the effect of five factors including population, area, GDP, human development index and security in changes in first level of political organization of the space in 191 states of the world.

    Methodology

    The research method is descriptive-analytic and data gathering procedure is based on library findings. In statistical section, EXCEL and SPSS will be used.

    Result and Discussion

    The results of the first sections show three different patterns in the number of provinces of states of the world including increase, decrease and without- change patterns. Periodical investigations of political organization of the space in states of the world show that the most changes in the political organization of the first level in the states of the world were occurred during 1990-2005. The results of the second section show different impacts of fivefold factor in the states. In a way that, the states with lowest changes or without changes in political organization of the space have been more successful in reaching their goals in political management of the space.

    Conclusion

    The main approach in this research is creation of civil divisions based on geography and territory, because civil political demarking with geographic, security, demographic and etc goals can bring insatiability, increase in the costs, overgrow of the government body and etc.

    Keywords: Political Organization of the Space, Political Management of the Space, State Divisions, the World, Iran
  • Morteza Ghourchi *, Sepideh Sadat Mousavian Pages 62-91
    Introduction

    According to Castells and Taylor, the world was based on space of places until the early 1970s. In such a context, any international interaction of institutions within the state must be pursued through the government, and the government of each country considers itself responsible for its nation and territory. But today, many theorists of globalization and the global cities network have emphasized in numerous articles that in the context of the post-Fordist global economy, cities are collaborating and competing as nodes of networks and new actors in the international arena. From this perspective, they believe that these are global cities that will replace the nation-state in the future. Political geographers around the world, on the other hand, believe that cities not only will not replace the nation-state, but also the they will find new roles and functions in globalization. This paper based on a historical-analytical approach is surveying space of flows interactions according to the logic of geopolitical codes and tries to clarify and explains Iranian metropolises challenges and opportunities in this context.

    Methodology

    This research method descriptive-analysis with the method of data gathering is based upon library studies and the use of books, articles Seeks to investigate the interactions of space of flows based on the logic of geopolitical codes.

    Results and Discussion

    1. The concept of politics and its relation to geopolitical codes: Geopolitical codes, as a result of the political affairs of countries, determine the ways in which the sovereignty of a country must be maintained or its status and prosperity increased. In this sense, the concept of friend and foe is an important tool of politics in explaining the geopolitical codes of countries in the world system. In this regard, many world leaders, by expressing their geopolitical codes in line with our concept and another in the world of Post-Fordism, prevent the presence of many nodes in the global economy. The geopolitics codes of Iran are in conflict with the codes of the United States of America, which has global geopolitical codes, and thus has created a kind of “us “and “them” in the world system. 2. Diplomacy: City diplomacy has been formed in parallel with the level of government diplomacy between different countries of the world, and today many cities and metropolises around the world use these tools to achieve economic, cultural and social goals in line with their national interests.

    Conclusions

    This research emphasizes that the geopolitical codes of countries affect the activities of cities of a country at three levels on a transnational scale, and the cities of each country according to the geopolitical codes of the same country in these three local, regional and global levels can enter the transnational space and compete and interact with other cities. Iran, with its important features in the arena of world geopolitical rivalries and space of places, has not yet been able to enter into the space of flows and contemporary globalization. For example, with the expansion of the concept of "us" and "the other" as a tool of US politics as a defense mechanism in the global arena, it deals with potential threats in the form of a geopolitical code called the axis of evil. To be present in the world of cities and performance a role in the space of flows as an actor

    Keywords: globalization, Space of flows, Geopolitical Codes, Global Cities Network, Iranian metropolises
  • Yashar Zaki *, Akbar Hamidi Pages 92-118
    Introduction

    Security has become a central concern in regions around the world, specifically with the rise of ethnic, religious, race, and immigration conflict as well as terrorism. The border region scale is significant for promotion and development of security discussions, because its affects a collection of internal and external factors. Border areas have a special status as geographical paramount in national and international debates. This paper investigates security of river's physiographic area in northwest of Iran and along the Aras international boundary river. Occasionally, border area of Aras river led to tension and collaboration between two or more nations and countries in history. This region has multitude geopolitical importance with more than 400 km international border; Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey, having four county and seven border cities with high natural and human capacities (mineral resources, oil, agriculture, borderline differences and ethnic and religious variations). In this research, we have identified effective security factors on the border region in Aras river by examining complex relationships between environmental, political and economic factors. Generally, we measured the effects of various security-related factors, including gender, age, socioeconomic status, trust, ethnicity, region structure and texture, geopolitical position, changeable elements of power in region and its cultural context through factor analysis. Therefore, question that to be mentioned here is: what factors have had greatest impact to region security boundary in Aras river.

    Data and methods

    Research method is descriptive-analytical and research type is applied and theoretical. The method of data collection is documental – surveying; first, theoretical information was gathered in relation to border towns, its characteristics and features of Aras border region. Second, in order to provide undone data, survey studies (interviews and questionnaires) were conducted and questionnaire was adjusted based on Likert scale. For assessing to research validity, designed questions based on indicators, delivered to experts familiar with concepts of research and asked from them to evaluated accuracy of indicators convert to questions. Cronbach's alpha test was used to measure reliability of each variables that’s required for factor analysis. Therefore, for determine reliability of this tool, a pre-test was performed among the sample of 30 residents of the community surveyed. Then, using SPSS software, alpha value for each question and total questionnaire was obtained. The alpha value was "0/821", which is higher than 0.7, indicating its suitability for factor analysis. The statistical community is combined of all border residents such as villages, towns and cities in around of Aras river, nearly 385 sample were selected with using Cochran formula. The sampling method is random cluster. Data analysis was performed through exploratory factor analysis in SPSS software. 

    Results and Discussion

    To carrying out factor analysis, sampling adequacy test (KMO) was calculated to ensure the adequacy of sample size. In this test, KMO value was "0.714" and significance level of Bartlett test was "sig= 0.000", these values indicate suitability of the data for factor analysis. That is, given that KMO is above than "0.5", performance factor analysis is possible on target variables. Likewise, in order that significance test (sig: 0.000) less than "0.05" its acceptable. In this research, with utilizing of Varimax rotate, "6" factors with eigenvalue greater than "1" and their materials had factor load greater than "0.25" were obtained. with determined to extraction of six factors, sixty percentage of total variance is explained. The percentage of total variance for each factors is as follows: the first factor (12.68); second factor (24.06); third factor (35.05); fourth factor (44.08); fifth factor (52.52) and the sixth factor (60/33). The results of factor analysis method after matrix rotation show that variables (3, 16, 19, 28 and 36) placed in first category, variables (1, 5, 15) in second category, variables (11, 14, 21, 23, 24, 27, 33 and 35) belonging to third category, variables (2, 6, 8, 12, 17, 25, 26 and 32) stand in fourth category, variables (7, 9, 20, 22, 30 and 31) in fifth category and the variables (4, 10, 13, 18, 29, and 34) are pertaining to sixth category.

    Conclusion

    The most important recognize factors effectiveness to security of border region in Aras river including to geographical factors [geomorphologic-climatological], institutional- management and environmental, military-disciplinary, geoeconomical, geocultural, and geopolitical. The naming of indicators is done based on variables semantic authenticity and content implication, in addition, interpretation and prioritization of factors was based on factor load of their variables subset. Geocultural and geopolitical factors were most important factors effective indicators to security of border region in Aras river, and military - disciplinary and geographical were identified least influential factors. According to the results, priority dimension of security in study area is geocultural security; ethnic, racial, religious and linguistic correlations with periphery countries of    Aras river can lead to ethnic crises if don’t overcome to lack of strengthening conditions about convergence and unity.  Undeveloped industrial to major section of periphery in Aras river and dependence of most inhabitants to agricultural sector, which does not have sufficient income for households. The necessity of investing in industrial production sectors through responsible institutions is required to save region from unemployment, poverty and lack of sustainable income, and as a result can be geo-economics’ security

    Keywords: Security, Geopolitics, Border regions, Factor analysis, Aras River
  • Sara Mousavi, Masoud Ghaffari *, Shahrouz Shariati Pages 119-148
    Introduction

    Commercial routes play an important role in the geopolitical position of countries. Meanwhile, Turkey has always been known as the bridge between Asia and Europe, and part of the ancient Silk Road, the most profitable trade route, has passed through the country in the past. In recent years, Turkey's geopolitical position has become a valuable tool in realizing China's belt and road project and connecting it to Europe; in addition, the Turkish government has unveiled a plan in recent years called the "Middle Corridor." Its aim is to encourage the Turkic-speaking people of Northwest Asia to further engage and interact with each other and strengthen the sense of regional ownership. The project, which will connect Asia to Europe, will reduce Iran's geopolitical capacity for trade with Europe and will increase Turkey's regional power from a geopolitical perspective. From the other hand, After the end of the Cold War, Iran showed a desire for a new direction in foreign policy, known as the "look to the East. With this in mind, it seemed the “Look to the East” policy can only serve Iran’s national interests if it can remove any kind of dependence on the West and enforce a balanced foreign policy that could also widen Iran's foreign policy options. From this point of view, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is unable to make institutionalized relations with the West, adopt a strategic and long-term approach towards Eastern actors such as China and plan to integrate agenda to propel the foreign policy in line with this objective. Iran also tries to tie itself into surging flow of development and integrity in the East. This article shows that, linking China's Belt and Road project with Turkey Middle Corridor project would be similar to US geopolitical neutralization of Iran and versus Iran's geopolitical position and “Look to the East” policy.

    Methodology

    In present study, Case study research is a methodology which can take either a qualitative or quantitative approach. Case study in this article refers to the in depth analysis of some facts about “Middle Corridor” and China's “Belt and Road”. In addition, Data were collected by four

    methods

    individual interviews, survey on formal reports and news study, documentation collection and study the related Books and journals in Chinese, English and Persian languages. Data analyses was based on describe-analysis

    Discussion and conclusion

    The efforts of regional and supra-regional powers to limit and neutralize Iran's geopolitics, especially over the past two decades, have always been unprecedented. The most important of these efforts are US investment in Turkmenistan and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, Middle East and West of Asia is considered as one of the most important areas for China's presence and influence in international affairs. in such a situation, China's economic role in the West Asian region and Turkey's development program in recent years has led to the expansion of Beijing-Ankara relations, which could pose a new threat to Iran. As this article shows, Iran's geopolitical neutralization of the Asian continent's connection to Europe and Iran's deprivation of its geopolitical position are among the consequences of the expansion of Beijing-Ankara relations. In other words, Turkey, which has influence in most of Iran's peripheral regions such as Azerbaijan, Central Asia and the Caucasus, could reduce Iran's geopolitical importance in the medium and long term if it expands ties with China. On the other hand, given Turkey's advantages, especially its better economic situation compared to Iran, as well as Turkey's better relations with the United States, China can expand its economic relations with Ankara more than before.According to this scenario, cooperation between Iran and China will remain limited and there's not a great chance for Iran to expand relations with China. This scenario will be caused, threat and at least opportunity for Iran, and Iran's position in China's foreign policy will be reduced. Moreover, Iran's rivals will be able to find a better place in the region

    Keywords: Iran, China, Turkey, Belt, Road, Middle Corridor
  • Javad Etaat, Hasan Karimi * Pages 149-181
    Introduction

    The Muslim Brotherhood is the name of a political-social movement established in 1928 by Hassan al-Blaana in Egypt. Despite the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood is an Egyptian organization, it has global incentives and seeks to create a single, global organization under its own management. To this end, the members of this party in the late 1930s began to engage with Islamist enthusiasts in the Arab world. The Muslim Brotherhood, while communicating with Muslim and non-Muslim countries, has begun to establish branches in these countries. The Muslim Brotherhood is strongly opposed to secularism and secular nationalism and seeks to establish an Islamic state in Egypt, and ultimately in the Muslim world. This study, using a descriptive-analytical method with data collected from written sources and the Internet, seeks to find the possible reasons for the failure of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. It can be said that the failure of the Muslim Brotherhood was due to its incompatibility with the political and social environment of Egypt on the one hand and the interference of external factors on the other. The findings of this study indicate that the constitutional trap, the lack of charismatic leadership, managerial weakness, the poor economic conditions in Egypt, the challenge with other parties, the tension with the army, the conflict with al-Azhar and the interference of foreign powers were among the factors that led the failure of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. According to Islam promoted by the Muslim Brotherhood, politics means absolute politics in the real sense of the word, that is, attention to the internal and external affairs of the nation without relying on any particular party. The Brotherhood is an invitation to return because it calls on Muslims to return to Islam and the Qur'an. It follows a traditionalistic approach because it requires itself to practice a pure tradition. It is, in fact, a Sufi reality and political institution because it calls for the reform of the government from inside and the revision of the relation of the Islamic nation with other nations of the world. Ultimately, it has social insight. The Muslim Brotherhood sought to establish an Islamic state in Egypt. But a look at the fundamental slogans of this movement on the one hand, and the political and social atmosphere of Egypt, on the other hand, suggests that it is difficult to establish a fit between them. The Egyptian revolution (2011) was the golden opportunity that the Muslim Brotherhood had been looking for years to make clear and put into action their intentions.

    Methodology

    The main method of empirical sciences, including geography, is the deductive method. The deductive method or deductive reasoning reveals the scientific principles through the process of reasoning, and thus it is a logical method. In fact, logical reasoning supports and reinforces empirical ideas and impressions and synthesizes them by forming a thesis and antithesis. In this method, the methods of creating a rule that is the basis of its validity are examined.

    Results and discussion

    Egypt located in North Africa is one of the most important countries in the Islamic world due to the presence in al-Azhar University. The domination of the Egyptian government over al-Azhar on the one hand and the lack of financial independence, on the other hand, made this discursive center unable to function well. This situation aggravated by the fall of the Ottoman caliphate in 1918 led to the formation of the Muslim Brotherhood (1928). The Brotherhood originated in the city of Ismailia. Later, it became an overarching ideology in Egypt and was ultimately reflected on a transnational scale. After the revolution of 2011, the Muslim Brotherhood succeeded in taking control of the government in Egypt. But a set of factors led the party to fall in 2013. The factors affecting the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood were the constitutional trap, the lack of charismatic leadership, managerial weakness, the disastrous situation of Egypt, the inability of the government to fulfill its promises to the people, lack of interaction with other parties, tension with the army, disagreement with al-Azhar, and the opposition of the regional and international powers.

    Conclusion

    The Muslim Brotherhood was the product of the political and social conditions of Egypt and the entire Muslim world after the fall of the Ottoman caliphate. The Muslim Brotherhood officially started its political activities in 1939 due to the Second World War and the protests by the people about the British presence in Egypt. With the rise of Abdel Nasser in 1952, the Brotherhood was allowed to do political activities. But the Brotherhood's attempts to Islamicize the Egyptian society caused friction between the Brotherhood and Nasser, and many of them went to jail. During the Sadat era, many members of the Brotherhood were released from prison and began to take political actions, but the Camp David Peace Treaty caused a disagreement between the Brotherhood and Anwar Sadat, which caused Anwar Sadat to imprison many of them. When Mubarak came into power in the 1980s, the Muslim Brotherhood resumed their political activities due to the open political atmosphere at that time. However, the proximity of Mubarak to Israel created tension in the relationship between the Brotherhood and Mubarak. The September 11 incident led to the reopening of political space in Egypt. The Brotherhood took advantage of this opportunity and won over 80 seats in the 2005 parliamentary elections, an issue that was of concern to Mubarak. The 2011 revolution led Mubarak to collapse from power. The Muslim Brotherhood managed to take power but fell within a year. Among the factor leading to the failure of the Brotherhood, one can mention the constitutional trap, the lack of strong leadership, the chaotic situation in Egypt, the consensus of other parties against the Brotherhood, the opposition to al-Azhar, and the negative regional and global reactions. So the Brotherhood, after years of struggle, questioned its competency for establishing an Islamic and democratic government in Egypt due to its poor performance.

    Keywords: Muslim brotherhood, Revolution, Egypt, Islamic Government, Defeat
  • Naser Hadian, AmirHoushang Karimi * Pages 182-202
    Introduction

    In current world "Sport" is recognized as an important social, economic, cultural, political and international factor and element. "Sport" can be considered as the multi- dimensional phenomenon with different political, cultural and economic aspects. One can even consider it (the sport policy) as the new dimension of foreign policy. It means that "Sport" is playing a significant role in relations and interactions of Nation- States. As a matter of fact, Sport has played such an important role in international aria since the last century. If we consider "War" and "Peace" the main issue or challenge of international relations, as it before, Sport has a close relationship with both of them. Thus, Sport as a source of soft power, can be in service of foreign policy goals and some (or many) states use it to maintain of their national interests. Interestingly even in sport policy and strategy of some countries, "Sport" has increased to a higher level as an efficient and effective instrument /mechanism to help the geopolitical aspect of foreign policy, for instance in China, Qatar, Israel and recently Russia.

    Methodology

    The methodology of current article (which is extracted from PHD thesis) is descriptive- analytical based on the fact and data collected from the written documents especially books and articles both in English and Persian. (Library Technique)  

    Finding

    Sport can be used in different ways in foreign policy (by states) with positive or negative effect as in follow:A) The positive usages of sport in foreign policy:As a political instrument (for improving bilateral and int. relations & supporting peace)As a diplomatic instrument (for enhancing friendship among nation – states)As a social instrument (for increasing social coherence & national identity)B) The negative application of sport in foreign policy:As a political weapon (for increasing tension & using for boycott) As a Diplomatic Trigger mechanism (for ending peace & starting conflict)As a social instrument (for increasing tension inside society & activating social gap)

    Analysis:

    In analysis of the sport policy & sport diplomacy of People Republic of China (PRC) and what it has done during the past half a century, we can see and recognize that there is a close relationship between two "Champs" (sphere): the champ of foreign policy of China & the champ of international sport. According to "Champ Theory" presented by French well – known social philosopher, Pierre Bourdieu, in which the theoretical foundation of this research has been based, there are interconnections & reactions between deferent Champs and  different players and agents (states, institutions, establishments & persons) try to act in various champs in order to gain and obtain capitals and achievements and finally use them to increase their positions in internal & international society and to pursuit their foreign policy goals & defend better their national interests. In such a context, PRC has endeavored hardly to use its soft power of sport in international sport area (champ), among other hard/soft/smart powers (such as economic strength, military power, political influence & etc.) in order to solve its geopolitical challenges , especially regarding Taiwan, and improve its geopolitical situation in international area. In this article two most famous examples of enacting international sport to help solving geopolitical concern (i.e Ping Pong diplomacy between China & U.S.A) and decrease geopolitical conflict with Taiwan (by using international sport, especially Olympic Formula) is reviewed and analyzed.    

    Conclusion

    With examining and scrutinizing of policy and conduct of PRC in international sport champ, especially its sport strategy towards Taiwan and using Ping Pong diplomacy with U.S.A as a coverage for formal diplomacy and make a global balance to America and Soviet Union, we reached to some conclusions as follow:With wisely conduct of soft power of sport in international area, PRC has been able to make enormous geopolitical achievements regarding to re-defining and re- shaping of bilateral relations with the western block super power, i.e United States of America. Also China with smart use of sport in international champ, was able to control and manage the "Taiwan problem".It seems that the strategic target of PRC by using the soft power of sport and implementing an active sport diplomacy is political exploitation and to reach geopolitical goals. It means that the sport policy of PRC is complementary element of its security strategy. Thus, the case of PRC is an extraordinary example in which the "Sport" in international area has upgraded to a highest level as a powerful political instrument with geopolitical considerations.In the framework of the designed conceptual model, it is obvious that PRC significantly matters the "International Sport Champ" and severely endeavor to gain and obtain the maximum achievements (capitals). The main achievements that PRC pursues are international dignity, economic benefits, political influence and above all, geopolitical advantages

    Keywords: sport, Soft power, Geopolitics, Foreign Policy, China
  • Sohrab Enami Alamdari, Nozar Shafiee *, Ebrahim Motaghi Pages 203-228
    Introduction

    Many scientists believe that 20th-century knowledge is known only by three theories: relativity theory, quantum theory, and chaos theory. They and believe that studying the phenomenon of chaos will be one of the hottest discoveries in the 21st century.Chaos theory, as the theory of order in disorder, charts a future that, by accepting it, the past of that process must be forgotten. The turbulence is the fluid dynamics over time and space that time and place go out of their cycle.In this context, turbulence systems can be used as an operational-strategic model in the fields of international relations and geopolitics.

    Methodology

    The present study is a descriptive-analytical research using library-document-gathering method that attempts to analyze and explain the state of turbulence in global geopolitics within the framework of theoretical modeling.

    Findings

    The findings of this study are discussed under the following themes:

    1.Chaos systems interact with geopolitical environments like living things:

    As the system approaches adaptive equilibrium, it needs fundamental internal changes that lead to dynamic adaptation instead of adaptation and adaptation to the environment.

    2.Creating a dynamic structure and pattern of behavior in a turbulent systems:

    In the management of chaotic geopolitical environment and with the attitude of chaos theory, the relationship of the components should be such that each component can have an independent and dynamic relationship with other components while performing its duties independently.

    3.The role of leadership in balancing the system is of paramount importance:

    In a turbulent situation, it makes it difficult to make decisions that are unpredictable or at least certain. In such a situation and process, clearly defining priorities and explaining the structure of cause and effect can lead to collective cooperation in decision-making.

    4.Creating short-term decision-making procedures instead of long-term ones with flexible planning:

    In chaos management, consensual and executive consensus is of symbolic and functional importance.

    5.Creating order-making, Equilibrium and Balancer processes:

    In chaos management, the basis should be stability management and maintaining stability.

    Analysis:

    The big game of science is modeling from the real world, and any scientific theory sets out some rules for this game.Chaotic systems are one of the areas in which modeling can provide role models for researchers in international relations and political geography to find ways of strategic management. This paper proves the claim that the world is in turmoil and security in a turbulent world is directly transformed by such a situation The current international system is full of signs of chaos, such as uncertainty, interference, and unpredictability that can be disruptive and orderly in relation to global geopolitics.In this research, the concept of chaos is examined followed by the chaos management patterns in the link between the components of security chaos in global geopolitics.

    Conclusion

    In the area of chaos component management, some of the key structures such as adaptation, overlap, adjustment, transition planning, self-organization, wheel management, branch management, complex adaptive structures creation, random pattern management, and geopolitical network management are of key importance.In the strategic area of limiting shared threats, enhancing information networks, rapid and incremental operations, linking infrastructures and in the area of management, providing interim and mid-term agendas, crisis management and prioritizing needs and needs are chaos management processes

    Keywords: chaos, order in disorder, Global Geopolitics, chaos management
  • Zahra Alvandi, Mehdi Zakerian Amiri *, Seyed Abdolali Ghavam, Hamid Ahmadi Pages 229-254
    Introduction

    Israel lobby in European Union is different from United States and has developed during twenty recent years by granting powers from institutions of European Union. The relations between Iran and European Union has been faced with political challenges such as Iran Nuclear Programs. Israel lobby’ influence on foreign policy behavior of Euroepan Union on relations with Iran especially Iran nuclear programs would be essential according the importance of  European Union as an International actor .

    Methodology

    The methodology of this paper is based on descriptive-analytical and discourse analysis methods seek to study the main question that is Lobby Israel’s Influence on relations among Iran and European Union by emphasizing on Iran nuclear programs

    Findings

    Findings of this study are discussed under the following themes:1- institutions of Israel lobby through influencing in European Parliament have attempted to benefit the maximum efficiency via Iran nuclear programs by organizing the sessions, conference, meeting with European authorities, interview, publication article and statement against Iran in order to decresa the relations among Iran and Euroepan Union as well as advancement of Isreal’s interest.2-European Jewish Congress and European Friends of Israel as the most important lobby institutions in Brussles affected on the relations among Iran and Euroepan Union in the fields such as the lack of formatting the relations in framework of comprehensive cooperation agreement, avoiding European authorities for trip to Iran and countinuity of critical tone of Europe to Iran nuclear programs.

    Analysis:

    Israel by using strategic instrument of negative propaganda agagint Iran as Iranophobia and highliting Iran nuclear programs as destructive threat in the regional and International level has attempted to influence the institutions of Lobby in European Parliament in order to effect and actualize political and strategic purposes.

    Conclusion

    The main hypothesis emphasize main question that Israel lobby’s influence in European Union has been affected the highlighting the Iran’s nuclear programs threat  in reducing political relations among Iran and European Union by applying economic-commercial sanctions and restrictive measures on Iran as well as continuity of critical tone of Europe to Iran nuclear programs.

    Keywords: Israel lobby, Iran, European Union, Sanction, Iran Nuclear Programs