فهرست مطالب

Journal of Education and Health Promotion
Volume:8 Issue: 1, Jan 2018

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1397/01/14
  • تعداد عناوین: 16
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  • Joko Gunawan, Yupin Aungsuroch, Ade Sukarna, Nurasnih Wahab Page 1
    BACKGROUND

    Identifying nursing students’ plan after graduation is necessary to maintain the profession in line with their nursing education. This study was conducted to explore the career plans of diploma nursing students after graduation and factors influencing their plans.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS

    This was a qualitative descriptive study using focus group discussion, conducted in Academy of Nursing of Belitung, Indonesia. Twenty diploma nursing students at the beginning of their 1st year of study were recruited. Data were analyzed using content analysis model.

    RESULTS

    The plan of diploma nursing students after graduation: becoming a civil servant and its influencing factors (fixed and higher salary, fair remuneration and incentives, and retirement fund); becoming a bedside nurse and its influencing factors (helping others and gaining experiences); and continuing higher education in nursing and its influencing factors (recognition as professional nurse, financial support, family responsibilities, and location of nursing schools).

    CONCLUSION

    It is suggested that nurse educators should change the mindset of the students not to focus only becoming a civil servant, and the government should open bachelor program in nursing in Belitung and provide educational support for those who would like to continue studying nursing.

    Keywords: Career, diploma students, plan after graduation
  • Sarah K Dotters Katz, Alice Chuang, Amy Weil, Jennifer O Howell Page 2
    BACKGROUND

    Humanism is a central tenant of professionalism, a required competency for all residency programs. Yet, few residencies have formal curriculum for teaching this critical aspect of medicine. Instead, professionalism and humanism are often taught informally through role‑modeling. With increased burnout, faculty professionalism may suffer and may compromise resident role‑modeling. The objective of this study was to design a pilot curriculum to foster humanism in among residents and assess its ability to do so.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS

    Two‑phase exploratory sequential mixed methods study. Phase 1: a qualitative analysis of residents’ narratives regarding challenges to humanistic behavior, and identified themes of compassion, fatigue, communication challenges, and work‑life balance. Themes used as needs assessment to build curriculum. Phase 2: three sessions with themes taken from faculty development course. Participants and controls completed baseline and 60‑day follow‑up questionnaires assessing burnout, compassion, satisfaction, and ability to practice psychological medicine. Phase one included Obstetrics/Gynecology and internal medicine residents. Phase two included residents from the above programs, who attended at least 2/3 interactive sessions designed to address the themes identified above.

    RESULTS

    Twelve participants began and ten completed curriculum (83%). The curriculum met course objectives and was well‑received (4.8/5). Burnout decreased (−3.1 vs. 2.5, P = 0.048). A trend toward improved compassion (4.4 vs.−0.6, P = 0.096) for participants compared to controls was noted.

    CONCLUSION

    A pilot humanism curriculum for residents was well‑received. Participants showed decreased burnout and trended to improved compassion scores. Development and evaluation of an expanded curriculum would further explore feasibility and effectiveness of the intervention.

    Keywords: Burnout, humanism, humanism curriculum, resident education
  • Zahra Mohebbi Dehnavi, Farzaneh Jafarnejad, Zahra Kamali Page 3
    INTRODUCTION

    Primary dysmenorrhea without pelvic pathology is one of the most common complaints in women’s medicine. Primary dysmenorrhea can affect the quality of life of women. Aerobic exercise is one of the ways to reduce the severity of primary dysmenorrhea. The present study aimed to determine the effect of 8 weeks of aerobic exercise on the severity of primary dysmenorrhea.

    METHODS

    This is a clinical trial study performed on 70 students with primary dysmenorrhea in dormitories of Mashhad University of Medical Sciences in 2015. Participants were randomly assigned to intervention and control groups. The instrument was a visual pain questionnaire completed by the two groups in the first 3 days of the menstrual cycle. The exercise protocol included aerobic exercise, which performed the intervention group for 8 weeks, three times a week, and each time for 30 min. Data were analyzed by Fisher and Chi‑square tests.

    RESULTS

    The control and intervention groups were homogeneous in terms of demographic characteristics. Results showed that the severity of primary dysmenorrhea at the beginning of the study was not significantly correlated with the two groups. At the end of the 4 weeks after the intervention, the intervention group did not show any significant changes in the control group (P = 0.423) but At the end of 8 weeks after the study, the intervention group showed significant changes compared to the control group (P = 0.041).

    CONCLUSION

    The results of this study showed that performing aerobic exercise can improve primary dysmenorrhea. Therefore, aerobic exercise can be used to treat primary dysmenorrhea.

    Keywords: Aerobic exercise, pain intensity, primary dysmenorrhea
  • Shaleen Vyas, Sandesh Nagarajappa, Pralhad L Dasar, Prashant Mishra Page 4
    AIM

    To translate OHIP‑14 into Hindi and test its psychometric properties among school teacher community.

    METHODS

    The OHIP‑14 was translated to OHIP‑14‑H using WHO recommended translation protocol. During pre‑testing, an expert panel assessed content validity of the questionnaire. Face validity was assessed on a sample of 10 individuals. The OHIP‑14‑H was administered on a random sample of 170 primary school teachers. Internal consistency and test‑retest reliability were assessed using Cronbach’s alpha and Intra‑class correlation coefficient (ICC) respectively, with 2 weeks interval. Predictive validity was tested by comparing OHIP‑14‑H scores with clinical parameters. The concurrent validity was assessed using self‑reported oral health and discriminant validity was ascertained through negative association with sociodemographic variables.

    RESULTS

    The mean OHIP‑14‑H score was 9.57 (S.D = 4.58). ICC and Cronbach’s alpha for OHIP‑14‑H was 0.96 and 0.92 respectively. Concurrent validity using binomial regression model indicated that good (OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.55 – 4.47) and moderate (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.17 – 1.87) OHIP‑14‑H scores were negative but significant risk indicators of poor self reported oral health (P < 0.009). Significant predictive validity was observed between OHIP‑14‑H scores and clinical parameters (P < 0.000).

    CONCLUSION

    Translated and culturally adapted OHIP‑14‑H indicates good reliability and validity among primary school teachers.

    Keywords: Health status measure, oral health, quality of life, questionnaire, reliability, validity
  • Veda Vakili, AhmadReza Zarifian, Majid Khadem Rezaiyan Page 5
    BACKGROUND

    The development of public transportation (PT) is a crucial issue in the modern societies. The aim of this study was to assess the status of PT usage among the population residing in Mashhad.

    MATERIALS and METHODS

    In a cross‑sectional design, 464 citizens of Mashhad filled a checklist about PT‑use (i.e., bus, taxi, and metro) to find their supporting and opposing factors in 2014. Chi‑square, Mann–Whitney, Student’s t‑test, and logistic regressions were used for inferential analysis in SPSS 11.5.

    RESULTS

    Mean age was 30.02 ± 11.24 years and 57% (263) were female. Bus (169, 50%) was the most popular PT means, followed by metro (98, 29%) and taxi (74, 21%). Most transportations were happened at morning (248, 35%) and evening (221, 31%). Increasing age (odds ratio [OR] =1.04, confidence interval [CI] 95% = 1.008–1.07), higher education (OR = 2.91, CI 95% = 1.14–7.38), being homemaker (OR = 2.97, CI 95% = 1.19–7.36), or student (OR = 2.91, CI 95% = 1.14–7.38) were predictors of PT‑use.

    CONCLUSION

    Individual preference between PT and driving is associated with social, economic, and cultural aspects of a population. Recognizing the influencing factors can help to design population‑oriented services.

    Keywords: Bus, Iran, metro, predictor, public transport, taxi
  • Masoumeh Kordi, Sahar Riyazi, Marziyeh Lotfalizade, MohammadTaghi Shakeri, Hoseyn Jafari Suny Page 6
    BACKGROUND AND GOAL

     Screening of fetal anomalies is assumed as a necessary measurement in antenatal cares. The screening plans aim at empowerment of individuals to make the informed choice. This study was conducted in order to compare the effect of group and face‑to‑face education and decisional conflicts among the pregnant females regarding screening of fetal abnormalities.

    METHODS

    This study of the clinical trial was carried out on 240 pregnant women at <10‑week pregnancy age in health care medical centers in Mashhad city in 2014. The form of individual‑midwifery information and informed choice questionnaire and decisional conflict scale were used as tools for data collection. The face‑to‑face and group education course were held in two weekly sessions for intervention groups during two consecutive weeks, and the usual care was conducted for the control group. The rate of informed choice and decisional conflict was measured in pregnant women before education and also at weeks 20–22 of pregnancy in three groups. The data analysis was executed using SPSS statistical software (version 16), and statistical tests were implemented including Chi‑square test, Kruskal–Wallis test, Wilcoxon test, Mann–Whitney U‑test, one‑way analysis of variance test, and Tukey’s range test. The P < 0.05 was considered as a significant.

    RESULTS

    The results showed that there was statically significant difference between three groups in terms of frequency of informed choice in screening of fetal abnormalities (P = 0.001) in such a way that at next step of intervention, 62 participants (77.5%) in face‑to‑face education group, 64 members (80%) in group education class, and 20 persons (25%) in control group had the informed choice regarding screening tests, but there was no statistically significant difference between two individual and group education classes. Similarly, during the postintervention phase, there was a statistically significant difference in mean score of decisional conflict scale among pregnant women regarding screening tests in three groups (P = 0.001). DISCUSSION AND

    CONCLUSION

    With respect to effectiveness of group and face‑to‑face education methods in increasing the informed choice and reduced decisional conflict in pregnant women regarding screening tests, each of these education methods may be employed according to the clinical environment conditions and requirement to encourage the women for conducting the screening tests.

    Keywords: Chromosomal abnormalities, decision making, education, informed consent, prenatal screening
  • Ramandeep Singh Gambhir, Mandeep Kumar, Gurminder Singh, Arshdeep Singh, Amanpreet Kaur Page 7
    BACKGROUND

    Dental health‑care personnel are at an increased risk toward infections caused by various microorganisms including hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses (HCV). A dentist can play an important role in the prevention of HCV by considering every patient as a potential carrier for hepatitis. Therefore, the present study was conducted to assess the knowledge and awareness of dental health‑care professionals regarding various aspects of HCV.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS

    A cross‑sectional study was conducted among 247 private dental practitioners of tricity. A close‑ended self‑structured questionnaire was administered which contained 12 questions on knowledge and awareness regarding HCV infection keeping in view the time constraints. Categorization of knowledge scores was done at three levels ‑ poor, moderate, and good. Statistical analysis was done using ANOVA and Student’s t‑test.

    RESULTS

    Nearly 96% (102) of postgraduates and 84% (117) of graduates had heard about HCV. 45.5% (112) had poor knowledge scores, 33.6% (83) had moderate knowledge scores, and only 21% (52) of participants had good knowledge scores. On the opinion of treating an HCV‑infected patient by a dentist, only 61% (65) of postgraduates and 46% (64) of graduates agreed. There was statistically significant association of mean knowledge scores with gender, education level, and experience (P < 0.05).

    CONCLUSION

    Majority of the dental professionals lacked knowledge regarding HCV infection and were not fully aware regarding certain aspects. Therefore, there is an urgent need for modification of the existing dental curriculum so that knowledge regarding these diseases can be imparted during graduation.

    Keywords: Awareness, hepatitis C, infection, prophylaxis, vaccination
  • Habibolah Rezaei, Alireza Yousefi, Bagher Larijani, Reza Dehnavieh, Nima Rezaei, Peyman Adibi Page 8
    INTRODUCTION

    Studies about globalization and internationalization demonstrate different attitudes in explaining these concepts. Since there is no consensus among Iranian specialists about these concepts, the purpose of this study is to explain the concepts of internationalization and globalization in Iran.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS

    This study is a systematic review done in the first half of 2016. To explain the concept of globalization and internationalization, articles in Scientific Information D atabase, Magiran database, and Google Scholar were searched with the keywords such as globalization, scientific exchange, international cooperation, curriculum exchange, student exchange, faculty exchange, multinational cooperation, transnational cooperation, and collaborative research. Articles, used in this study, were in Persian and were devoted to internationalization and globalization between 2001 and 2016. The criterion of discarding the articles was duplicity.

    RESULTS

    As many as 180 Persian articles were found on this topic. After discarding repetitive articles, 64 remained. Among those, 39 articles mentioned the differences between globalization and internationalization. Definitions of globalization were categorized in four categories, including globalization, globalizing, globalization of higher education, and globalizing of higher education. Definitions about internationalization were categorized in five categories such as internationalization, internationalization of higher education, internationalization of the curriculum, internationalization of curriculum studies, and internationalization of curriculum profession.

    CONCLUSION

    The spectrum of the globalization of higher education moves from dissonance and multipolarization to unification and single polarization of the world. One end of the spectrum, which is unification and single polarization of the world, is interpreted as globalization. The other side of the spectrum, which is dissonance and multipolarization, is interpreted as globalizing. The definition of internalization is the same as that of globalizing. In other words, it is possible to say that internalization is similar to globalizing but different from globalization.

    Keywords: Globalization, globalizing, internationalization, internationalization of curriculum, internationalization of curriculum profession, internationalization of curriculum studies, internationalization of higher education
  • Amit Kumar, Akanksha Tiwari, Akshatha Gadiyar, Ridhima B Gaunkar, Amita Kenkre Kamat Page 9
    BACKGROUND

    Tobacco use is a disease of addiction and a behavior choice. It is valuable to understand the psychosocial dimension of disease.

    OBJECTIVES

    The research aimed to assess the (I) behavioral determinants and pattern of tobacco use (II) readiness to quit tobacco among patients with oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) using transtheoretical model (TTM) approach visiting the dental college in Goa, India.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS

    This cross‑sectional analytical study was conducted among 300 patients over 3 months. Information about sociodemographics, determinants including age and reason of onset, behavioral stages, and the presence of OPMDs was collected using specially designed pro forma. Descriptive and inferential statistics were performed using SPSS 18.0.

    RESULTS

    Smokeless form of tobacco 199 (66.34%) was most prevalent followed by smoking 79 (26.33%) and dual tobacco use 22 (07.33%) in males. Majority belonged to low socioeconomic class. Peer influence was the most‑cited reason. Around 1/3rd of the participants had OPMDs associated with tobacco use. Significant association was observed between the presence of OPMDs and TTM behavioral stages. Patients with OPMDs are more motivated for tobacco cessation (odd’s ratio = 2.30, P = 0.002), that is, they are more in preparation and action stages.

    CONCLUSION

    The findings reflect that smokeless tobacco use is more prevalent in males with low level of education and socioeconomic class. Readiness to quit tobacco increases among patients with OPMDs using TTM.

    Keywords: Smokeless tobacco, smoking, tobacco cessation, tobacco use
  • Ahmadreza Yazdannik, Elham Izadi Dsatjerdi, Shahla Mohamadirizi Page 10
    BACKGROUND

    Mobile health has the potential to revolutionize the role of educators by empowering nurses to take more responsibility for their own learning. Hence, this study was designed to examine the effect of mobile health method to emergency nurses’ knowledge about Emergency Severity Index triage.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS

    A two groups’ pool blind quasi‑experimental study was performed on emergency department nurses working in hospitals affiliated with Isfahan University of Medical Sciences. The study was conducted from September to November 2014. Sample size was calculated as 35 participants in each group (a total of seventy participants). Participants were divided into two groups of mobile health and workshop, randomly. Participants’ knowledge score was collected according to researcher‑made questionnaire with twenty questions. SPSS version 11.5 was used to conduct statistical tests such as independent t‑test and paired t‑test for analyzing the data with the significant level <0.05.

    RESULTS

    The results show that there was not any significant difference between the knowledge scores of mobile health and workshop group before intervention, but there was a significant difference after 2‑week intervention (P = 0.012).

    CONCLUSION

    The electronic program was an attractive education method for emergency nurses because in these method educators by empowering nurses to take more responsibility for their own learning. Hence, it is suggested that mobile health is used by authorities along with routine training, due to its less cost and spending less time.

    Keywords: Electronics, emergency service, hospital, knowledge, learning, nurse
  • Amir Tiyuri, Behzad Saberi, Mohammadreza Miri, Ehsan Shahrestanaki, Beyram Bibi Bayat, Hamid Salehiniya Page 11
    BACKGROUND

    Research self‑efficacy is one of the main factors influencing the successful conduction of research and following it in students. This study was performed with the aim of determining the research self‑efficacy and its relationship with academic performance in postgraduate students of Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS) in 2016.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS

    This cross‑sectional study was performed on 320 postgraduate students of TUMS in 2016. Proportional stratified sampling was done with simple random sampling from each school. The data were gathered with Phillips and Russell’s research self‑efficacy questionnaire, demographic questions, and grade point average (GPA) and were analyzed with independent t‑tests, ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multiple linear regressions in SPSS 18.

    RESULTS

    Out of 320 students participating in this study, 152 patients (47.5%) were male and 168 (52.5%) were female with the mean age of 27.83 ± 4.3 years. The mean of research self‑efficacy score was 186.18 ± 59.5 which was significant depended on college degrees and was significantly higher in doctorate students (P = 0.0001). However, no significant difference was seen in research self‑efficacy score of students due to gender (P = 0.754) and school (P = 0.364). There was a significant direct relationship between students’ GPA and research self‑efficacy score (r = 0.393, P = 0.0001).

    CONCLUSIONS

    Results of this study showed that the research self‑efficacy score of TUMS postgraduate students is at an acceptable level, except the quantitative and computer skills that need appropriate educational interventions. As a direct and significant relationship existed between research self‑efficacy score and student’s academic performance, improving the research self‑efficacy will also increase students’ academic performance.

    Keywords: Academic performance, research, research self‑efficacy, students
  • Tulika Singh, Sanju Sharma, Bratati Banerjee, Suneela Garg Page 12
    INTRODUCTION

    Anesthesia has become one of the most advanced specialties in modern medicine with tremendous growth in knowledge and substances available for use. However, public awareness toward anesthesiologist and anesthesiology is limited. It is important for us to make people aware about the role played by an anesthesiologist in medical setup. The present study was conducted among patients and attendants to assess the knowledge regarding the anesthesiologist and anesthesiology.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS

    The study was carried out at a rural hospital of New Delhi, on 250 adult patients and attendants visiting outpatient departments to assess their knowledge regarding anesthesiologists and anesthesiology. An interview in their local language with the help of a prestructured questionnaire was carried out over a 3 month period. The participants on the basis of their answers were classified as aware or unaware. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 17.

    RESULTS

    Most of the patients in our study were not aware of the role of anesthesiologists, their role in OT and postoperative period, and about anesthesiology as a separate discipline. They were aware of the general and regional anesthesia techniques. Only half of the participants had good knowledge (55.6%), and it was significantly associated with age, sex, and education (P < 0.001).

    CONCLUSION

    There is ignorance among the general population regarding the role played by anesthesiologists. We need newer initiatives for educating public and professionals for future progress.

    Keywords: Anesthesia, awareness, knowledge
  • Farahnaz Kamali, Nikoo Yamani, Tahereh Changiz, Fatemeh Zoubin Page 13
    OBJECTIVE

    This study aimed to explore factors influencing the results of faculty member evaluation from the viewpoints of faculty members affiliated with Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS

    This qualitative study was done using a conventional content analysis method. Participants were faculty members of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences who, considering maximum variation in sampling, were chosen with a purposive sampling method. Semi‑structured interviews were held with 11 faculty members until data saturation was reached. The interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed with conventional content analysis method for theme development. Further, the MAXQDA software was used for data management.

    RESULTS

    The data analysis led to the development of two main themes, namely, “characteristics of the educational system” and “characteristics of the faculty member evaluation system.” The first main theme consists of three categories, i.e. “characteristics of influential people in evaluation,” “features of the courses,” and “background characteristics.” The other theme has the following as its categories: “evaluation methods,” “evaluation tools,” “evaluation process,” and “application of evaluation results.” Each category will have its subcategories.

    CONCLUSIONS

    Many factors affect the evaluation of faculty members that should be taken into account by educational policymakers for improving the quality of the educational process. In addition to the factors that directly influence the educational system, methodological problems in the evaluation system need special attention.

    Keywords: Factors influencing the evaluation system, faculty member evaluation system, faculty members, qualitative research
  • Shahla Mohamadirizi, Marjan Mohamadirizi, Soheila Mohamadirizi, Fatemeh Mahmoodi Page 14
    BACKGROUND

    Childbirth self‑efficacy is one of the most important factors causing a shift in mothers do vaginal delivery. If the mother feels that she can cope well with stress, will be protected from the harmful effects of stress on your health. Self‑efficacy contained individual’s assessment of her ability to deal with stressful situations. Strengthen the spiritual beliefs of the patient causes her to be a good result every situation even incurable condition. This study aimed to determine the effect of religious‑spiritual support on childbirth self‑efficacy in primiparous women.

    METHODS

    This is a quasi‑experimental study carried on seventy primiparous women; participants were randomly divided into two intervention and control groups. The intervention group received the e‑learning package based on religious‑spiritual content. Self‑efficacy questionnaire by both groups before and 4 weeks after it was completed. Collected data were entered into SPSS version 11 descriptive statistics, independent t‑test, and paired t‑test which were used for analysis of data. The significant level was considered <0.05.

    RESULTS

    The results showed that the mean self‑efficacy score before and after intervention in case group was 105.2 (27.01) and 110.12 (21.2), respectively, and in control group; 111.2 (23.12) and 116.9 (24.43). Paired t‑test in two groups was significant (P = 0.042, P = 0.045) but independent t‑test showed no significant difference in scores of childbirth self‑efficacy before and after intervention in two groups (P = 0.061).

    CONCLUSION

    In prenatal periods, religious‑spiritual support through electronic package method can increase childbirth self‑efficacy, so the planning and establishment of this training are recommended as an effective training.

    Keywords: E‑learning, prenatal, religious, spiritual, support
  • Hojjat Sheikhbardsiri, Mohammad H Yarmohammadian, HamidReza Khankeh, Mahmoud Nekoei Moghadam, AhmadReza Raeisi Page 15
    OBJECTIVE

    Exercise evaluation is one of the most important steps and sometimes neglected in designing and taking exercises, in this stage of exercise, it systematically identifying, gathering, and interpreting related information to indicate how an exercise has fulfilled its objectives. The present study aimed to assess the most important evaluation techniques applied in evaluating health exercises for emergencies and disasters.

    METHODS

    This was meta-evaluation study through a systematic review. In this research, we searched papers based on specific and relevant keywords in research databases including ISI web of science, PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, Ovid, ProQuest, Wiley, Google Scholar, and Persian database such as ISC and SID. The search keywords and strategies are followed; “simulation,” “practice,” “drill,” “exercise,” “instrument,” “tool,” “questionnaire,” “ measurement,” “checklist,” “scale,” “test,” “inventory,” “battery,” “evaluation,” “assessment,” “appraisal,” “emergency,” “disaster,” “cricise,” “hazard,” “catastrophe,: “hospital”, “prehospital,” “health centers,” “treatment centers,” were used in combination with Boolean operators OR and AND.

    RESULTS

    The research findings indicate that there are different techniques and methods for data collection to evaluate performance exercises of health centers and affiliated organizations in disasters and emergencies including debriefing inventories, self-report, questionnaire, interview, observation, shooting video, and photographing, electronic equipment which can be individually or collectively used depending on exercise objectives or purposes.

    CONCLUSION

    Taking exercise in the health sector is one of the important steps in preparation and implementation of disaster risk management programs. This study can be thus utilized to improve preparedness of different sectors of health system according to the latest available evaluation techniques and methods for better implementation of disaster exercise evaluation stages.

    Keywords: Disaster, emergency, evaluation, exercise, health, preparedness
  • Sima Rafiei, Arman Daneshvaran, Sina Abdollahzade Page 16
    CONTEXT

     Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus, in an uncertain environment, long‑term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale.

    AIMS

    This study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modeling. SETTING AND DESIGN: System dynamic modeling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020.

    SUBJECTS AND METHODS

    A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables along with supply model‑incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Data were obtained from various governmental databases and were analyzed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics, and disease prevalence during the time.

    RESULTS

    It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization, and medical capacity of the region.

    CONCLUSIONS

    Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

    Keywords: Demand, forecast, shortage, supply, system dynamics