فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال هجدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 70، پاییز 1400)

The goal of all the world''s economies is economic development. Many developed countries have experienced economic development through industry. In recent years we have witnessed an increasing trend among less developed countries to industrialize. That is why the discussion of "industrialization" is an important topic in the writings of economic development. Industrialization has been a major factor in the economic development of developed countries, and industrialization has deep links with the issue of underdevelopment and backwardness.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of structural shocks on inflation, oil prices, world price index, interest rate, money supply, exchange rate and total production on industrial production based on quarterly data (1370-1395) and estimate the severity of the effect of each. On industrialization, using structural vector autoregression model (svar). The research data were extracted from the databases of the World Bank, the Central Bank, the Journal of Economic Indicators, the Statistics Center of Iran and OPEC.

First, the effect of structural shock of variables on industrial production is estimated and the table of variance analysis is given below. The results showed that the shock of oil prices on the industrial sector, initially increases the production of the industrial sector, which can be due to expansionary policies, leading to long-term adjustment and neutralization. Other shocks also cause turmoil in industrial production, which, like oil price shocks, creates damping waves. The analysis table of variance of production of the industrial sector shows that in the first place, the explanation of the production of the industrial sector is the previous values ​​of the production of the industrial sector, and with 41% of the reason for the changes, The power of shocks from global prices and interest rates with 39% and 13%, respectively, were named as the cause of changes. In fourth place is total production with 4% of the cause of change, other variables explain small amounts of the cause of change in the long run. The results showed that the variables of global prices and interest rates have the greatest impact on increasing the output of the industrial sector and given that the interest rate is one of the monetary instruments, so in practice the central bank can achieve the goal of maximum growth of industrial output. Also follow.

Given that the results show that oil revenues will strengthen industrial production in the short term but will be neutralized in the long term, it indicates important issues and very important political recommendations. First, the huge overflow of revenues from oil resources has not been able to Is to have a fundamental impact on industrial production, in other words, we have lost resources and have not been able to build industry; On the one hand, managerial inefficiency shows the use of oil revenues in the industrial sector, and on the other hand, it shows us a clear path ahead, or in other words, it shows us based on the past and seeing the performance. We can decide for the future. If our policy plan is the same as in the past, we will not be able to help industrialize with oil revenues. On the other hand, the results show that the most important part of explaining the changes in industrial production is the amount of industrial production in the past, and this indicates the infrastructure and market conditions in previous periods, so holding exhibitions to introduce and facilitate transactions, improvement Business and transactional conditions, maintaining and strengthening production infrastructure can be more useful than monetary policy, and given that global price shocks justify about 39% of changes in industrial production, it shows the fact that the economy We are very much influenced by the international economy and most of the production resources of the industrial sector are supplied from the international market. The international market is also an important market for the sale of domestic industrial goods and at the same time an important market for the supply of alternative goods, so while interaction in the international economy has proven beneficial effects, it is a very important alarm for our country that political relations Our country and negative political interactions can cause profound damage to our industrial production. In other words, our industrial production is very sensitive to international economic relations, and this indicates the need for great caution in this regard.

Considering that the existence of a performance appraisal system in different dimensions of organizations and in decision-making units in general, is very important and the lack of a proper performance appraisal system to evaluate the performance of decision-making units in the use of available resources and facilities will have negative consequences for them, it is necessary for different organizations to develop an efficient evaluation system in order to evaluate and improve their performance. Also, considering that in general, efficiency is a criterion for evaluating the performance of a decision-making unit and generally expresses how a decision-making unit uses the resources at its disposal to produce the highest level of output, the performance of different decision-making units can be evaluated by calculating theirefficiency. Therefore, considering the vital role of banking system in the economic development of ourcountry and the effect ofbanks’ branches performance on the overall performance of banks, in this study, considering the nature of banks' branches perfomance, the operational process in the investigated branches have been divided to three stages.Then  the performance of each branch has been evaluated based oni these three stages. The first part of bank branches work process is related to how they use resources such as manpower, equipment and space of the branch to collect deposits, and the efficiency calculated at this stage is called operational efficiency. In the second part, their performance in converting the collected deposits into bank facilities has been evaluated, and the performance calculated in this section has been named as accreditation efficiency. In the third part, the efficiency related to how theymake profit from the granted facilities is calculated, which is named as the profitability efficiency. Because banks' products and their branches include multiple inputs and outputs, many studies on bank performance have used data envelopment analysis to evaluate the performance of these units (Kong et al., 2017). The main application of data envelopment analysis method is based on its ability to identify inefficient units.This enables the bank management to take action to eliminate inefficiency by reallocating resources at its disposal. But there is one major drawback to this method, and that is full-performance units that are actually on the performance frontier are only more efficient than the other units present in the sample under study. In other words, there may be branches outside the sample under study that perform better than branches on the performance frontier and are able to produce a certain level of output using less input. This structural flaw may lead to bias in the results of data envelopment analysis method (Aggelopoulos & Georgopoulos., 2017). In this research, an attempt has been made to eliminate this shortcoming by using bootstrap method and to correct the bias of the results obtained by applying envelope analysis method, which has been used to calculate the efficiency of bank branches in this research. The results of this study shows that the average efficiency of the studied branches in stage one is more than stages two and three and the lowest level of efficiency is related to profitability efficiency. Also, none of the studied branches have been able to have full performance in all three stages. It is necessary to differentiate between the performance of branches that are on the edge of efficiency in terms of standard data envelopment analysis method, but their levels of performance are different.  

In this study, a slack-based measure model, which is one of the main models of data envelopment analysis method, has been used to calculate the efficiency of the studied bank branches. This also has the ability to consider the negative impact of adverse inputs and outputs. . This model is one of the data envelopment analysis models that uses auxiliary variables (surplus inputs and lack of outputs) and provides a scalar size for performance score. Also, because the working process of bank branches include different sub-processes, it is necessary to separate the operational process of branches into several stages and evaluate the efficiency of each stage and the overall efficiency of the branches. Therefore, in this research, branch operations have been divided into three levels, under the headings of "operational efficiency", "accreditation efficiency" and "profitability efficiency". In the first stage, the ability of the studied branches to attract deposits using the resources at their disposal has been measured; Therefore, variables "personnel and administrative costs", "depreciation costs" and "rent costs" of the branches are considered as input in the first stage and variable "volume of deposits" as output. In the second stage, the performance of the studied branches in terms of accreditation is evaluated, in which variable "Volume of deposits" as input and variables "Deferred loans" and "Non-deferred loans" as output are used. In the third stage, in order to evaluate the profitability of the studied branches, in addition to output variables of the second stage, variable "Volume of guarantees" is used as an input variable and variables "Profit and obligation of facilities" and "Fee of guarantees"are used as output variable. A noteworthy point in the development of the three-stage model is that in the process of determining appropriate inputs and outputs to calculate efficiency and applying the optimization modelfor calculating efficiency, considering the negative impact of undesirable variables such as "deferred loans" on a branch performance is really vital. It is obvious that not separating favorable variables from unfavorable ones will cause an increase in the production of desirable outputs and the efficiency of the studied branches will be calculated more than the actual value. Therefore, in this research, a measurement model based on auxiliary variables has been used to calculate the efficiency.It has been optimized to consider the negative impact of undesirable input and output variables. Finally, after calculating the efficiency of branches in each stage, the overall efficiency of each branch is calculated using simultaneous optimization method. But  a more important flaw in standard envelopment analysis method is how to determine the efficiency boundary . As a limited sample of a large community is selected and the performance boundary is determined according to this sample,  there might be a branch outside the sample that has more output with the same number of inputs as branches on the performance boundary, and this calls into question the validity of the performance boundary determined by standard envelopment analysis method. Therefore, in this research, to solve these problems, using Bootstrap method and SW algorithm, 2000 simulated branches have been generated for each main branch, and by comparing the average experimental distribution of the simulated branches with the main branch, The amount of skewness of results obtained from the standard model is calculated.  

The results of this study show that at the third stage ("profitability efficiency"), due to large volume of non-performing loans (which are considered as undesirable inputs) or due to low volume of interest received on facilities and/ Or for both reasons, the efficiency of branches under review is lower than the other two stages. Also, none of the studied branches have been able to be efficient in all three stages. Furthermore, by comparing overall efficiency scores and modified overall efficiency scores, it can be seen that by modifying overall performance scores obtained from data envelopment analysis method, the overall efficiency of all branches is examined at a lower level. It should be noted that efficient branches are  those whose efficiency is equal to one in terms of standard data envelopment analysis method, and if a branch with the highest modified efficiency is considered as an efficient branch, it means that bootstrap method is accepted as a method for ranking branches in terms of performance, while bootstrap method is not a valid method for ranking and only corrects the bias of standard data envelopment analysis method results. The results also showed that the efficiency of two or more branches in terms of standard data envelopment analysis method may be equal to one and these branches are on the edge of efficiency but their levels of performance  are different. This indicates that bootstrap method,  is both able to correct the bias of standard envelopment analysis method results,  and differentiate between the performance of branches that are on the edge of efficiency in terms of standard data envelopment analysis method but  have different levels of performance.  

According to the results of this study, none of the studied branches have been able to be efficient in all three levels and the lowest level of efficiency, among the three levels, is related to profitability efficiency. One of the policy recommendations to increase the efficiency of branches is that due to low efficiency scores in the third level (profitability efficiency), banks need to strengthen the credit and accreditation system of customers. This has a direct impact on reducing the volume of overdue loans. It should be noted that high volume of overdue loans, as an unfavorable output, reduces  both efficiency scores in the second level (credit efficiency) compared to the first level and the desired output in the third level by reducing interest received fromloans. , however unfavorable inflows (deferred loans) increase. Since the results of standard envelopment analysis method is skewed due to  studying a limited sample and insufficient knowledge of the statistical community features, in this study we tried to use bootstrap method to approximately modify the skewed results of  standard cover method. The results of this study show that bootstrap method,  is both able to correct skew  and differentiate between the performance  ofefficient branches (in terms of standard data envelopment analysis method), which have different levels of performance. Therefore, the second policy recommendation to banks is to use the method used in this study to evaluate the performance of their branches.Finally, for future studies, it is suggested to use the dual bootstrap method to correct the skew and study the effects of various factors on the efficiency of bank branches.

The present study investigates the effect of economy openness on financial development in a sample of 152 countries from 1995 to 2015emphasizing on countries income level. 

After reviewing indexes used as proxies to financial development, we used liquid liabilities, the proportion of bank assets and the proportion of credits granted to private sector as proxies to financial development and after specifying different models, the effect of economy openness on each index was separately investigated. 

Results show that economy openness has a positive and significant effect on financial development. Despite resistance of these results to different financial development indexes, its impact is sensitive to the kind of index and the selected sample.
When liquid liabilities and granted credits to private sector are considered proxies to financial development, moving from the sample including low-income countries with incomes below average to the sample including high-income ones with incomes above average, the impact of economy openness on financial development increases. Moreover, if the proportion of banks assets is used as the proxy to financial development, moving from the sample including low-income countries with incomes below average to the sample including high-income ones with incomes above average, the impact of economy openness on financial development decreases. Accordingly, although the impact of economy openness on financial development is positive, the level of this impact is sensitive to the selected index and consequently the kind of selected index is important in conclusion.In this study, the impact of variables i.e. logarithm of GPD per capita, inflation and the degree of economy openness on financial development has been studied. The results indicate the positive impact of GDP per capita on financial development. This result is resistant to the sample and selected index for financial development. However, due to different indexes and samples, definite results have not been obtained regarding the impact of inflation and the degree of economy openness on financial development. The impact of these variables is sensitive to the selected sample and indexes.

Based on results, although economy openness has a positive impact on financial development, the level of this impact is sensitive to the selected index for financial development. Therefore, the selected index is of high importance for financial development. Furthermore, results show that GDP per capita logarithm has a positive impact on financial development. This result is resistant to the kind of sample and selected index. However, definite results regarding the impact of inflation and the degree of economy openness on financial development have not been obtained and their impact is sensitive to selected samples and the kind of financial development index.

Improving the welfare of citizens is important for governments that are attributed to the welfare state. The Islamic Republic of Iran is no exception to this rule. The first and second paragraphs of Article 43, the twelfth paragraph of Article 3, and Articles 29-31 of the Constitution and all economic development programs fully reflect of this claim. Thus, in order to achieve this, a high percentage of the country’s total revenue sources have been allocated to subsidies for basic goods for many years. However, the inappropriate implementation of support policies has acted in violation of its purpose, i.e. empowerment of the low-income groups. Achieving unexpected results from the implementation of support policies made the country’s officials to decide to pass a law on targeted subsidies. Research conducted on consequences of the implementation of the law on targeted subsidies shows the welfare costs resulting from rising prices, weakening of national production and the spread of unemployment in society. In addition, successive shocks resulting from exchange rate, financial and trade sanctions, and rising liquidity in the years following the implementation of the law on targeted subsidies have prompted researchers to examine the welfare losses incurred by the various income deciles, evaluate the results for proper planning and provide timely information to the country’s officials and planners. Much research has been conducted in this field so far, but there have been few studies that show the difference in the cost of living in different parts of Iran, as influenced by cultural, economic and geographical factors. In addition, the success of economic development programs in providing welfare to the low-income groups has not been studied yet. Failure of planners to attend to the welfare status of citizens by geographical areas of the country will lead to the failure of welfare programs despite spending time and exorbitant costs. The present study examines the welfare losses of commodity inflation for urban households in the western and northwestern provinces of Iran in the fourth and fifth development plans to take a step to address this shortcoming. 

In the present study, the data on price, total household expenditures and expenditures spent on the following 7 commodity groups are used: food, beverages and tobacco, housing and fuel, clothing and footwear, transportation and communications, miscellaneous goods and services, home appliances and furniture, entertainment and cultural affairs and education. These data have been extracted from the statistics on expenses and income of urban households during 2004-2015 in the Statistics Center of Iran and the price index chapter of statistical yearbooks of the whole country. The collected data are based on the linear expenditure system/model using the seemingly unrelated regression method. In this model, which consists of several equations, despite the distinction between independent and dependent variables of these equations, using the same data in them violates one of the classical assumptions (zero covariance of random error sentences) and leads to uncertainty in the estimators’ results. In order to solve this problem, sur method is a suitable method for estimating the system of equations.  

Findings from poverty line calculations in the first year of the Fourth Development Plan show the highest and lowest monthly poverty lines for the provinces of Kurdistan and East Azerbaijan, respectively. At the end of the plan, this situation was for Lorestan and Zanjan provinces, respectively. At the end of the Fifth Development Plan, urban households in East Azerbaijan faced the highest cost to meet essential needs, while Ilam province was in the opposite point. At the beginning of the Fifth Development Plan, however, the situation for the two provinces was quite the opposite. The ranking study shows that the compensatory changes of a few percent of the income of urban households in different provinces on average in development programs indicate the first ranks in both development programs for Kurdistan province compared to other provinces. The increase in the prices of three commodity groups of food, beverages and tobacco, housing and fuel, and health and treatment has had the greatest welfare losses in the fourth and fifth development plans for the urban areas of Ilam and West Azerbaijan provinces, respectively.

In the present study, the highest welfare losses were due to rising prices of food, beverages and tobacco, housing and fuel, and health and treatment, and the result was contrary to the goals pursued in the Constitution and, in parallel, economic development plans. Thus, it is necessary to reduce the cost of food production by using new technologies with less energy consumption, which are the main input of agricultural production, but, in contrast, have faced a large increase in price after the targeted subsidies. In addition, officials need to be more sensitive to the consequences of policies that increase housing prices. On the other hand, allocating a larger share of government resources to free education and health services with a proper distribution throughout the country will promote human capital and, consequently, improve the welfare of households.

Iran is one of the countries that has faced all kinds of unilateral and multilateral sanctions in different periods sincethe Islamic Revolution of 1978. Except for the oil sector, which is the most important source of foreign exchange earnings in the country, the imposition of these sanctions has had various effects on the performance of other economic sectors of the country by imposing many restrictions. A negative psychological environment for economic activities reduces investors, slows the growth, and increases inflation. Sanctions cause a kind of uncertainty in the economy and delay domestic and foreign investments. Since the mid-1980s, along with the widespread process of globalization and the acceleration of its effects, capital flows have been the focus of attention for researchers and policy-makers as one of the concrete facets of globalization in developing countries. Considering the limited amount of capital accumulation from domestic savings, developing countries rely on external sources for financing. The formation of economic advantages in different countries has encouraged capitalists around the world to move their capital beyond the borders of the mother country and seek to maximize their profits beyond the borders of the main country. Meanwhile, international sanctions can be a barrier for countries and prevent the transfer of capital and expected goals by disrupting the situation of the foreign sector of the target country. Also, empirical evidence and theoretical economic growth models both show the pivotal role of capital and capital flow. Therefore, considering the importance of capital flow and the existence of economic sanctions as an obstacle to that mechanism, the main aim of this study is to examine the impact of economic sanctions (divided to strong and weak) on capital accounts. For this purpose, a hypothesis that economic sanctions have a significant and negative effect on capital account has been constructed and ARDL model has been applied for testing it.

ARDL analysis method is a time series regression causal analysis method. When the regression model on current values includes values with past lags of the explanatory variables and includes one or more intermittent variables of the dependent variable as the explanatory variable, it is estimated as an auto-regression model with distributed lag (ARDL).

Findings show that strong economic sanctions in the short and long term with a coefficient of 12.90 and 9.98 points, respectively, have a negative impact on the capital account, which confirms the research hypothesis.

Agriculture is one of the most important economic sub-sectors of the country, accounting for about 9 percent of GDP, 21 percent of non-oil export value, about 18 percent of employment, and nearly 93 percent of community food and raw material production in many other industries. Also, agricultural and horticultural products account for the bulk of foreign trade in agricultural sector and a large share of the household basket. Thus, issues related to maintaining the production capacity and economic power of this sub-sector can affect economy of the country .In this study, crops and horticultural crops were considered as agricultural crops. According to statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad and statistical yearbooks of National Statistics Portal, from 2011 to 2016, the area under cultivation of crops and horticulture increased by 367252 hectares there was an increase of  24119617 tonsin production of these crops  and the value added of agricultural sector increased by 1693951 billion Rials in these years. 

In this study, spatial data model was used to study the economic factors affecting agricultural production (crop and horticulture) in Iran provinces during the period 2011-2017. The required information was obtained from the National Statistics Portal, Statistical Yearbooks and Agricultural Statistics of Iran. The spatial scope of this study covers all provinces of Iran and since this study is a regionalone, its main issue will be examined in the form of spatial analysis.Specifying research modelAccording to theoretical foundations and spatial econometric model, the model specified in this study is SAC model.𝑃 𝑖𝑡=α+ρ∑j Wij.Pit +𝛽1𝐶𝐴𝑖𝑡. +𝛽2. 𝐺𝐼𝑁𝐼𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3. 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽4. 𝑈𝑅𝑖𝑡+ 𝛽5. 𝑌𝑂𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽6. 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽7. 𝑉𝐴𝑎𝑔𝑟𝑖𝑖𝑡 + Uit𝑈𝑖𝑡 =λ 𝑊𝑈𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 In this model i: provinces, t: time, α: the width of the origin and β: the coefficients of the explanatory variables (slope coefficients). (P):Production. (CA): Crop cultivation area. (Gini): Gini coefficient. (INF): Inflation Rate. (UR): Urban Rate. (YO): Youth Population Ratio. (GDP): Gross Domestic Product. (VAagri): Value Added Agricultural Sector.The SAC model is selected to estimate this research. 

According to the results of this study, according to SAC model, the impact of economic factors on crop and horticultural production in the provinces of Iran was estimated. Variables from the stipulated model that were significant at 5% level include area of ​​cultivation, inflation rate, youth population ratio, GDP and agricultural value added. In this study, direct and indirect effects of the explanatory variables were estimated. 

The results of general spatial model analysis showed that cultivation area, inflation rate, youth population ratio, GDP and agricultural value added were factors influencing crop production and horticulture in the studied provinces. It was observed that income distribution and urbanization rate were not significant in the model, whilesignificant variables of the model, variables of inflation rate and youth population ratio, area of ​​cultivation, GDP and agricultural added value at 5% level were directly related to production.Therefore it is suggested:1- Considering inflation rate, authorities should implement incentive policies to attract more investors to agriculture sector.. 2. In government support services, farmers’ land features such as the area of ​​cultivation, equipment, and farming equipment should be paid attention. 3. Given that the proportion of young people has a positive and significant effect on the growth of agricultural production, it is suggested to managers and planners of the agricultural sector that more youth should be supported, provided with incentives and incentives so as to improve production. 4.Based on results as the area under cultivation has a significant and direct impact on agricultural production, individuls and authorities are recommended to maintain and exploit farmland reasonably because rehabilitation and enrichment of land which has been cultivated several times and is drained of minerals is costly.