نشریه مطالعات سیاسی جهان اسلام
پیاپی 39 (پاییز 1400)

Years after the outbreak of 2011 unrests in Syria and without a clear vision of the future of developments in this country, it will not be possible to plan for managing and ending this crisis. Among many various influential actors at the regional level, Saudi Arabia has had a great importance due to its strong presence since the very first days of the unrests in Syria as well as its relatively large influence on other regional and domestic actors. This article tries to provide a comprehensive analysis of the course of Saudi Arabia's previous actions and approaches in the Syrian crisis and to show future of Saudi policies towards the crisis. The article will then tries to offer most probable scenarios for the future of Saudi Arabian policies based on the principles of future studies.

The present study employs descriptive-analytical method, futures studies approach and scenario-making method to study and examine the issue. Taking advantages of these approaches and methods, the article scrutinizes Saudi policies in Syrian crisis as well as reasons and objectives behind each of which.

Saudi Arabia's policies towards the Syrian crisis have been identified as a crucial factor in continuation of this crisis in the past, present and future.

Taking all factors and effective deterrents into account, this article introduces continuation of the current offensive policy pursued by a kind of network deterrence as the most probable scenario for the future of Saudi policies in the Syrian crisis.

Given the relative and covert reconciliation of Arab-Israeli relations in the past and finally the revelation of this relationship in 2020, it seems that the change in the process of normalization of Arab-Israeli relations will change the regional security equations. Accordingly, the present study seeks to investigate the consequences of the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations on Iran's security environment.

The method used is descriptive-analytical, which seeks to answer the question by applying the theory of regional security complex, what effect has the development of Arab-Israeli relations had on the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran?

The findings show that the development of Arab-Israeli relations and their goals of normalizing relations have major consequences for Iran's regional security environment, such as the disruption of the balance of power structure in the region and the formation of a new regional threat balance process, the non-formation of a stable regime and stable security forces in the region, the growth of radical and extremist groups in the region, the development and expansion of the US presence and influence, and the formation of a post-ISIS order in the absence of Iran.

In addition to creating tangible changes in the security equations of the region structurally, specifically with regard to the goals of mutual development of relations, the process of normalization of Arab-Israeli relations will have new consequences on the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

After the Arab uprisings, the UAE increasingly sought to play an effective role in regional power relations. Due to its geographical location and trade-based economy, it seeks to expand its political and military influence in various areas of the region. To legitimize these goals, Abu Dhabi put the policy of aligning with world powers on its agenda. To the extent that it pursued a policy of normalizing relations with Israel in order to confront its regional rivals and to overcome the economic consequences of its regional policies. Therefore, the main purpose of this article is to answer the question: what are the factors influencing the change in the foreign policy strategy of the UAE after the unrest in the Arab world?

In order to achieve the objectives of the research and answer the question, an attempt has been made to test the changes in the foreign policy of the United Arab Emirates by a descriptive-analytical method and using library resources.

The Arab revolutions and subsequent developments paved the way for a new wave of political transition in the region. The UAE faced a political transition in the region due to its conservative political structure. At this time, the country pursued a different foreign policy since independence. The failure of many Arab uprisings plunged the region into new crises, which provided an opportunity for the UAE to pursue its political goals in the region with an aggressive approach.

Although the UAE, with the support of the remnants of former regimes and secular nationalist parties, confronted the wave of post-Arab Spring political Islam and at some point sought an independent path of influence from allies such as the Saudis, the policy choice of the normalization of relations with the Zionist regime has created a context of widespread instability in the country's foreign policy.

This article seeks to address the socio-political situation of French Muslims and the different political, social and cultural perspectives of the three generations of Muslims in this country, as well as to evaluate the French government's policies towards them, due to the escalation of identity crisis among French Muslims. This interaction has created the ground for the growth of terrorism and the intensification of Islamophobia in France.

This article is based on descriptive-analytical method by using library and internet resources.

Environmental and psychological contexts of identification among the second and third generations of French Muslims and the competition between ethnic and national traditionalism with integration in European Islam or the third option, extremism and fundamentalism, are the most important causes of the identity crisis among the Muslims. This issue has led to the deepening of the identity gap based on their secularism and Islamic values.

French Muslims are one of the largest Muslim communities in Europe, whose socio-political status reflects the limitations and problems they face. In this context, the failure of the French government's assimilation policy in the reconstruction of European Islam and the recent terrorist attacks in this country challenge the identification of Muslim youth among generations and the triple Islamic reading from ethnic traditionalism to secular Islam and Islamic fundamentalism. These conditions, in a social and identity context, lead to the reproduction of radical policies and actions by the government, French citizens and Muslims of this country.

The purpose of this article is to examine the internal causes and roots of the continuation of the crisis in Yemen. In fact, this article tries to analyze the various internal factors in the continuation of the crisis in Yemen using the theoretical framework of protracted social conflict.

The method of this article is analytical-descriptive and with this method we have analyzed the data collected from library sources and articles.                                     

The findings show that despite the role of international and regional factors in the continuation of the crisis in Yemen, various internal political, social and cultural factors have contributed to the prolongation of the crisis in Yemen. The continuation of the crisis in Yemen seems to be related to its internal issues and to the centrality of the identity issue. Indeed, various internal factors such as the intense conflict between identity actors under the government's failure to respond to their material and spiritual needs and the consequent strengthening of a supportive and tribal government in Yemen before the current crisis exacerbated the conflict between identity groups and domestic actors. The start of the recent crisis and war as well as a long-running conflict over identity issues in Yemen have caused the disintegration of Yemeni society and paved the way for the crisis to continue.

It seems that the issue of the continuation of the crisis in Yemen can be defined in the form of three variables: the intensification of identity conflicts, the rule of an authoritarian state and the acute underdevelopment in Yemeni society. In this context, the variable of authoritarian government has a direct effect on the other two variables. In fact, the authoritarian state intensifies the conflict between identity actors both by its protectionist policies and by not responding to the identity needs of other identity actors, and by its utilitarian policies it neutralizes the process of moving towards development. As a result, in such a society, if a crisis or a national and international war occurs, it will be difficult to reduce that war and crisis.

The purpose of this study is to identify US policies and objectives of the expansion of American democracy in the Islamic countries of the Middle East, and to explain the conflict between American democratization in these countries and the idea and concept of democracy.

The theoretical framework of the research is "realism" and aggressive realism and research methodology is critical. The research method is qualitative and the analysis of collected data is based on analytical-descriptive method.

The most important scientific findings of the research are based on the main research question: How can the spread of American democracy in the Islamic countries of the Middle East be evaluated? Some of the strategic and long-term policies and goals of the United States- including militarism, warlordism, globalization, imperialism, colonization and exploitation of the nations of the region and creating divisions and conflicts between them, creating and spreading terrorism, insecurity, killing, terror, violence and destruction of the opposition, securing US interests, development of American culture, secularism, and the monopolized organized capitalist economy, and self-made crisis management- are pursued through the project of the creation and expansion of American democracy using the power of hardware and software in the direction of hegemony and absolute domination and the new world order that the United States seeks in the Islamic countries of the Middle East. 

Democracy cannot be exported; True democracy is not a form, but a stage in the growth and independence of society that society must be educated to achieve. Unless a nation with sufficient knowledge and will in a civil society steps in this direction, a people's government is impossible. Therefore, American democracy in the Islamic countries of the Middle East will not be established through unilateralism, militarism, belligerence, globalization, imperialism, colonialism, exploitation, division, and so on.