فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 115 (پاییز 1400)

The resilience economy and the related policies and strategies have been one of the most important concerns of the policy makers over recent years. This issue is especially important in the agricultural sector due to its significant importance in the Iranian economy. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the importance of government policies and requirements to achieve the goals of resilience economy in the agricultural sector of Iran using Analytical Network Process (ANP) method. For this purpose, a list of the most important policies and economic requirements affecting the resilience economy in the short term, mid-term and long-term was initially selected based on the related literature and experts opinions; then through questionnaire, the concerned experts' opinions were obtained and the extracted policies were ranked. The study results showed that the most important requirements to achieve resilience economy included 'supporting national production and efficiently use of time, resources and facilities' in short term and 'reforming the Iranian economic system and privatization' in mid-term and long-term. Also, it was found that food security and reduction of imports in the short run as well as reducing government intervention in price and wage determination in the long run would be the most important government policies.

The issue of land use change and land cover is directly related to the basic resources of water and land in the agricultural sector. Therefore the present research examined factors affecting the agricultural land use change in Torbat Heydarieh County of Iran. The required data were collected from completing 366 questionnaires in a stratified random sampling method among farmers in villages of the county in 2019 and analyzed by a multiple logit model. The study results showed that in small scale farms, in the case of decision to change the land use, the age variable had a significantly negative effect and the variables of education, non-agricultural income, cultivated area, extent of crop losses and the land being a rainfed one had a significantly positive effect on the land use change; in addition, in case of decision not to change the land use, the variables of age, work experience and livestock side job, product price, satisfaction with government support programs, agricultural income and the amount of loans received had a significantly positive effect. In case of medium and large-scale farms, increasing the cultivated area would increase the effects of the independent variables including extent of crop losses, work experience and livestock side job, satisfaction with government support programs and agricultural income and increase the variables of age, product price and the amount of loans received. Therefore, providing low-interest and long-term loans and agricultural insurance are suggested to increase income and reduce losses for farmers.

the effects of reducing subsidies allocatedto the agricultural sector in the form of a general equilibrium model on economic and environmental variables were evaluated.In this regard, the reduction of subsidies in the agricultural sector was considered at5levels.The results showed that subsidy reform in the agricultural sector will reduce agricultural production and increase prices,reduce the final demand for agricultural products,especially basic products for households,and therefore endanger food security.moving towards the last scenario,ie an80%reduction in subsidies in the agricultural sector, the percentage reduction in real government expenditures is estimated at-5.87%The results show the highest decrease in production is relatedto wheat and the lowest is related to barley.by applying the desired scenarios,the fisheries sector experiences a decrease in production more than other livestock,forest and rangeland sectors.Thus,with a10%reduction in subsidies in the agricultural sector, the rate of reduction in the production of livestock,fisheries,forestry and rangeland products has been estimated at-2.4%,-10.4%and-8%respectively.Implementing the policy of reducing subsidies allocatedto the agricultural sector reduces the level of domestic production and,consequently,increases the price of agricultural products and ultimately reduces the final demand for agricultural products.the reduction of subsidies in the agricultural sector in the future will leadto a reduction in environmental pollution.the reduction in CO2production in the first scenario was equalto-0.92percent and in the fifth scenario was-22.90percent.Given the needto review the subsidy payment system,the implementation of the policy of reducing subsidies to agricultural inputs shouldbe done gradually and with optimal combination and simultaneous implementation of several policy tools appropriate to the production structure and market structure of each product.

The occurrence of floods during the 2019 water year in various parts of Iran has resulted in tremendous casualties and financial losses This study aimed at investigating the impact of the flood 2019 on the agricultural sector and the impacts of this sectoer’s damages on the other sectors of Iran's economy as well as determining the degree of dependence of the agricultural sector on other sectors. For this purpose, the generalized hypothetical extraction method of Dietzenbacher and Lahr was used in two scenarios. In the first scenario, first, the reduced share of the agricultural sector output during the flood was calculated at 28 percent; then, the estimated value was used to perform the generalized hypothetical extraction method in order to specify its impacts on the output and employment of the agricultural sector and the impact of this sector on the other economic sectors. In the second scenario, the same method was applied using a 10 percent negative shock in this sector. The study results indicated that in the first scenario, the economy's total output would decrease by approximately 130102 million IR rials (31.1 percent), and the agricultural sector as well as the electricity, water, and gas sub-sectors would be most affected; from an employment viewpoint, this reduction would have the highest impact on the agricultural sector followed by wholesale and retail services. In the second scenario, the economy's total output would decrease by approximately 68677 million IR rials (17.44 percent), having the highest impact on the output of the agricultural sector as well as the electricity, water, and gas sub-sector. Therefore, after compensating the damage in the agricultural sector, the damage to other economic sectors, especially the electricity, water and gas sub-sector (in terms of production), and the wholesale and retail services (in terms of employment) should be considered for compensation efforts.

The limited resources of production make the need to address the productivity and efficiency of agricultural units including wheat fields more and more apparent. Considering that Ahar County accounts for ten percent of the rainfed wheat cultivation area in East Azerbaijan province of Iran, the present study was conducted to investigate the profit efficiency of rainfed wheat and its effective factors in this county. For this purpose, the necessary data was collected from 217 wheat farmers in the cropping year of 2019-20. The results of estimating the translog stochastic frontier profit function along with the inefficiency function showed that the price of seed, labor, machinery, manure, herbicide, pesticide and area under cultivation as fixed inputs had significant effects on the profit from wheat production. The mean profit efficiency for all farmers was estimated to be 42/3 percent and some 66.5 percent of the farmers had a profit efficiency of less than fifty percent. In addition, the variables such as having highly educated family members, crop insurance, presence of pest in the field and harvesting method had significant effects on the efficiency of the studied wheat farmers. According to the results, paving the ground for easy and on-time access to required inputs and their optimal allocation as well as encouraging the farmers to use crop insurance might be suggested as effective measures to increase the profit efficiency of wheat farmers in the studied area.

Agriculture, as one of the most important economic sectors which is directly related to food security and public health, plays an important role in the development of countries. Thus, evaluating the effects of trade liberalization in the agricultural sector is of particular importance. Therefore, this study aimed at analyzing the effects of import tariff reduction in the agricultural sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on welfare, trade balance and production based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and version 10 of its database, in three scenarios (20 percent, 60 percent and 100 percent reductions of tariff rates) with GEMPACK software package. The study results showed that with the trade liberalization of the agricultural sector, significant welfare changes would occur in Iran and Russia; Armenia would experience negative welfare; also, the highest welfare would belong to Iran. In addition, decomposing the effects of shocks on welfare showed that the most positive impact on Iran's welfare was related to the third shock (reduction of tariffs on agricultural products imported from Russia to Iran) and fifth shock (reduction of tariffs on agricultural products imported from Kazakhstan to Iran); the most positive impact on Russia's welfare was related to the third shock; also, the reduction of tariffs in the agricultural sector had negative effects on trade balance and production of this sector, and the highest effects of tariffs reduction in the agricultural sector were reflected on the trade balance of industrial sector.

Given the importance role of oil export revenues in the whole dimensions of economy of oil exporting developing countries (government budget, GDP growth rate, investment, saving rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, poverty alleviation, etc.), this study aimed at investigating and simulating the impact of the oil revenues investing shocks on Iran's economic sectors (i.e. Agriculture, Industry and Services) through nine scenarios including the savings of the oil export revenues in national development fund (20, 50 and 80 percent) and the growth in total efficiency of production factors (5, 8 and 10 percent).The required data were seasonally collected from Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) during 1991-2016. For data analysis, the Mathlab software and Recursive Computable General Dynamic Equivalent (RDCGE) model were applied. Also, the model was calibrated using the social accounting matrix related to the base year of 2011 and basic scenario (saving 20 percent of oil export revenues in national development fund and 5 percent of growth in total efficiency of production factors). Results of Impulse Response Functions (IRF) showed that a positive shock in basic scenario on oil export revenues caused an investment reduction in agriculture and industry sectors while an investment increase in services sector, indicating the existence of Dutch disease in Iran’s economy; but during an increase in saving the oil export revenues in national development fund by 50 percent, the effect of Dutch disease would reduce and increasing the share of saving the oil export revenues in national development fund by 80 percent would remove the effect of Dutch disease; in addition, increasing the growth in total efficiency of production factors would increase the investment in the mentioned sectors.

This study aims to provide a potential map of leading and competitive economic activities in the livestock sub-sector of Iran’s provinces using location quotient analysis tools. For the goal, the data of regional accounts of 31 provinces have been used that they are available on the website of the Statistics Center of Iran for the years 2011 to 2017. The results indicate except for traditional breeding of livestock that the base provinces are decreasing, in other subsector activities like industry cattle husbandries, chicken farms, beekeeping, etc., the number of base provinces is increasing. Also, for the provinces where the activity is known as base based on the static and dynamic location quotient, which means the values of location quotient are greater than one, Therefore, according to the results of this study it is suggested to use the livestock subsector capacity to export relevant goods to the provinces without competitive advantage.

Since ensuring health and food security is one of the strategic objectives of the 20-year Prospect Document of Iran, this study aimed at investigating the factors affecting food security of households in Tehran province as the most populous province with about seventeen percent of the total population of the country in 2018. For this purpose, using cost-income information of households in Tehran province, first, food secure and insecure households were identified and then, using the logit model, quantitative and qualitative variables affecting household food security were examined. The results showed that the variables including the age of household head, subsidy received by household, household income, food diversity, housing status, number of rooms of the house and useful area of the house had significantly positive effects on food security and the variables of household size and working hours of household head had significantly negative effects on food security; in addition, while the variable of education did not have a significant effect on household food security, the female-headed households had lower food security.

For a long time, the main feature of Iran's economy has been its dependence on oil revenues and a single-product economy. Developments in the 1990s in Western countries' policies against Iran and the imposed sanctions have made it increasingly necessary to pay attention to reducing dependence on oil revenues and developing non-oil exports. Meanwhile, the export of food industry products is one of the pillars of non-oil exports due to the existing potentials in the country and certain advantages such as higher added value and job creation. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the factors affecting the export of Iran's food industry to the target countries using the panel data method and the gravity model during 2001-2018. The results showed that the variables of per capita income of the target countries and Iran, population of the target countries and Iran and export price index of Iran had positive effects and the variable of distance had a negative effect on the export value of Iran's food industry. The variable of real exchange rate also had a positive effect though not statistically significant on the export of Iran's food industry to the target countries. Finally, according to the study results on the development of target markets and focus on the countries of the region, given that these countries have high per capita incomes, it might be recommended to strengthen economic diplomacy and develop transport infrastructure to reduce transportation costs.