نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 46 (تابستان 1400)

Fiscal policies can be used as an appropriate tool to achieve regional balanced development goals and programs. In this regard, the government can contribute to the development goals of balanced development of regions through effective and efficient tax exemptions by increasing investment, transfer of knowledge and technology. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of tax exemptions (Article 132 of the Law on Direct Taxes) on the number and value added of industrial units established in deprived and less developed areas in Iranian provinces using method of panel data during 2006-2016. The results indicate that the volume of physical capital, the number of employees, government capital expenditures and bank payment facilities to industrial sector have positive effects on the number and value added of industrial units. Also, the tax exemptions subject to Article 132 have not effect on the number and value added of industrial units in deprived and less developed areas.

The outbreak of the corona virus is primarily a threat to public health, but it is increasingly becoming an economic threat that requires a decisive and coordinated policy response. Following the outbreak, the country's monetary and financial authorities have taken a wide range of measures, such as closing educational centers, shopping malls, lending to the vulnerable, importing drugs, delaying loan repayments, etc. to limit the spread of the virus. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of expansionary monetary policy during the outbreak of a pandemic disease. For this purpose, after calibrating the parameters based on the quarterly information of Iran's economy during the period 1991: 03: 01- 2021: 03: 20, in different scenarios and according to the persistence of health disaster risk, the model is simulated. The results show that the outbreak of a pandemic disease reduces working hours and consequently the marginal productivity of physical capital; thus physical investment, production, and total consumption are reduced. In addition, the implementation of an expansionary monetary policy during the outbreak reduces the severity of the recession, but is accompanied by a decline in household health. Therefore, it is recommended that public vaccination be included in the agenda as a necessary measure.

In order to investigate the reasons for the formation of business cycles, several studies have been conducted using various methods. But one of the topics that can be considered in this area is the study of factors affecting the risk of relapse, especially in countries under sanctions, which in the present study is done in a different way and based on survival analysis. Recession is considered as a recurrent disease in the economy and the factors affecting its risk of recurrence are examined. For this purpose, first, the annual data of 11 selected sanctioned countries in the period 1990-2018 are received from the World Bank website, and using the Hodrick–Prescott filter, their recession periods are determined. Then, using the approach of survival analysis based on recurring events, the effect of variables such as inflation, the ratio of fix capital formation to GDP, the ratio of government consumption expenditure to GDP, percentage of oil revenues from GDP, sanctions, and oil prices on the risk of recurrence of the recession is examined. The results show that except for inflation and the price of oil, which increases the risk of relapse, the effect of other variables on the risk of relapse is not significant.

Petrochemical industry has important role in creating value added for gas and oil resources, especially for Iran. Predicting import and export countries plus the trade product type, is a great aid for the industry stakeholders for optimal trade planning. Besides, computational methods of social networks, has been used in several applications and different areas. The aim of this paper is using network analysis methods for the first time for global petrochemical product’s trade. Data extracted and pr eprocessed from UN website of commercial trade, for popular petrochemical products from 2017 to 2019. Also, link prediction methods utilized for predicting next year trade relations, each year based on the previous one. Evaluation was done using two methods; computational approach, and validating the results with available data. The best performance method with more than 90% percent of AUC, was Preferential Attachment, and comparing the results with real data performed accordingly. Based on findings, the most promising countries for import was Spain, Slovenia, Australia, Norway and Argentina, and most feasible relation for Iran is exporting ACETONE to Spain. Finally, the methods to increase the performance of the predictions were proposed.

The occurrence of shocks in monetary and financial markets causes turbulence and disrupt relations among markets in particular the relation between risk and return of capital assets. Either, the dynamic correlation that exists among markets makes the effect of shocks contagions from one market to other markets. In this study, we investigate the effect of contagion among the monetary and financial markets of Iran using analysis of multivariate dynamic correlation among “conditional dynamic” variance and averages of daily market returns that were obtained by FIAPARCH model during 2007-2018 and using the Kargolok algorithm to identify structural breaking point in time series of market returns. The results indicate that the domestic political events have no effect on the occurrence of market shocks and the existence of the effect of contagion among those market. Also, we found that investors show heard behavior during and after turbulence period and when the turmoil ends and stability returns to the market, according to learning and changes that occurred in their utilities due to events and their new attitudes towards risks and returns, will change their investment behavior.

Identifying and evaluating the effective factors in marriage and divorce has a significant role in adopting appropriate policies to increase the benefits of marriage and reduce the harms of divorce in society. In this study, using the information of the questionnaire of Iranian households in 2018, the effect of women's employment on marriage and divorce has been investigated and the desired model has been estimated using the polynomial logit regression method. The results of the estimate for married women show that women's employment has a positive effect on divorce; in a way, their employment increases the probability of divorce by an average of about 2.5%. The results also show that the religious expenses of the household and the age of the women have a negative effect on divorce. Other related variables (including education level, urban and rural household, household income, educational expenses and religious education expenses) did not have a significant effect on divorce. The results of model estimation for women who have never been married show that women's employment has had a positive effect on their never being married. In addition, the variable of age had a negative effect and the variables of educational expenses, religious expenses and education had a positive effect on women remaining single. Other variables (household income, urban and rural households, and religious education expenditures) also did not have a significant effect on being single.