فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 134 (بهار 1400)

In this paper, I study the inflation inequality across different income deciles of the Iranian economy for the years 1374-1398. The results show that the different pattern of household purchases in different income deciles and the difference in their response to inflation is an important factor in creating inflation inequality. The heterogeneity in household purchases causes the rate of inflation inequality between the rich and the poor to increase by 12 percent per unit of average inflation.High-income households by changing their consumption baskets are able to reduce the adverse effects of inflation by 5%. On the other hand, low-income families face higher inflation rates by up to 4% because of an increase in their consumption of essential goods. As a result, for every unit of average inflation increase, the rate of inflation inequality felt by households increases by up to 20% compared to the previous case. In other words, the response of households to inflation causes a 66% increase in inflation inequality per unit of average inflation.Also, the evidence suggests that the difference in the inflation across provinces causes, firstly, the rate of inflation inequality per unit increase in average inflation to increase significantly compared to the case where provincial heterogeneity was not considered; Second, inflation inequality is observed within each decile.

Three methods of average propagation length (APL). hypothetical extraction (HE) and vertical specialisation (VS) are used for measuring internal and external environment of production chains. The former is a combined method and has the ability to identify the internal production chains of upstream and downstream activities but cannot capture the external environment of production chains. To solve this issue, HE and VS methods in analysing external environment of production chains are proposed. The former calculates the external environment of domestic value added in gross exports (GE) whereas the latter measures external environment of an economy integration with the world economy. For this purpose the latest available survey-based input-output table of 2016 and converting, it into domestic table is used for measuring internal and external environments of production chains. The overall findings are as follows: first, from the internal environment side, agriculture and mining (including crude oil and natural gas) appear as upstream in the domestic production chains. Second, from external environment at the macrolevel, the results show that the share of DV in GE is 93% unit. Whereas the share of VS to GE is 7% unit. In addition to that, the mining activity with 43%-unit share of DVA to GE stands first whereas its share of VS to GE is 1% unit. The opposite trend is observed for industrial activities. These findings suggest that Iranian economy is still encompassed in the circle of the beginning part of production process with considerable high share of DVA in GE and very low share of VS.

Scientific decision-making to select the attractive sectors of industries based on longitudinal research, can significantly reduce the intuitive decisions of banking managers and create an effective interaction between banks and industries. On the other hand, due to the importance of the role of industries in increasing the country's GDP and the impact of its development on the growth of other macroeconomic indicators such as increasing employment and reducing inflation, industry prioritization has been considered by domestic and foreign researchers. this Applied research is a quantitative, longitudinal and descriptive research. In this study, data of 5 indices and 13 sub-indices related to market size, market growth, risk, profitability and sales of 45 industries of Tehran Stock Exchange during a period of four years ending in March 2017 were obtained and prioritized by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Method. The results showed that the three industries of "securities related activities", "production of non-ferrous precious metals" and "various chemicals" are the most attractive industries from the perspective of the country's banking system.

An examination of the inflation trend in Iran shows that this variable has had fluctuating fluctuations. Instability Inflation affects many economic variables. Inflation and its instability are affected by various economic variables, including the behavior of the central bank, part of which is due to changes in the components of the monetary base. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the overflow of fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank on inflation fluctuations in the Iranian economy during the period 1352: 1 to 1395: 4 using the MGARCH-BEEK model. The obtained results show that the shocks and fluctuations of the previous period have a direct and significant effect on the fluctuations of the current period inflation rate. Also, the shocks of the previous period of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves have a direct impact on the fluctuations of the current period of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. But the shocks of the previous period of inflation do not affect the fluctuations of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. The results also show that the shocks of the previous period of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves have a significant and direct effect on inflation fluctuations. This means that the overflow of fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves on the inflation rate has occurred in the Iranian economy and shocks caused by foreign exchange reserves lead to uncertainty and inflation turbulence.

One of the recent challenges in Iran’s economy is management of liquidity and its impact on different markets. Despite policymakers have stated that the purpose of liquidity direction is to achieve high economic growth, how liquidity is generated and directed may affects the economy disparately. As regards the authority of government over the liquidity generation and its direction especially in developing countries in which central bank has no independency, the quality of institutes plays an important role. Therefore the purpose of this study is to investigate how quality of institutes can affect the impact of liquidity increase on economic growth. This research uses the PSTR approach in developing countries, including Iran, over the years 2002-2017 and the quality of institutions considered as the transfer variable. The results of model estimation rejects the linearity hypothesis. Considering a transfer function with a threshold limit that represents a dual model is enough to define the nonlinear relationship between the studied variables. The results show that the increase of liquidity has a negative effect in the first regime and in the second regime has a positive effect on economic growth. It means that in a society with high quality of institutions increasing the liquidity amount can result in high economic growth. As well, trade liberalization, has a positive effect in both regimes. Direct foreign investment has a negative effect in first regime and positive on the second one. Also the size of government has a negative effect on economic growth in both regimes.

The quality of human force is one of the effective factors on economic growth. Classical time series methods do not have the ability to estimate models that have moments conditions. Since economic growth is influenced by past values, we need a dynamic model and it should be estimated by dynamic econometric method. This study by GMM method in time series evaluate the effect of human capital on economic growth during 1981-2019.Human capital is a latent variable in economics and often is replaced by alternative proxies. Based on theoretical foundations, it is argued that the human capital index in addition to the education aspect is influenced by other aspects such as; skill and health. Therefore, in this study, by using fuzzy logic, an indicator for human capital in the Iranian economy has been made that considers three main aspects (education, skills and health) of human capital. The results of index estimation showed that the organizing of human capital has grown significantly. The results of estimating the economic growth model using the fuzzy human capital index showed that promoting the level of human capital increases economic growth. Other results indicate the positive effect of the variables such as; governmental expenditures, industrialization, physical capital and economic growth of the previous period on Iran's economic growth. Also, trade freedom and urbanization negatively impact on Iran's economic growth.

To describe the interdependence of risk between 5 selected banks including EN, Parsian, Mellat, Saderat and Tejarat and the whole banking system, the conditional value at risk (CoVaR) and the Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) along with the Markov switching model have been used for time period June 17, 2009 to May 7, 2019. How CoVaR changes over time for the whole system subject to risk in each bank is plotted and examined. Also ∆COVaR (DCC) and MES are calculated for the whole system subject to crisis in each of the banks. According to the average ∆COVaR (DCC) criterion, Mellat, Parsian, Saderat, Tejarat and EN banks have the greatest effect on the whole banking system, respectively. The dynamics of changes in risk calculated according to ∆COVaR (DCC) and MES criteria are almost similar or confirmed by another measure with a very short time delay. The amount of risk calculated according to the MES criterion is much higher than the amount of risk calculated according to the measure.