فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 88 (پاییز 1400)

The main purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of banking crisis using the second generation of early warning systems (logit models), for 13 selected high-middle income countries over the period of 1980-2016. In this regard, two types of logit models; binomial and multinomial, are estimated. The results of estimated binomial logit model show that three leading indicators of the crisis are broad liquidity ratio, stock price index and inflation, which are the main causes of crisis in the studied countries. These variables account for about 17 percent of the probability of a banking crisis. Then, to avoid post-crisis bias, the multinomial logit model is estimated. The empirical results confirm that above three leading indicators are warning. Also, among the above three variables, only stock price index variable with a probability of 12.68%, causes the economy to exit the banking crisis and change its situation from the crisis/recovery period to the tranquil period. The multinomial logit model exhibit significantly better in-sample predictive abilities than the binomial logit model.

Since the beginning of the 2010s, the investment in Iran has experienced a continuous and severe fall and the level of the total real investment at the end of 2018 has approximately reached its 2002 level. In this paper, we show that the fluctuation of the investment (in machinery) up to the beginning of 2010s can be explained by the use of a regression model which includes macroeconomic variables as well as measures of instability in macro environment. However, this model is not able to predict the investment drop during the 2010s and it seems that other factors play a crucial role in the severe fall of the investment in this decade. We will introduce “Political Conflicts” and “Economic Policy Uncertainty” as two indices which are constructed by applying the text analysis method to the press and digital media from 2002 to 2019. The trend of these two indices show a high degree of uncertainty during the recent decade. We will show that the “Political Conflicts” index can explain the investment drop in the 2010s.

Many of the common natural resources of the world are in critical conditions. The solution to this crisis is the development of effective management institutions. However, there is no consensus on these institutions. Some economists believe that creating a privately owned entity can solve the management problems of these resources. Others support the control of resources by the central government. Some institutionalists consider the local management strategy as the solution to this crisis. In this study, an empirical meta-analysis was performed to examine what solution the Iranian studies on the management of water (as a common natural resource) have favored more and what factors they have considered for its success or failure. For this purpose, about 120 articles were collected from the Database of National Publications (Magiran), Noor Specialized Magazines Website (Noormags), Scientific Information Database (SID) of ACECR, and Comprehensive Portal of Humanities using ‘water management’ as the keyword. Seventy-three of these articles were related to the subject of the current study. The results of this research showed that most of these studies (about 70%) used a local participatory management solution and in order to investigate the reasons for its success or failure, they paid more attention to physical factors than institutional rules and arrangements. Thirty percent of the studies supported the market or government solution. In conclusion, this study suggests that more comprehensive approaches such as Ostrom’s analysis be used in future studies to find the most appropriate management method and its effectiveness in analyses so that common resources such as water can be managed more efficiently.

Banks have a considerable ability to use financial leverage compared to non-bank firms to earn high profits and returns with support of the central bank as a last resort lender. The ability of banks to use leverage depends on internal characteristics such as size, profitability and risk, as well as environmental variables such as inflation, which affect the Business cycle. This study aims to find the effects of these variables on the dependency of banks on financial leverage in recession and booms periods. To this end, Hodrick-Prescott filter was used to extract business cycles. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) based on the data from 18 Iranian banks during 2005-2018 was used in order to test the research hypotheses. The results show that larger banks are more inclined to leverage and economic conditions have no significant effect on this desire. Banks with better financial stability and less risk rely on lower financial leverage in times of economic prosperity. The effect of profitability criteria on the leverage of banks depends on economic conditions. In times of economic prosperity, banks with better profitability have a higher incentive to leverage. Also, how the inflation affects the financial leverage of banks depends on the economic conditions. During an economic boom, inflation encourages more reliance on leverage in banks.

In oil-exporting countries, it is important to have a clear evaluation of the oil sector at the national and regional levels. In input-output literature, the traditional and extraction methods are often used to analyze the status of economic sectors. These methods have two major shortcomings: double-counting of linkages and having a flaw to show the changes in income of the labor. In this paper, to overcome these shortcomings and to provide a more realistic picture of the status of the oil sector at national and regional levels, a comparative comparison has been used between Iran and Canada focusing on their two major oil-exporting provinces, Khuzestan and Alberta. For this purpose, the production-to-production approach based on the Sraffa-Pasinetti-Leontief theoretical model which its main concept is the induced effect of value-added will be used. The results show that the oil sector creates 0.0435 and 0.0372 units of induced value-added in Iran and Khuzestan. In Canada and Alberta the corresponding figures are 0.3173 and 0.4382. Therefore, this sector has more interdependency with the other sectors in both national and regional levels in Canada (as a well-developed country) than Iran (as a developing country). However, services and industry sectors absorbed more decomposed induced value-added of the oil sector in comparison to other sectors. Therefore, national and regional policies should be implemented to have diversified products and prepare the requirement of having the most of interdependency prerequisites between the sectors.

This study investigated the factors that leads to economic uncertainty which may influence the petrochemical companies returns in various market conditions regarding their various levels of capital. To meet this object, we used quarterly data on government’s current expenditures, general government revenues, liquidity, GDP, and exchange rate, as the political variables for the years 1384-1397. Considering the type of available time series, we exercised the ARIMA-GARCH model to create an indicator to show the uncertainty of economic policies. We used the result to estimate the quantile regression model, along with other factors affecting corporate returns, including the price of the OPEC oil basket and the real rate of returns and market exchange rate. The results of this study indicated that in the bearish market, the greatest negative effect of each economic policy uncertainty is on the companies with lesser capital. Moreover, the intensity of this effect decreases as the market tends to change from bearish to bullish, and finally the economic policy uncertainty will have the least impact on companies with bigger capital.

The purpose of this study is to identify the pattern of quantitative changes in budget bills in the Iranian parliament. Analyzing the Iranian parliament's role in budgeting shows that 30 percent of the general budget increases have occurred in the parliament in the 24 past years. The parliament has played a stabilizing role and increasing public expenditures. Political alignment periods have not made a significant difference in budget changes in parliament. In the political change years (the last year of the government and the first year of the parliament), the total growth of the general budget expenditures of the bill has been significantly higher than the other years. Organizations outside the executive branch have more bargaining and rent-seeking power. They have the largest budget increases in the parliament by a share of 76 percent. The study shows that the parliament in Iran has unlimited powers in amending the budget bills. This conclusion is without considering the qualitative changes in the notes of the single article of the budget؛ if these qualitative changes are also considered, the role of the parliament will increase in the budget changes.