نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 48 (زمستان 1400)

Economic growth, one of the most important macroeconomic goals of the nations has always been at the center of the attention of economists, politicians, and policymakers.Hence, identifying the factors stimulating, improving and accelerating it is of special importance and necessity. Among the factors, exports have played a very critical role in economic growth of countries since long. In this article, applying the method of decision tree diagnosis, the binding constraints of export led growth in Iran are indentified.The results show that as long as the price non-competitiveness is concerned, the binding constraints include micro risks (high corruption), macrorisks (high budget deficit), and high costs of production (low labor productivity). Concerning the low income elasticity of demand for exports, the binding constraints include low quality of export products (weak technology) and low value added of export commodities (weak institutions and small market size). In addition to this, the results show that the non-competetiveness of prices, as compared to, low income elasticity of demand for exports, is recognized as the main (or binding) constraint of Iran's exports.

Unequal distribution of income and wealth in society will cause serious problems in the economic, social and political spheres. In this regard, tax resources are the most important tools of the government to improve and redistribute income. Considering the role and importance of taxes in income distribution in society, this study intends to evaluate the tax system in terms of income distribution in the provinces of the country using data from 2006 to 2016 and the generalized torque model. In this regard, the effect of corporate income tax, income tax on individuals, wealth tax, tax on goods and services, inflation rate, unemployment rate and GDP per capita on the Gini coefficient (income distribution inequality index) has been studied. The results of model estimation show that the effect of taxes on goods and services of the provinces and the unemployment rate of the provinces on the Gini coefficient is positive. In other words, examining the relationship between these variables and the Gini coefficient shows that these variables are directly related to the Gini coefficient. As these variables increase, the Gini coefficient increases and income inequality increases. The effect of income tax on legal entities (companies) of provinces, tax on income of natural persons, provinces, GDP per capita of provinces and wealth tax of provinces on Gini coefficient is negative and significant, in other words, these variables are inversely related to Gini coefficient. As variables increase, the Gini coefficient decreases.

The globalization and increasing convergence of economies and markets, the expansion of international relations and the increase in global trade have raised the issue of how the monetary policy changes in large economies such as the United States and Euro area countries may affect the other countries. In this paper, we use a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) approach to assess the spillover of ECB policy on Iran according to trade channel. Subsequently, we use the Factor Analysis to construct a synthetic index of overall Euro area monetary conditions (MCI) over the period of 2001:1-2019:4. This MCI captures both conventional and unconventional policies in Euro area countries . We find that a monetary tightening leads to a drop in Iran’s production, export, and import, peaking after 6, 5 and 6 seasons. Furthermore, the ECB policy leads to a significant depreciation and higher inflation in Iran. The results are robust than the order of variables.

Considering that one of the requirements of economic development in any country, is to reduce poverty and increase the economic welfare of the people. Exploring this important issue, without identifying the factors affecting poverty and the contextual relationship between them along, will not be possible. The purpose of this study, is to examine poverty and explore its effective factors alongwith the content relationship between factors in Iran with a systems engineering methodology will be utilized and identifying the external and strategic factors of the system as policy tools to pave the way for increasing the efficiency of economic policy makers in the field of poverty. Therefore, using related research, 9 factors affecting poverty have been identified and then each of them has been explained. Then Interpretive Structural Modeling and concept star software willbe used, and a hierarchical system will be presented. according to the research findings, the 4 components of micro facilities, Education, grants and social security were considered as exogenous and strategic factors of the system of factors affecting poverty that can be used as policy variables by policy makers.

Speculation in the housing market is one of the main causes of fluctuations and shocks in the housing market that have destructive effects on the macroeconomic variables. In this study, the spatial pattern of speculation in the housing market of 22 districts of Tehran has been investigated. The research period was 2001 to 2019 and Nonlinear Least Squares (NLS) method was used to estimate the model. The results indicate that the motivation for speculation is the result of price expectations and price trend analysis of previous periods, which was reflected in the form of speculation demand in the market and had a significant impact on fluctuations in the housing market. Also, due to the low elasticity of housing supply, it can be concluded that increasing the speed of production and strengthening the supply side, can be a key factor in controlling market fluctuations by responding to the demand for speculation. The results show that the intensity of speculation in areas 1, 2, 3, 5 and 22 of Tehran is higher than other areas and by moving from north to south of Tehran, the intensity of speculation has decreased. According to the results of the research, the beginning of speculation in region 1 of Tehran started before 2001 in the housing market and for other regions of Tehran, the time of speculation started after 2001.

This study examines the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy, economic growth, governance quality, and CO2 emissions as an indicator of environmental quality in Asian developed and developing countries during 1996-2019. The short-run panel causality test results reveal unidirectional causality from GDP to non-renewable energy and validate the conservation hypothesis in all two panels. Moreover, there is evidence of a short-run unidirectional causality from GDP to CO2 emissions and governance quality. The results of panel DOLS indicate a positive impact of GDP and non-renewable energy on CO2 emissions. Also, we find that an increase in renewable energy and improving the quality of governance lead to reductions in CO2 emissions. According to these results, we can suggest replacing non-renewable energy resources with renewable energy resources through restrictive policies for non-renewable energy and incentive policies for renewable energy. Furthermore, planning and goal setting in terms of governance indicators and moving towards good governance by all government, institutions, and private sectors can lead to moving towards sustainable development.