نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی
پیاپی 79 (بهار 1401)

Recently, high extreme and frequency distribution of higher sequence of precipitation have been attended more. Through this, because of geographical characteristics of each area, diverse and different thresholds have been presented and utilized for the mentioned precipitation’s characteristics. Through the present research, for exploring and analyzing the extreme precipitation event in Tehran through the 1983-2016 statistical periods, some of the indexes presented by World Meteorological Organization Committee were utilized.
Data and

The extreme precipitation event distribution sequence behavior and frequency analyses and severity of the mentioned event were explored by using the Peak Over Threshold value model (POT). Selecting the suitable threshold for calculating the peaks higher than threshold using the 95 percentile methods, Mean of Remaining Life (MRL) and Model-Base Controlling (MBC) was done. Distribution parameters’ determining by maximum likelihood method and evaluating the occurrence and extreme events’ severity was investigated by using the Average Returning Intervals (ARLs).

The results accessed from Man-Kendal illustrated that in the studying stations, the significance process in the extreme indexes through the 1983-2016 was not met.

Exploring the development curves showed that through the 34-year-old statistical period (1983-2016), most of the observed extreme events in the stations had 1 to 10 years return. Q-Q exploring charts and χ2 statistics showed that POT model included the high quality for modeling the extreme events in the studying area

Planning as a regulatory process between public and private goals, as a result of the actions of individuals and groups deviates from its regulatory path and acts in a specific direction. This competition, influenced by power, has its own manifestation in the urban environment. The urban revolution and the consideration of the city as a spatial object, according to Lefebvre, put this socio-economic entity on a path that was increasingly attacked by capitalism, and the reproduction of artificial spaces for the accumulation of capital intensified. This reproduction is done in a set of rules and regulations and management policies that should, in fact, allocate space for public use, While the objective function of this city management organization has collapsed in favor of capital. This point has its own conditions in cities with rentier system. This is because in rentier systems, decentralization policies and, consequently, the strengthening of local institutions and urban management, in the absence of democratic conditions, have created a suitable environment for creating various types of rents and sometimes corruption. When urban space is considered as a commodity for possession, in this process urban management has its own impact. Sometimes as a law enforcement officer and sometimes as a competitor with private capital over urban space. All of this can be described as rent-seeking, in which individuals and groups try to divert resources to their advantage. All of these influences and everything that happens in the urban space are based on factors and contexts that seem to be rooted in the rentier political economy that governs the city system. Therefore, the present study tries to identify and explain the effective factors and contexts.

The present study can be considered as applied in terms of purpose, although it has also been developed and theoretically explained. Also, the approach is descriptive-analytical, which based on the data obtained from documentary studies, as well as conducting interviews and using a questionnaire, has analyzed the context of rent in Tabriz Municipality. For conducting interviews, open-ended questions have been designed and presented to a number of managers and experts in the field of urban management in the metropolis of Tabriz. The results, after theoretical saturation and combination with the results of documentary studies, are extracted in the form of propositions and form the basis of a questionnaire that is left to the judgment of elites and experts to determine the importance and degree of effectiveness of each criterion in the occurrence of rent and rent-seeking phenomenon. For this purpose, the Mick Mac questionnaire was used. This method is based on the analysis of interaction / structural effects.

The requirement for analyzing variables using Mick Mac software is to determine their interactions in the form of an effect matrix that acts as software input. To do this, a 39 * 39 matrix was set and the relationships between the variables in terms of effectiveness were determined based on the opinions of selected experts in a purposeful sampling way. The number of repetitions considered in the software is twice and the degree of filling is 68.63%. This indicates that they have affected each other in more than 68% of cases. Out of 1269 relationships that can be evaluated in the matrix, 580 cases were unrelated (number zero), 379 cases were weak relationship (number one), 585 cases were moderate relationship (number two) and 305 cases were strong relationship (number three). The pattern of distribution of research variables indicates that the system is unstable. The distribution model shows that macroeconomic factors of political economy generally have high impact and low impressible, and in contrast, the factors that are most impressible are the result of decisions and macro-political and economic environment. Such a situation indicates the power of external and extra-organizational factors to determine the status of the system. impressible factors or results are also factors that are affected by the macro-political environment and political economy and operate mostly at the organizational and local level, in other words, they are the output of the performance of macro-decisions and events. In the structural / interaction analysis matrix, the sum of the row numbers for each variable indicates the effect of the variable and the sum of the columns of each variable indicates its Impressive. According to the matrix results, the variables related to the "political economy factor" have the most impact on the system (the occurrence of the rent phenomenon) and the variables related to the "psychological factor" have the least impact. Also in terms of impressiveness, the variables related to "organizational factor" have the most impressiveness and the variables related to "legal factor" have the least. Based on the results of direct and indirect effects, the variable of power centers has the highest score. Also, all the identified key variables from rank one to 16 are repeated in direct and indirect impact, and the differences are only in their rank.

The present study seeks to identify and explain the factors affecting the formation of the phenomenon of rent and rent-seeking in the urban management organization. For this purpose, while conducting interviews with experts and managers related to urban management, first, 39 variables under 7 factors of political, political, economic, legal, organizational, socio-cultural and psychological economics were extracted. In the next step, using a questionnaire, the effectiveness of these variables was determined using the interaction / structural impact analysis method. In the next step, Mick Mac software was used to identify how the variables affect each other and identify key factors. The results of the software output can be summarized as follows; - Based on the pattern of distribution of variables, the system has an unstable state and the types of variables - influential, impressive, independent, regulatory and two-dimensional - can be identified in it. - The most effective is related to the variables of "political economy" and the least effective is related to the variables of "psychological". - In terms of impressiveness, the most impressiveness is related to "organizational" factor variables and the lowest impressiveness is related to "legal" factor variables. The key variables resulting from direct and indirect effects are identified as 16 variables, all of which are fixed and the differences are only related to their rank. These variables include; Centers of power, oil economy, lack of transparency, Clientelism policy, centralism, establishment of rentier state, weakness of popular institutions, government tenure, political influence, electoral assistance, desirability of rent-seeking among social groups, golden signatures, lobbying, the prevailing spirit of rent-seeking, the rule of the technocratic tradition among managers and the legal cases underlying rent. - Variables related to political economy are generally variables that have macro dimensions and in most cases are beyond the control of the local level of urban management. Local level variables are generally related to organizational factors that are generally the result of the performance of macro factors such as political economy. On the other hand, the variables related to political economy can be described as contextual variables that use their micro-organizational variables as tools to make their impact operational.

In many developing countries, cities have emerged as engines of economic growth by providing a variety of opportunities. However, high population growth in urban areas has put a lot of pressure on natural resources (Dambeebo and Jalloh, 2018: 235). Governments in developed and developing countries also use policies to counter the effects of urbanization. One of these policies is the issue of sustainable development (Abu Bakar and Cheen, 2013: 484). The social dimension is an important component of sustainable development. While the discourse of sustainable development is largely limited to environmental and economic concerns (Hemani et al, 2012: 783-784). The overall goal of social sustainability seems to be social justice (Koglin, 2009: 13). In the present study, an attempt has been made to measure the indicators of sustainable social development in Iranian metropolises by using Edas and Mairca technique. 

In the present study, by using the Edas and Mairca techniques, the indicators of sustainable social development in Iranian metropolises have been investigated. The metropolises studied in this study were Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz and Qom. The most important indicators used in the Edas and Mairca are: number of public indoor sports facilities covered by the municipality, area of ​​public indoor sports facilities covered by the municipality, number of public outdoor sports facilities covered by the municipality, area of ​​the premises Public sports covered by the municipality, number of libraries and study halls, area of ​​libraries and study halls, number of cultural centers covered by the municipality, area of ​​cultural centers covered by the municipality, number of urban parks, number of forest parks, number of cinemas, Number of cinemas, number of cinema seats, center for social injuries, number of medical centers contracted by the Social Security Organization and number of hospitals contracted by the Social Security Organization. 

In most of the studied indicators on social development, Tehran metropolis has the most positive distance from the average. The results of using the Edas technique show that Tehran metropolis had the highest score with a score of (0.998), Isfahan metropolis with a score of (0.201) and Mashhad metropolis with a score of (0.189) had the highest score, respectively. The final score was Tabriz metropolis (0.143), Shiraz metropolis (0.100) and Qom metropolis (0.008). The results of Mairca technique show that Tehran metropolis with a score of (0.0049) has the highest scores of sustainable social development indicators. Isfahan metropolis with the highest score (0.1410) after Tehran had the highest score. The metropolis of Mashhad has gained the most points after gaining points (0.1462) after the metropolises of Tehran and Isfahan. The score of Tabriz (0.1520), Shiraz (0.1540) and Qom (0.1612) was gained. 

Comparative comparison of the results of Edas and Mairca techniques shows similar results and in these two techniques, Tehran metropolis has had the highest score. In the studied indices in the model of Edas and Mairca, Isfahan metropolis had the highest score after Tehran metropolis. The metropolis of Mashhad has had the highest score after the metropolis of Isfahan. In this regard, after Mashhad metropolis, Tabriz, Shiraz and Qom metropolises have obtained the most points, respectively. The results obtained in both techniques indicate inequality due to the difference in points between the studied metropolises.

Rural tourism is one of the suitable alternatives to implement the requirements of sustainable development, environmental sustainability, community and economy of rural areas, job creation, public and private investment, improvement of infrastructure, and economic benefits in rural areas. Rural tourism activities are small businesses that can respond quickly to new needs and markets, which is itself an introduction to a diversity of novelties. Various thinkers advocate entrepreneurship as an elixir for many social and environmental worries. In rural areas, factors such as the development of human driving force, the quality of the workforce, increasing the quality of management, development of education and technology are effective in tourism entrepreneurship. Consequently, entrepreneurship in the field of tourism and the use of natural and synthetic capacities depend on the availability of human drivers. The townships of Filestān village in Pakdasht city have many agricultural, historical and natural attractions, also are considered the most important centers of rural tourism, desert ecotourism, mountain eco-tourism, and flower tourism (tourism based on the cultivation of flowers and ornamental plants). Therefore, regarding the mentioned capacities and potentials, the study area can create jobs and develop entrepreneurship in the field of tourism, directly and indirectly. Therefore, entrepreneurship in the field of sustainable rural tourism can be considered as a corridor to attain sustainable development in the villages of the region. Due to the development of tourism in this region and the increasing number of visitors to this village, this study tries to study the human drivers of tourism entrepreneurship and its impact on sustainable rural development in the study area. 

 The current study is Practical due to the nature of the subject. The information required for the research was obtained using field and library methods. The statistical population of the study was non-native tourists who visited the villages of Filestān rural district in spring and autumn of 2019. Since the total size of the statistical population was unknown and the variance of the statistical population was unknown, the statistical population of this study was determined to be 170 non-native tourists. The questionnaire was provided to tourists as a research tool in the form of convenience sampling. The validity of the questionnaires was confirmed according to the expert professors of geography and rural planning. Its reliability was obtained by Cronbach's alpha method and data analysis was performed using SPSS software and ARAS, WASPAS, and CODAS techniques. 

 After determining the research criteria via library studies, a questionnaire was prepared based on these criteria, and validation and reliability were provided to the statistical community. In the first step, regarding the growth of entrepreneurship in the field of rural tourism in the region and the high importance of the issue from the point of view of local people and officials, the WASPAS technique has been used to achieve more accurate results and to rank villages in terms of human propulsion. The results of the WASPAS technique reveal that different dimensions of human propulsion in Golzar village (in this village, Qi is equal to 0.1121) had the greatest impact on the process of entrepreneurship development in the field of rural tourism among the villages of this village. In the second step; regarding the effects of entrepreneurship on the development of sustainable rural tourism in Filestān rural area and the sensitivity of the issue in terms of environmental protection and rich culture and local identity of rural people, in this study, the CODAS technique is used to achieve more accurate results and to rank villages. Based on the CODAS technique, it shows that the effects of entrepreneurship on the development of sustainable rural tourism in Golzar and Filestān villages have been more than other villages in Filestān rural area. In the last stage, using the ARAS technique, the degree of sustainability of villages in the Filestān rural area has been studied and measured in environmental, physical, economic, social, and institutional dimensions. According to Ki, Golzar and Filestān villages are the first ranks among the other villages in Filestān rural district in terms of sustainability. The results of the ARAS model (ranking of villages in terms of sustainability) and CODAS model (effects of entrepreneurship on sustainable rural tourism development) and WASPAS technique (status of human drivers of sustainable rural tourism entrepreneurship development) are completely consistent. Golzar village is in the first place in terms of sustainability indicators, entrepreneurship effects, and the status of human drivers of entrepreneurship development.

Entrepreneurship growth in rural areas can be considered as a policy based on geographical reconstruction in rural areas, which can lead to a new spatial division of labor, energy, and resources, and ultimately, lead to a change in the quality of life of rural people according to sustainable development theory. In which different dimensions of entrepreneurship development and existing perspectives appear as the main components and ultimately create a combined approach to entrepreneurship development in rural areas. Entrepreneurship growth in Golzar village as an important strategy in rural development has been able to reduce the use of natural resources due to the expansion of modern greenhouses and hydroponic cultivation, minimizing the loss of resources by modern irrigation technologies, maintaining environmental quality, and biodiversity conservation. At the level of Golzar and Filestān villages, tourism and entrepreneurship in this field, in addition to generating income from new sources, has increased villagers' self-confidence, participation, and social cohesion and foresight, as well as achieving sustainable tourism development by gaining access to modern technologies, increasing income and capital, accessing more appropriate physical infrastructure and utilizing more knowledge and skills. According to the familiarity gained from the rural community under study, in the process of strengthening entrepreneurship in the field of sustainable rural tourism, human resource and sociological variables, especially motivational factors, play a key role. Because no development can happen without the participation, social cohesion and discipline, social security, and self-confidence of rural stakeholders and local communities.

Tabriz city, the largest metropolis in northwestern Iran, has a privileged and strategic position in Iran due to its location on the political and cultural borders and in the transit route of neighboring countries (former the Soviet Union, Turkey and Iraq). In the current situation, due to the large number and variety of threats and the establishment of a large number of centers of gravity in this city, the probability of injuries has increased sharply; As a result of this, in order to improve the security of the city, by examining the vulnerability of the centers of gravity against potential threats based on the safety considerations of passive defense, the necessity of intervening is a very smart affair.

This research in terms of purpose is applied-developmental with a descriptive-analytical approach, and the method of collecting data is in the form of documents, library and field surveys (questionnaire and survey of 20 experts in the fields of urban planning, architecture and passive defense) have been. In the methodological discussion, first, the literature on the three concepts of threat, vulnerability and passive defense requirements in the field of urban planning in Iran and other countries, To identify assets and identify potential threats to those assets as influential factors in the vulnerability of gravity centers in the ten metropolitan areas of Tabriz, has to be studied. By selecting the latest questionnaire models prepared by the Passive Defense Organization of Iran, determining the grading of gravity centers and basic threat assessment of centers of gravity was done by provincial experts and experts of the statistical community. To determine the importance coefficient of graded gravity centers, using ANP network analysis and Super-Decision software (by determining the correlation and comparisons of standard pairs and indices by experts in the statistical community), unbalanced, balanced, and limited matrices were formed, followed by the determination of the importance coefficients of Centers gravity were determined; Then, the criteria and indicators of the research were prepared in a categorical manner. Spatial maps of all layers related to criteria and indicators in the GIS environment related to Arc-Map software were overlapped by applying the coefficient of importance and evaluating the appropriate distance from the objectives, criteria, and indicators with emphasis on the underlying threat. In the end, the vulnerability zoning map of the centers of gravity of the ten areas of metropolitan Tabriz was prepared.

This research process is as follows:Using a quantitative model to determine the levels of gravity centers of Tabriz metropolis, showed that out of 32 selected assets, 17 assets are classified as vital and sensitive centers and 15 assets as important and maintainable centers. The result is the existence of numerous vital and sensitive centers; By creating several important centers instead of a single vital and sensitive center and increasing the distribution of important centers in the city, effective action to improve the security of the city against military attacks is one of the key issues in discussing harm and threat in passive defense.Based on the quantitative threat model affecting the assets of Tabriz metropolis, the threat of air and missile attacks was selected from the possible threats of sabotage, terrorism, cyber and people-centered protests, and missile and air attacks as the base threat. This threat has overshadowed its damage. The result indicates that this threat dominates the city over assets, so missile and air strikes as a basic threat in modeling, network analysis, and standardization of layers in the GIS environment.By calculating the final map related to the vulnerability of ten metropolitan areas of Tabriz through fuzzy overlap functions in the ARC- GIS environment based on 22 effective indicators obtained from the model of determining the level of centers of gravity, in the form of 5 criteria of vital arteries, crisis management centers, military and law enforcement centers , Urban equipment and support centers, the basic threat of air and missile attacks and determining the significance coefficient of criteria and indicators were obtained in network analysis software using SuperDecision method of damage zoning in Tabriz. Vulnerability zoning of Tabriz city is classified into five classes: Zone with very low vulnerability of 13.7%, Zone with the low vulnerability of 9.5%, Zone with medium vulnerability of 23.5%, Zone with high vulnerability of 32.3% and Zone with the vulnerability of very much 21% of the total area of Tabriz metropolis. The result of this is far from the principles and considerations of passive defense and intensifies the spatial vulnerability of the city and requires the development of a strategy based on the principles of passive defense to eliminate the vulnerability of the city.A very important conclusion that was obtained based on the average model of the nearest neighbors, the average distance expected from the centers of gravity of Tabriz metropolis is calculated to be 455 meters, while the average distance of existing centers of gravity is 264 meters, which indicates the ratio of the closest The neighborhood is 0.58. The result of this ratio and the p and z values of the model shows the cluster distribution of the centers of gravity of Tabriz. This is far from the principles and considerations of passive defense and aggravates the spatial vulnerability of the city.Based on the studies of the SWAT model, the conclusion of evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of internal factors by studying and identifying vital, sensitive, and important centers in the metropolis of Tabriz city, indicates that the weaknesses of the city are more than its strengths. As a result, strategies should be formulated in such a way that their strengths are addressed to eliminate their weaknesses from the perspective of passive defense principles. The result of measuring the external environment to identify the opportunities and threats of the city in relation to the analysis of defense elements indicates that the opportunities for advancing the city are less than the threat, so strategies should be formulated in a way that can improve measures and repair existing threats and failures. Do different cities; The combination of the above two strategies indicates the development of defensive strategies as the main objectives of this study in the metropolis of Tabriz in order to reduce the vulnerability and threats to eliminate the vulnerability of the city.

Some defensive strategies in order to improve the quality of passive defense in Tabriz are presented as follows:1- Parallel access networks should be organized in accordance with the hierarchical system. Establish safe havens against threats at the point of rupture between tissues;
2- Create a suitable distance between the bridges and create complementary communication routes next to the bridges;
3- Underpass and metro networks should be organized for multi-purpose use and temporary accommodation;
4- Construction rules should be observed in the area of faults and rivers. Create proportionate functions in these areas;
5- Dilapidated and compacted tissues in the city center should be reconstructed according to the requirements of passive defense. Create green spaces and neighborhood parks to create temporary shelter spaces and blast waves;
6- Prevent the establishment of sensitive and dangerous centers inside dense tissues. These centers should be moved to low-density areas and open spaces that are close enough to residential areas;
7- The satellite cities of Tabriz should play a functional role in synergistic activities. These satellite cities play a role in establishing industrial activities and sensitive facilities for their dispersal;
8- To reduce the immigration rate of Tabriz city. Excess population to settle in suburban areas and interconnected cities;
9- To reduce the concentration of hazardous and polluting industrial activities in the west of Tabriz;
10- Using green spaces with tall and umbrella trees within the confines of facilities and equipment, in order to create natural camouflage and develop green belts and improve the quality of the environment;
11- Decentralization of the establishment of a large number of sensitive and important centers in the form of clusters in the central core of the city, especially in areas 8, 3, and 4, which should be done step by step due to the high cost;
12- Decentralization of population density from zones 1 and 10 based on the principles of passive defense;
13- Maintaining the proximity of endangered land uses with areas 5, 9, and 6 and part of 7 with relatively low population density, which are almost desirable and well located;
14- Basic action should be taken to remove military centers in the form of creating multi-purpose and recreational uses due to excessive accumulation of military, industrial, facilities, and urban equipment in the southern, southwestern, and northern suburbs of the city, which are endangered uses.
A basic action to remove a number of sensitive land uses and vital artery transfer centers (which are constructive and mobile urban elements) from sparsely populated areas 2, 1, 9, and 5, in the form of creating land uses. Multifunctional and recreational, to be done. Transfer some of them to areas 6, 4, 3, 10, 8, and part of 7 (areas 10, 8, and to some extent 4 have a dense population);
16- Basic action to adjust the ignition uses due to more accumulation and lack of open and green space in the central areas of the city, and 8, 2 and to some extent 3;
Although areas 6, part of 7, and to some extent 4 have the most open and green spaces, the existence of large industrial uses with transnational products (tractor and machine building) and the airport has threatened these areas. This requires preventing the development of the city towards these areas;
18- Due to the circular structure of Tabriz, the existence of unsuitable arterial networks in areas 1, 10, and 8, which have a high population density, have small and old parts, and have a suburban texture of the city. In these vulnerable areas, safe points and networks of appropriate thoroughfares should be established and repaired in order to guide the population in times of crisis;
Lack of optimal distribution of relief and hospital centers in the city can be seen. So that the central saturation areas and suburban areas, including areas 9, 5, 6, and to some extent 3 and 7 do not have this use. This makes it difficult to provide optimal service operations in times of crisis;
Necessary action should be taken regarding the camouflage and concealment of urban facilities with high identification capabilities, such as high-voltage power substations, gas pressure reduction substations, and water tanks that are distributed in urban areas;
Establishing several important centers instead of single sensitive centers and adopting safe spaces in them is one of the key measures to improve the level of security in military attacks.

In 2016, almost 55% of the world’s population were living in cities which is anticipated to amount to 66% by 2050. As the population grows, competition between cities as tourism destinations also grows (Boivin & Tanguay, 2019:67). Tourism is a major industry globally, with so many people spending their time in recreation and travel each year (Taghvaei & Jozi-Khamsalouei, 2016:163). This rapidly growing industry which is affecting economies considerably (Bazrafshan & Bameri, 2018:168), is becoming one of the main components of the world’s trade shortly (Taghvaei & Hosseini-Khah, 2017:9). Today, tourists seek to gain more interactive and satisfying experiences, as creative tourism can be an effective way to connect this (Mohammadi et al. 2016:5). Creative tourism is gaining momentum and seeks to provide modern tourism development strategies (Kiani Salmi & Safari, 2017:117). Creative tourism paves the way for societies to achieve development (Saniei et al. 2014:84). With an oil-dependent economy, Iran has not done non-oil economy and revenue generation through other channels; thus, it should seriously engage in tourism (Taghvaei et al. 2013:172) because it enjoys the potential to become a strong tourism hub.Meanwhile, creative tourism refers to a more developed form of tourism that has a rich historical and cultural background in Iran, especially in Isfahan (Shafie et al. 2014:251), which enjoys nationally and internationally-recognized attractions and draws many tourists from all over Iran and the world (Taghvaei & Izadi, 2012:32). Therefore, given the positive outcomes that tourism may bring about for cities and also the role of the city of Isfahan as a tourism city, the present research investigates the most important components affecting the creative tourism development in Isfahan and emphasizes tourism attractions. It also seeks to answer the following questions: What is the distribution of tourism attractions in Isfahan? And What are the most important components affecting the development of creative tourism in Isfahan?

The present research falls under applied-developmental studies in terms of goals and uses a descriptive-analytical method from a methodological perspective. Data required were gathered from library and document sources and field surveys. A research questionnaire was developed using indicators extracted from books, scientific articles, views, and related theories in creative tourism, including four dimensions and 29 indicators. Also, factorial analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (TOPSIS and SAW), Partially Ordered Set (POSET) methods, and entropy coefficient were used to analyze the data.According to Isfahan’s Handicraft and Tourism Organization, the statistical population was 850000 in 2018. The Cochran formula yielded a total sample size of 385 tourists and officials working in the tourism sector (Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization) selected via the snowball sampling method.

Factor analysis model findings suggest that social-cultural (9 variables), artistic-cultural (6 variables), structural-institutional (7 variables), and finally economic (6 variables) factors were the most important factors affecting the materialization of creative tourism in the city of Isfahan, which could explain 49.73% of the total variance. AHP, TOPSIS and SAW methods were used to prioritize the indicators. Also, the POSET method was used to rank the indicators.Model findings of the cultural dimension suggest that the criterion of official attention to the cultural heritage, learning experiences and new skills and holding handicraft industries workshops are ranked first to third, respectively. Model finding of the structural dimension also suggests that creativity in design, standard location and quality of tourism infrastructure, and the effects of night transportation on the use of tourism attractions take first to third ranks, respectively. The prioritization of social dimension indicators reveals that the sub-criterion of security and peace of mind in tourism spaces, greater interaction between people and tourists and holding sports-cultural games take first to third priorities. As regards the economic dimension, components of handicrafts industries marketing, appropriate distribution of sale centers and diversity of tourism services consistent with all income groups are ranked first to third. In the meantime, the entropy coefficient for the distribution of attractions in the city of Isfahan was 0.5, which indicates a greater concentration and imbalanced distribution of the attractions in the municipal districts of the city.  It is thus required to develop and balance new attractions fundamentally.

With so many historical sites, the metropolis of Isfahan is considered one of the most popular tourist hubs in Iran, which necessitates tourism planning for this city. The distribution of tourism attractions in Isfahan indicates greater concentration and imbalanced distribution of the attractions in municipal areas of the city. Despite the large number of tourists flowing into this city, their presence is limited to some areas, with people of Isfahan themselves having to travel longer distances to see the attractions. Thus, one of the critical solutions is to employ successfully implemented models and ideas for creating new attractions in areas which lack attractions. Also, to materialize creative tourism in Isfahan, it is imperative to provide planning on major components and indicators and understand and prioritize these indicators so that creative tourism is developed and implemented.

Climate extreme events have expanded and intensified during the 21st century. Extreme precipitation event annually leads to severe damage in agriculture, environment, infrastructures and even the human loss. Therefore, identification of the behavior of such events is one of the pivotal aspects of climatic change and the increase of information about extreme precipitation is tangibly necessary for the society especially with regard to those, living in the areas with high risk of flood. extreme precipitation events can be defined as significant deviations from the precipitation mean. As a result, to identify such precipitations, a criterion was needed to evaluate the rate of precipitation values’ deviation from mean. Importantly, given the different types of indicators and thresholds proposed for extracting extreme precipitation, choosing an appropriate threshold with climatology conditions of the study region which could also be capable of identifying extreme precipitation optimally in terms of amount and frequency, requires high precision. The present study aimed at identifying the extreme precipitation events in the west of Iran through introducing the appropriate threshold and spatial scale for the extraction and investigation of these events.

The west of Iran with the areaof 230760 square  kilometers includes about 14% of total area of Iran. Zagros Mountains, stretching from northwest to southeast, are the most important feature of the west of Iran. Two databases have been used in this study. The first database regardsthe precipitation data of 1129 synoptic stations, climatology and rain gauge in the west of Iran. The stations statistics have been checked in terms of existence of any outlier. Ultimately 823 stations out of 1129, were used for producing gridded data. The gridded data, are the results from the interpolation of daily precipitation observations since January 1st 1965 to December 31st 2016, using Kriging interpolation method and spatial separation of 6*6 kilometers. the final base, a matrix possessing the dimensions of18993*6410 (representing time on the rows and place on the columns) was developed. The second database referred to the Sea-level pressure patterns (Hectopascal).To identify such precipitations, in addition to the main threshold that includesthe mean of precipitation more than 75th percentile for each pixel per day of a year, a second threshold including the standard deviation of these precipitations (with the values of one, two, and three times more) has been also added to the mean. Accordingly, three groups of extreme precipitation were identified in the region which were separated according to the spatial zone that had been covered. Moreover, the sea-level pressure patterns were extracted with regard to these precipitations for each zone andthen classified using clustering analysis technique.

three groups of precipitations with different coverage zoneswere identified: 1- 83 days with equal to or more precipitation than the mean of precipitations more than 75th percentile plus one time standard deviation which cover more than 40% of the region. 2- 144 days with equal to or more precipitation than the mean of precipitations more than 75th percentile plus two times standard deviation which cover more than 20% of the region. 3- 82 days with equal to or more precipitation than the mean of precipitations more than 75th percentile plus three times standard deviation which cover more than 20%
The maps of 7 participation groups of the first type in comparison with 6 precipitation groups of the second and third type contain common and repetitive patterns. Each precipitation maps of the second and third types explains a type of patternand there is minimum overlapping in the maps. Therefore, the precipitations are obtained from the most particular and distinct atmospheric patterns. considering the three properties of 1- equality of precipitation groups of type two and three (both include 6 groups of atmospheric patterns). 2- repeating the atmospheric patterns of precipitation of type two prominently in the precipitations of type three. 3- the formation of the most optimum atmospheric modeling for the precipitations of both thresholds in the zones of 20% and higher, in the west of Iran, the extreme precipitations refer to those with higher means of recipitations more than 75th percentile plus two times standard deviations,have mostly occurred in the zone of 20% and higher of the region.

The concept of morphometry involves the measurement and numerical analysis of land surface, shape, dimensions and form of land. In relation to flooding, watershed morphometry includes quantitative indicators describing watershed physical characteristics that control the pattern and quantitative characteristics of floods such as amount, time of occurrence, delay time, and flow hydrograph. Unusual development of cities due to population growth and consequent land use change has caused disruption of hydrological balance and increased flooding of basins. The purpose of this study was to prioritize the sub-catchments of Zab River based on a novel combination of morphometric analysis and statistical correlation and zoning of flood potential under sub-catchments.

to disregard for human and social sub-basins, which has a great impact on the hydrological processes of the catchment. Based on the validation results, the Shinabad and Sufian basins have the highest priority, and the new method of morphometric analysis and statistical correlation have considered them the highest priority for managers' attention.The elongation ratio helps to understand the hydrological characteristics of the drainage basin and ranges from 1 for circular basins to 0 for extended basins and its high values ​​indicate the shape of the basin circle, high peak discharge and high flood potential. Is. The values ​​of tensile strength in all sub basins are more than 0.5 and indicate high potential for flooding. Straller (1964) considers the circle ratio a quantitative measure for visualizing the shape of the basin. High values ​​of this parameter indicate circular shape, high to medium ruggedness and low permeability in the basin, which causes peak discharge in less time. The ratio of the circular ratios under the Lavin Tea Basins is 0.17, Copar 0.19, and Zab Small 0.27, indicating relatively low flooding potential in this parameter. The amount of this parameter is 0.35 under Shinabad basin and 0.31 under Sufian basin which indicates their higher flood potential in this parameter (Table 7). The branching ratio is an important parameter affecting peak runoff hydrograph discharge with high values ​​indicating high instantaneous discharge and flood event. The mountainous and steep areas have a split ratio of 3 to 4. Branching ratio values ​​indicate low flooding potential except for Shinabad basin which shows this ratio of 6.19 and this ratio indicates high flood potential
 

Since hydrological units are based on morphometric parameters to prioritize flood mapping, firstly, using channel networks and elevation curves, topographic maps of 1: 50000 and digital elevation data are analyzed. The boundaries of the hydrological units became. Then, because the catchment morphological parameters have different effects on soil erosion processes and runoff formation, prioritization of the sub-basins was done in a new way based on the difference of morphological parameters and statistical correlation analysis between them. Morphometric parameters were calculated for all sub-basins in GIS software. Then, statistical correlation of morphometric parameters was performed based on the t-Kendall method using SPSS software. Based on the correlation matrix we can analyze the relationship between the parameters and define the relative weight for each parameter without All twelve variables including circular elongation ratio, branching ratio, flow frequency, drainage density, drainage texture, compaction index, shape factor, mean slope, roughness ratio, roughness, and roughness number for all sub-basins are calculated in Table 2. The Kendall correlation coefficient was used to investigate the relationship between Validation results showed that the new method of morphometric analysis and statistical correlation did not perform well in prioritizing all sub-basins, but this method was accurate in identifying the most priority sub-basins (most acute conditions). The reason for this may be due to the lower performance of morphometric analysis and the characterization of waterways in low-slope catchments. Also, the precise reason for not estimating the priority of some sub-basins is due.

The selected twelve parameters are directly related to runoff and flood potential. Therefore, high values ​​of parameters have a direct relationship with runoff and flood potential due to their greater impact on the selected twelve parameters. Indicator (Cv) values ​​for each sub-basin are obtained from averaging of 12 indices and accordingly sub-basins of Shinabad and Sufis with high flood potential, sub-basin with small potential and sub-basin zab basin. Copar and Lavin Tea have physiographic and morphometric characteristics of the sub-catchments have a great influence on flooding and hydrological behavior, it is possible to study the status and potential of flooding below the catchments. In this research, in order to potential of flooding, firstly, Zab sub-basins were prioritized based on the new method of morphometric analysis and statistical correlation. Based on this method, the results showed that the Shin abad and Sufi basins are the top priority for the implementation of management measures to ensure.

One of the physical factors in the development of Maragheh is the change of utilities and their conversion into residential use, which in turn have a direct impact on the process of physical development. The city of Maragheh is one of the most important cities in East Azerbaijan province, which has no exception to the rule of physical development. In this research, the characteristics of the city development process are examined physically. Statistics show the growing population in the city of Maragheh during the years 1966 to 2011. Understanding the factors affecting the physical expansion and development of cities helps understand urban growth and development trends. The study clarifies the factors that cause horizontal and physical growth of cities and, conversely, the repulsive factor of other parts of the city that are left behind by physical growth for any reason, and this explains the need for this research. The causes of urban growth are exactly the same as the origins of urban sprawl. In many cases, no distinction can be made between urban growth and urban sprawl however, it is important to have a clear understanding of the difference between urban sprawl and urban growth. The most imperative problems that have arisen from the uncontrolled growth of city due to physical development are the excessive use of land, the lack of sufficient urban facilities and equipment, the disconnection of the suburbs and thus adding to the urban problems. The purpose of this study is to study environmental and physical factors and their impact on the physical growth and development of Maragheh city and provide the best place for future development of the city. 

 In the present study, the criteria and sub-criteria and the relationships between them were first defined by the ANP method using Super Design software, and after obtaining the weight for each criterion and sub-criterion, the sub-criteria were first fuzzy and according to the weight of each of them the main criterion was obtained from the sum of these sub-criteria. Finally, the three main criteria of human, environmental and topographic parameters, considering their weight, have provided the main layer of the possibility of physical development of the city. Choosing a suitable method and approach for modeling a system depends entirely on the complexity of that system and complexity is inversely related to the amount of knowledge and understanding of our system. Fuzzy systems can be well used to model two main types of uncertainty in the phenomena. The first type is uncertainty due to the lack of knowledge and human tools in recognizing the complexities of a phenomenon.

Using the three main layers obtained for topographic, environmental and human criteria and according to the weight of each, the final location map of physical development of Maragheh city was obtained. The development map of Maragheh shows that the south-eastern parts are very unsuitable for physical development, while the north-eastern, north-western and south-western parts are suitable for development in terms of three environmental, human and topographic features. Environmental factors seem to have the greatest impact on the development and expansion of cities. According to our findings, and depicting the map of the city development over different years, the final map was obtained for the development of this city which is almost in line with the expansion of the city during the years 1996 to 2006 and 1976 to 1986. 

 With the arrival of the third wave of industrialization in Third World countries since the beginning of the twentieth century, production and income in cities, followed by increased demand for urban services and consequently urbanization has expanded. One of the effects of physical growth is related to the expansion of the outskirts of cities beyond the administrative boundaries of any city. Such urban development goes to areas outside the administrative boundaries and changes in land uses. The city of Maragheh has many limitations in terms of physical expansion due to the gardens around the city. In order to prevent the destruction of gardens and agricultural lands as well as physical expansion in line with natural and human criteria, extensive studies should be conducted. Information and data were applied in this study for the analysis of these parameters.The city of Maragheh needs to expand physically following the increase in population naturally and its increasing expansion goes on due to uncontrolled urban migration. In the present study, three main criteria of human, environmental and topography have been used. From the topographic criteria, the south-western parts are the most suitable places and the north-eastern parts of the city are the most unsuitable parts. In terms of environmental criteria, the western and south-western parts and to some extent parts of the north are suitable for development. Due to being a garden city, it is limited to gardens from the surroundings, which makes it difficult to expand from a human and environmental standards point of view. By combining three layers of environment, human and topography, the best place for the development of this city according to the final map was prepared for the optimal location of the future development the city based on ANP Fuzzy method by which it is more suitable in the west and north-west than in the south and south-west.Paying attention to horizontal expansion preserves the traditional texture of the city and single-storey buildings and prevents its vertical expansion. Although vertical expansion has advantages over horizontal spreading out, the current conditions of Maragheh city and its size, as well as its traditional texture and culture, make the need for horizontal expansion more tangible than vertical expansion.By using the right development model, both the traditional construction of the city can be preserved and the problems caused by sporadic development can be reduced, provided that the horizontal development goes in the direction that environmental and human conditions demand.

The implementation of the smart city requires a change in the governmental (institutional) and managerial structure. The government must engage with the private sector and civil society to enforce its rulings. The government must regulate the rules in such a way that these interactions take place. Therefore, creating good urban governance is considered as the most important factor in creating smart cities. The purpose of the smart city is to improve the quality of life of citizens and improve productivity and quality of services provided. (Luis M. Correia & et.al, 2011: 7). The development of effective e-government is a prerequisite for the development of smart cities and a way to establish good urban governance (Taewoo Nam & Theresa A. Pardo, 2011: 22). There is a lack of proper planning to create a smart city and efforts to increase smart quality services in Tabriz Municipality. There is no adequate infrastructure and planning in investing in the development of ICT. The budget is not commensurate with the capital needed to develop information and communication technology. The municipal subdivisions are carrying out sporadic projects with a short-term vision and hope that by continuing this method and entrusting the projects to private sector contractors, the city will be made smarter.

In this study, 376 questionnaires have been completed to examine the effective variables of Tabriz Municipality. Municipal experts have been selected by random cluster sampling.The questionnaire consists of two parts; the first part of the smart city items consists of 3 concepts and 28 questions. The second part of the items of good urban governance consists of 8 concepts and 40 items. In selecting the thematic concepts of smart city and good urban governance, the theories of experts, the goals of previous research and unique analyzes of third world cities have been considered. After extracting the components and identifying the items, the collected data were entered in SPSS software. Then the data analyzed in the LISREL software. The independent variable is smart city and the dependent variable is good urban governance.

In structural modeling in LISREL software, According to the Kaiser Criterion, Eigenvalues is a good criteria for determining a factor.  If Eigenvalues is closer to one, we should consider that a factor and if Eigenvalues is less than 0.3, then we should not consider that a factor.  According to the variance extraction rule, it should be between 0.3 to 0.6.  If variance is more than 0.6, then we should consider that a factor.According to the results, among the internal latent variables (dependent variable), the component of accountability with direct effect is 0.78, transparency with direct effect is 0.76, effectiveness is 0.69, participation with direct effect is 0.63, responsibility with direct effect is 0.60, justice With a direct effect of 0.56, consensus with a direct effect of 0.52, regularity with a direct effect of 0.50, respectively, have the most effects on the hidden external variable (independent variable) of the smart city. The response variable of the components of urban governance with a direct effect of 0.78  has been selected as the most effective variable in the smart city.The results of the respondents' analysis show that city officials have little accountability to citizens and projects are not based on responsiveness. The concepts of transparency and effectiveness are important after the concept of accountability and according to experts in the urban management of Tabriz have not received much attention.The results of the analysis show that good governance in urban management guarantees effectiveness, citizen participation, justice, consensus and ultimately the legitimacy of the urban complex. The mentioned factors have an effect on the good governance of Tabriz city, which according to the respondents does not have a suitable structure for their implementation in Tabriz Municipality. In the results, there is a correlation between the external latent variable (smart city) and its observed variables, the internal latent variables and its observed variables, as well as the correlation between the external independent variable (independent variable) and the internal independent variable components (dependent variable). Findings indicate significant numbers related to internal and external latent components and variables. There is also a significant correlation between the observed variables and the hidden variables. The significance of the numbers (t-value) is greater than 1.96.

The success of a smart city does not depend on capital and technology, but depend on community leadership and intra-group cooperation with good urban governance. The results of this study show that the condition for creating a smart city is good urban governance. ICT development is not possible unless urban management is committed to accountability, responsibility, efficiency, transparency, consensus, legitimacy, justice and participation.
It will be difficult to develop ICT and innovation in the city if the municipality continues to live without paying attention to the needs of the citizens through the sale of building density and the rent economy. This is more implied in the field of technology. Technology usually requires a lot of investment in infrastructure, which unfortunately is not tangible. Considering the direct impact of the components studied in this research, in order to escape the duality in understanding and implementation of the smart city, governance should become good governance. Therefore, introducing laws, transparency and accountability to citizens with a fair approach and obtaining collective opinion of people in participatory projects, will be effective in urban management. The lack of a systematic structure in urban management reduces the number of expert and specialized work in smartening the city and most projects fail. The precondition for accountability in urban management is the specialization of officials and the creation of specialized working groups. Working groups whose approvals are effective and reach the implementation stage.Cities in developing countries such as Tabriz can not create transparent, accountable, coherent and effective management by empty imitating modern technologies or technology imports. In Tabriz urban management, modernization (modernization) is pursued with a misunderstanding.  Modernization (modernism) and restructuring of management is not accompanied by it. This dual approach makes the components of smart city and good urban governance that were studied in this study, not successful in implementation.

As the center of the province of Fars, the City of Shiraz experienced an endogenic and organic growth until the 1960s and prior to the onset of modernity in Iran, which saw a good balance between the urban population growth rate and its area growth. Following a rise in the urban population in recent decades, the physical form of the cites also changed.

To investigate the changes and dynamism of the land cover, land use maps were developed to determine the changes over different time intervals. The maps were derived from Landsat satellite images with OLI, TM and Mss sensors in 1984 and 1994 as well as in 2014 and 2020 by using Remote Sensing techniques on the Earth Explorer Site. TerrSet software was also used to analyze the images. To analyze satellite images, it is required to use TerrSet software.

Consistent with regression model analysis, land use changes into urban territories have, over the past 40 years, involved 60% of the total area of the city of Shiraz, indicating sharp change trends in this time interval. The orientation of the changes has mainly been north to south of the city which is due to the proportionate developmental space and presence of open plains.

Data analysis suggests that land use changes as well as their analysis in the Markov’s model are experiencing a disproportionate expansion under the effect of unsystematic and irregular urban growth. This study determines that districts 9, 10 and 6 saw an irregular (spiral) urban growth in 2018.

The Maku Free Zone has a potential strategic position in the country according to its location on the Iran turkey border crossing and Azerbaijan, and its sustainable development has great importance from various economic, social, and political aspects. However, regional development policies are still focused on growth regardless of resource shortage, especially water resources. It needs further study toward the sustainable development paradigm and focus on limited resources, especially water resources in this region. In a region, sustainable development can be achieved by considering the economic, social, and environmental potential of that region. Individual development is not possible in any of the sectors without taking into account the overall behavior and effects of the subsystems on each other. 

The present study is applied research, descriptive and analytical research in terms of purpose, nature, and data collection method. The system dynamics method has been used in the software and wireless environment according to the Library studies and field studies concerning the research topic. The study of the aim was to analyze the development of Maku Free region concerning three economic, social, and environmental subsystems with an emphasis on water resources. In this regard, it uses a systemic approach to analyze the interactions between variables. First, the necessary information and statistical data have been derived from observations and regional specialist interviews. Then, the system of three economic and social sectors and water resources was accepted in the form of cause-and-effect chains (equilibrium and reinforcement) separately using software and their performance with reference diagrams through dynamic knowledge. These subsystems were comprehensively drawn and interconnected in the form of a systemic mechanism governing the development indicators of Maku County. Finally, three policies were formulated from the system mechanism according to the existing potentials in the region and based on limited groundwater resources. With a systematic study, the subsystems related to the three mentioned sections. 

One of the most important limitations of Maku region in terms of sustainable development is the high stress on groundwater resources due to overexploitation of available water resources. Therefore, the present article emphasizes equilibrium rings to control the negative effects of reinforcement rings leading to increased exploitation of groundwater resources by focusing on excessive use of groundwater resources. For this purpose, equilibrium rings were drawn in such a way as to prevent the overexploitation of groundwater resources and modify effective reinforcement rings by reducing dependency on agricultural activities. Since the agricultural sector is the most important part of water consumption in that region, it will be possible to draw these circles only based on alternative livelihood policy and change livelihood from agriculture to more value-added activities with less dependency on water; Therefore, livelihood change should be done in the framework for developing and replacing High water consumption agricultural activities with non-agricultural activities based on region situation and circumstance. 

The study of systemic mechanisms governing development showed that three policies based on strengthening aquaculture, investment to develop tourism, and cultivation of medicinal plants by strengthening equilibrium systemic mechanisms, can strengthen the sustainability of the Maku Free Zone. The first policy is based on strengthening the Aquaculture activity, which is currently operating with an area of 40,000 hectares and a production of 80 tons per year. The cultivation area of this region can be increased up to 70,000 hectares due to its high potential for aquaculture despite surface water in the north of the Aras River Valley and the existence of dams such as Danalo and Qighaj. In addition, there are many wetlands in the Maku Free Zone that can be used in aquaculture activities in the future by researching them and making a safe investment in this field. The second policy based on strengthening tourism activity will also lead to the control of the destructive reinforcement loop by increasing the added value of the region and reducing stress on groundwater resources. Cultivation of medicinal plants due to low water consumption and income per acreage compared to orchards is the third proposed systemic policy that can improve the systemic mechanism behavior governing Maku water resources towards optimal water management.

 
Landslides are one of the major geological problems around the world that cause compaction of subsurface layers. The cause of this phenomenon can be attributed to human activities such as uncontrolled abstraction of groundwater and natural activities such as earthquakes. Landslides are also one of the main geological hazards in the region, causing serious damage to buildings, roads, infrastructure and bridges. According to the US Geological Survey, subsidence involves the collapse or subsidence of the earth's surface, which can have a small displacement vector. Therefore, identifying and monitoring the subsidence phenomenon is one of the most important and vital issues to maintain stability in the regions. For this purpose, researchers use various methods to study and observe this phenomenon, which are divided into three categories based on the position of the tools used: Subsurface methods, Ground Based methods and Remote Sensing methods. One of the most important of these methods is remote sensing, which collects data from the air or space using satellites, airplanes, or unmanned vehicles and balloons. Radar interference or InSAR, as one of the methods of processing radar images in active remote sensing, is one of the most accurate and economical methods that allows the detection and detection of differences in altitudes created in the shortest time and for large areas. 

The study area is located in western Iran and one of the parts of Kermanshah city located in Kermanshah province is located in the area between latitudes 42 degrees and 9 minutes north and longitude 36 degrees and 2 minutes east. Radar interferometry studies in this study were taken by sentinel 1 satellite imagery of the C band. In this study, data from Sentinel 1 satellite in C-band were used. Using image processing with SARSCAPE 5.2 plugin in ENVI 5.3 software platform and using interferometry method, areas exposed to subsidence and the amount of subsidence in each area were determined. In the present study, the relationship between groundwater level drop and subsidence of Mahidasht plain has been investigated. For this purpose, groundwater depth data of 31 piezometer wells in Mahidasht plain were used. In terms of time, considering the accurate and available statistics, the statistics of 1394 and 1398 were cited. The steps of the research were as follows: after preparing the statistics of piezometric wells, the data reconstruction method was used to eliminate the deficiencies in the study data. The reconstruction method used, which was used only to correct the defects in the data, is the interpolation method, which was performed by Neural Power software (based on artificial neural network). To normalize the data, logarithmic transformations were used in SPSS 16 software and GS+ software was used for geostatistical analysis.

 Examination of subsidence status during the study years shows that from 2015 to 2020, the rate of subsidence has increased. In Figure 1, the areas marked in red have the highest subsidence, the areas marked in green and yellow have the least subsidence, and the areas marked in black have no subsidence. According to the subsidence map of the region, the maximum average subsidence rate in the study area reaches 16 cm. According to the extracted subsidence map of the study area, it is observed that the highest amount of subsidence occurred in the eastern part of Mahidasht plain, which decreased to the west of the plain, so that in the western and south western part of the plain, the lowest Subsidence is observed.Relationship between groundwater extraction and land subsidence phenomenon Considering that groundwater abstraction is one of the important causes of subsidence in Mahidasht plain, in order to explain the trend of groundwater level changes, the general trend of annual water level of all wells were examined. According to the groundwater level interpolation map, the groundwater depth in Mahidasht plain varies from a maximum of 21.62 meters in 1994 to a maximum of 24.71 meters in 1998.

Land subsidence is a pervasive phenomenon in the world, which has had a significant quantitative and qualitative manifestation in recent decades, mainly due to the improper exploitation of groundwater resources and the intensification of its decline. In the present study, the relationship between groundwater level drop and subsidence of Mahidasht plain has been investigated. Examination of statistics related to the depth of study wells as well as groundwater level zoning maps confirm the decrease of groundwater level. In fact, over-harvesting and lack of balance between feeding the aquifers and draining them has caused the water table in the region to follow a continuous downward trend, with the emptying of water in the cavities of the aquifer and the displacement of water in these cavities with Air reduces the equilibrium pressure between the layers. Due to the disturbance of the balance between the pressure and the weight of the upper layers, due to the force of the weight of the upper layers, the aqueous layers are compressed and the water table decreases and because this decrease has a direct relationship with subsidence. Therefore, in order to deal with this environmental problem, it is recommended to prevent the development of subsidence in the region or to minimize the occurrence of this phenomenon as much as possible by managing land use in the area of subsidence and also adequate supervision over the extraction of underground resources.

Drought is one of the environmental disasters that are very common in arid and semi-arid country regions. Rainfall defects have different effects on groundwater, soil moisture, and river flow. Meteorological drought indices are calculated directly from meteorological data such as rainfall and will not be useful in monitoring drought in the absence of data. Therefore, remote sensing techniques can be a useful tool in measuring drought. Drought is a known environmental disaster and has social, economic, and environmental impacts. Lack of rainfall in an area for long periods is known as drought. Drought and rainfall affect the water and agricultural resources of each region.

Due to the nature of the problem and the subject under study, the present study is descriptive-analytical with emphasis on quantitative methods. In this study, satellite images of Tera Sensor Modis in 2000 and 2017 were used to verify the existence of wet and drought phenomena. In the next step, by examining the rain gauge and synoptic data of the existing stations and using the standardized precipitation index model of three months (May, June, and April), the sample was selected. Next, we compared temperature status indices (TCI) and vegetation health indices (VHI) in these three months to determine the difference between these indices over the three months. Modira Terra satellite was used to study the vegetation status in the study area. Subsequently, vegetation-free areas were isolated from vegetation areas using the conditions set for the NDVI layer, the experimental method was used to determine the threshold value of this index. For this purpose, different thresholds were tested, with the optimum value of 1 being positive. NDVI is less than 1 free of positive plants and more than free of vegetation. MODIS spectral sensor images for surface temperature variables with a spatial resolution of 1 km, including 31 bands (1080/1180 bandwidth, central bandwidth / 11.017 spatial resolution of 1000 m) and 32 bands - 770/11Central Wavelength Band 032/12 Spatial Resolution Power (1000 m) Selected for months that are almost cloudless. All images are downloaded from the SearchEarthData site and edited.  Total rainfall in June, April, and May for 20 years has been provided by the Meteorological Organization of Iran. ARC GIS software and geostatistical methods were used to process Excel data. Pearson correlation coefficient was also used to estimate the correlation between the data. 

A standard precipitation index is a powerful tool in analyzing rainfall data. This study aimed to compare the relationship between remote sensing indices and meteorological drought indices and to determine the effectiveness of remote sensing indices in drought monitoring. The correlation between the variables with the SPI index was evaluated and calculated. The results of the indicators are different, so a criterion should be used to evaluate the performance of these indicators. SPI index on a quarterly time scale (correlation with vegetation) was selected as the preferred criterion. According to the results of correlations, the TCI index with the SPI index had a strong correlation with other indices. In the short run, this index has the highest correlation with thermal indices at the level of 1%. The correlation between meteorological drought index and plant water content and thermal indices increases with increasing time intervals. The positive correlation between vegetation indices and plant water content with meteorological drought indices shows that the trend of changes is in line. Therefore, the TCI index makes the drought more accurate and is a better method to estimate drought.

The results showed that among the surveyed fish, the most drought trend was observed in the eastern provinces and covers more than 50% of the region. The trend of changes in this slope was statistically significant. According to the results of correlations, the TCI index had a strong correlation with the SPI index with other indices. It can also be concluded that Modis images and processed indices along with climatic indices have the potential to monitor drought. The use of maps derived from drought indices can help improve drought management programs and play a significant role in reducing the effects of drought.

We amid to identify and introduce nature-based tourism and its potentiality in West Azerbaijan province. The study area is famous for its environmental and natural landscapes which accordingly implies significant potentials for developing sustainable ecotourism which accordingly leads to improve the economic situation of this province as well. Within this research we applied GIS spatial decision support systems (SDSS) for data analysis and modelling the sustainable ecotourism in west Azerbaijan province. For this goal, 28 relevant criteria from different resources (e.g. physical properties, infrastructure, and facilities) were identified and processed using GIS-SDSS. GIS data aggregation method was applied to develop a final susceptibility map. Results indicated that about 57% of the study area represent a sustainability degree of moderate to significant for ecotourism development. The rest of 43 % basically locates in urban area, deserts resulted by Urmia lake drought which are not indicating a significance potential for ecotourism development. It has also to be highlighted in context of the 57 % there are also different level of sustainability in each area but results shows that ecotourism can be considered as one the main economic development in the study area. We conclude that, the obtained results are very important and critical for identifying nature-based tourism potential assessment. The results of this study provided valuable information for improving the situation as well organizing the sustainable ecotourism in the study area. Results are also great of important for decision makers and planners in light of developing a sustainable natural tourism.

One of the important factors for success in organizing and managing natural resources, including agricultural lands, is identifying stakeholders and studying their behavior. An analysis of the potential, roles, demands, information, and knowledge of project stakeholders to interact and coordinate with them will greatly help to estimate their expectations. Without accurate and complete identification of all stakeholders in the management and organization of agricultural land, the logical and acceptable results of decisions cannot be assured. As such, stakeholder involvement and participation is considered the cornerstone of planning and organizing any work, so that it is one of the tools for achieving sustainability and democracy. Stakeholder involvement and participation is considered the cornerstone of planning and organizing any work, so that it is one of the tools for achieving sustainability and democracy. Stakeholder participation leads to the use of common potential, knowledge, and values, which reduce differences in opinions and increase trust between people and officials. This study was conducted to design a framework and identify priorities for organizing land use in the southern basin of Lake Urmia using "stakeholder analysis" method. 

This study, with a sociological approach, attempted to analyzing the behavior of users in the field of land use planning in the south basin of Urmia Lake.  Hence, this research was closed in 2 steps. First, to understand the farmers' behavior, a survey research will conduct. The research statistical population were the all farmers in the south basin of Urmia lake who were 153 farmers were selected as the sample by a randomized cluster sampling method in the second stage. The sample size is predicted using Cochran formula. The instrument for collecting data was a questionnaire which its validity was confirmed by a panel of experts. The reliability of the questionnaire was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (α=0.74). The data were analyzed using SPSS software. Finally, the "stakeholder analysis" method was used to summarize the results. To perform this section, 28 specialists were selected purposefully according to the subject and objectives of the research. 

Results showed that behaviors of "change in the method of planting crops", "change of land use" and "use of native cultivars", in the group of farmers with change of land use, and behaviors of "seasonal migration of the head of the household to another place of work", "increase of use" "Chemical fertilizers and pesticides" and "permanent migration to the city" in the group of farmers without land use change are in the first to third priorities. Also, according to the results, agricultural land management is one of the topics that have received special attention and many stakeholders. More importantly, in most sectors, farmers have been identified as the main and key stakeholders. Therefore, these stakeholders can be included in the group of influencers. It can be concluded that stakeholders are divided into two groups. The first group comprises only those who are directly affected and benefit from agricultural land-use management. Other groups of actors are individuals or groups who, in addition to benefiting from their interests, are influential. Also, Land use change decisions of farmers in the south basin of the Urmia Lake essentially aimed at improving farmers’ economic status through collective actions, such as shifting to animal husbandry a, cultivating products with a shorter growth period changes in planting method and changes in irrigation system. Therefore, improving the livelihoods and food security of farmers is a key in Iran, like other developing countries. In addition to this component, the lack of competent professionals and managers has led to a tougher challenge. 

The results obtained in the stakeholder analysis showed that farmers at the farm level are key stakeholders and the main pillar in the design, presentation, and implementation of conservation programs to organize lands, along with the Jihad Agricultural Organization and other government organizations. Designing a framework and identifying priorities for organizing land use as a development approach to use all available capacities requires attention to the institutional dimensions of development, especially the analysis of key stakeholders and the use of various tools by expanding coordination and interaction. The important result is that local communities, especially local leaders, see themselves as partners in the program, which leads to cooperation in the program as well as strengthening their weaknesses. Also, the results showed that farmers are at the heart of land management, particularly in rural and agricultural areas. However, the results show that their behavior in the face of environmental change is more of a personal decision and to the extent of the capacity to exploit individually rather than as a group or following a regular schedule. This makes the existing challenge more critical than before.

     The purpose of the spatial planning is to achieve the most desirable distribution of population, by the best form of distribution of economic and social activities across land, which has not yet been seriously addressed, or at least showed its manifestations, and in this time spatial planning as a necessity has been paid. The planning plans of East Azerbaijan province are no exception to this rule and at present in the field of preparing the planning plan of the province, there are many issues, the most obvious of which is the lack of practical participation of involved institutions and effective elements in governing the province. Citizens in different stages of preparing the provincial planning plan, not paying attention to the institutional aspects of land management and provincial planning management, the existence of legal ambiguities and significant institutional vacuum in the field of provincial planning management and not knowing the basis of the provincial planning plan and legal authorities Preparation, approval, monitoring, feedback and review, etc. Therefore, recognizing the obstacles and problems of land management plans implemented in particular and the country's development plans in general, is very important in development plans; Because recognizing the problems of the previous plans helps to some extent to avoid those obstacles and problems in writing and implementing the next landscaping plans, and in this way, to achieve the desired future or the balanced development. Therefore, due to the importance of conducting planning studies in East Azerbaijan, in this study, the effective factors in the implementation and causes, factors and obstacles of research plans in East Azerbaijan province have been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze and evaluate these challenges and obstacles to the implementation of development programs in the realization of land management and tries to answer the following questions; 1) What are the reasons for the non-realization of land management plans in East Azerbaijan? And 2) What are the effective factors in the implementation of the land management plan in East Azerbaijan province?

     The present research was applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of nature and descriptive-analytical method, and documentary and field studies were used to collect data and information. The statistical population of this study includes 197 scientific elites (university professors and doctoral students, masters in urban, rural, regional planning and urban planning), experts and specialists in urban management in East Azerbaijan province. To analyze the data using quantitative methods such as; Structural equations were used in PLS software, regression and path-analysis. 

    The results of research on the reasons for non-implementation of land management plan in the province using structural equation testing in PLS software show; The variable "administrative" with a square value (0.452) is higher than the standard value (0.33) and is therefore described as "average" threshold; The variable "space organization" with a square value (0.4) is greater than the standard value (0.33) and is therefore described as "average" threshold; The variable "economic" with the square value (0.346) is higher than the standard value (0.33) and is therefore described as "average" threshold; The variable "development plans" with a square value (0.740) is greater than the standard value (0.67) and is therefore described as "significant" on the threshold. The results of the study of path coefficients (beta) showed that the administrative and managerial, economic, political and security factors and the space organization have "moderate" values ​​and the "development plans" factor has "strong" values ​​to determine power. Model predictions about endogenous latent variables in the context of land management plans in East Azerbaijan province. Therefore, due to the high values ​​of all values ​​for the variable "Development Plans", it is concluded that the variable "Development Plans" has the greatest impact on the non-implementation of land management plan in the province of East Azerbaijan. For example, land use planning with an all-inclusive approach and rational use of resources and talents in different regions of the country tries to deal with the phenomenon of regional imbalance and provide appropriate solutions for achieving balanced and sustainable development at the land level. However, the lack of proper and complete implementation of development programs in East Azerbaijan province has become the most important obstacle to achieving land management goals. Also, the results in the field of effective factors in the implementation of land management plan in East Azerbaijan province showed that the status of indicators of geographical conditions with a value of T about 9.65 and with a significant level of 0.000, implementation planning with a value of 1.77 and with Significance level of 0.007, institutional with a value of T57.57 and managerial and institutional with a value of T60.60 and significant level of 0.000 in a favorable situation compared to other effective areas in the implementation of land management plan in the study area (province) East Azerbaijan). Also, the results of the route analysis test showed that the most general effect in the field of land management plan is related to socio-cultural conditions with a total effect (0.305) and an institutional index with an overall effect of 0.206. Also, the lowest overall effect is related to the management and legal index with a rate of 0.054. The general effects indicate that in East Azarbaijan province, areas such as imbalance in the population scale of the cities of the province, lack of necessary policies on how to distribute the population in the province, intense concentration of population and activities in the central part of the province. ; Provincial view of organizing hierarchies of urban settlements instead of macro-regional view of territorial areas; Existence of specialized and educated manpower without jobs in the province; High unemployment of young people and university graduates, unfavorable organization of the housing system in the province; Lack of attention to social and human capital in the province; Weakness of participatory foundations and civic institutions in the field of social activities and in the institutional field, restriction of people's participation in formulating policies and programs; The traditional nature of the planning system in accepting the planning approach, the lack of successful implementation and the lack of efficient upstream documents, the weak belief of those in charge of the effectiveness of the planning approach in achieving integrated and sustainable development, limited flexibility in planning strategies; Lack of appropriate rules and regulations and systematic and institutional thinking for land management; Lack of clear and responsible legal institutions for land management, etc. are the areas and factors that have a significant impact on the implementation of land management plans in East Azerbaijan province and sometimes prevent the proper and complete implementation of such plans and plans. To be. In this regard, it can be said that the results of this research with the results of research of Bouzarjmehri et al. In (1397), technical and colleagues in (1397), Jafarian et al. (1397), Tavakoli et al. (1396), Taqvaei and Et al. (2010), Akbari et al. (2015), Sarvar and Khaleiji (2014), Saniei (2011), Sharifzadegan (2010), Latifi (2009), Razavi (2010), Salehi and Pour Asghar (2009) Of Tennessee Valley Civil Organization Studies; The findings of studies by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), etc. are in line and most of these studies with obstacles, causes and strategies for advancing land management plans spatially in various fields.

     The results showed that the administrative and administrative, economic, political and security factors and the spatial organization have "moderate" values and the factor of "programs of development" have strong "values" to determine the model predictions about endogenous latent variables in spatial planning schemes in east Azerbaijan province. Therefore, considering the high values of all values, it is said that the "development plans" index has the greatest impact on the non - realization of spatial planning schemes in east Azerbaijan province. Also, according to the path analysis test, the most general effect on the implementation of spatial planning scheme for socio - cultural conditions with total effect size (0/305) and the institutional index is 0/206. Also, the lowest overall effect is related to the management and legal index with 0/054.

The concept of regional development with a holistic and comprehensive view and with an emphasis on a comprehensive and integrated process emphasizes the promotion of human and material capabilities to meet human needs, without reducing the capabilities of future generations. One of the areas in which it is possible to take advantage of regional capacities and capabilities for balanced, integrated and generally sustainable development is the tourism industry. Policymakers and planners try to take advantage of opportunities by providing and valuing tourist attractions at the regional level (Rosentraub & Joo, 2009). One of the strategies in the framework of regional development is complementarity, which is defined in the sense of geographical concentration of businesses related to an industry and having special internal relationships (Cruz & Teixeira, 2010). Strengthening a complementarity regional view of tourism can improve regional competitiveness and the synergistic and efficient use of resources. However, research in the literature generally considers different ways of affecting a phenomenon separately. However, the interdependence between different approaches to success in different contexts is largely ignored (Al-Sheyadi et al, 2019; Claver et al, 2007). Therefore, according to the issues raised, this study tries to identify the dimensions and components of complementarity tourism development and examine its role in regional development.

The present research is a mixed research and in terms of purpose, the present research is an applied research and in terms of nature and method in the qualitative part is exploratory and in the quantitative part is descriptive-survey. The research process is such that first by using meta-combination and interviewing experts, the dimensions and components of complementarity tourism development and regional development achievements were identified and then in a quantitative part using structural equations to validate the model and examine the relationship. Among the concepts with emphasis on Ardabil province is discussed. The tools used to collect data are interviews, archival documents and questionnaires. The statistical population of this research includes internal and external articles related to the subject of research (in the meta-combination section) and academic experts, managers of government organizations and tourism businesses in Ardabil province (in the interview section and quantitative section). The sample size includes 59 internal and external studies, 18 experts are available for targeted interviews and 110 experts are available for quantitative section using sampling method. Finally, for data analysis in the qualitative part, meta-combination with qualitative content analysis technique, content analysis (interview part) and in a small part of structural equations with SMART-PLS software for data analysis have been used.

 The results indicate the existence of two pervasive themes. The first comprehensive theme is complementarity tourism development, which has 6 themes of tourism policy complementarity (including themes of sub-organizer of adaptation, interaction network and structural integration), cooperative complementarity of tourism (with sub-organizers of relations promotion, partnership cooperation and stakeholder conflict management). ), Tourism technical complementarity (with the themes of resource flexibility, process monitoring and product effectiveness), dynamic tourism complementarity (with the themes of knowledge network, innovation, development of complementarity capabilities, education and learning and technological complementarity), complement Cultural orientation of tourism (with the themes of promoting social resources and social capital) and complementarity of tourism sites. The second comprehensive theme is regional development achievements, which has 6 basic themes including balance in regional development, regional competitiveness, diversification of economic activities, regional branding, quality improvement and life satisfaction and regional sustainability. Based on the findings of structural equations, complementarity tourism development with a path coefficient of 0.406 and a t-value of 4.893 has a positive and significant effect on regional development achievements in Ardabil province.

The development of new opportunities in the tourism industry is an integrated process of physical space and human society, the new forms of which are the result of changes in values ​​and attitudes of human life, advanced technology, information growth and political forces. Tourism research on the region as a Important driving force is focused on connecting different parts of the industry and the possibility of creating destination networks. The concept of complementarity development is in line with the regional view of development, which tries to use all the elements and factors that exist at the regional level and can affect the development of the region, and contribute to the integrated and balanced development of the region. Complementarity tourism development seeks to use the region's tourism potential to reduce inequality and promote the economic and non-economic benefits of tourism at the regional level. Complementarity approach in development and tourism is one of the new approaches of regionalism that very limited studies have been done in this field. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the dimensions and components of complementarity tourism development and regional development achievements. Through a combination of previous studies in the field of complementarity and regional development and analysis of experts' views, it was found that the dimensions of tourism complementarity development include policy complementarity, collaborative complementarity, technical complementarity, cultural complementarity, dynamic complementarity and tourism sites complementarity. On the other hand, the results of meta-composition and content analysis showed that the achievements of development in a region by reducing inequality and creating balance, diversifying economic activities, competitiveness of regions, improving the living conditions of the region and ... Is specified. Development can be done effectively in the region and create tangible effects for the region and its inhabitants that bring long-term and sustainable achievements in the region. After identifying the dimensions and components of complementarity tourism development and regional development achievements, in the next stage, the resulting model in Ardabil province was examined. According to the findings, complementarity tourism development in Ardabil province has a positive and significant effect on regional development achievements. In such a way that the development of tourism complementarity can create sustainable effects in the region and the residents of the region can benefit from these effects. Complementarity tourism development causes the region as an integrated complex with cohesive and interconnected components in which tourism components, in addition to their activities, also interact with other tourism sectors and create synergistic effects.