فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
سال هجدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 67، پاییز 1401)

Spaces and regions, with their values and political resources, acquire a geopolitical nature and affect the geopolitical perception of political actors and are the cause of the zormation of geopolitical patterns in relations. The Kurdistan Regional Government is an example of spaces and geographical areas that today, as an active and leading element in regional equations, affect the geopolitical perception of neighboring countries and actors and is reciprocally influenced by them. Economic variables (geo-economic) are the most common principles of geopolitical perception in the relations of countries and political actors in relation to geopolitical regions and spaces. In this research, 21 geopolitical variables related to explaining the geopolitical perception of political actors and neighboring countries are identified using descriptive-analytic method based on valid library propositions with economic approach. Based on a comparative study of the components, it can be said that despite some fundamental differences in geopolitical interests and concerns, the degree of commonality and similarity in interests and concerns is more pronounced. Thus, despite the competition and incompatibility in some areas in the geopolitical space of Kurdistan region between neighboring actors, the grounds for strategic alliance and cooperation are provided and finally the type of behavioral patterns in geopolitical relations is based on interaction and convergence.

An important issue in this article is the problems in prioritizing security over economic development in Russia. Issues such as Russia's economic decline to 12th in the world, widespread poverty in society, a sharp decline in population growth and its security effects and most importantly, the transformation of the Cold War superpower into a "Third World superpower" due to massive exports of raw materials are important features of Russia that challenge this security priority. Based on these issues, the main question of this article is "why and how has the national security strategy of Russia become broader, more provocative and more aggressive?" The idea that can be put forward in response to this question is that "understanding the interactions of the three variables of environment, attitude and behavior can show a changing trend in Russia's national security strategy. The crisis in the country's geopolitical and environment has strengthened conservative, state-oriented and authoritarian attitudes, and has led to the formation of a broad, provocative and offensive security strategy, which has led to the reproduction of more difficult security conditions".

The research method in this article is "qualitative analysis". The author tries to examine Russia's security strategy, the reasons and factors that shape it, especially focusing on the relationship between the geopolitical environment, political discourse and the thought of the Russian statehood. Then, on the basis of "available documents and data" and, most importantly, the latest official document issued by Russia President called "National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation" in July 2021, and of course, as necessary, other state's strategic documents, like the 2015 National Security Strategy, provide a "secondary analysis" of the reasons and factors associated with the development of Russia's national security strategy.

In the text, we discussed Russia's geopolitical implications and national security strategy, and found that the country's security environment is global, regional, and national, with specific geographical and cultural dimensions. And some fixed elements and dynamic geopolitical features of Russia in recent decades by three normative, institutional and strategic elements from the West (Western values, NATO expansion and missile shield deployment), non-governmental actors from the South (extremism and terrorism), and the flow of population from the east (Chinese immigrants), are seriously threatened. Russia's regional geopolitical environment is not limited to the western borders of Norway, Finland, and the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and even Georgia in the Caucasus, or the eastern border with Japan and the Bering Strait with the United States. Rather, with the Arctic as a major security issue over the past decade, Moscow has been placed under a three-pronged fence. Since 2012, as Western security pressures have intensified, reactions in Russia have intensified, leading to the Ukraine crisis and the occupation of Crimea and intervention in the Ukrainian sovereignty since 2014.In a global and national geo-cultural environment, the discourse of liberal democracy and its norms and institutions was first welcomed in the 1990s in the absence of ideology in Russia. But then, with the beginning of Putin era, efforts were made to engage with him, and the strategy of participation and competition of the first decade of the 21st century reflected Russia's limited adaptation and response to liberal democracy. During this period, Kremlin officials still emphasized the concepts of Russian democracy, guided democracy, and sovereign democracy. But gradually, and especially after 2012, indigenous, religious, neo-Eurasian attitudes, especially neo-conservative thought and the re-reading of the works of conservative thinkers such as Ivan Eileen and Alexander Solzhenitsyn began, and their important concepts entered the texts  and training programs and became a dominant trend.Concepts such as powerful state, authoritarianism, Putinism, and constitutional change should be seen as signs of the reproduction of Tsarist and communist Russian government in the 21st century. The government has prioritized security over economic development and Inside Russia, it has addressed the issue of concentration and its requirements for control, personalization of power, and the dismantling of the concepts of democracy, elections, parliament, and public opinion and in the external environment, the use of force as a vital factor in the political and strategic culture of Kremlin history, as in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria, will not be neglected.

Thus the geopolitical and cultural environment of Russia and the concerns arising from their problems have made the mentality and attitude of the Russian elite more susceptible to the reproduction of the concepts and ideas of state and authoritarianism. This issue has become a key factor in the national cultural discourse and it has put the security strategy above the agenda of the Kremlin's governing system, a strategy that, on the one hand, has become a broader and more comprehensive umbrella for economic, cultural, social and diplomatic policies, and has placed them in the light of its necessities and requirements, and on the other hand, compared to previous periods, it seems more provocative, violent and aggressive

Special geographical position of the Islamic Republic of Iran and special position of Chabahar port due to its excellent environmental capabilities and proximity to Central and East Asian countries in the southeast region, special strategic position to this port in the field of shipping and maritime transport and connection with north-south corridor provided an east-west transit route. Despite the vital value of this region in various security, economic, cultural, political, social aspects, not enough attention has been paid to the elements related to the connection and development of rail transport from this port to other parts of the country. In such circumstances, considering the connection of the rail transport network to Chabahar port, the main issue is that the connection of this network to the rail transport transit inside and outside the country and the north-south corridor will have an impact on the geopolitical status of this port? It seems that the connection of the railway transportation network to Chabahar port will enhance their geopolitical status.

The research method is descriptive-analytic, and data gathering procedure is based on library findings.

Activation of Chabahar Port Railway and revitalization of the Silk Road will bring a lot of economic, political, military and cultural capacities, especially tourism, to the country, and if the plan is ignored, it will isolate Chabahar Port and create security threats. It will be social in Sistan and Baluchestan region for many years. Continuation of the current situation is not in line with Chabahar's interests and it is appropriate for the Iranian diplomatic apparatus to use this opportunity to take advantage of the competition of regional powers (China, India and other countries) to attract investment in rail and port communication structures.

Establishing rail transit in Chabahar port will increase in government interaction, attract foreign investment and economic prosperity, significantly increase in urban planning, create security and political stability in the Middle East, and accelerate the revival of the Maritime Silk Road and connect the port to Heartland "Makinder" and it will be a geopolitical advantage.

Geopolitics is an effort to draw attention to the significance of geographical patterns in political history. This article studies the urban space of Toledo with such an approach, during the social movements of the Umayyad period of al-Andalus. After the capture of al-Andalus by the Muslims in 714 AD, Toledo lost its capital position, but it still retained its geopolitical advantages that attracted a large population; advantages including geographical centrality, economic and agricultural priorities, existence of ancient access roads, and location of the Christian Clergy Center in that city. In the eighth and ninth centuries, Toledo had an arena of revolt against the Umayyad rulers, and at that juncture in history, frequent repression did not prevent the movements from rising again. Given the geopolitical importance of the Toledo, the difference between its protest movements and other movements in al-Andalus, and continuation of unrest for almost two centuries, these questions arise that what were the characteristics of Toledo's urban space? and which geopolitical factors did affect this space? and how did they do that? The research hypothesis is that place identity and social stratification as two geopolitical factors affected the urban space of Toledo and paved the way for the continuation of the movements.

Data gathering procedure of the present paper is based on library findings and the research is descriptive- analytic in terms of method and nature.

Toledo was the ancient royal city and pomp and ceremony, the former capital of the Visigoths, the center of the Andalusian Church, the geographical center of the peninsula, the crossroads of trade caravans, located on high and rocky ground, and surrounded by the swift-flowing river, Tago. These geostrategic features made it possible to resist external attack. People's awareness of these characteristics was effective in shaping their sense of place and the territory did not be conceded without fierce resistance. Proper economic capacity provided the basis for the movement and whenever these conditions were not met, the possibility of protest movements was reduced.Some places had become symbols of stability and repression during this period, three examples of which are discussed in this paper. Seeing these symbols evoked emotional arousal of Toledo residents. On the other hand the bloody massacre of the protesters affected the atmosphere of the city: a cloud of fear and suspicion. Toledo's social stratification was also significant. Different groups lived in this city were knitted together by common interests, a blend of various races: The Maladies, who were the largest population, the Mozarabs and the Berbers. The Umayyad Arabs were the ruling minority who had certain economic and social benefits. 

Research findings show that the place identity of Toledo was the source of the reproduction of the spirit of independence. The presence of repressive symbols in the city was reminiscent of days of struggle and epic. The combination and synergy of people's sense of place shaped the identity of place in Toledo in this kind of circumstances: A stable city with rich internal resources, a glorious past and a vague future, whose inhabitants sought to change their destiny. Also influenced by the presence of the Maladies, the Mozarabs, the Arabs and the Berbers, Toledo's social stratification was a context of continuing anti-Umayyads sentiment. Power and wealth were concentrated in a few hands and the Toledo people saw themselves facing inequality in social and economic opportunities which meant that spatial justice had not been achieved, which caused tension and mistrust between the rulers of Cordoba and the Toledo rebels. Thus, the urban space was always inflamed and confrontational, and every time an insurgency was quelled, it would resume shortly after, and it lasted for about two centuries

Greater Sistan and Baluchestan have always had a geopolitical role for the central government of Iran throughout its long history. With the great geopolitical game of the nineteenth century by Britain and Russia in Sistan and Baluchistan, the region underwent extensive changes in all aspects of social, political and economic security, the effects of which are evident today. Emmanuel Wallerstein's theory of the world system is based on competition between different countries in different positions. Intense competition between Britain and Tsarist Russia in the late eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in eastern and southeastern Iran, especially Greater Sistan and Baluchistan, in addition to the region's fragmentation and political geography, had devastating effects on the natural economy and its tradition has been the environment, insecurity and consequently the underdevelopment of this region.

When all the concepts related to a phenomenon have not been identified yet, the relationships between these concepts are not well understood. Using a qualitative research method to better understand these phenomena will be a solution. With this approach, the present study also has a qualitative approach and grounded theory foundation has been used as a research method to analyze the relationship between research variables.

1) During the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries, the capitalist system continued to expand. This long-term presence of Iran in the arena of the capitalist system created the necessary ground for its peripherization in the 19th century. The British government occupied strategic parts of the Indian suburbs, including Sistan and Baluchistan, in order to preserve the vitality of India. 2) In the meantime, insecurity and its negative effects on the development of Greater Sistan and Baluchistan, which is currently divided between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan should not be ignored. The imbalances of security and development in this geopolitical space, underdevelopment and climatic and geographical conditions of Greater Sistan and Baluchistan have been very effective in the structure and geopolitical nature of this geographical area. Very low human development indicators in the mentioned centuries of the region are also among the factors affecting the economy and historical geopolitics of the province.3) Due to their cultural, religious and social differences, the Baluch ethnic group could not accept the interaction with the modern government, and this interaction turned into a conflict that continues to this day.4) The world capitalist system occupied vast territories in Asia including Balochistan to gain new markets for its goods. Greater Sistan and Baluchestan as the gateway to India in line with the great British strategy of protecting India from the mid-19th century became strategically important.

The climatic conditions of Sistan and Baluchistan are one of the most important factors in insecurity of Sistan and Baluchistan. Insecurity as the main cause of underdevelopment has been influential in the geopolitical evolution of this geographical space in the last three centuries. Its security and geopolitical stability in the last three centuries has faced serious problems and challenges. Of course, in addition to the natural texture of Greater Sistan and Baluchistan, numerous other human factors have also contributed to its geopolitical instability. The geo-culture of Greater Sistan and Baluchistan is considered as one of the most important factors affecting its security. The incidence of this insecurity has doubled. On the other, the presence and influence of the two world powers, Britain and Russia, in Greater Sistan and Baluchistan, and the rivalry of the two governments over the past three centuries have played a significant role in generating insecurity in the region. Hydro-political problems of the mentioned geopolitical region in the last three hundred years on the Helmand River, in addition to heavy damage to the economy and natural order of the region, due to claims and attacks on the borders of the region, is one of the factors that has a very negative impact on the region's security

In the early 16th century, Shah Ismail I (1501–1524) established the Safavid Empire (1501–1736 BC) and reunited Iran for the first time after the collapse of the Sassanid Empire of the 7th century. He ruled a vast territory from Euphrates and Transcaucasia to Hindukush and Oxus. More significantly, he reconstructed Iran’s national identity by combining the Twelver Shia Islam with the Iranian plateau. It was his crucial decision to combine Shiism with the Iranian plateau that retooled Iran for the modern era. The emergence of a new, powerful Shia state in the region had a huge ramification for other Shia communities in the West Asia, particularly the Shia Turks in Minor Asia, while urged Sunni powers of the Ottoman Empire in the west and Uzbek Khanate in the east to ally against the Shia Safavid. For the next time, Iran was surrounded, though this time it was much more intensified since the geopolitical competition in Western Asia overlapped by geo-cultural forces of the Shia-Sunni dichotomy. Such a harsh encirclement in thong term put the country again in the defensive position, made Safavid kings be constantly preoccupied with fighting Sunni powers in the western and eastern fronts, and ultimately left the country prone to domestic rebels.The important point is that the Safavid shahs were not able to disentangle Iran from such a destructive military encirclement. Rare opportunities emerged but the Safavid shahs never defended Iran’s national integrity through power projection beyond its territory to deter external threats. One of these opportunities came up when the Shia Turks, led by Shahkulu, launched a widespread insurgency in spring 1510 and threatened the Ottoman power effectively. For the Middle Eastern Shia, Shah Ismail was both their Shah and Morshed-e Kamel (Complete Su Master). Harshly persecuted by the Ottoman Sultans, the Shia Turk welcomed the Safavi Shah’s sequential victories. Shah Ismail was aware of the power of his supporters; however, he was preoccupied with fighting the Sunni Uzbek Khans in Khorasan, north-eastern Iran, at that time.Furthermore, he did not want to have Iran surrounded by two Sunni powers of the Uzbek and the Ottoman. Therefore, he refrained from inciting Ottoman Sultan, Bayezid II (1481–1512), by siding with the Shia rebellion. Nonetheless, Shahkulu and his 3000 followers were killed in a decisive battle on 2 July 1511. The Ottoman brutally suppressed the Shia Turks. Three years later, Sultan Selim I attacked Iran and defeated Shah Ismail in the Battle of Chaldiran (23 August 1514). Tabriz, the capital of Safavid, was temporarily captured and then destroyed by the Ottoman Jeni Seri forces.

The present article utilizes an intimate historical engagement with the issue through adopting an “analytical process-tracing narrative.” The strength of this narrative lies in its potential to generate a “conceptual framework” organically and incrementally along the unifying theme and guides post of our specific interpretation of Geopolitics. Process tracing allows us to capture the dynamics of change and the causal mechanisms behind these changes within the evolution of the subject under study. Put another way, in analytical process-tracing a theoretical narrative presented in the form of a chronicle that purports to throw light on how an event came about is embedded into an analytical causal explanation couched in explicit theoretical terms.

While much ink has been spilled on the battle of Chaldiran, there has been a theoretical void in the analysis of the explanation of geopolitical, Geo-economic, and Geo-cultural factors behind the outbreak of battle. From this perspective, the present paper is an attempt to explain major forces that shaped the battle of Chaldiran. Heavily based on the first-hand documents, the paper illustrates the Ottoman’s intervention in the middle of Iran’s civil war and against Shah Ismail’s military campaign. It also shows the destructive impact of the Iranian’s lack of modern weapons and wrong military tactics taken by Shah Ismail in the battle. Last but not least, the paper sheds light on the consequences of this battle for the trajectory of the power arrangement in West Asia.

“Which factors were behind the outbreak of the battle of Chaldiran?” This is the central question that guides the analytic narrative in the present paper. The paper shows that, along with major factors, Shah Ismail’s lack of ‘ability’ and ‘intention’ in the support for a non-state entity of the Shia Turk movement ultimately led to the defeat of Iran’s Army. Elaborating the impact of geopolitical factors in the outbreak of the war, the paper argues that it was rooted in Iran’s ‘historical strategic loneliness’. Accordingly, the deployment of Iranian forces to conflict abroad has a notable struggle of Iran’s power projection beyond its territory to compensate its strategic loneliness and to deter external threats. However, Shah Ismail was not able to follow this very logic and, therefore, lost the battle. Phrased differently, Shah Ismail’s lack of ability and intention in the support for a non-state entity of the Shia Turk movement ultimately led to the defeat of Iran’s army and the permanent loss of Western regions of Safavid Empire

Kazakhstan is located in the heart of Eurasia and is one of the most important communication points in the world due to its energy resources and transit and logistical advantages, and it is of special importance in the strategic calculations of the great powers. It is also located on the main economic belt of China's New Silk Road. This study examines the benefits and challenges of this project for Kazakhstan and the type of exposure of this country in the framework of the "Nurly Zhol" (Bright Road) program. In this regard, the development and deepening of economic and trade relations with the region, the development of energy lines and transit are some of the opportunities that the project will create for Kazakhstan. On the other hand, the intensification of competition between Russia, India and the United States in the region, increasing nationalist sensitivities due to China's cultural influence, trade imbalances and the risk of foreign debt are among the main challenges of cooperation in the framework of this plan for Kazakhstan.

This research is analytic-explanatory. The method of data collection is based on library findings such as books, articles, magazines, newspapers and websites.

The Republic of Kazakhstan has established short-term and long-term programs to advance its economic and development goals, the latest of which is the "Kazakhstan 2050" program, the main goal of which is to bring Kazakhstan to the top 30 economic countries. China's new project, the Belt and Road Initiative, which is central to China's foreign policy and includes economic, security and cultural dimensions, seeks to influence China in different parts of the world and change the world order in China's favor. The Republic of Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country and is deprived of the benefits of open seas. Hence, it seeks to diversify its areas of communication. By establishing bilateral and multilateral relations, the Kazakh authorities encourage others to participate in Kazakhstan's economic development, one of which is to take advantage of the plan. Kazakhstan plays a central role in the development of the Silk Road economic belt, as it is China's strategic neighbor, one of China's most important access routes to Europe, and has a unique logistical and transit position on this route. It is also important for supply China's energy needs. These comparative advantages, combined with the country's geo-economic position and its active and balanced foreign policy, have paved the way for its special exploitation of the Silk Road project. Kazakhstan began the process of institutionalizing its relations with China after independence, creating a kind of institutionalization and mutual trust in the relations between the two countries by resolving border disputes and forming various mechanisms. Thus, it can be said that the major grounds for Kazakhstan's participation were provided before the announcement of China's new plan. It should be noted that although there are extensive and significant studies and resources on the subject of the New China Silk Road project, the distinguishing feature of this study is the study of the effects and consequences that this project will have on Kazakhstan. This study answers the question of what opportunities and challenges will the cooperation between Kazakhstan and China in the framework of the economic belt project create for Kazakhstan? The main idea of this paper is that the development and deepening of economic and trade relations with the countries of the region, the development of oil and gas lines, transportation and transit, are among the opportunities that it creates for Kazakhstan. On the other hand, intensifying competition between Russia, India, and the United States in the region, increasing nationalist sensitivities due to China's cultural influence, becoming a mere transit country, and the risk of foreign debt are the main challenges of cooperation in this project.

The Belt-Road project gives Kazakhstan the opportunity to once again become an important and fundamental region of world trade. Due to its energy resources, as well as its strategic position in the heart of Eurasia and China's connection to Europe and the Persian Gulf, and based on proper transportation infrastructure, it is one of the most important countries in the belt-road initiative. The Chinese have done their best to convince their partners that the plan will never bring them security or economic concerns. Countries in the region, on the other hand, are concerned that increasing transport capacity between China and other countries in the region could lead to increased unbalanced trade. Most of the countries around the project import more from China than they export. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, is forced to export raw materials to China to balance exports and imports, and is trying to expand its exports as raw material prices fall. One way China has addressed these concerns is by linking the construction of road-belt projects to investing in industries that could potentially export more items to China. By the time the Belt-Road was introduced as a new project, Kazakhstan's macro-development policies were clear, and the country was quick to align these policies with the Silk Road project and find common ground. Within the framework of the macro-strategy called the "Bright Road", the country had defined its geo-economic position as a logistics hub and transit on the one hand and with many comparative advantages in the field of raw materials and mines, and accordingly, priority areas were quickly identified for Chinese investment and cooperation, and the private and public sectors became operational in these areas, in the form of a larger Belt-Road. On the other hand, by pursuing balanced economic relations with neighboring countries, especially China and Russia, as well as pursuing a balanced foreign policy towards the European Union and maintaining close relations with the United States, it tried to maintain its independence by using the balance of external power. In this context, an important part of the projects in which the government and the private sector of Kazakhstan are involved is in the field of transport and logistics. Given that the shortest land routes connecting Asia and Europe pass through Kazakhstan, the country implemented a national Bright Road program to realize the existing transit potential. In other words, with the implementation of the Belt-Road Initiative, part of the state geo-economic goals to become a transit bridge between Europe and Asia have been achieved. On the one hand, it transforms the country from a landlocked country into a transit hub, and on the other hand, it facilitates its access to China and Europe as the world's largest markets. Overall, this is the biggest opportunity Kazakhstan has had since gaining independence

Iran and its sub-region, namely the Persian Gulf, are geopolitically at the east-west crossroads and the intersection of Heartland and Rimland regions, and in the new geo-economics territories are also at the center of the energy strategy ellipse which is among the three areas of energy consumption centers, namely Europe, China and India. But despite having these resources and a superior position, the Iranian government in recent decades has not been able to use this privileged transit position for economic development and regional cooperation. Therefore, the present study aims to show how the geopolitical and geo-economics transit of oil and gas in the Persian Gulf can affect advancing regional policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Explaining the geopolitical and geo-economics position of energy transit in the Persian Gulf can be examined by the Hartland-Mackinder approach and the geo-economics perspective of Edward Luttwak. Edward Luttwack also believes that in the age of geo-economics, the means and causes of the conflicts of the present century (21st century) become economic in nature and economic tools replace military purposes. In this transition, energy is the most important element in the geo-economics competition, so that geostrategic domains are determined based on energy logic.

Examining the potential of Persian Gulf energy transit to consumption areas shows that in the Indian subcontinent, cooperation in the field of energy can create mutual benefits in other areas, including the expansion of the south-north corridor, the development of Chabahar, and transportation between the two sides. In the Central Asian region, the energy transit of landlocked countries through Iran creates a sense of commitment of these countries to Iran and, an atmosphere of cooperation in other areas including the development of the south-north corridor. Iran will also contribute to the country's energy security through the potential of the peace pipeline and the possibility of connecting it to China, as well as the ability to connect two important energy fields in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia and participate in strengthening Central Asian transmission lines of energy to China. Regarding Iran-Europe relations, in case of de-escalation of tensions and establishment of regular relations between the two sides, the ground for expansion of economic and political cooperation, including energy transit and regional security, should be provided.

Research findings show that the connection between the Persian Gulf energy transit corridors and the surrounding important consumer areas will link the fate of energy and economic security of these countries to the fate of Iran. This will create strategic partners in the field of energy transit, upgrade the regional position, increase the coefficient of economic development and consequently increase the level of national security of Iran

Due to the geographical and political position of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region and the importance of strengthening national security, it seems very necessary to identify the factors affecting it. National security is a complex and ambiguous concept that emerged after World War II and is now of great importance in all countries of the world. One of the factors affecting national security is food security, and we discuss how it impacts national security.

Food security factors and national security criteria are identified in the researches. Given the power of the fuzzy method in explaining linguistic concepts, a fuzzy questionnaire on how each of the food security factors affects national security was designed and sent to selected experts. Using the fuzzy TOPSIS technique, which is a simplified and effective method to rank options, food security factors were classified in order of impact on national security. Factors of food health, food quality, food per capita, unit price, response speed, food freshness, food diversity, food storage, and waste are ranked first to ninth, respectively. For select the food security factors, the mean of the largest and smallest similarity index was calculated, and the factors that had a similarity index higher than this mean were selected to enter the system dynamics stage. Thus, five factors that had the most significant impact on national security - food health, food quality, food per capita, unit price, and response speed - were selected and transferred to the next step. Using the system dynamics method, which is an effective method for simulating complex systems, a system dynamics model was used to simulate the impact of selected food security factors on national security.

Regarding the impact of food health on national security, it can be said that if food is not healthy, the health of the community is jeopardized. As a result, due to the unhealthiness of the community and the staggering costs of treatment, it threatens national security. On the other hand, increasing food health increases community health and national security, but the relationship is not exponential. That is, it cannot be said that the more food and community health increases community security, but when food health reaches its peak, its impact is asymptomatic on national security.About the behavior of the second factor, it can be said that the food per capita of the society should be sufficiently available to the people. When people's per capita food is not enough, it has little effect on national security; if food per capita reaches a balanced level, it increases national security. If people's per capita food exceeds its balance, it will no longer have a positive effect on national security, but it will seem to have the same impact as the per capita food shortage. Since the per capita food is too balanced, the excess amount is either consumed by people, in which case it causes obesity and its underlying diseases and endangers the health of society and ultimately national security, or in the form of waste, which in this case reduces the economic power of society and threatens economic security and ultimately national security. If the country is a food importer, the increase in food per capita will increase food imports, and the amount of foreign exchange output to buy food will increase, which can ultimately harm national security.
On the impact of food quality on national security, if food is not of acceptable quality, it can increase public dissatisfaction and harm national security. Increasing the quality of food can increase general satisfaction and improve national security. But this increase appears asymptomatic because firstly, the quality of food can rise to a limited extent, and secondly, enhancing the food quality to a certain extent increases food security, and, ultimately, national security.As to the effect of speed of response in food supply on national security, it seems that accelerating food supply will growth public satisfaction and finally increase national security, and reducing the speed of response will reduce national security. The effect of increasing the speed of response in food supply on national security is asymptomatic because, firstly, increasing the speed is somewhat possible and more than that is impossible, and more than that will not improve public satisfaction. Reducing the speed of food supply, especially in crises such as floods, earthquakes, etc., causes general dissatisfaction in society. Concerning the impact of food unit prices on national security, it can be said that increasing food unit prices augment public displeasure, and rising public discontent is a potential menace to national security. An increase in the unit price of food leads to a decrease in national security. 

The results of the simulation show the positive effect of health and food quality and response speed and the negative impact of unit price on national security. Also, the per capita consumption factor until it reaches equilibrium has a positive effect, and more than the balance threatens national security

Political stability has always been one of the most important goals and results of political systems. In other words, the sustainable development and security of any country will be achieved under political stability. Hence, the emergence of examples such as civil war, revolution, insurgency, coup, terrorist operations, economic imbalance, social imbalance, etc. is a sign of political instability, the course of which is different in different countries. It is highly dependent on the country's geography, historical transition and political economy. A fragile country is the result of political instability. Fragile states are states that have low degrees in the Charter of Fragility (exercise of authority, provision of services, and legitimacy), which itself includes three types of weak, failed and collapsed. Absolute separation of fragile states from each other is difficult and so far no clear definition has been provided for them, and also assessing the fragility of states is a complex and multidimensional matter.The destabilizing factors in Turkey depend, in short, on three historical periods: 1) the period before the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, 2) the period of the Kemalist one-party system, and 3) the period of the rise of the Guardian state in action. Also, from the perspective of political geography in the contemporary history of Turkey, three mistakes have occurred in its political structure, which have been the source of many destabilizing factors, which are: 1) Kemalist citizenship law: "Secular Sunni Muslim Turk"  2) Choosing a situation instead of a position from the time of Ataturk to before the AKP's coming to power, which is contrary to national security  3) Violation of zero tension with neighbors and improper use of the region's geopolitical code in the beginning of the Syrian crisis. The effects of the era and the consequences of these mistakes have caused the Republic of Turkey, despite its significant economic growth and increasing geopolitical weight in the region and the world before the Syrian crisis, conflicts and tensions. In addition, since 2014, Turkey, through its coercive action in the region, has led to insecurity, greater instability, and reduced geopolitical prestige in the region and the world. And for this reason, in the ranking of the fragility index of governments, in 2018, it has gained 82 points, which puts this country in the group of weak governments. Accordingly, the present study seeks to answer the following questions:1) What are the examples of destabilizing factors affecting the fragility of Turkey?2) What are the most influential destabilizing variables on the fragility of the Turkish government?

This research is methodologically descriptive-analytic. The data gathering procedure is based on library and panel of experts' findings. Thus, the most important variables and indicators of destabilization in which Turkey has instances of instability were prepared and classified according to the Schwartz model, STEEPVASL. Then a closed-ended questionnaire with multiple-choice ranking scale designed to rank the variables and had provided to the panel of expert on Turkish issues.

Findings show that examples of Turkish instability in the Schwartz classification are:  social (decrease in growth rate, increase in asylum and displacement, increase in middle class exodus, increase in elite flight, increase in ethnic-religious divide), technical (low share of top indigenous technologies in GDP), economical (economic fragility, rising military spending), environmental (ecosystem vitality, environmental health, spatial inequality and hydro-political tensions with neighbors), political (changes in government apparatus in order to consolidation authoritarianism itself, financial corruption, sanction of economic and  institutions of government, AKP's confrontation with the Gulenist  movement, political, economic and logistical support of foreign actors to opposition groups), vales (increase of  power and influence of the Diyanet organization), army (territory affected by conflict), security (widespread group grievance, unsuccessful military coup 2016, extensive terrorist operations), legal (suppression and trial of dissidents, increase in political prisoners, violation of freedom of expression, increasing refugee and refugee issues).In the next step, based on the opinions of Turkish experts, the effectiveness of the calculated variables in Turkey was ranked. Findings show that increasing ethnic-religious divide, economic fragility, widespread group grievances, spatial inequality, increasing asylum and displacement, political, economic and logistical support of foreign actors from opposition groups, territory affected by conflict, hydro-political tensions with neighbors, financial corruption, and the AKP's confrontation with the Gulenist  movement have the greatest impact on the Turkish government's fragility.