نشریه اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار
پیاپی 21 (پاییز 1400)

Missile defense is one of the most important components in deterrence and security of countries and advances in missile capabilities could significantly change a country's deterrent equations. One of the technologies of the defense industry is the missile farms consisting of missiles with the ability to hide before launch, so that in this achievement, the missiles are ready and hidden from the radars in the heart of the soil and ready at any time. The ability of hidden missiles has a great importance in the deterrence equations between the two warring parties. The Interlligator missile arms race model was developed during the Cold War, focusing on the US-Soviet missile warfare and shows how the two missile powers interact and balance in deterrence. Given the time of development of the model, it does not include new issues such as the ability of missiles to hide. In this paper, it is intended to investigate the effect of the presence of hidden missiles in deterrence equations and the final balance of the number of missiles required by countries for deterrence by developing the equations of the Interlligator missile arms race model. As a result, a country with hidden missile fields needs fewer missiles at the new equilibrium point for deterrence, and therefore needs less defense spending and therefore less defense expenditure.

The imposition of sanctions is not a new phenomenon for the Islamic Republic of Iran. In fact, due to the historical weaknesses of the Iranian national economy, the country’s adversaries have utilized the best course of action to disrupt its economy and business environment. In this study, we have examined the effect of sanctions on the business environment of Iran and have provided solutions to reduce their impacts. After categorizing sanctions, “ten indicators of ease of doing business” and “PEST Analysis” were utilized to survey the business environment. Subsequently, the mechanism by which sanctions impact the business environment were investigated. Thereafter, by drawing on the obtained information, appropriate solutions for reducing the impacts of sanctions on business environment were proposed. The modus operandi of this research was as follows: after designing the questionnaire, it was presented to the experts _ more specifically, two experts in with the relevant knowledge were interviewed. Then, the T-Test and Friedman tests were deployed to analyze the data. Results of the survey show that sanctions have a greater impact that any other factors in affecting exchange rates, economic growth, and relations with international trading partners. Furthermore, the most effective strategies to reduce the impact of sanctions were found to be those that can help lay the ground for the implementation of “General Policies of the Resistance Economy”, strengthening knowledge-based companies, reforming the country's business environment, and reducing the number and categories of permits and licenses issued by the government.

Given Iran's dependence on oil revenues, oil sanctions have always been used as an effective tool for exerting pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Amidst such these circumstances, it is necessary to adapt appropriate means in terms of oil diplomacy to counteract this economic pressure and thus reduce the effects of oil sanctions. In line with this objective, this study attempts to identify and prioritize the requirements for adopting a suitable oil diplomacy for Iran. To achieve this purpose, this paper first presents a review of the current literature on the subject and uses the SWOT matrix to characterize the experience of Iran and selected countries, and subsequently, ranks the possible strategies for Iran by drawing on expert opinions and utilizing the FAHP method. Based on the results of this study, the three optimal strategies are, "Focusing on the export of petrochemical and petroleum products", "Making oil contracts attractive" and "Implementation of monetary agreements and removal of the US dollar from foreign exchange reserves", respectively. These strategies are believed to be the most effective options for reducing the pressures caused by oil sanctions.

Many researchers believe that climate change is affected by human activities and consumption of different types of energy; so the effect of energy consumption on climate change interpret as greenhouse effect; But the effect of climate change on energy consumption in general and on the composition of energy consumption has recently been considered in many studies. The purpose of this paper is future study of energy consumption with respect to climate change in Iran. In this study, in order to achieve the goals,  in this paper, system dynamic modeling and also experts analysis  in the form of Delphi technique were used. The results of system dynamics simulation in Iran showed that the simulation results of the system dynamics model could simulate the values ​​of the variables of this model and on the other hand with the change of oil and gas consumption in the future in Iran will decrease and electricity consumption will increase. Therefore, policymakers must to think about electricity supply in the future through the import or production of electricity to avoid security challenges.

Given the ongoing tensions in the international community in the present era national security concerns have become a top priority for most countries. The contracts that underpin trade relations, such as offset contracts, are one of the means for enhancing national security. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of offset contracts as an insurance mechanism for promoting national security. In this regard, national security in five dimensions of economic, military, political, social and cultural security, were examined. The statistical population of this study consists of all trade, security and economics experts that are related to these fields. This research is applied in terms of its type and purpose and in terms of data collection method can be characterized as a descriptive-survey and a correlation study in type. The sampling methods adopted were the Convenience Judgmental Sampling and Snowball and the sample size was determined by the Theoretical Saturation Method. To achieve this purpose this purpose, a suitable questionnaire was prepared and distributed among the sample members. Subsequently, 25 of the received responses were analyzed using the SPSS and Smart PLS software and Structural Equation Methods. The results of the analysis indicate that the use of offset contracts has a positive and significant effect on national security. Moreover, a positive and significant impact on economic, military, political, social and cultural security was confirmed. Findings showed that the use of offset contracts as an insurance mechanism with a significant coefficient of 33.649 has a positive and significant effect on national security and the magnitude of this effect is 0.645; Furthermore, the positive and significant effect of offset contracts on economic, military, political and social security was confirmed with significant coefficients of 51.267, 22.902, 29.086 and 9.722, respectively. However, its impact on cultural security was rejected with a factor of 1.039. The results of this study indicate that by using offset contracts as an insurance mechanism, the Islamic Republic of Iran can enjoy several benefits in various dimensions of national security, the most important of which is economic security.

The geographical location of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Middle East and the severe sanctions imposed on the country, have caused a significant reduction in government revenues in recent years. This situation has necessitated the design of financial engineering tools to finance projects of defense and security institutions. Based on preliminary studies, the current model of the project investment funds was selected as a suitable tool for the research topic. The purpose of this research is to design a model based on the current model of the “Project Investment Fund” to finance projects in the country's defense sector. For this purpose, the proposed model of the project investment fund in the country's defense sector was designed. To evaluate the proposed model, a questionnaire with fourteen questions was designed and sent to twenty capital market experts. The questionnaires were analyzed by Kolmograf-Smirnov, one-sample t and Kruskal-Wallis tests and using SPSS software. The findings of these analysis and the opinion of experts indicated that the most important challenges facing investing in Iran’s defense sector are: (1) interest rates below the market average and (2) restrictions regarding the disclosure of information about the proposed defense projects. Finally, in order to meet the expectations of experts, amendments were made to some components of the initial structure and the final proposed model was presented.