فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال نوزدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 73، تابستان 1401)

One of the most important questions for economists is to explain the relationship between the real and financial sectors in economicsbecause understanding this link helps them to plan for economic growth. financial sector is one of the most critical factors in developing products and an essential link in creating different economic sectors, so it is necessary to understand the impact of changing this sector on other sectors. In this regard, the purpose of this article is to evaluate the position of financial intermediations in the country and explain its impact and effects on other economic sectors.

This article, using the Partial Extraction Method of Dietzenbacher & Lahr (2013) ,which is a modified version of Extraction Methods in evaluating economic sectors of the Input-Output table, studies the effects and consequences of 10% positive shock in the financial sub-sectors of Iran including bank, sub-sector insurance, and sub-sector financial intermediations. The table used in this research is the input-output table of 2017, which has been calculated through the semi-statistical method of RAS based on the input-output table of 2011. The input-output analytical table is an industry-industry symmetric table or a commodity-commodity one. The industry-industry table demonstrates what each economic sector has given to other sectors (supply of products) and what it has taken or received from them (demand for inputs).

Due to the positive shock in the field of banking services, 5 sectors will face the most added value; dwelling constructions, other constructions, compulsory social security activities and farming of animals. As a result of a positive shock to the financial intermediation services, 5 sectors will face the most added value;manufacturing iron and steel, manufacturing other basic metals and casting metal, the manufacture, repair and installation of computer, electronic and optical products, manufacturing motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers. Due to the positive shock to the insurance services, the sectors that will create the most added value are: other constructions, coal and lignite mining, manufacturing, repair and installation of computer, electronic and optical products, stone, sand and clay mining and transportation.

The results of this study show that in case of a 10% increase in the supply of banking services (with codes 6411 and 6419 ISIC) in Iran economy, the "dwelling constructions" sector will face a 1.12% increase in value-added, which is equal to 2851589 million Rials. Its intermediate output has witnessed a growth of 1982931 million Rials, equivalent to 0.52%. After this sector, the activities of "other constructions," "compulsory social security activities," and "farming of animals" face 1.01, 0.85, and 0.79 percent increase in value-added. In case of a 10% increase in the supply of financial intermediations services (with codes 642, 643, 649, 661, 662, and 663 ISIC), the "manufacture of basic iron and steel" with a 0.6% increase in value-added equal to 751357 million Rials will face an intermediate output of 161748 million Rials, equivalent to 0.06% increase. After this section,there are the activities of "Manufacture of other basic metal and casting metals," "manufacture, repair, and installation of computer, electronic and optical products," and "manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers" with 0.52 and 0.48% and 0.47% increase in value-added. If the supply of insurance services (with codes 651, 652, and 653 ISIC) in the Iran economy increases by 10%, the "other constructions" sector will face a 0.53% increase in value-added, which is equal to 1940166 million Rials as its intermediate output is 1224203 million. Rials have witnessed a rise of 0.26%. After this sector, the activities of "coal and lignite mining," "manufacturing, repair and installation of computer, electronic and optical products," and "stone, sand and clay mining" activities will face 0.46%, 0.39%, and 0.30% increase in value-added. Finally, all types of financial services were aggregated, and a 10% increase in the supply of the financial sector in Iran economy was studied. The results showed that "other constructions" sector faces a 1.69% increase in value-added, equivalent to 614627 million Rials, as its intermediate output will increase by 3878263 million Rials (0.82%). After that, the sectors "Construction, repair, and installation of computer, electronic and optical products," "dwelling constructions," and "farming of animals" face 1.57, 1.50, and 1.40 percent will increase in  added value.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between information risk in the form of two indicators of volatility risk and arbitrage risk with the probability of price bubble of companies' stocks. For this purpose, data related to 109 companies active in the stock exchange during the period 2011-2017 were selected as a sample by systematic removal sampling method. Lack of transparency regarding companies' financial information as well as price manipulation leads to stock price bubble; finally, this false information causes the price bubble to burst and the price of financial assets to fall sharply, leading to a financial crisis in the capital market. If the stock price in the market is not reasonable and suffers from severe fluctuations and the formation of price bubbles, securities will not be valued properly based on their actual performance, and ultimately prices as an indicator cannot show their correct and real performance. In fact, financial information about each company is very important when estimating the value of stock prices. Investors use this public financial information to assess the future prospects of each company.

The research hypotheses were designed in line with the objectives of the research by examining the relationship between information risk (which includes arbitrage risk and stock volatility risk) and stock price bubbles measured by a new method. This method of measuring the price bubble takes into account the probability of the bubble occurring. The price bubble probability variable was calculated on the weekly stock data through SADF test, which is a set of right-sequence tests used to predict the periods of the price bubble occurrence. Then, through two regression models of panel data, the effect of information risk indicators along with the most important variables affecting the price bubble on the research dependent variable was investigated.

The results of estimating the first model of the research indicate the existence of a positive and significant relationship between stock volatility risk and the possibility of price bubbles in the company's stocks. This suggests that increased volatility risk as an indicator of information risk can be an important factor in the formation of a price bubble in corporate stocks; therefore, the first hypothesis of the research is confirmed. Also, in confirming the estimation results of the previous model, arbitrage risk, like volatility risk, has a positive and significant relationship with the probability of price bubbles. This means that by increasing the arbitrage risk per share, one can expect more price bubbles to occur, indicating that the second hypothesis of the research is confirmed.The results also showed that the share of institutional shareholders has a positive and significant effect on the probability of price bubble. These results indicate inactive institutional owners in companies. In fact, if institutional owners directly manage the company's stock in the market, they will not allow a price bubbleto be formed in the stock. In more floating stocks, the price bubble is less likely to occur. The value of book value to market value has a negative and significant relationship with the probability of price bubbles. That company is more registered, and this shows that the company is in a good financial position and growth.Also,the price of such companies shares will grow without occurring any bubble with the reason of intrinsic value. As the size of the company grows, so does the likelihood of a price bubble. It seems that in small companies, despite more asymmetric information, the potential for price manipulation can be good candidates to create a price bubble.

considering that the results of experimental testing of research hypotheses in line with theoretical expectations showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between information risk and the possibility of price bubbles.Therefore, it is necessary for managers, observers and capital market policymakers to stabilize or Limit market fluctuations to reduce the information risk of companies' stocks.

 high inflation rate is an important economic problem in developing countriesincluding Iran, which, despite its long history of analysis, is still under discussion and is one of the main concerns of politicians and economists. According to the available evidence, inflation has adverse effects on society and economists believe that the costs that inflation imposes on society can be much more serious than the costs of slowing the economic growth. Considering the negative effects of inflation, the effective factors of creating and intensifying inflation have been studied in different schools. In this regard, according to the theoretical issues, inflation has three main sources of 1) increasing demand, 2) cost pressure and 3) structural bottlenecks. One of the most important policies to reduce inflation is to increase the product's supply and growth. In this regard, economic complexity can lead to the formation of oversupply and ultimately reduce inflation in the economy through increasing the capacity of production and diversifying the complex products' production. According to the latest ranking of the Economic Complexity Index reported in 2018 by Harvard University for 133 countries, there is a significant difference between developed and developing countries. 

 The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic complexity on inflation in OIC member countries based on the inter-country approach during the period 1995-2018. The required information was obtained from the World Bank and the Atlas of World Economic Complexity. The geographical scope of this study is thirty selected member countries of the Islamic Cooperation Organization, which have been selected due to the statistical limitations of similar data and historical evidence. Specifying research modelAccording to the theoretical foundations and experimental studies, the model specified in this study was specified as follows:  INF_it=C+β_1*INF_(it-1)+β_2*(M2gr_it-GDPgr_it)+β_3*NAT_it+β_4*ECI_it+ε_i In this model i: country, t: time, C: the width of the origin and β: the coefficients of the explanatory variables (slope coefficients). (INF): Inflation Rate. (INF-1): Inflation of the previous period. (M2gr): growth of liquidity. (GDPgr): growth of gross domestic production. (NAT): abundance of the natural resources. (ECI): Index of economic complexity.The GMM model is selected to estimate this research. 

According to the results of this study, the impact of economic factors on inflation in selected countries was estimated. The coefficient of the main variable of the stipulated model, ie the ECI economic complexity index, is negative and statistically significant at the 5% level. Other explanatory variables of the model, which were significant at the 5% level and all had a positive effect on inflation, are expected inflation, difference between the growth of liquidity and the economic growth and abundance of natural resources. 

The results of the analysis of the model findings showed that the hypothesis of reducing inflation through economic complexity is established in selected Islamic countries. It was also found that with increasing expected inflation, the difference between the growth rate of liquidity and economic growth and natural wealth, inflation increases. Thus, the results of model estimation show that the estimated coefficients of all variables are signally compatible with theoretical foundations. Therefore it is suggested:Policymakers and economic decision-makers should consider research on the indicators of complexity and product space, And adopt the necessary policies and measures to pave the way for higher-tech technological products with the aim of diversifying the competitive products of Islamic countries. Of course, it is necessary to first identify the technological capabilities of countries in this direction.

In most countries, taxes are the most important source of government revenue. But in Iran, taxes have long provided a small share of government revenues. Perhaps the most important reason is the existence of oil revenue sources that have put the tax on the sideline. For this reason, the emphasis has been on reforming the tax structure. In this regard, the Law on Value Added Tax was implemented in Iran in the second half of 2008 to reform the tax structure. VAT is a new tax that was created to reduce the shortcomings of the traditional tax system and also to increase government revenue. VAT is a type of sales tax that is levied at various stages of production and distribution of goods and services. The average VAT rate in different countries is between 5% and 18%. In Iran, since the enactment of the VAT law, there has been a lot of controversy and debate among experts regarding the determination of tax rates. This rate was set at 3 percent at the time of implementation of the VAT law and was set to increase by one percent each year, so that in 2018 it reached 9 percent. As the tax rate increases, so does government revenue from tax collection. However, this increase in income is limited, and if tax rates exceed a certain point, tax revenues will decline, because due to high tax rates, people will lose motivation to work. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the tax rate that maximizes tax revenues. It is also necessary to determine the optimal rate of this type of tax so that the government's tax revenue is maximized but it does not hinder economic growth. The present study was conducted for this purpose.

This research was conducted in the period of 2008-2018 using data from 24 provinces whose information was available. The research data related to VAT rate and government tax revenue in the period of 2008-2018 was collected from the provincial yearbooks. The year 2008 is the beginning of the implementation of the VAT law and 2018 is the last year that information and statistics were available. Finally, the optimal VAT rate in Iranian economy was estimated using data panel method. In this method, first, using Lemmer test, panel data in model estimation was selected. Then, using Hausman test, the estimation with random effects was confirmed. All analysis and model estimations were performed using EViews 9 software.

Findings from the statistical description of the data show that VAT rate in Iran in 2008 was set at 3% and remained at the same rate until the end of 2010. From 2010 onward, VAT rate increased so that in 1394 it reached 9%. From 1394 to 1396, it remained constant. Also, the results of model estimation show that VAT in Iran has lufferel effects; i. e, increasing VAT rate directly increases the government's tax revenue and indirectly reduces the government's tax revenue by reducing production incentive. Therefore, VAT rate has an optimal value at which the rate of government tax revenue is maximized.

The optimal VAT rate calculated in this study is 10.33%. Considering that VAT rate has been set at 9% in 1398, increasing this rate to 10.33% in the coming years is recommended. This will increase the government tax revenue. An increase in the tax rate above this amount will reduce the government tax revenue. Therefore, exceeding VAT rate over 10.33% is not suggested.

The significance of human capital in improving economic growth and productivity is among the vital issues that have received considerable attention from economists. In specific, attaining economic growth has been an issue of interest for economists in recent decades, which requires certain mechanisms, including human capital index and globalization. Even though economic growth is driven by human capital, most resource-rich countries lack the necessary human capital since their natural capital out crowds’ human capital. Globalization assists a country in exploiting the benefits of openness, as it mitigates downside risks. Meanwhile, the increased capital flow that emerges from openness may enable producers to take advantage of a diversified portfolio and invest in riskier projects that yield rapid economic growth and expedite lending and borrowing. In addition, the degree of development of countries has been employed as a dummy variable, where zeros and ones indicate developing and developed countries, respectively.

This research aims to examine the mutual relationship between three variables, namely globalization, human capital accumulation, and economic growth, by theoretical analysis and modeling macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, an adaptive comparison between 23 selected developing countries and 33 developed countries over the 1995-2017 period was carried out based on the generalized method of moments using systemic panel data.

The results indicate that, with a 95% confidence interval, an increase in globalization, economic growth, and life expectancy leads to increased human capital. In contrast, an increase in the urbanization rate does not effectively improve the human capital index in the selected countries. Furthermore, increased human capital, economic growth, population growth rate, development of telecommunication infrastructures, and foreign direct investment affect globalization. Finally, human capital, globalization, labor, and investment affect the economic growth in the selected countries.

Based on the estimation results in selected countries, it can be concluded that increasing globalization leads to greater use of factors of production, higher efficiency at international levels, and improvement in economic growth through interaction with global markets and improvement in the technology employed in countries. Therefore, increasing the openness of the economy of a country increases productivity through the establishment of competition with other countries and the transfer of technology, which ultimately yields economic growth. Estimation and analysis of the multiplier coefficients of the dependent variables for the two mentioned groups of countries concluded that the changes in globalization and economic growth demonstrate a higher effect on human capital for the studied developed countries. Moreover, the multiplier coefficient effect of human capital on globalization in developed countries was more than that of developing countries. In other words, the changes in human capital demonstrate more significant effects on globalization in developed countries.On the other hand, for developing countries, the multiplier coefficient effect of economic growth on globalization was more than that of developed countries by twofold. This result indicates that, for developing countries studied in the mentioned period, a change in economic growth leads to a more significant increase and improvement in globalization. These results may be due to more vacant capacities and potentials in developing countries. In developed countries, the economy is often at full capacity and does not allow for a high growth multiplier. Indeed, the changes in globalization and human capital variables affect the economic growth of developed countries more notably compared with developing countries.

Among labor market indicators, economic participation rates are considered to be one of the key indicators of labor market supply. The desire to participate in economic activities is, on the one hand, driven by the economic needs of the household and, on the other hand, it provides the demand for firms to employ human forces. Whenever each of these factors in the economy is slowed or reacts to changes in the labor market, an important indicator such as the labor force participation rate is likely to decline. In reviewing the labor market situation of countries it can be stated that the higher the labor force participation rate, the higher level of social welfare. Alongside men, women can also participate in economic activities. Female labor force participation is important for strengthening economic and social development of a country because it will increase the efficiency level in the economy and Will bring about economic and social justice. In general, high female labor force participation rate shows two things: 1) women’s progress in economic and social situations. 2) Empowering women. These cases increase justice and the use of human potential in society which can help build higher capacity for economic growth and reduce poverty. It is worth noting that women's employment and economic participation require specific policies and measures and paying attention to their role in economic development should be given more than ever attention. In the scientific literature about labor market, several factors have been mentioned that affect the female labor force participation rate,including: 1) Individual characteristics such as age, gender, level of education, working income. 2) Family characteristics such as other family members’income, the level of education, marital status, employment and family size. In addition, one of the important factors that can influence the female labor force participation rate, is corruption. Corruption by encouraging activities in the shadow economy, Reduces private sector productivity and increases the tax burden by changing the saving-consumption swap. This reduces the supply of labor. Also corruption has a direct and negative impact on labor force participation. It also has an indirect and opposite  effect on labor force participation. Considering the low female labor force participation rate and the high rate of corruption in Iran, it can be stated that the Iranian labor market requires policies and strategies in order to control corruption as well as increasing the female labor force participation rate in different sectors of the economy.

In this study, the impact of corruption on the female labor force participation rate in the labor market of Iran and selected member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in the region during the period 2005-2018 was studied using simultaneous equations model. In this study, the sample includes Iran and 12 selected member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (which mainly includes countries in the region). These countries are: Pakistan, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Jordan, Qatar, Morocco and Iraq. Data regarding these countries is extracted from the database of the World Bank and Transparency International.

The results show that, first, there is a two-way causal relationship between the female labor force participation rate and the corruption variable. Second, high levels of corruption and unemployment have a negative effect on the female labor force participation rate in Iran and selected countries, and this effect is statistically significant at a significant level of 5%. The variables of urbanization ratio and economic growth also had a positive effect on female labor force participation but the effect of urbanization ratio is not statistically significant at a significace level of 5%. The impact of female's fertility rate on female labor force participation in iran and selected countries was negative and this effect was statistically significant at the significant level of 5%. Also the impact of education on female labor force participation in iran and selected countries was positive and at the significant level of 5%, it is statistically significant.

In general, the results of the model estimate show that having a negative impact on economic growth and diverting government spending to unproductive ends, corruption has reduced the female labor force participation in iran and in selected countries. The high unemployment rate also limits the ability of individuals to supply labor and participate in economic activities. Also, high female's fertility rate in the studied countries is considered as an obstacle to increase the female labor force participation.