فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 137 (زمستان 1400)

In this research, an attempt has been made to investigate how the perception of households and firms regarding the economic situation, when they are optimistic or pessimistic, has affected their financial behavior during the two decades of 2000 and 2010. and how this change in behavior has affected macroeconomic variables.To this end, the limited simulation has been carried out augmented with a fully decentralized and micro-founded macro-economic agent-based model compatible with the stock- flow approach. In this simulation, an opinion model, which produces endogenous waves of pessimism and optimism has been added. The idea of optimism and pessimism is a feedback of the individual situation, the behavior of precautionary savings in the household and the ratio of long-term debt to the total capital used in the firm.The results show that in the decade of 2010 compared to the decade of 2000, increasing the level of firms’ leverage and decreasing the level of households’ saving put some households and firms under financial constraints, It has turned them into pessimistic agents and herding behavior has caused the spread of this pessimism among agents. So that pessimistic opinions gain credibility and caused firms to change their financial behavior, increase the firm's financial leverage, and reduce the company's financial self-sufficiency. And the share of wages will take a downward trend, which has resulted in small fluctuations in the economy. Also, due to the interactions between the agents, gradually, with the further spread of pessimism, these small fluctuations have slowed down the dynamism of the whole economy and turned it into a deep economic recession.

Increasing economic growth is one of the most important goals of countries. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to know the factors affecting economic growth. The purpose of this study is to use the fuzzy regression model with symmetric and asymmetric coefficients to investigate the factors affecting Iran's economic growth with an emphasis on foreign direct investment and the banking sector in Iran during the period 2016-2016. The results of the fuzzy regression model with symmetric coefficients indicate that the increase in financial development reduces the instability of economic growth due to the bank-oriented nature of the financial sector in Iran's economy. The results of the fuzzy regression model with asymmetric coefficients show that the investigated factors have a constant effect on economic growth. Therefore, before expanding relations with foreign countries, policy makers should improve the necessary infrastructure and develop resources to increase the country's competitiveness and attract possible foreign direct investment spillovers. Considering the importance of the influence of the financial development index on economic growth, it can be said that the expansion of financial systems is a prerequisite for the positive impact of capital inflows on economic growth.

In the present study, the relationship between financial stability, quality of governance and financial inclusion has been investigated in developing countries with upper middle income in the period from 2004 to 2020. The multidimensional indexing method and two-stage GMM have been utilized to achieve this goal. Also, the mediating role of the financial inclusion in the relationship between the governance quality and financial stability has been examined by two methods of estimation and Sobel statistics. The results showed that the financial inclusion and governance quality had a positive and significant effect on the financial stability. The mediating role of the financial inclusion in the relationship between the governance quality and financial stability has been confirmed by Sobel test statistics. Based on these results, it is suggested that the rules and regulations should be reviewed by regulatory institutions in order to increase the financial activities which improve the financial inclusion and maintain the improved financial stability in the long run to reduce the negative effects of multiple regulations on financial inclusion..

The performance of urban transportation modes is a critical issue for people's mobility. This research analyses various transportation modes in Isfahan city, focusing on social cost minimization and comfort maximization. This study aims to determine the optimal combination of urban transportation modes by considering the appropriate comfort level in Isfahan. The study's results indicate that different allocation models are suitable for different cost-comfort combinations cases. All of these combinations, called Pareto points, are optimal and one of these points can be selected according to the policy-maker opinion. The input data are based on data of origin-destination obtained from the Deputy of Transportation and Traffic of Isfahan Municipality between 189 traffic areas. This data is reduced to 44 integrated areas for the sake of simplicity. The model used in this research is a bi-objective linear programming model. In this research, GAMS software is used for modeling, ArcGIS software is used for data mining, and finally, Excel and SPSS have been applied to analyze the results.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effects of macroprudential policies on the banks’ risk-taking in the Iranian banking system. To this aim, based upon a dynamic panel data model and a system generalized method of moment (GMM-SYS), an applied model is presented to analyze the impact of macroprudential policies on the risk-taking of banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange for the years 1390-1398. In thsis context, the evaluation and analysis of the potential effects of macroprudential instruments have been studied and evaluated. These instruments consist of countercyclical capital buffers, legal reserve requirements, and loan-to-value ratio restrictions on the banks’ risk appetite behaviors. The results of the study shows that the banks’ risk-taking is reduced by strengthening this macroprudential supervision, The role of credit cycles has been considered more extensively in modeling and estimation of the mechanism of transmission of macroprudential policies. This emphasis has been due to the importance of credit cycles and credit crunch highlighted by the Basel Committee. However, according to the results, no significant relationship was found between credit cycles and risk-taking of the sampled banks. In general, the results display that macroprudential policy has an important role in maintaining the financial stability of the country's banking system and helps reduce the vulnerability of the financial system. Therefore, it is necessary for the regulatory authority of the banking system to pay more attention to the development and employment of precautionary tools.

In recent years, the ever-increasing price of food has caused serious concern in terms of providing food expenses and maintaining the governorate's level of food security. Therefore, this study examines the effects of the increase in the price of food products on the cost of living index of urban and rural deciles. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the supply and use tables of 2016 were used in the form of extended Input-output based on the integrated supply and use tables. 24 items including protein products, vitamins, carbohydrates, caffeine and tobacco products were studied. The results of this study showed that the largest share of the living expenses of urban and rural households is associated with bread. The lowest expenses are related to different types of drinks. Except for all types of red and white meat, packaged fruits and vegetables, and dairy products, the cost of living of rural households increases more than urban households due to the increase in the prices of other food products. Among the income deciles, mostly the first to fourth deciles experience the highest cost of living due to the increase in the price of food products. Therefore, since rural households bear the cost of providing food more than urban households, and income deciles are affected unequally. Also, the price increase of different products (24 items) will have different effects on households. Therefore, it is suggested to control the increase in the price of the most effective products in different ways and if the support policy is considered by the policy makers, it should be adopted and applied according to the different urban and rural deciles and according to the results obtained.