نشریه اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار
پیاپی 23 (بهار 1401)

The question of the direction and extent of the relationship between military spending and economic growth has perhaps been one of the most contentious macroeconomic issues discussed by economists during the past decades. Thus far, numerous studies have been conducted in different countries around the world on this subject that have produced varied and often contradicting answers to this question. This article, by employing a Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium modeling approach, isolates the effects of military expenditure on various economic sectors, including households, enterprises, and the government, to examine how military expenditure affects macroeconomic variables in Iran. In so doing, the methodology of this paper utilizes the Bayesian estimation method to determine the structural parameters of the model. For this purpose, seasonal time series data on GDP, Consumption and Military spending for the 1988 to 2020 period were obtained from the Central Bank of Iran and SIPRI. The results obtained from the simulation output of the variables in the model indicate the positive effect of military spending on production and consumption growth. Considering the status of national security as a public good, in conjunction with the effect of military spending on output in economic models, households, and enterprises as the two key sectors in general equilibrium model benefit greatly from the enhancement of national security and its associated industries. It should be noted that even though the effect military spending on output has been positive, based on the output of analysis of the variance of the model, productivity and technological shocks are the most significant factors in creating sustainable changes in production and other real macroeconomic variables.

Considering the critical role of pension funds in safeguarding social security, as well as their standing as one of the most important social and economic institutions within economies, the investment performance of these institutions is vital for overcoming the financial crisis plaguing some of these funds currently, and thus, enhancing social welfare. This paper investigates the factors influencing the investment decisions of the Iranian Armed Forces Pension Fund. For this purpose, this paper first gathered the opinions of academic and executive experts, including board members of the subsidiary companies of the Iranian pension funds and academics working on pension funds’ investments through conducting a questionnaire. Thereafter, Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to test the validity of the instruments, and Cronbach's alpha was calculated to assess the reliability of the questionnaire and its dimensions. The results obtained point towards the critical role of five key factors including managerial, structural, laws and regulations, financial market conditions, as well as social and economic factors influencing the investment decisions of the Armed Forces Pension Funds. Furthermore, the paper finds that structural factors have more impact than other components understudy.

In current economic environment small and medium-sized manufacturing businesses - due to the significant role these businesses play as the driving force behind GDP - have assumed greater importance. Current studies indicate that improving business environment is a crucial factor behind incentivizing the establishment and development of new businesses, as well as, facilitating the optimal performance of such businesses. This paper seeks to identify the effects of improving business environment indicators on starting small and medium-sized businesses in order to provide solutions for eliminating barriers to production. By utilizing survey methods and a questionnaire, the paper seeks to evaluate the extent and manner of the impact of identified factors on the establishment of small and medium businesses. The subjects and the statistical population of this study in qualitative sections includes academics in the fields of management, economics, and business, as well as industry experts, including senior managers of small and medium businesses. For analyzing the data gathered, the paper relies on coding methods for the qualitative component of the study, and structural equation modeling method with a partial least squares approach (with the help of Smart PLS software) for the quantitative component of this study. Based on this analysis, the paper ends with providing some practical solutions to ease the establishment and improving the performance of small and medium enterprises.

The issue of Systemic risk, as a macro-level phenomenon that can affect the stability of financial systems has received much attention in recent years. This evident in the fact that the concept of systemic risk has emerged as a synonym for financial vulnerability or fragility. Such risks typically arise from instability in financial institutions and can be transmitted to the entire financial system. The objective of the current study is to identify the factors that cause systemic risk in banking systems. The statistical population of this study is all banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange between the years 1390 to the end of 1397. In total, 13 banks active during this period were included in the present study. To determine whether there is a relationship between systemic risk in the Iranian banking sector with the currency market, the global gold market, the global oil market and the stock market, the paper starts with identifying and extracting time series data concerning the factors that cause shocks to the stock value of banks and modeling them through a Vector Auto Regressive model. Subsequently, based on the residuals of the VAR model, a multivariate MGARCH model was calculated. Finally, the domino effect of systemic risk among banks was tested using the significance coefficients of the Vector Auto Regressive model. Based on the results obtained in this study, systemic risk varies across the banking sector. Moreover, the paper finds that crises or disruptions in some banks could have a more destructive effect on the entire financial system and even a country's economy, than other banks.

Economic progress has long been considered a main goal by all societies, and each nation based on its own intellectual trajectory has developed its own a specific model of progress. The same holds for the Islamic Republic of Iran, which as a theocracy has felt the need realize its own model of progress in the country. On the other hand, to achieve the economic goals set out in the Sixth Development Plan amidst the disruptive sanctions of the West, the leadership of the country has devised a comprehensive plan for realizing a resistive economy. This article seeks to elucidate this plan through presenting a precise definition of a resistive economy and the model of Iranian Islamic progress. First, the concept of resistance economics and the Iranian Islamic model of progress were studied, and thereafter, by drawing on the views of the experts in this field and based on data centered theorizing methods, the potential role of resistance economics in advancing the Iranian Islamic model of progress was explicated. Findings indicate that implementing the principles and concepts of the Iranian Islamic model of progress will ensure of a path towards progress that inheres all the necessary values and components for the development of the country in all dimensions, including economic development.

The objective of the present study was to present a model for evaluating various subsidy targeting schemes. For this purpose, ten experts in this field were interviewed and the results were analyzed using content analysis approach. Thereafter, based on the model obtained from content analysis, the main components related to each dimension and the constituent indicators of each component were identified and a list of initial factors and indicators were compiled. In the initial model obtained from the content analysis, a total of two dimensions, six components and 51 indicators were identified. In the end, based on resistance economics approach, two main dimensions that affect the evaluation of different models of targeted subsidies were identified as; (a) the process of implementing the targeted plan and (b) the results of the targeted plan. The process of implementing its targeted plan includes three components: planning, awareness, and control mechanisms. The results of targeted projects also include three components: economic and social, governance and environmental components.