فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 43 (پاییز 1401)

Take a look at the trend of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate and inflation in Iran, shows that these variables have had a relatively Instable trend in recent years. However, the effects of the uncertainty of these variables and their interactions have received very little attention in the country. Therefore, this study investigating the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on inflation and interest rate uncertainty and the role monetary and fiscal policy credibility on it using quarterly data during the period 1991-2019. For this purpose, initially using the three-variable VECH and BEKK methods, uncertainty in the variables is estimated. The results show that BEKK method is more suitable for estimating uncertainty than VECH method. Then using the VAR structure, Investigating the Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Inflation and Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Role Monetary and fiscal policy credibility on it. The results show that exchange rate uncertainty and inflation rate uncertainty affect each other. Also, exchange rate uncertainty and interest rate uncertainty intensify each other. Rising interest rates increase interest rate uncertainty and rising inflation increases inflation uncertainty. This result means the confirmation of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis and the rejection of the Pourgerami and Maskus hypothesis. The results also show that the credit of monetary and fiscal policies reduces the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on interest rate uncertainty and inflation.

Increasing people's participation in the capital market is one of the important discussions in the process of economic development. Housing as a capital good and stocks are important channels in the assets market. It is of high interest to investigate the influence of these markets on each other and how housing prices can influence them and interact with them. The current research is different in its contecnt and methodology than previous studies in the followimg ways: 1- Estimation of the asymmetric effects of housing prices on participation in the Tehran Stock Exchange. 2- Using the asymmetric quantile regression method to investigate the participation model in the Iranian stock market. The main aim of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of housing prices on the participation rate in the Iranian stock market. The method used is quantile regression as it allows to present the influence of independent variables in all parts of the distribution, especially in the beginning and end sequences, without violating the classical assumptions and outlier data in the estimation of coefficients. The variables presented in the model are: logarithm of stock market index, logarithm of gold price, logarithm of unofficial exchange rate, logarithm of housing price, logarithm of GDP per capita and interest rate. The time period of this research is 1991 to 2020. The results show that housing prices in different quantiles of participation in the stock market had negative and significant effects on stock market participation. The estimation results show that the absolute value of the currency elasticity of participation in the stock market is smaller than 1, with negative sign and significant. Among other results, the negative and significant effect of gold price and interest rate, mostly  in the upper deciles are worth noting. GDP per capita and stock market efficiency have had a positive and significant effect on participation in the stock market.

The importance of employment from the economic, political and social dimensions, especially in rural areas, has caused policymakers to pay more attention to the provision of facilities and human capital in order to develop entrepreneurship in economic activities, with an emphasis on raising the income of the low- and middle-income classes, in paragraph one of the resistance economy policies. to be placed Based on this, the Barkat Foundation started microcredits necessary for the establishment of employment and its development in rural areas in order to increase welfare since 2017. The research method of the current study is descriptive-analytical, and in order to answer the question, has microcredit had an effect on social welfare in rural areas? has been compiled. In this regard, the five main components of social welfare, including investment environment, economic quality, social capital, health and personal freedom and safety, were identified by experts and specialists based on the Delphi and consolidated methods and categorized into 30 items. Then the validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by elites and experts and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficient. In order to verify the research model, the structural equation model was used. By using the structural equation model and with the help of first and second order confirmatory factor analysis, the validity of the main model and the research questions were tested. The research results indicate that the fit of the model was good and acceptable. Also, based on the t-test, the effectiveness of microcredits on each of the components of social welfare was confirmed.

Government-funded universities play a central role in national research and development (R&D). However, due to the government's budget constraints, the optimal allocation of public resources has become very important. In this study, a decision support framework was developed for the optimal and robust allocation of the R&D budget to maximize the direct and uncertain outputs of R&D activities in universities. The experiments were designed in two phases. In the first phase, without considering the uncertainty of R&D outputs of universities, the optimal budget allocation was determined according to three scenarios for each university. By changing the model parameters (robustness cost control parameter and output uncertainty control parameter), the optimal budget allocation plan in uncertain and robust conditions was calculated for 12 scenarios. The analysis of data using descriptive statistics methods and the comparison of results showed that in the current situation, there was no clear correlation between R&D outputs and the R&D budget allocated to the universities, and the budget allocation process was very volatile and lacked a clear increasing or decreasing pattern. While the R&D budget that was calculated in a robust optimal way showed a logical and proportional trend to the R&D activities’ output. Also, the optimal model distributed the total available budget for the universities in such a way as to achieve the maximum performance in the total budget ceiling. Implementing the model for 5 universities in 6 consecutive years improved the output from a minimum of 2 to a maximum of 6% and saved the allocated budget from 0.1 to 1.1%.

In the present study, by presenting the wavelet method (economic and physical analysis) and coherence analysis, the relationship between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate in the Iranian economy was re-explained based on the theory of purchasing power parity in the form of a monetary dual model in the short-term, medium-term and long-term time horizons. For this purpose, the data in available monthly and used during the period from April 1359 to March 1399. The results of the Granger causality test reject the assumption of causality in all time periods from the real interest rate to the real exchange rate, however, in the short term and in some periods, the causality relationship from the exchange rate Real is towards the real interest rate. Based on the results obtained (based on monthly data), for the real exchange rate index and the real interest rate, many correlation areas have been observed in intervals of less than one year, almost throughout the time period. This shows a strong correlation between the two variables in the short term. Also, the results indicate that the intensity and direction of the relationship between the two variables is not constant in the short term and has changed repeatedly, so that the monetary model cannot be interpreted with sticky prices. By moving from the short term to the long term, the relationship between the real interest rate and the real exchange rate index is in phase, and the real interest rate variable is leading and the real exchange rate is declining; Therefore, in the medium-term and long-term horizon, a direct relationship between these two variables can be seen to an extent that confirms the theory of purchasing power parity (monetary model with flexible prices).

Purpose of the present study is to estimate the fiscal illusion index, using Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model, using longitudinal data during the period of 2001 to 2021, for 31 provinces of Iran country. The results indicate that the most important causal variables of fiscal illusion index are educational costs and tax burden (with a negative effect) and economic participation rate (with a positive effect), and the most important indicators of fiscal illusion were Herfindahl index (with a negative coefficient), budget deficit, inflation rate, indirect tax ratio, real effective exchange rate and Oil revenue (with a positive coefficient) (and all are statistically significant). Also, the results showed that the average value of the estimated fiscal illusion index, among of the provinces, the lowest average value belongs to Khorasan Shomali and the highest value belongs to Khozestan province. Furthermore, the lowest average value of fiscal illusion index in the country level belongs to 2001 & 2002 and the highest is in 2021.

Behavioral economics is a method of economic analysis that uses psychological insights to explain and analyze economic decisions. In the researches done so far, more attention has been paid to the economic aspects of the current crisis and less attention has been paid to the social dimensions and the issue of behavioral economics has been neglected. In the present study, we examine the most important behavioral biases of individuals during the corona pandemic. In order to investigate the social consequences of the corona pandemic and to estimate the relationship between economic and demographic variables with behavioral economics theories, the choice experiment was selected and the mixed logit model was used and by estimating the mixed logit model with interactions a wide range of multiplicative states between personality traits and traits specific to the alternatives were tested. Finally, the variables of age, number of children, income level and awareness of the consequences of corona disease were multiplied by the price with a significant effect and explanatory power. For example, it was observed that older people are less willing to pay more to reduce the consequences of corona disease or having more children has a negative and significant relationship with the selection and additional payment of people to reduce the consequences of this disease. From the perspective of behavioral economics. the result of the estimates confirms a kind of “(effect) of collective behavior and social impact” and “exploratory effect” in people’s behavior, which indicates the preference of economic dimensions over the social dimensions of the disease and the great importance of people to family problems caused by the disease, respectively.

The issue of government intervention in the economy is one of the issues that, despite its high importance for the Iranian economy, little research has been done on it. Among the reasons that justify government intervention in the economy are the production of public goods and services, redistribution of income, stabilization of the economy, natural monopoly and external positive and negative factors. On the other hand, today, capital markets as financial and economic exchanges of companies play an important role in the financial sector and the prosperity of economic activities. An efficient capital market can improve economic growth and attract domestic and foreign capital and play an important role in the process of economic development by stabilizing the financial sector and providing a suitable environment. Some experts believe that the continuous intervention of the government in the process of valuing stock exchange symbols in the capital market has prevented the economic growth and development of the country and is to the detriment of GDP. One of the threats that currently threatens the stock market as a financial market is the involvement of the Ministry of Economy and other government departments in determining the value of stock exchange symbols, and if government officials are not prevented from interfering in the daily stock valuation process, liquidity from the stock market It will move to other parallel markets. On the other hand, we know that stock prices in the capital market are determined entirely on the basis of supply and demand and such things as (environmental or macro factors, industry-related factors and internal factors or within the company. According to the explanations provided, the issue that the present study seeks is what are the effects of government interventions on the capital market during the years 1992-2021?