نشریه آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
سال سوم شماره 3 (پیاپی 10، پاییز 1401)

Weak signals are the most basic information whose identification and analysis is vital for early forecasting of future changes and strategic surprises prevention. Weak signals were first proposed by Ansoff in the theoretical literature of strategic management, but entered into the Futures Studies field and was also noticed by futurists. This question arises, what is the conceptual and methodological position of WS in other fields, especially in the field of Technology? Considering the irreplaceable role of technology in fast and comprehensive changes; In this research, the conceptual dimensions and methodology of WS in the field of technology and FS are studied based on comparative study approach. In terms of methodology, data and results, this research is a qualitative research and in terms of the purpose is a developmental research. The research data was extracted from ScienceDirect database based on Systematic review Protocols including valid scientific articles. The articles were reviewed and studied by use of Thematic analysis approach, and key themes were extracted and compared, based on the extracted themes the "Technology Weak Signals Box" tool is produced and introduced in this paper.Examining the definitions and concepts of weak signals in fields of FS and technology shows that the concept of weak signals in the scientific literature of Technology does not have a specific definition and certain methodological platform. The qualitative results obtained from the reviews of the articles in the field of emerging technologies and WS show that methodological development of WS in the literature of technology requires the adaptation of technology life cycle models and the appropriate time structure of WS concept. Considering the close relationship between the prevention of strategic surprise and the identification and interpretation of WS, especially in the Technology area, the concept of WS should be redefined and restructured in the Technology literature.

Futurism can be considered the science of discovering futures and building a desirable future. One of these methods, especially in the field of issues that have multiple stakeholders with non-convergent tendencies and which is used to analyze the results of negotiations and disputes; It is the Game theory. For this reason, the investigation of new developments in game theory methodology in Iran was chosen as the main topic of the current research. Based on this, it can be pointed out that the main question of the current research is: "What are the new developments in the methodology of game theory in Iran and its developments in the field of futures research?". Game theory is a kind of rational choice theory and also the specialized and mathematical form of the wise actor model in decision theories. The method used in the present study was meta-analysis and library research. After reviewing the database of Magiran with the keyword "game", 1000 articles that used the game method in their research were reviewed in several rounds, and finally 43 articles in the field of futures studies that used the game method in their research were selected and 8 dimensions includes: Exploratory or normative, time horizon, subject, source, data type, combination of method with other methods, interaction-oriented or expert-centered and depth of method used in research were examined. Based on research Result; Game theory has been used mostly in a normative way, without a time horizon, in economic and political issues, using library resources, quantitative and qualitative combination, without combining with other methods, without referring to experts and with appropriate depth in researches. Finally, recommendations for the use of game theory method in futures research were presented.

The present study deals with the development of future scenarios of Iran-Turkey security relations using Scenario Wizard. So that by assessing needs and conducting this type of strategic research, policy makers and decision makers in Iran-Turkey relations can think of alternative options for decision making. The current type of research is applied and its investigation method is exploratory using new future research methods. In this research, based on its nature, the necessary information is collected in two ways: library method and questionnaire. Due to the fact that Micmac software and Scenario Wizard are used for data analysis, the type of questionnaire is closed and in the form of a matrix of mutual effects and surveying the opinions of experts and specialists. Finally, 7 key factors are used as basic factors in the wizard scenario. And according to numerous analyzes and using the panel of experts, the number of 4 possible scenarios as output scenarios of the scenario wizard is as follows; The first scenario: dancing with bears, the second scenario: everyone who is far away from his origin / questioning his past, the third scenario: one to the shoe... one to the nail, the fourth scenario: this is the way you are going to Turkestan. In the end, it is concluded that among the 4 possible scenarios, the first scenario: "Dancing with Bears" is more desirable, because it leads to greater convergence of Turkey with Russia and Turkey's entry into the front of revisionist countries in the international system, which leads to the reduction of relations with the United States and the creation of confrontation. And it will benefit the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is worth mentioning that the strategic and macro policies of Iran towards all its land neighbors are always the policy of interaction, friendship and brotherhood.

Direct democracy provides more opportunities for citizens to manage their public affairs, with a variety of mechanisms. The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran has the tools and, of course, the Neglected capacities in the implementation of direct democracy that it seems possible and achievable to explored and theorized to achieve them by looking again at these tools of direct democracy from one a different and new approach on the one hand, and a different and new reading of some principles of the constitution on the other. this article seeks to present theoretical studies of direct democracy and its most common tools (including: referendum, citizens' initiative, agenda initiative and recall), and study the grounds and capacities of the constitution to apply this type of democracy and offer some solutions to maximize citizen participation in the administration of state affairs, in accordance with Article 6 of the Constitution, which governs state affairs on the basis of public votes. accordingly, it seems that the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran not only enjoys the mechanism of "referendum" but can also, by a secondary analysis, enjoys by other mechanisms of direct democracy without changing the provisions of the Constitution and without That the use of these mechanisms be found to be contrary to the Constitution.

data-based Future studies is one of the guides and pathfinders for managers and decision makers in making decisions. Today, forethought,, prediction and forecasting is one of the key areas of management and is highly necessary and important. In this research, for this purpose, using the discrete Markov gray model, the amount of demand for Arbaeen pilgrimage tourism by Iranian pilgrims in the target area has been predicted. The tourism industry is one of the key industries of today's societies. One of the key branches of this industry on a global scale is a branch called tourism of religious places, which is categorized and researched in religious thought under the specific title of pilgrimage, and in general, it is a form and part of tourism that somehow visits It is related to one of the holy places and usually the shrines and tombs of religious elders. One of the most important places of pilgrimage in the world is the holy city of Karbala, which is the shrine of the third Imam of the Shiites, Imam Hussein (peace be upon him) and his brother, Abbas bin Ali (peace be upon him). Every year, on the 40th day of his martyrdom (Day of Arbaeen), a large number of pilgrims walk the distance from Najaf to Karbala. In recent years and after the fall of the Baath regime dictatorship in Iraq, it has become possible for a large number of people to attend this pilgrimage ceremony. For several years, the Corona epidemic affected the growing trend of Arbaeen pilgrims, but with the resumption of the Arbaeen pilgrimage, it is natural that the governments related to this event should make more detailed plans and designs to hold this ceremony more magnificently.

In this research, the main purpose is to investigate the Futurism from the Viewpoint of the theological school of Maturidiyya Sunnis and compare it with the Shia school. This research, using the method of content analysis and qualitative meta-analysis, in the first step, by examining the content of the sources related to the schools of thought discussed in the subject of the research, collects, categorizes and summarizes the ideas in each school, and based on the intellectual principles of Maturidiyya, the analysis He has examined the mutuality of principles from the perspective of the Shia school of thought. Based on the intellectual principles of Maturidiyya, which have relevance and impact on Futurism, the type and manner of their impact on Futurism has been explained in a classified manner. And it has been compared with the Shi'ism school in a brief way. According to the studies done and the explanation and analysis of the intellectual principles of Maturidiyya and its mutual analysis with the Shia intellectual principles and the identification of the manner and type of influence of these principles on Futurism in these two schools, the results of these studies have been presented in the Futurism of these two schools. In fact, in short; Since Maturidiyya believe in the intellectual and narrative method as well as intuitive and sensory knowledge in their epistemological foundations, therefore they have the intellectual capacities and knowledge base necessary for Futurism. In the Shi'ism school, building the future by understanding its conditions and with the influence of human will along with attention to divine aid and belief in traditions and divine promises is the main essence of looking to the future.