فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 141 (زمستان 1401)

investigating the mechanism of monetary tansmision, considering the microfoundations in money demand, may propose contradictory policy versus macroeconomic theories since households do not hold money equally. Such pattern of behavior can be explained by the new Keynesian literature, which presents micro-based models with the behavior of heterogeneous economic agents. Evaluating the stability of money demand plays a critical role in economies dependent on natural resources due to nature and effects of shocks, role of money substitute assets, and developments in tradable and non-tradable sectors. Here, the demand functions of real M1 and M2 balances were extracted using microfoundations and then estimated by three methods of ARDL, DOLS, and GMM based on quarterly data of the Iranian economy during 1988-Q12022-Q1. For this purpose, the composition of the common monetary aggregate money and quasi-money was revised due to the liquid nature of some quasi-money components in the economy of Iran. The present study aims to examine the variables affecting money and broad money demand in the short and long term, especially alternative assets such as foreign currency, housing, and other durable consumer commodities and expected inflation. The results indicate that the structural stability of the demand for M1 and M2 during 2010s is considered as doubtful and warning. Based on the error correction coefficients in the ECM models, eliminating the effects of a shock and returning to the long-term trend for M2 and M1 demand lasts about 9 and 5 seasons, respectively, meaning that the effects of shocks on broad money demand are relatively long-lasting compared to narrow money j demand. Overall, selecting monetary aggregates as the intermediate target of monetary policy can challenge the economy of Iran.

Experimental evidence and research on accounting show that the banking system does not create money based on the money multiplier theory but rather employs the credit creation theory of banking, ruling out the need for a monetary base. Critics argue that while proponents of this type of banking claim that it promotes economic growth and development, the restrictions and behavior of banks may actually lead to the creation of unproductive liquidity from multiple channels, provided that they are given more freedom to implement independent policies. In addition to lending, the transfer of non-performing loans to performing loans heading with its factitious rollover and identification of fictitious profits for banks have been two of these channels in the Iranian banking system. Accordingly, this paper analyzes the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium of these monetary arrangements, a topic rarely discussed in modeling. The results show that a negative productivity shock can lead to a more significant and rapid reduction in investment, production, consumption, and welfare in this model compared to the money multiplier model. Factitious rollover of non-performing loans also increases the firm's debt to the bank as well as debt default, credit risk, and credit crunch for the firm, and hampers the destruction of liquidity and the creation of credit with the ability to accumulate on time deposits, which, in turn, can have negative consequences through circulation. This further causes the profitability of firms and banks to decline and the inflation rate to increase, leading to increased interest rates, contrary to the money multiplier model; Thus, accurate control over the behavior of banks is essential. It is suggested that macroprudential policies and dynamic provisioning strategies should be implemented along with the accounting system reformation.

This article examines the influence of three demographic factors, namely gender, educational credit, and residency status, on the academic achievement of economics students at the Department of Economics, University of Tehran, Iran. The data analyzed comprise academic performance and demographic information of 220 undergraduate students and 194 graduate students from the 2015 and 2019. We employ pooled ordinary least square estimation to investigate students' performance using three outcome measures, including course grades, semester GPAs, and the ratio of failed to passed units per semester. The results indicate that female undergraduate students outperform their male counterparts in all three outcome measures. Moreover, undergraduate students who reside with their parents in Tehran perform better than those living in dormitories. Concerning educational credit, students in ‘region two’ demonstrate significantly better performance than students in ‘regions one and three’ and ‘Isargaran’. In the master's program, we observe no significant difference between male and female students in terms of grades and GPAs. Furthermore, graduate students who live with their parents have higher GPAs than those living in dormitories, although there is no significant difference in grades. Additionally, Isargaran Credit students perform more poorly than Free Credit students, whereas Talented Credit students exhibit no significant difference from Free Credit students in either of the two measures. 

Pension indexation against inflation is crucial, especially in Iran with high and persistent inflation. Pensions worldwide are mainly adjusted automatically based on a definite indexation rule, but in Iran, it is provided by a considerable discretionary power of government. Hence, the study of economic and political determinants of pension indexation in Iran is critical and interesting.

This study using Iran’s Social Security Organization (ISSO)’s data of pensions paid from 1340 (1960) to 1396 (2018) computes annually the actual pension indexation rate and explains it in a OLS model.

The incomes of ISSO, other expenses like the cost of hospital and medical services, population dependency ratio, the minimum wage, economic (GDP) and political cycles (presidential and parliament elections) have great influences on the discretionary rate of pension indexation in Iran. Old-age pensions in Iran are partly indexed against inflation with a ratio of 0.6, although in the years before presidential elections, pensions are indexed with a ratio of 1.23 above the inflation.

Pensions in Iran become eventually inadequate and retirees’ life are affected by political cycles as a result of indexation without a defined rule. The results show that ISSO’s pensions are provided effectively in a Pay-as-you-go system where dependency ratio and the contribution base are the most influential factors. Pensions were positively related with minimum wage and negatively with the country’s GDP showing that these welfare expenditures are countercyclical and act as an automatic stabilizer.

This study aimed to compare the various economic and social characteristics of Iran’s urban households to determine the most effective characteristics for targeting subsidies in Iran. To this end, this article introduced a new numerical algorithm, where this method is conceived to find the optimal group transfers that allow the largest possible reduction in any additive poverty indexes. The income-expenditure data of rural Iranian households in 2020 was utilized in this study. Three indicators (including: quality of targeting, inclusion, and exclusion errors) were used to evaluate the efficacy of this method. The result indicates that, for the headcount ratio, the targeting efficiency varied between 17.1% and 22.2% based on different household characteristics, the population coverage rate varied between 79.76% and 100%, and the sum of the inclusion and exclusion errors varied between 33.55 and 40.24%. Furthermore, if the targeting is based on the poverty gap index, the targeting efficiency ranges between 57.39 and 71.86%, the population coverage rate ranges between 23.29 and 100%, and the sum of the exclusion and inclusion errors range between 33.55 and 40.23%. Moreover, once the poverty severity index was used as the basis for targeting, the targeting efficiency changed from 59.26% to 74.62%, the population coverage rate changed from 80.54% to 100%, and the sum of the inclusion and exclusion errors changed from 33.33% to 40.23%. Based on the findings, the family size was selected as characteristic for targeting households, where targeting efficiency was 74.62% when targeting was based on family size. Finally, the population coverage rate was 86.37; the exclusion error was 4.60, and the inclusion error was 30.30. 

This research compares the efficiency of the municipality and the government in collecting tax based on real estate. The indicators used to measure the efficiency, salary and wages per capita, and current cost, are considered as the input and tax collection per capita (for the renovation tax of municipality) is considered as the output. The statistical population of the research includes the Tehran and Isfahan municipalities and the Iranian National Tax Administration of 29 provinces in the country in the years 2011 to 2021. In order to measure the efficiency, the window data coverage analysis approach has been used. The data used in the research estimated by EMS software. The comparison of the efficiency average in the years 2011-2021 showed that the efficiency ratio of Tehran Municipality compared to the Iranian National Tax Administration of Tehran Province is 1.2 and the efficiency ratio of Isfahan Municipality compared to the Iranian National Tax Administration of Isfahan Province is 2.78.