پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال هفدهم شماره 33 (بهار 1401)

The industrial sector plays an important role in creating job opportunities. Therefore, evaluating the effects of trade liberalization on the industrial sector is of particular importance. In this regard, this study investigated the effects of reducing importation tariff rates in the industrial sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on welfare and trade balance. These effects were analyzed based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 10 of its database, in two scenarios (25% reduction and 50% reduction of tariff rates) using the GEMPACK software. Trade and specialization cause changes in the structure of production activities and consequently changes in wages and rents of production factors. Thus, the total effect of changing trade policies on the economic welfare index is measured. In addition to the above-noted factors, the volume of initial trade and initial tariff rates can affect the welfare rate. Considering that the tariff rate imposed by Iran is higher than Eurasia, the level of welfare is lower in Iran. Since some activities have various effects in different scenarios, they should be investigated closely to balance welfare. Tariff rate changes are also recommended to be done with high accuracy.

In the present study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the smuggling rate of goods in two cases with and without sanctions in 1352-1398 has been investigated annually. In the present study, the Daubechies wavelet transform approach has been used to extract exchange rate fluctuations, and the principal component analysis approach has been used to extract the factor loading of the sanctions index. Finally, to investigate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations according to the period of fluctuations in two cases with and without the sanctions index on the smuggling rate of goods in the country, the Markov switching model has been used. The results show that increasing trade openness regardless of the level and regime of smuggling in the country significantly reduces smuggling. The increase in tax revenues has also had a positive and significant effect on all levels of smuggling. Increasing the size of government in a situation where the smuggling rate of goods is low, has a positive and significant impact on smuggling of goods. Short-term and long-term exchange rate fluctuations in the conditions without sanctions and with sanctions have had a positive and significant effect at all levels and regimes of smuggling of goods and the positive effect of long-term exchange rate fluctuations has been stronger, especially in terms of sanctions. The official exchange rate gap has also had a positive and significant effect on smuggling of goods in high regime. Therefore, the share of the National Development Fund in oil and gas sales revenues should be increased in order to increase the foreign exchange resources of the Central Bank, and in the event of sanctions, it can prevent exchange rate fluctuations, especially in the long run.

This research examines the role of financial policies in Iran using quantitative approaches and investigates the relative importance of financial policies in strengthening economic growth. In this regard, with the help of the Financial Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), this study addresses the issue of which political regime in Iran is placed in the group of "fiscal dominance" or "monetary dominance" and whether the primary government deficit is adjusted independently of real debts or not. In the next step, the current research investigates to what extent inflation is affected by financial deficits. Such an analysis can be indirect proof of the type of political regime in Iran, as well as an examination of how inflation will react to financial shocks. Financial dominance can have wide dimensions that the policymaker should pay attention to. Based on the results obtained in the econometric model of the research, it can be suggested that the two variables of money volume and budget surplus will have a major contribution to inflation changes. According to the above findings, it can be stated that Iran's economy is placed in the regime group with financial policy dominance because the monetary policymaker considers himself committed to the needs of the financial policymaker. Also, the results of this research show the important role of the budget deficit in determining the exogenousness of money volume in Iran, whose effect will be stable in Iran's economy for the next eight periods.

Iran's economy faced the problem of Coronavirus when macroeconomic variables did not show a suitable situation due to economic sanctions. Therefore, in this study, the optimal monetary policy was determined to reduce the negative effects of the shock caused by the outbreak of Coronavirus on GDP, total welfare, and employment in Iran using a social accounting matrix (SAM) and a new model of recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE). Results showed that the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 5% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of shock caused by the outbreak of Coronavirus on investigated variables compared to not adopting monetary policy. Moreover, adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 10% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of shock caused by the outbreak of the Coronavirus on investigated variables more than adopting a monetary policy equivalent to a 5% reduction in the legal reserve rate. Additionally, adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 20% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of shock caused by the outbreak of Coronavirus on investigated variables more than adopting a monetary policy equivalent to a 10% reduction in the legal reserve rate. Based on this, it is suggested that the monetary authorities adopt an expansionary monetary policy under similar conditions so that commercial banks can provide facilities to households (in order to stimulate total demand and prevent the reduction of gross domestic production) and producers (in order not to lay off or adjust the workforce) to reduce the welfare of the whole society.

With the passage of time and the mechanization of various agricultural sectors, the dependence of this sector on various types of energy, especially electricity, has increased and electricity has become a suitable substitute for other energy carriers in some fields. Among the agricultural sub-sectors, the poultry sub-sector has the highest consumption and dependence on electricity. Therefore, in the current research, using the survey, the willingness to pay, and the market-based methods, the costs of power outages for 42 major subscribers in Mazandaran province poultry breeding in 2020 have been investigated. The obtained results show that the willingness to pay for blackout costs per kilowatt hour of electricity for unannounced blackouts is 9,316 Rials in the lowest case and 210,623 Rials in the highest case. Moreover, due to the high sensitivity of these subscribers to power outages, 83% of producers are equipped with backup devices such as generators, which in the past year averaged 40,587 Rials for each kilowatt hour. Based on the results of this research, it is recommended to increase the reliability of electricity supply for the agricultural sector and compensate for the damages caused by power outages.

If there is a consensus about the existence of a bubble in the Tehran Stock Exchange, there is not much consensus about the time of its formation and evacuation. In addition, there is much disagreement about the reasons for the formation and effects of the collapse of the bubbles and its impact on the nominal and real sectors of the economy and its channels of influence. Therefore, identifying the time of formation, collapse and factors affecting the formation and collapse of bubbles and their impact on different sectors of the economy is questionable and research. For this purpose, in this study, the timing of the formation of stock price bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the impact of the production gap on its formation during the period 2004 to 2020 has been investigated. During the period under review, the stock market in three different periods in 2004, 2011 and 2018 has witnessed a price bubble. Also, the results of the study of how the output gap affects the stock market bubble, which was done using the TVP-SVAR method, indicate that the output gap is effective on the fundamental part of the stock price and its ineffectiveness on the bubble sector. Meanwhile, the effect of stock prices on the output gap from the wealth channel is positive, and as the market grows, this channel will be strengthened.