نشریه زراعت و فناوری زعفران
سال یازدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 40، تابستان 1402)

Monitoring of yield indicators, such as evaluating the trend and yield stability, can open the way for future policies and decisions in order to maintain and improve the yield of important agricultural products in Iran's agricultural systems. The aim of this study was to investigate and establish the stability of saffron yield in selected cities of Khorasan-Razavi province during the years 1400-1401 was conducted at Torbat Heydarieh University. To achieve this objective, data regarding saffron cultivation area and yield from various cities in Khorasan-Razavi Province were gathered from available statistics published by the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, Iran, over 34 years (1365-1399). Following data validation, five cities – namely Torbat Heydarieh, Neishabur, Kashmir, Gonabad, and Taibad – were chosen based on the availability of comprehensive statistics. Additional information was then collated through questionnaires and forms by liaising with the agricultural jihad and research centers in each city. Utilizing regression analysis, this research delved into the long-term trends of yield and cultivated area, exploring relative and absolute yield residuals and investigating coefficients of yield changes. The study unveiled that the cultivated saffron area expanded across all surveyed cities until 2007-2008. However, in the latter years of the study, specifically in cities with high average saffron yield, such as Gonabad and Torbat Heydarieh, a marked decline in cultivated area was observed. Over the past 34 years, a notable decline in saffron yield has been observed in Torbat Heydarieh, Gonabad, and Kashmar. Notably, Gonabad, which had the highest average yield over this period, experienced the most substantial decrease in yield, amounting to 0.09 kg per hectare per year. Unfortunately, the degree of yield stability in the saffron cultivation ecosystems of the studied cities was not favorable. In particular, the relative residual yield across different cities ranged from 0.01% to 159.1%, indicating significant instability in saffron cultivation ecosystems within Khorasan Razavi province. The coefficient of variation of yield trends exhibited a decline in all surveyed cities except. The average rate of change in these cities was computed to be very low at -0.005% per year, implying that the enhancement of yield stability in these regions was occurring at a notably sluggish pace.

Saffron (Crocus sativus L.) has been used as food and medicine for Iranians for a long time, from the ancient to the modern period, and several factors have influenced its production and consumption in different provinces, especially Razavi Khorasan. In order to investigate the trend of cultivated area, stigma production and yield of saffron and also the effect of climatic parameters such as altitude above sea level, average temperature, and precipitation on the cultivation and production of this plant in different cities of Khorasan Razavi Province, a study was conducted by using data of Agricultural Jihad Organization during 1984 to 2020. Results indicated that the highest production and cultivated area in the province of Razavi Khorasan in the studied period were related to Zaveh, Torbat Heydarieh, and Roshtkhar, respectively. Zaveh and Torbat Heydarieh also had the largest portion of irrigated production in the province, with 13.3 and 9.4 %, respectively. Upon comparing the yield of saffron across different cities to the provincial average, it became evident that Gonabad and Torbat Heydarieh secured the first and second positions, respectively, in this comparison. Conversely, Kalat exhibited the lowest percentage in terms of cultivated area, irrigated production, and yield ratio compared to the provincial average. Further analysis revealed that elevation above sea level is positively correlated with both cultivated area and saffron production. Interestingly, there exists a non-linear inverse relationship between annual rainfall and cultivated area, production, and yield of saffron. Moreover, the study found that higher average temperatures are associated with increased saffron production, although the average yield of saffron tends to decrease. Regarding similarities across different cities in Khorasan-Razavi province, an investigation at a 75% similarity threshold indicated the possibility of classifying the province's various regions into five distinct clusters. The cities of Bakharz, Gonabad, Kashmer, Mahvalat, and Roshtkhar were in the first cluster, and the cities of Bajastan, Khaf, Torbat Jam, Neishabur, Bardaskan, and Taibad were in the second cluster, and each of the cities of Torbat Heydarieh and Zaveh also formed two separate branches. The rest of the cities were placed in a cluster. In general, the increasing trend of saffron cultivation and production in Khorasan-Razavi province indicates a greater desire to cultivate this plant by the farmers, considering the climatic and soil conditions of this province.

Ensemble modelling is expanding in several areas of engineering, especially different aspects of water engineering. Accurate estimation of saffron water requirement (SWR), an essential strategic production of the agriculture sector, is a crucial and influencing act in local water planning of this region. Hence, this study aimed to check the applicability of ensemble modelling in enhancing SWR at Birjand, Southern Khorasan, Iran. The actual water requirement of saffron was recorded in the field lysimetric laboratory at the University of Birjand. The simulation of water requirement was conducted utilizing Decision Tree Regression (DTR) with input climate features. Additionally, Boosting and Bagging methods were employed to establish and enhance the ensemble process of soil water requirement (SWR) simulations. To track the effectiveness of any method, some comparative tests were designed, such as statistical criteria (RMSE and MAE) detection, Violin plot analysis, over/underestimation, times series comparison, and error improvement test. Results indicated that although the acceptable performance of DTR in simulating SWR, the probable improvement was potentially felt. Derived results confirmed that supervised ensemble modelling (Boosting) could enhance the accuracy of DTR by more than 30 percent (reducing absolute error from 36 mm to 23.65 mm), resulting in declining RMSE from 0.44 mm to 0.07 mm. Further, different experiment outcomes revealed that the Boosting algorithm quality is more appealing than DTR and Bagging outputs.

Cultivated saffron (Crocus sativus L.) boasts remarkable commercial value due to its possessing three pivotal metabolites: crocin, picrocrocin, and safranal. The significance of obtaining these metabolites, particularly crocin, from sources other than cultivated saffron has grown substantially, primarily driven by native wild saffron species in Iran. In this ongoing study, High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) has been harnessed as a potent analytical tool for the identification of these metabolites in two wild saffron species, Khazar (C. caspius) and Ziba (C. specious), alongside the cultivated variety. Furthermore, bioinformatics tools have been employed to extract nucleotide and protein sequences, thereby facilitating the prediction of protein structures for genes integral to the biosynthesis process of these notable apocarotenoids in an in-silico manner. The research findings have showcased the presence of crocin across all analyzed samples, albeit in varying quantities. Specifically, the crocin content in the cultivated saffron, Ziba, and Khazar species accounted for 26.76%, 2.8%, and 0.74% of dry weight matter, respectively. However, the amount of picrocrocin and safranal metabolites in cultivated species was 8.4 and 0.03 percent, respectively, but there were no detectable amounts of these apocarotenoids in the studied wild species. , The existence of crocin in wild species has made hope for conducting research and searching in wild species for these effective substances and implementing breeding programs or genetic manipulation for the mentioned species.

Saffron or red gold is a strategic agricultural product with a very high non-oil export potential. Considering the ban on the use of synthetic chemical poisons against saffron pests and the growing trend of planting this product in the country, as well as the importance of producing certified seeds of agricultural products, it is inevitable to find non-chemical ways to control the pest and produce certified saffron onions. Meanwhile, the saffron mite Rhizoglyphus robini Claparède is one of the most important pests of saffron, which causes great damage to onions and saffron crops every year. In the present study, the toxicity of four plant essential oils from the Asteraceae family, including Artemisia sieberi Besser, Acroptilon repens (L.), Cichorium intybus L. and Achillea millefolium L., was evaluated on the adult female species of the saffron mite in laboratory conditions. Bioassay was performed by fumigation method inside a 5 cm petri dish in total darkness, with a relative humidity of 70% and a temperature of 26 degrees for 24 hours. For each essential oil, 6 concentrations and 3 repetitions were considered for each concentration. The results of the bioassay by fumigation method showed that the essential oil of A.sieberiwith LC50 = 160.09 ppm has the highest and C. intybus essential oil with LC50 = 440.12 ppm has the lowest toxicity on saffron bulb mite. Also, the highest concentration slope was observed in A. repens essential oil (5.801±0.719) and the lowest was observed in the essential oil of A. sieberi and A. millefolium. Based on the starting point of toxicity, the essential oil of A. sieberiwith the highest intercept (-2.177±0.323) caused the fastest initial toxicity on bulb mite at a concentration of 33.21 ppm.

This study aimed to investigate the impact of climate change on saffron land rents in Khorasan Razavi province. To achieve this goal, relevant data and statistics were gathered from the National Meteorological Organization and the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Khorasan Razavi province between 2011-2020. In doing so, panel data of the Ricardian technique was employed. The net present value of land rent was subsequently calculated. Considering three climate change scenarios, A1, B1, and AB (pessimistic, optimistic, and intermediate) till 2100 of IPCC, the ultimate effect of climate change on saffron land rents in Khorasan Razavi province was predicted. The results indicated that all of the cities in Khorasan Razavi province had positive saffron land rents throughout the study period. Torbat-e-Jam had the highest value of saffron land rent with 535,079,456 Tomans, while Kashmar and Roshtkhar had the lowest value with 160,079,456 Tomans. Moreover, the trend of changes in land rents is positive in some cities and negative in others. Bajestan, Torbat-e-Jam, Jooybar, and Khoshab have an increasing trend in the value of saffron land rent. In addition, the trend of land rent in Bakharz, Taybad, Bardaskan, Torbat Heydariyeh, Joghatai, Chenaran, Khalilabad, and Khaf is decreasing. Based on a fixed effects model, the average annual temperature, cumulative precipitation, and maximum average temperature have a positive and significant effect. In contrast, the interactive effect of temperature, precipitation and minimum average temperature negatively and significantly affect saffron land rents. Considering climate scenarios until 2025, land rent will decrease by 11.0% per hectare. Moreover, changes in land rent caused by temperature and precipitation climate scenarios until 2100 are estimated to be 326.0%. Considering the average land rent and the total saffron cultivation area in Khorasan Razavi province, we will have a decrease of 7.93 billion Tomans in land rent. Given the inevitability of climate change, evaluating its effects can be effective in managing this phenomenon.