فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال بیستم شماره 2 (پیاپی 77، تابستان 1402)

The economics of welfare and happiness is one of the most prominent and important domains in economic literature which, in recent years, has been greatly attended to by many economists. With the advent of the economics of happiness in economic literature, the necessity to investigate how political and economic factors influence happiness has proved to be more and more critical. The present study investigates the effects of natural resource rents and good governance on the happiness index of resource rich countries. The test for interaction effect of good governance and natural resource rents on the happiness level of the selected countries which rely on natural resource revenues, is the pivotal issue in this research which has not been discussed in previous studies.

The interaction effect of natural resource rents and good governance index on happiness in 66 countries having a natural resource rent of over 5 percent of gross domestic production from 2005 to 2018 has been estimated using panel data and the generalized method of moments (GMM). To ensure the appropriateness of using this method for estimating the empirical model, two tests are presented to investigate the validity and accuracy of instrumental variables. The first test is the Sargan test with a null hypothesis representing the uncorrelatedness between the instruments and the error term. The statistical value of the Sargan test in the three applied models in this research is greater than 0.05. As a result, the null hypothesis of no correlation between instruments and error terms cannot be rejected. The second test is the test of first-order autocorrelation AR(1) and second-order autocorrelation AR(2) in error terms in a way that the null hypothesis representing the absence of first-order autocorrelation must be rejected but the absence of second-order serial autocorrelation must not be rejected. The test results of the three models used in this study show that the applied instrumental variables are independent of the error term and enjoy sufficient validity for estimating the models.

According to the results of the estimation of the models, natural resource rents have a negative and statistically significant impact on happinness while good governance have a positive and significant impact on happiness. Additionally, the interaction effect of natural resource rents and good governance on happiness index is negative and significant. The negative impact of the interaction term between natural resource rents and good governance on happiness leads to the weakening of the positive effects of good governance on happiness.

Natural resource rich countries earn a lot by selling their resources. It is expected that having these great levels of revenue, resource rich countries experience economic development and growth and consequently high levels of happiness and welfare, but in practice, they suffer from low degrees of happiness and welfare. This is because the natural resources and the misuse of their revenues lead to a reduction in governance quality. On the other hand, the weakness of institutional indexes creates a negative effect on happiness and growth which makes the windfall of natural resource revenues to become a curse for resource dependent countries. The lack of structural-institutional frameworks in most of the countries studied, the increase of natural resources and the misuse of resource rents by different groups of rent seekers are followed by a great decline in equality, welfare and happiness. Inflation and unemployment have significant negative effects on the happiness index. An increase in inflation and unemployment and their consequent reduction in purchasing power leads to a decrease in happiness levels. The coefficient of the human development index is significant and positive and as a result, the improvement of the quality of the human development index, which leads to a rise in health, education, revenue and life standards, has a positive effect on happiness. Additionally, with regard to the negative effect of natural resource rents on happiness, some measures including natural resource management, implementing instruments like a Sovereign Wealth Fund, using the revenue of natural resources to invest in productive economic sectors and decreasing the share of resource revenue in the current government budget can decline rent-seeking activities and prevent their negative effects on happiness.

Energy is used as an input in the production, distribution and consumption of all goods and services. Therefore, it has a wide importance in the supply chain both from the perspective of the final product for consumers and from the perspective of production input for producers (Adom et al, 2019).This importance has caused the excessive use of energy to achieve higher economic growth and development, and has resulted in the destruction of the environment and the loss of natural resources. Indeed, although energy is necessary for economic growth and development, it can be said that it is necessary to worry about its lack and pay attention to environmental issues. Indeed, the limitation and depletion of energy resources has made the management of energy consumption one of the most important issues in the global economy (Harati et al, 2017). Therefore, studying the factors affecting efficiency in energy consumption and reducing energy intensity is one of the essential prerequisites for efficient management of energy consumption and reduction of environmental pollutants. Among various factors, the impact of financial development on energy intensity is one of the important issues that has been raised and shown its importance in the last few years. Therefore, this can have optimal policies in energy consumption and environmental efficiency.Therefore, the present research investigate the impact of financial development on energy intensity in Iran during the period of 1350-1397 under regime conditions.

To investigate the impact of financial development on energy intensity in Iran under regime conditions, vector auto regression model based on error correction (MS-VECM) has been used. The statistical data of financial development variables were collected from the WDI(2020) and energy consumption intensity from the energy balance sheet, as well as the statistics of economic growth variables, urbanization, industrialization and commercial openness from the WDI (2020).

According to the estimation model, the impact of financial development on energy intensity has been analyzed in three different regimes. According to the results, financial development in zero regimes has a negative and significant effect on energy intensity. In this regime, improving financial development has reduced energy intensity. In regime one, the impact of financial development on energy intensity is positive and significant, and the improvement of financial development environment has increased energy intensity. In regime two, financial development has a negative effect on energy intensity, but its effect coefficient is different compared to regime zero. Therefore, the results showed that energy intensity is affected by different regimes of financial development.

According to the results of the study, it can be said that financial development has an important and significant effect on energy consumption and intensity. When financial development is around its stable state and has little fluctuation, the impact of financial development on energy intensity is negative. It is important to pay attention to this point in Iran, where energy consumption and intensity are not in a good condition compared to other countries. Therefore, the results show that economic policy makers, in addition to paying attention to financial development, should also focus on the volatility and changeability of this variable and try to implement policies that do not cause large fluctuations in the financial markets. A momentary increase or decrease in credits, a sudden change in debts or a sudden change in bank assets can cause financial development to be in a single regime and have a positive effect on energy intensity. Therefore, the policy of paying attention to financial market variables and financial development indicators can improve energy intensity and increase energy efficiency.

Financing flow needed for production sector is allocated from various markets including stock market, therefore, it is expected, any fluctuations in this market effects on output. For this reason, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between fluctuations in stock market prices and business cycles, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Iran economy. In this structure, along with wage income, the households have financial wealth that is effective on the current and future consumption. Moreover, the households divided into two categories: those households that already have accumulated wealth in financial market and are ready to leave the market and those households that has not any activity and accumulated wealth in this market, yet, and are ready to enter the market.

at first, seasonal data are extracted from the time series databases of the Central Bank. Then, using Eviews software, the mentioned data are seasonally adjusted. In the following, in order to extract the cycle of the variables, at first, the long-term trend of the variables is extracted from the deseasonalized variables using the Hedrick-Prescott filter, and in the next step, the cycle of the variables is extracted using the logarithmic difference method. Finally, the cyclical data will be used for the required data.at this stage, the system of linear equations is entered into the Diner software, and then the structural parameters of the model are estimated using the Bayesian method and the data prepared in the previous stage. Finally, using the estimated model and Bayesian inference, we will investigate the role of price bubble on Iran's business cycles and the fluctuation of other macroeconomic variables.

Based on the model estimation results, the replacement rate among households in the capital market is estimated between 6% and 23%, which indicates the effective time horizon of 1.06 to 1.3 years of households' presence in the country's capital market. Also, according to the specified model, the central bank does not react to the fluctuations of the capital market.The estimation results show that a positive stock price shock leads to an increase in production and economic growth, as a result of which the production gap has become somewhat positive. According to the consumption habit hypothesis in the model, the maximum reaction of the production gap to this shock is a few periods after its occurrence. With the increase in economic growth and the improvement of production compared to the potential level, the inflation rate will find a decreasing trend. Therefore, with the occurrence of a positive stock price shock, the inflation rate will have a downward trend and production will have an upward trend, which will increase it compared to the long-term potential level. Therefore, it can be said that the formation of price bubbles in the Iranian stock market has positive effects on business cycles.But it should be kept in mind that although the price bubble can have positive effects on production and economic growth in some periods of time, because these bubbles are considered non-basic factors of the economy, they cannot be considered as a stable and continuous long-term factor. Also, the existence of a bubble in the prices shows that at some point in the future, the prices will break, and in this case, the fear of economic stagnation and a decrease in the level of economic activities is not far from expected.

The structural parameters of model is estimated using Bayesian method and data during 1383 – 1399, where we derive three important implications: firstly, data meaningfully reveals that stock prices are effective on real sector and business cycles. Secondly, the assumption of no-reaction of central bank to economic volatilities such as stock market, output and inflation is verified. Thirdly, the model endogenously includes a variable related to financial slackness, where is the stock price gap and is used in order to improving measuring model dynamics. This variable is capable to depict volatilities in stock market. At last, the results from simulations show that volatilities in stock market prices have positive effect on output and business cycles in Iran.

One of the challenging issues of the present era is climate change and its adverse effects due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere. One of the proposed solutions to this challenge is to move towards clean energy sources and absorb carbon dioxide, for example, through foresting. Therefore, the present study aimed to measure the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of economic sectors of Kurdistan province and determine the contribution of CO2 uptake in the province’s forests. In previous studies, the pattern of energy consumption at the sector level and in the form of energy content in the region has yet to be considered. They have not been able to highlight its environmental impacts. Therefore, this study is currently trying to measure the energy and greenhouse gases of Kurdistan province within the framework of the input-output model and highlight the environmental impacts of co2 emissions.

This study aims to measure the energy and greenhouse gas content of different economic sectors of Kurdistan province based on the input-output table and determine the contribution of carbon dioxide uptake in the province’s forests. The advantage of preparing a regional input-output table is that it is possible to identify each region's facilities and limitations of production and economical construction by relying on them and using them in the region’s development and achieving national development with regional development. For this purpose, an input-output table and hydrocarbon balance sheet have been used. Using the import separation technique and MFLQ method and according to the statistics related to national and regional accounts, the input-output table of Kurdistan province for 2016 (to show the orientation and policies of economic sectors) has been estimated. Then, using this table, the content of greenhouse gases is measured. In discussing the CO2 absorption capacity of forests in the province, using vegetation area and annual absorption rate per hectare of forest, carbon dioxide emitted and the amount of forest needed for carbon dioxide absorption have been calculated.

The results show that transportation and power plants have the province's most significant share in greenhouse gas consumption, respectively. Those with positive trade balances are among the most critical sectors requiring careful revision and planning. Also, Kurdistan's biological capacity is about 560,000 hectares. However, the forest necessary to attract more than 6 million hectares is facing a deficit. Therefore, Kurdistan Province needs long-term policy-making by studying the nature of sectors in terms of emissions and identifying the relationships between economic activities.

This study seeks to measure the greenhouse gas emissions content of different economic sectors of Kurdistan province based on the input-output table and determine the contribution of carbon dioxide absorption in the province’s forests, i.e. the amount of energy consumed in the production of goods and services directly and indirectly. Here are three greenhouse gases CO2, NOX, and SO2. The aim of comparing the direct and indirect content of greenhouse gases in 2001 and 2011 is to show the direction and policy-making of economic sectors.

The Middle East is one of the regions with a wide range of ethnic and religious diversity. The high share of energy supply has also led to the concentration of regional and supra-regional powers in the region. In recent years, a large share of terrorist attacks has taken place in the Middle East, which in addition to human losses, has had a major negative impact on investment, tourism and economic growth in the Middle East. Therefore, identifying the effect of terrorist activities on attracting foreign direct investment of these countries in the economic and security policies of these countries is important and necessary. Foreign investors are often reluctant to be aware of all the risks involved. The risks posed by terrorist incidents are no exception to this principle, especially when the target of terrorist attacks is to intimidate a foreign investor. The risks of terrorism increase the cost of starting a business by spending a lot of money on security and insurance of economic activity, the cost of preventive measures, and the high wages of employees who are at risk. These costs reduce the expected performance of investment activity, and as terrorist risks rise above a certain level, the foreign investor will move its capital to a safer area. Political factors are slightly different from their conditions and function in terms of economic factors. The economic base of countries, especially developing countries, is very vulnerable in the face of unacceptable domestic factors. Political instability, as the main internal factor, has the closest reaction to the content of economic security in terms of effectiveness on factors of production. In developing countries, uncertainties that arise in the face of political instability and the perpetration of violent norms (such as terrorist attacks) lead to declining investment, the country's inability to successfully attract foreign investment, and capital flight. د گردد. The manifestation of terrorism is one of the indicators of political instability that is considered as one of the serious problems of the international community, especially in developing countries, and its consequences are broad on the development of global economic and political ties.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between terrorism and the inflow of foreign direct investment in the Middle East using spatial econometrics during the period 2008-2019 using the space autocorrelation model (SAC). Statistics and information required for the three variables of foreign direct investment, inflation rate and degree of trade openness from the World Bank website and for the variable of terrorism, from the global database of terrorism and for the index of political instability, property rights and democracy from The ICRG site affiliated with PRS GROUP has been extracted for the period 2008-2019 in 15 Middle Eastern countries.

First, to investigate the spatial dependence of Moran and Jerry C tests, the spatial dependence of countries was confirmed and based on the significance of Moran test, the research model was estimated in the framework of spatial autocorrelation. According to the research results, terrorist activities show negative and destructive effects on attracting foreign direct investment in these areas and this result is consistent with the results of other studies such as Panahi (2013) and Salmani (Salmani, 2014) is. According to the research results, the variables of degree of trade openness and democracy have a positive and significant effect on attracting foreign direct investment in the study areas, while the variables of political instability, property rights and inflation have an impact. Negative and significant on attracting foreign direct investment in the study areas, among which the number of terrorist attacks has the most negative impact on attracting foreign direct investment, as well as property rights index, political instability, degree of trade openness. , Democracy and inflation rate have the greatest impact on the economic growth of these countries, respectively.

Foreign direct investment is one of the main components of economic development and its flow has great effects on a country's economy. In other words, terrorist activities reduce the security and confidence of investors in countries exposed to terrorist activities and reduce the flow of foreign direct investment. On the other hand, the anti-terrorist security costs imposed on the economy reduce the economic potential. The economic effects of international terrorism can be analyzed in the short and long term. In the short run, terrorism leads to financial losses, losses and the creation of an insecure investment environment, and in the long run, international terrorism diverts capital resources by increasing national security spending and counter-terrorism activities. The transition to these costs and tax increases. To explain why spatial regression is used in this study, it can be added that the variable of terrorist activities in area j will not be affected only by internal factors in that area. When the number of terrorist activities in the neighboring country increases, it has a negative effect on attracting foreign direct investment to neighboring countries (spillover effects) and also if the terrorist activities are effective in region j, it indicates the phenomenon of spatial dependence that conventional econometrics is possible. Does not estimate and identify these effects and factors.

In the age of globalization, awareness of sustainability issues is rapidly increasing among organizations, which creates a greater need to implement sustainable actions in supply chains to reduce social, economic and environmental problems. Sustainability is defined by the World Environment Commission as a development that meets the needs of the current generation with an awareness of natural resource scarcity. Over time, the relative importance of social, economic, and environmental dimensions to sustainability has varied. Managing all aspects of sustainability in an organization has become challenging due to the need for its overall restructuring with a focus on adopting fourth-generation industrial technologies, clean production, and circular economy measures. To address the challenges of changing the paradigm to sustainable, the concept of circular economics has received a great deal of attention around the world and has increasingly emerged as a new approach to creating sustainable business. A circular economy is a model that reduces waste production and emissions. Achieving economic benefits, minimizing environmental impacts and increasing resource efficiency are the main goals of the circular economy. This concept has emerged as a new industrial model and as a solution to reduce the negative effects of linear economics. This type of economic system is a good opportunity to reduce the use of raw materials, protect material resources and also reduce the impact of carbon. Its main purpose is to distinguish economic growth from the constraints of natural resources and social effects. Clean production is one of the new concepts that integrates several environmental design strategies and can be considered as a potential factor in a circular economy. Clean production emphasizes the integration of the relationship between the environment and management. In the age of industrial digitalization, the connection between fourth generation industries and the circular economy has made it possible to discover different ways in which environmental sustainability goals can be achieved. In this interaction, the digitalization of industries is increasingly playing the role of facilitator in clean production. This revolution is playing an important role in the sustainability of businesses. These technologies can enable real-time resource allocation programs and coordination with suppliers in sustainable production by gathering the information needed in real time from the intelligent manufacturing system. In view of the above, industries must increase their efforts to achieve sustainability goals and adopt innovative approaches during the action. Therefore, the main question of the research is: what are the factors of circular economy, clean production and fourth generation industrial revolution effective in evaluating sustainable performance in food industry and improving its productivity? And what is the relative importance of each of them? The present study is innovative in terms of combining and simultaneously paying attention to the components of circular economy, clean production and the fourth generation industrial revolution in the era of digitalization of industries to evaluate their performance.

The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of method and nature. The research area is the active manufacturing industries in the food sector of Bushehr province. At first, dimensions and indicators were identified by library method and based on the study and content analysis of theoretical and experimental foundations of research.The statistical population of this research consisted of experts and industrial and academic experts who were familiar with the subject empirically and theoretically. Eight of them were selected as sample members by non-randomized purposive judgmental method. In this section, the criteria for selecting experts were their theoretical familiarity and expertise in the fields of environmentalism, sustainable management, the 4.0 generation industrial revolution, and circular economics. The data collection tool is a researcher-made questionnaire. The validity of this questionnaire was confirmed by face content analysis approach and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha method with a value of 0.705. In order to analyze the data, the stepwise or equilibrium evaluation ratio analysis approach was used in fuzzy environment. This approach is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods for weighting the indicators. The main feature of this method compared to other similar methods is its ability to evaluate the accuracy of experts' opinions about the weight indicators given during the method process, ease of implementation and no need for high comparisons. In addition, in this method, experts can consult with each other, which makes the results more accurate than other methods.

In order to analyze the data, the stepwise or equilibrium evaluation ratio analysis approach was used in fuzzy environment. After identifying the indicators, a questionnaire was designed and provided to the experts in absentia to receive comments.

The results showed that clean production and circular economy have the highest relative importance of improving the sustainable performance of manufacturing industries, respectively. Gupta et al. (2021), in their study, stated that circular economy and clean production have the most prominent role in the sustainable performance of organizations, which is consistent with the results of this study. Also, among the indicators; Excellent management support, waste recycling, energy and resource management and 3D printing have the highest weight. Therefore, more attention should be paid to these factors. However, it should be noted that the implementation of each of the indicators is likely to have many obstacles and contradictions; Therefore, researchers can explore these problems in future studies.This can be due to the lack of access to technology transfer and learning channels (including imitation through observation of fourth generation industries, import of equipment and technical knowledge, scientific and technological relations with leading countries). Strengthen the infrastructure and prerequisites needed for the country's industries to implement the developments of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. One of the limitations of this research can be in collecting data with a researcher-made questionnaire in the form of new dimensions and concepts based on the opinions of experts. The basic premise of this method is the equality of experts in terms of knowledge. Since there is a knowledge gap between experts in terms of familiarity with the concepts of these dimensions, this can lead to bias. Therefore, it is hoped that this limitation will be removed in other research by taking the necessary measures.