نشریه آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
سال چهارم شماره 2 (پیاپی 13، تابستان 1402)

Science and technology foresight is a collaborative, time-consuming and complex process. These features have led governments to design and implement this process in most countries. Identifying and prioritizing key success factors in the foresight process can help better decision-making in designing and implementing foresight in the country and facilitates budget allocation and resource allocation. Therefore, this study aimed to identify and prioritize key factors for the success of science and technology foresight in Iran.

This study is an applied research from the point of view of purpose. The data were collected in two ways: library and field, and “network analysis” was used to prioritize the factors.

The results of data network analysis showed that 41 key factors affect the success of science and technology foresight in Iran. According to the opinions of the experts, the following 10 factors with a final weight above 0.30 are more important: Establishing workshops in the early stages of the foresight process (0.338), focusing on soft technologies (0.332), forming foresight team (0.329), government requirement and support (0.321), enhancing technology intelligence (0.320), technology attraction alongside technology feasibility (0.317), emerging and interdisciplinary areas (0.313), regularly foresight activities (0.311), focusing on second and third class consequences (0.303), and initial design (0.301).

Special attention to the most important key factors that have the highest final weight in network analysis is recommended to decision makers and government managers responsible for science and technology foresight process in Iran.

Futures Studies as an emerging trans-disciplinary science is quickly gaining legitimacy and expansion in both theory and practical areas. Military and security sections have always been the main customers of future-oriented analytical research. One of the major obstacles in the way of generalization futures studies and acquisition of scientific pervasive legitimacy are epistemological and methodological challenges in this area. This paper will consider compliance futures studies with the current framework of social science. Then, the article reviews the philosophy of science, and in particular some of the early paradigms such as critical realism and pragmatism. We followed this article with an attempt to seek appropriate philosophical paradigms for Muslim futurists. Therefore, the article tries to seek the crude proposed Islamic realism (with the taste of transcendental wisdom and realism of Allameh Tabatabai).In this way, future studies in the military fields can be based on the Strong foundation of the epistemological framework in which the validity of reason and quotation is accepted from the achievements of the colleges of the Military colleges and the school of theology simultaneously to benefit.

The spirit of resistance and standing against tyranny and oppressors is one of the natural and moral traits that exist in the institutions of all independence-seeking and freedom-seeking people, which without doubt based on historical evidence and reports and experience, it can be said that Muslim groups and countries, considering the rich Islamic culture and knowledge Elahi has always been one of the most prominent people throughout history who have shown resistance and resistance against their enemies. Therefore, in the present research, by mentioning this feature that Muslims are the second largest population of divine religions and have an important and decisive role in various issues: political, social, security, etc., in different and sensitive parts of the world, using descriptive method. - An analysis has been attempted, focusing on the Holy Qur'an and the traditions of the Innocents (PBUH), in addition to identifying, investigating and analyzing the military-security challenges and harms of the Islamic resistance culture in two internal dimensions such as: antipathy, false superiority, optimism and so on. .. and the external dimension such as: terror, spreading rumours, bribery, etc., each of which can somehow make the culture of Islamic resistance face serious challenges and vulnerability in the face of enemies.

Although the history of foresight dates back to the 1940s (Jemala, 2010) its application is expanding as an enhanced interdisciplinary approach to strategic planning. In Iran, strategic foresight has received attention during the last decade, and with the passage of time, its use in public and private organizations is also increasing.In this study, with the aim of synthesis of published articles on strategic planning and strategic foresight in Iran, in the first stage, a systematic review of the literature, all published articles in the field of foresight and strategic planning in Iran were reviewed. In the second stage, based on the indicators that are used as criteria in this article, 53 articles were selected and reviewed based on Qualitative Research Synthesis method.Based on the research findings, the gap of strategic foresight articles that have methodically documented the key steps is very significant and we expect the output of strategic foresight to be methodically and systematically strategic planning. Unfortunately, between all of the strategic foresight articles, only 8 percent have presented this output, and one article states that strategic planning was done but not reflected in the article. Other articles suffice to suggest some solutions without mentioning the method of achieving them or are not considered as strategic foresight. (Traditionally, without futures studies, they have planned.)Finally, the indigenous model of strategic foresight is presented based on the results of meta-analysis; Which includes four stages of framing (by internal and external environment analysis method), horizon scanning (by cross impact analysis method), forecasting (by scenario method) and strategic planning (by SWOT method).

In formulating general policies of the 7th Development Plan, special attention should be paid to regional talents and local partnerships. The aim of the current research is to examine the appropriate prospective approach in the formulation of the 7th Development Plan, and it is analyzed analytically and provides the necessary solutions along with it. The current research is based on the purpose, practical and from the perspective of how to collect and analyze data in the field of descriptive studies. The present article has analyzed the gap between the existing situation and the intended goals through library studies and document review in a theoretical way and using the method of gap analysis. The research results show that the implementation of development thinking A region can be realized in the functional field of economic and social activities and by using the regional foresight approach, and in this cycle regional distinctions and talents should be considered in detail. , universal access to development services and achievements, as well as in line with the implementation of the general policies of the resistance economy and in order to create balance and benefit from the facilities of the regions and improve the ability against all kinds of threats, attention to regional development should be given special attention. By examining the prospective approach of development in Iran, this research increases the power of the study in order to find meaningful results and help the planners and policy makers of the 7th Development Plan and provides a suitable summary from their analysis based on documentation.

Economic progress with minimal damage to the environment is one of the important values of this era. One of the new fields that have been made more exploitable with the development of new technologies is the sea and the ocean. The deep seas and the far oceans are a field whose economic use has been provided more than in the past. In order to focus knowledge in this field, the general title of blue economy or ocean economy has been formed and this title, as a special keyword, has been decided upon by researchers, policy makers and decision makers. In this research, both in order to introduce this topic and to gain initial knowledge of the dimensions of this field in different fields, we sought to know its trends and megatrends in a future-oriented way. With the method of systematic literature review, the specialized domain of this field was examined in 6 main areas in order to extract its trends and technologies, and then, using thematic analysis and expert workshop, coding of the initial trends was done in order to reach its megatrends. Finally, in 6 main areas of blue economy, 168 microtrends and technologies were extracted, which were categorized under 9 megatrends of flotation, smarttization, destruction, greeification, profitablization, habitablization, novelization, extraction, and conflictualization.