پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال هفدهم شماره 34 (تابستان 1401)

Expenditures and tax revenues are among the most important fiscal instruments available to the government to affect the economy. Considering the prevailing conditions in economies, governments can create acceptable economic prosperity by determining and applying fiscal policies. The role of government fiscal instruments on economic welfare has been an issue that, contrary to its importance, has been less considered in domestic and foreign studies. Therefore, the present study aims to calculate economic well-being during the last five decades and analyze its determinants. For this purpose, first, the index of economic well-being has been calculated based on four dimensions of consumption flows, wealth stocks, economic inequality and economic insecurity. The results of calculating the index of economic well-being show that the highest level of economic well-being with 174 is related to 2017, and the lowest level with 71 is related to 1971. Then, the effect of government fiscal instruments and other variables in the form of two models using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model from 1971 to 2020 has been examined. The long-term results of estimating the research model in two formats show that the size of the government and the ratio of current expenditures to construction have a direct (favorable) and reverse (unfavorable) effect on economic well-being, respectively. Direct and indirect taxes have favorable and unfavorable effects on economic well-being, respectively. However, no significant effect has been found for total taxation. Also, economic growth and real per capita income directly (favorably) and inflation reversely (unfavorably) affect economic well-being. Based on the results of this study, it is suggested that economic policymakers for increasing the level of economic well-being in Iran, implement an expansionary fiscal policy with an emphasis on increasing construction spending (to the extent that it does not replace private investment) and reducing indirect taxes.

Investigating the volatility and irregular fluctuations of business cycles is one of the most important issues in macroeconomic policy making. in previous models that have been examined, the real growth rate of the economy is constant, while the shocks that affect the real growth rate the changes in this state, which creates the variance and the stability state of the economy. It was not fixed.In this study, using Markovian regime change in variance (MS-GARCH) models, the stability of fluctuations in different regimes governing the growth of Iran's real gross product with seasonal intervals for the years 1383:1-1399:4 has been investigated. the comparison between the models has been done using two features, RMSE and MAE.The results indicate that the stability coefficient of the regime with high volatility (unstable) is equal to the stability coefficient with mild volatility (stable), and since the probability of entering a stable regime is 2.5 times higher than the probability of entering an unstable regime, therefore, macroeconomic policy makers should pay more attention to the consequences of the policies adopted due to the costs of exiting the recession. Because the desire to enter the stages of recession is not only much higher, but the persistence to remain in recession periods is also 4 times more than in boom periods.

Considering the significant role of the government in Iran's economy, this study aims to investigate the impact of government size on the growth of the value-added of the industry and mining sectors, as well as to examine how sanctions have affected these vital sectors. To achieve these objectives, the present research has modeled the growth of Iran's industrial and mining sectors' value-added from 1980 to 2019, using the Markov switching method. The research model's estimation results indicate that government size has a negative effect on both sectors' value-added growth. Furthermore, the findings reveal that sanctions severity has a negative impact on these two sectors' value-added growth. Therefore, according to the results, real privatization and decreasing government size in the Iranian economy as well as the efforts for lifting sanctions to achieve boosting economic growth in the industry and mining sectors have been suggested.

One of the requirements of leading the knowledge-based economy by relying on science production and commercialization is the provision of financial resources for knowledge-based companies. Considering the need for minimal and targeted government intervention and hidden behavioral issues such as adverse selection and moral hazard, this study analyzed the optimality of three funding mechanisms, including financing through the private sector, providing facilities, and support through the payment of subsidies to venture capitalists. Using the information available in 2020 and inspired by the study of Lach et al. (2020), the present research simulated the model for Iran. The results showed that the highest level of social welfare is related to the support of entrepreneurial projects through a contract with the minimum participation of the knowledge-based company in the commercialization of the product from internal sources and receiving the facilities with the maximum loan rate. The support mechanism through the subsidy payment to venture capitalists is second in terms of welfare. The government promotes the growth of knowledge-based companies by providing financial resources and incentives to venture capitalists. Government support through providing a contract with maximum participation in financing and receiving facilities with a minimum loan rate and the private venture capitalist’s aid are ranked third and fourth in welfare, respectively. By choosing the optimal policy, the government can improve the welfare state and provide intelligent support for knowledge-based companies.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of government spending policy uncertainty on the real sector of the economy in recession and boom regimes using the rotation model and Markov switching regime change in the period from 1365 to 1399. Considering the importance of the effect of economic policies and the uncertainty of the government's spending policy on the real variables of the economy such as production and employment; Clarifying the relationship between the uncertainty of the government's spending policy and economic activities can open the way for the country's macro-planning. The findings showed that the uncertainty of current and construction expenditures, oil, monetary and currency shocks, financial crisis, and sanctions in recession conditions cause a decrease in GDP and employment. In addition to this, the duration of production stagnation and boom period is 20 and 15 years, respectively, and these values for employment are 21 and 14 years, respectively. Therefore, the rate of permanence during Iran's recession has a high probability. These factors increase the risk of investing in Iran and lead to a decrease in production and employment.Key words: uncertainty, government spending, Markov switching regime change model, Recession and boomJEL Classification: C24, G32, G19.

The issue of energy efficiency is very important due to the limitation of non-renewable resources, greenhouse gas emissions, loss of green areas, global warming, and environmental pollution. The importance of this issue in Iran is twofold due to the dependence of the country's foreign exchange earnings on energy resources. The energy intensity index, which measures the energy consumed for GDP, is one of the most important indicators for assessing energy efficiency. This index is affected by many nominal and real economic, political, and social variables that need to be examined to improve energy efficiency, the effect of these factors on the intensity of energy consumption. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of nominal and real impulses in the energy intensity in Iran According to the time series data of 1353-1399, the research model itself regression (SVAR) model is estimated. The results of the instantaneous reaction functions and analysis of variance show that the effect of the real exchange rate and liquidity on the intensity of positive and sustainable energy consumption and the impact of government expenditure and total productivity of the total production factors has been negative and stable. The also has a negative effect. Also, real impulses (productivity of total production factors and real exchange rates) have a greater contribution to the intensity of energy intensity.