فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 47 (پاییز 1402)

The problem of the current research is the estimation of the matrix of national inter-sector capital coefficients. This matrix is an important parameter of the economic structure and the main axis of dynamic input-output tables and a very efficient way for economic forecasting. The purpose of this article is to estimate the investment required to achieve the goals of the sixth five-year plan of economic development with the help of the matrix of national capital coefficients. For this purpose, an effort is made to solve the problem of not aligning the dynamic input-output table, which has been neglected in other researchers conducted in the country, and the results in two cases of the proposed approach of this article with other methods used in other researchers conducted in the country for 2015 to be compared. The statistical population in this research is the entire economy of Iran and economic sectors are considered, according to the Central Bank’s capital balance information, including agriculture, oil and gas, mining, industry, water and electricity and gas, construction, transportation, communications, Real estate and other services. The results show that the linear normalization of the initial capital matrix reduces the capital coefficients, and the required investment for most sectors will be estimated higher than in the case of no normalization.

The aim of this study is to investigate private and public investment on the growth of the health sector in Iran. For this purpose, the model was investigated with the multinomial logit approach; the 1981-2019 period data of the variable were used. Based on the results of the model with the increase of private investment, the growth of the health sector increases. Also, with the increase of public investment, the growth of the health sector will increase. Among the economic factors economic growth and interest rate lead to an increase. In foreign direct investment, exchange rate and inflation rate, lead to a decrease in the growth of the health sector. Among the social factors, the literacy rate leads to an increase and the AIDS rate leads to a decrease in the growth of the health sector; among the environmental factors, the population (urbanization rate) leads to an increase in the growth of the health sector. Also, according to the defined model and the examination of the final effects, the health expenditure index and the health index (life expectancy) are related to the growth of the health sector, and the increase of these two indices causes the growth of health in Iran. Paying attention to the role of governance in the public sector investments and the profitability of private sector investments, creates favorable and eligible conditions for optimality using foreign direct investments. It also plays a role on education and training, with regard to its positive impact on health growth. Also, emphasizing the role of education and providing new and free medical services to AIDS patients is one of the suggestions of this research in improving the health sector in Iran.

The informal economy affects various economic sector, including the monetary sector. The velocity of money is one of the important monetary variables that have important effects on the results of monetary policies. In this study, the effect of the size of the informal economy on the velocity of money in Iran has been investigated using annual data during the period of 1990-2018. Using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the relationship between the variables has been investigated. The results of the research model show that the larger the size of the informal economy, the faster the velocity of money, which indicates the positive effect of the money demand channel in the shadow economy on the velocity of money. Additionally, other explanatory variables including inflation rate, economic growth, and bank lending also show a positive effect on the velocity of money. Moreover, the results show that changes in the informal economy can lead to asymmetric changes in the velocity of money. Therefore, the activities of the informal economy affect the velocity of money, the money market, and the performance of monetary policies in Iran. It is crucial for policy makers to consider the role of informal and shadow economy activities in assessing the consequences of economic policies. Based on the research fundings, measures including inflation control, limiting informal economy activities, and increasing bank credits should be taken into account in order to control the velocity of money. Given the positive relationship between the velocity of money and the informal economy, it can be said that any policy that limits the shadow economy reduces the velocity of money and affects the effectiveness of monetary policy.

The experience of the world economy over the last few decades shows that herd behavior is one of the main factors in the formation of financial crises. In identifying the causes of such behavior, economists have pointed the finger of accusation at various factors, and it can be said that monetary policy is at the top of this list. Because of the harmful effects of herd behavior on stock market, identifying the factors influencing this type of behaviour can be of great importance. As a result, the main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary policy on the formation of herd behavior in Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, using the monthly data from April 2009 to March 2021 and using the non-linear STR-GARCH model, the effect of monetary policy on the formation of herd behavior in the Iranian stock market was investigated. This method allows the researcher to model the non-linear pattern in herd behavior. In the estimated model, Chang et al.’s index (2000) was used to measure the dispersion of stock returns around the market return, also, the monetary policy variable (growth of liquidity) was used as threshold variable. By choosing this variable as a threshold variable, we can check whether changes in this variable can lead to a transition from a rational regime to a herd regime or not. The results of the study indicate that herd behavior in Tehran Stock Exchange has a variable behavior over time and the linear model is not suitable for investigating such behavior. Also, the results of the research show that based on different values of liquidity growth variable, the behavior of investors changes, so that for monthly liquidity growth values smaller than 2.3%, rational behavior is observed in investment decisions, but with an increase in the growth rate of liquidity and crossing this threshold, over time, herd behavior becomes the dominant behavior in the stock market.

The purpose of this article is to estimate the short-run and long-run income inequality effects on the industrial total factor productivity in the provinces of Iran. For this purpose, panel data of 31 provinces of Iran are used for the period of 2011-2019. First, Malmquist’s total productivity index was estimated by data envelopment analysis. Then, the long-run and short-run effects of income inequality on TFP were evaluated by static and dynamic spatial econometric models. The findings show that the negative effect of income inequality on total productivity is locally confirmed in the long-run, but its spatial spillover effects are not sustainable. According to the results of the long-run total effect, inequality has a negative and significant effect on the industrial total productivity in the long-run. In the short-run, in the spatial lagged model (SAR), the inequality local effects on TFP are negative and significant, but in the spatial durbin model (SDM), this effect is negative and insignificant. The short-run spatial spillover and total effects of income inequality on industrial total productivity are negative and significant in the spatial lagged model, but positive and insignificant in the spatial durbin model. In sum, according to the short-run and long-run results, the increase in income inequality in Iran’s provinces has a negative and significant effect on TFP in the long-run.

Economists and policymakers worldwide consider economic growth and inflation as crucial macroeconomic variables. The correlation between these two variables has been a captivating topic in recent decades, but the literature lacks clarity on this relationship. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the connection between inflation and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries during the 2000-2021 period using a threshold panel model. The empirical findings suggest that there is a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth in these countries. Specifically, when inflation is below 10.1 percent, it has not a significant impact on economic growth. However, beyond this threshold level of inflation, it has a significant negative impact on economic growth. High inflation as a way of increasing inflation expectations may increase the cost of production and decrease production and economic growth. Furthermore, high inflation leads to high volatility in inflation expectations which increases uncertainty in investment and production. This volatility damages people’s confidence in government policies which may decrease the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in the economy. Moreover, high inflation decreases the competitive power of domestic producers against foreign producers which decreases exports and ultimately leads to decreased economic growth.