فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 144 (پاییز 1402)

Nowadays, as the most diverse, the tourism industry is the most vital source of income and job opportunities for many countries in the world. Iran has the potential to attract tourists due to its rich historical, geographical, cultural, and natural attractions. Iran has the potential to attract tourists due to its rich historical, geographical, cultural, and natural attractions. Knowing the factors affecting the tourism industry is critical; however, identifying tourism obstacles can be more vital. In today's world, various risks affect the economy of countries. On the other hand, climate change has become the most crucial concern of humankind in this century. This paper uses the quantile regression method to investigate the impact of country risk, including economic risk, political risk, financial risk, and ecological footprint, on tourism demand in Iran from 1989 to 2020. The results of this research illustrate that country risk and its components have a negative and significant impact on tourism demand in Iran; this can demonstrate the importance of risk and uncertainty in Iran's economy. Moreover, the ecological footprint as a proxy of climate change negatively and significantly affects tourism demand in Iran. According to the research results, it is suggested that policymakers adjust the policies to reduce the country's risk and increase the confidence of foreign tourists to travel to Iran. On the other hand, paying attention to the climate change crisis should become more critical for the government and society; otherwise, this crisis can negatively affect tourist attractions in Iran.

In this study, economic well-being and the underground economy were calculated and estimated using the Index of Economic Well-Being (IEWB), and the MIMIC method, respectively. Then, using the ARDL method in linear (symmetric) and non-linear (asymmetric) formats, the effect of oil rent on economic well-being was investigated according to the level of the underground economy over the period 1973 to 2021. The long-run results demonstrate that oil rent has a positive effect on economic well-being in a symmetric model. In an asymmetric form, oil rent has a positive and asymmetric effect on economic well-being, which means that with increases in oil rent, economic well-being boosts, and with its decreases, economic well-being lessens. Also, the impact of increases in oil rent on economic well-being is more than its decreases. Another finding is that the higher size of the underground economy causes a reduction in the favorable effect of increases in oil rent on economic well-being. The inflation rate has a negative effect on economic well-being in both models. According to the results, it is suggested that governments should strengthen the tax system and the National Development Fund during increases in oil rent, so that economic well-being is not damaged when decreases in oil rent.

In efficient markets, all agents are rational, and new information becomes immediately available to everyone, resulting in instantaneous price adjustments. However, in the real world, market participants differ significantly in both their access to information and their interpretation of it, leading to information asymmetry. Accurately determining the level of information asymmetry is crucial for traders to make appropriate decisions regarding asset selection, timing, risk level redefinition, and required rate of return. It is also essential for regulators to achieve designing a well-functioning market. In this paper, we estimate the level of information asymmetry using 1,260 stocks/quarters data (140 companies across 10 industries, constituting 64% of Iran's stock market value, during 1400-Q1 to 1402-Q1) by employing two prominent models, PIN and MPIN. The results indicate that, first, the probability of private information in the Iranian stock market is much higher than in other countires. Second, the highest level of information asymmetry is observed in the "Agriculture" industry, conversely, the "Petroleum Products" and "Chemical" industries exhibit the lowest MPIN values. Third, at the firm-specific level, "ZMLRD" from the Agriculture industry exhibits the highest information asymmetry, while "ARYA" from the Chemical industry shows the lowest level of information asymmetry. The findings imply that industries/companies with low market shares that produce more heterogeneous and diverse products experience higher information asymmetry. In contrast, Petro-Chimical industries/companies, with high market shares that produce relatively more homogeneous products, have less information asymmetry.

Bank competition and financial stability is one of recent topics which researchers have paid attention since global financial crisis. This study is investigating the effect of competition on systemic stability in Iran’s banking system.Statistical population is all Iranian banks under supervision of centeral bank and our sample consist of 20 banks in period of 2009 and 2021. Lerner index and Herfindahl–Hirschman index are proxies of market power and concentration respectively. ΔCoVaR is our systemic risk measure which can be decomposed into its components.Lerner index had a statistically significant positive relationship with ΔCoVaR while HHI didn’t. Market power haven’t shown any effect on idiosyncratic tail risk and the risk caused by macroeconomic and financial factors, as well as the combination of the two, and in other words, it doesn’t affect the overall systemic risk through this channel. However, the HHI has had a positive and significant effect. Also, market power has a positive and significant relationship with the interconnectedness component, while the concentration index has not shown a significant relationship.This study has proven that the more competitive system, the more stable. Meanwhile, market power affects systemic risk through interconnectedness, but idiosyncratic risk is the effective channel for concentration.

The financial crisis of 2008 has highlighted the need to comprehend the financial interrelationships among the various economic sectors as well as between those sectors and the outside world. This study has analyzed how changes in financial assets and liabilities as well as net financial investments by household institutional sectors, non-financial firms, banks, government and foreign sector affect expansionary monetary shocks. In this regard, an accurate analyzing could provide helpful guidance in making the appropriate policies for influencing macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, a FAVAR model was employed using data from 1973-2019. It was concluded that expansionary monetary shocks increased both the acquisition of new financial assets and the issuance of new liabilities of various national economic sectors. Meanwhile, the banks were net borrowers from other economic sectors and other sectors - except the non-financial firms and the government that response with a delay– were net lenders in the first year. However, all national economic sectors turned into lenders and the foreign sector had become the borrower after the first year is passed. The reason for this appears to be the difference between domestic rate of return and foreign interest rate. Along with net capital outflow occurs for two years significantly

This paper investigates the relative contributions of nominal exchange rates and relative price adjustments toward PPP in a VECM framework in Iran. In conducting empirical tests, annual time series data were used covering the period of 1357 to 1401. The cointegration test indicates the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and relative price. Also, the adjustment speed coefficient of the real exchange rate resulting from the difference in the adjustment speeds of the variables of the VECM model is around -0/2. This value indicates the slow adjustment process in such a way that it is expected that 80% of the current period's deviation from purchasing power parity will remain for the next year. On the other hand, the evidence from impulse response functions shows that relative price shocks lead to much longer real exchange rate deviations than nominal exchange rate shocks. Also, the nominal exchange rate in response to the relative price impulse is slowly on its long-term equilibrium path; While the relative price reacts to the impulse of the nominal exchange rate, it is placed on the path of its long-term equilibrium at a faster rate. In general, it can be said that to establish purchasing power parity, the relative price will play a more important role than the nominal exchange rate. Thus, Iranian policymakers must pay attention to price stabilization and the reduction of high inflation rates through appropriate macroeconomic policy.