پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال هجدهم شماره 38 (تابستان 1402)

Despite the significant role of ICT in various fields, equal opportunities have not been provided for all segments of society, and the digital divide has emerged as a new phenomenon on a global and regional scale. The digital divide is a complex and multidimensional issue that is defined by three factors: access to ICT, skills and competencies, and the social and economic effects of ICT use. Measuring the digital divide requires taking into account various variables. In this study, the digital divide was calculated using four factors: access to landline and mobile phones, internet access, and computer ownership. The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the factors affecting the digital divide at the provincial level in Iran. Using a combined data method for 31 provinces of Iran during the period of 2005-2020 and employing a generalized regression model, the study examined the effects of socio-economic factors on the digital divide. The results indicate that two variables, inflation and population, are insignificant, while other variables examined (income inequality, mobile phone access, gross domestic product, education, and urbanization) have a direct and significant impact on the digital divide. According to the results, allocating credit, encouraging private sector participation and investment, increasing citizens' interest in using digital services, and expanding the scope of service delivery to remote and deprived areas are effective solutions for reducing the digital divide.

The global financial industry has been changing rapidly with the advancement of financial technology in the last few years. New emerging technologies such as internet finance, blockchain and mobile banking have revolutionized the financial industry. As a financial innovation, fintech has created profound changes in payment patterns and by relying on new transaction methods such as mobile payment, it has enabled traditional finance to overcome geographical and time limitations. The presence of fintech technology provides cheaper services with more choices for consumers to purchase financial services, which leads people's financial behavior towards digitalization. The emergence of financial technology has created new business models that challenge traditional risk-taking approaches. Based on this, it is necessary to gain insight into the impact of fintech innovation on the risk-taking of the banking system. Therefore, this article examines the impact of banking fintech innovation on their risk-taking using panel data in Iranian banks between 1386 and 1400. The experimental results show that the improvement of fintech innovation significantly reduces the risk-taking of banks. Banking fintech by using cryptographic technology for financial transactions, electronic equipment and financial software, they increase the security of transactions, increase the transparency of the banking system, reduce the possibility of human errors in the transfer process and financial transactions, and as a result, reduce banking risk.

In order to make decisions about monetary policies, monetary policy makers must have an accurate assessment of the duration and extent of the policy's effect on the economy. This accurate evaluation of policies requires an understanding of the mechanisms according to which monetary policy affects the real sectors of the economy. Based on the studies, there is an agreement that money is neutral in the long term and has no effect on the real sector of the economy, but there is no consensus on the effect of monetary policy on real variables in the short term. Therefore, the short-term relationship between nominal and real variables is very important for the implementation of monetary policy and needs further investigation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy through the bank lending channel on macro variables in the Iranian economy. In order to analyze the results, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method was used in terms of the structure of the banking system in the period of 1989-2022 based on the frequency of seasonal data. In the statistical analysis section, the impact of the monetary policy index on banking and macroeconomic variables was compared and evaluated. Based on the obtained results, it can be stated that most macroeconomic variables have shown the most positive reaction to the shock caused by bank loans as a channel for influencing monetary policy.

According to the technological gap theory,, the technological gap between countries can affect their economic growth and trade. Hence, in this study, the scenarios of reducing the digital divide (1%, 2% and 5%) of Eurasian countries on the growth of Iran's economic sectors (agriculture, industry and services) using the regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) was studied. For this purpose, the share of research and development expenses to GDP was used as index of the digital divide. In addition, in order to collect the required data, version 10 of the GTAP database, which includes the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 141 countries or regions and 65 sectors, was used. Data in the form of three sections including: 1- agriculture, 2- industry and 3- services and five production factors including: skilled labor, unskilled labor, natural resources, land and capital and seven regions including: Iran, member of Eurasian Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia) and other countries were collected. Finally, data analysis was done using MathLab software. Results showed that with the decrease in digital divide of Eurasian countries, economic growth of Iran's industry and mining, agriculture and service sectors will also increase. In addition, among the examined economic sectors, with the reduction in the digital divide of Eurasian countries, the economic growth of services, industry, mining and agriculture sectors in Iran will increase, respectively.

The effects of government size on multidimensional poverty as an important factor in the process of development and growth of countries has a decisive role, and various aspects and areas in developing countries have always been affected by this category. Accordingly, one of the most important goals of economic planners is to reduce the size of the government in order to prevent the spread of poverty, especially multidimensional poverty. Without taking into account the different dimensions of poverty, it is not possible to make an accurate analysis of poverty and its effects on societies. Therefore, the current research aims to evaluate the effects of government size on multidimensional poverty for Iran and a selection of developing countries in the period of 2012-2021 using the method of generalized moments. The results of the study indicate that the government size index has a non-linear effect on multidimensional poverty. The government size index at its low levels has left a negative impact on multidimensional poverty, but the increase in the level of the government size index and its crossing of the threshold level of 18.33 has caused the aggravation of multidimensional poverty. On the other hand, the first break of multidimensional poverty has had a positive effect and the control of corruption and public health has had a negative effect on multidimensional poverty.

TThe present study examines the effect of oil price shocks on the returns of selected stocks from oil exporting countries using a two-stage method based on the structural vector autoregression model ( SVAR)and time-varying parameter regression models( TVP).The used data in this study are from the following countries, Iran,UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria, Venezuela which are OPEC member countries, Russia, Mexico and Bahrain from OPEC+member countries in the form of two monthly time series data, including oil market and stock market data from 2000 to 2021.Oil prices have been studied by separating supply and demand shocks. The results report evidence of the time-varying response of stock market returns to different oil shocks ( oil supply, aggregate demands, and demand shocks) .It shows that stock returns react to demand shocks more than supply shocks. In addition, the effect of supply shocks on stock returns is negative and small while the total demand shock has a positive effect on the stock market of the countries rather than Iran and Algeria. It also indicates that oil demand shocks have positive effects on the countries like Russia, Qatar and Mexico, but they are also less powerful than the total demand. At the same time, this shock has a negative effect at the beginning of the studied periods for the countries like Algeria,UAE, Iran as well as Saudi Arabia. It should be noted that, it has no significant effect in other periods.