فصلنامه جغرافیا
پیاپی 78 (پاییز 1402)

Resilience means thinking and creating measures to quickly return to the original state after an incident. A city without resilient infrastructure is highly vulnerable to disasters. With the increasing environmental challenges facing humans in the modern era, this concept has been expanded in various fields of science and redefined by scientists in different disciplines. This approach is seen as a suitable alternative to rigid and engineered approaches. A resilient community is capable of returning relatively quickly to its previous state, while a community with less resilience may take longer to recover or may not be able to recover at all. Iran is among the countries with very high vulnerability to natural disasters due to its geographical and geological conditions. 7.31% of its total area is in areas at risk of natural disasters, and 70% of the country's population reside in areas at risk. Increased resilience and decreased vulnerability among local communities allow for the continuous and sustainable development of residents in the face of natural threats, and subsequent disasters cannot disrupt people's lives. Therefore, explaining the relationship between resilience to threats and reducing their effects, with emphasis on its dimension, is of great importance. Therefore, if the quality of public spaces improves, the voluntary presence of citizens increases, and therefore, the possibility of diverse and higher quality activities is provided. The geographical scope of the research is district 14 of Tehran Municipality, which is one of the densely populated areas of the city and located in the eastern outskirts of Tehran. This area has very suitable welfare facilities and services, and housing costs are very reasonable, so it has a high population density and is known for its small size. This research aims to explain the resilient city based on urban planning with a tactical approach in district 14 of Tehran Municipality.

The present study consists of two theoretical and empirical sections. The theoretical section is based on library studies which focus on collecting and categorizing different theories. In the empirical method, expert opinions were used to identify and rank the influential factors on service innovation, and the information was collected and analyzed. In this research, due to the large number of experts, a sampling method was used and 100 experts were selected. This study is of an applied type in terms of purpose, and of a descriptive-analytical type in terms of method, and the information gathering method is empirical. After extracting the indicators based on expert opinions, the hierarchical analysis process is carried out to analyze them. The method of data analysis in this research is based on the prioritization model of factors affecting urban planning with a tactical approach, and examining the city's resilience using fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy BWM methods. Initially, the indicators are validated or screened by the fuzzy Delphi method, and finally weighted using the fuzzy BWM method.

District 14 of the Tehran municipality is one of the areas within the city of Tehran. Located along the course of the Red River, it originates from the eastern heights of Tehran and flows southward. Due to physical, functional, social, economic, and environmental issues, the older parts of the district have unfavorable conditions. However, guidelines for identifying these areas focus on the physical-structural aspects, and 3 criteria of instability, granularity, and penetrability have been used to recognize these districts. Among the sub-criteria for downtime-related issues, the existence of aesthetic elements has obtained the highest rank with a weight of 0.425. The presence of suitable urban furniture has obtained the second rank with a weight of 0.323, and the status of the coverage of alleys and streets has obtained the third rank with a weight of 0.25. The results demonstrate that there are appropriate opportunities for tactical urbanism in the resilient city. Researchers have also studied the measurement of social resilience in urban environments using statistical methods and have provided various frameworks, indicating that there are differences in the components and indices employed at the regional level. Researchers have emphasized topics such as physical and social resilience in historical contexts, the use of resilience indices in metropolitan management, strategic crisis management with an urban resilience approach, and the need for implementing executive programs to improve urban infrastructure resilience and using appropriate indicators and models to measure urban resilience.Regarding resilience and the use of the tactical approach, the average score for tactical urbanism was 35.62, with a minimum score of 18 and a maximum score of 52, while the average score for resilience was 70.79, with a minimum score of 57 and a maximum score of 67. The average score for presence was 10.12, with a minimum score of 4 and a maximum score of 16. The average score for downtime was 16.73, with a minimum score of 7 and a maximum score of 28, and the average score for participation was 10.12, with a minimum score of 0 and a maximum score of 7. The correlation coefficient obtained from the components of tactical urbanism with resilience was significant at 99% confidence, indicating a meaningful relationship between the two at a 0.01 level of significance.

General, tactical urbanism can be defined as a new approach that is based on community participation and the use of short-term, high-impact projects. Tactical urbanism requires taking into account some design principles to create dynamic and vibrant public spaces. Nowadays, much of the literature on urbanism discusses the ideals of tactical urbanism. Harrison notes that the characteristics of this approach include everyday spaces for public activity and the recognition that these features and everyday urban activities constitute a social product. Citizens are practically living in a tactical city every day since they follow a flexible planning in using the environment and demand active participation in shaping the urban space. Citizen participation is the first factor in achieving tactical urbanism in such a way that the neglect and lack of participation of citizens will lead to undesired outcomes. Tactical urbanism is a broad concept used to describe a variety of temporary and low-cost changes made to the built environment. These changes are usually made in cities with the goal of improving the condition of neighborhoods and public places.

By entering the 21st century and the rapid process of globalization and changing the role of cities and turning them into centers for attracting capital, goods, information, knowledge, and innovation, we are witnessing the increasing participation of cities in the global economy. An economy that changed from traditional in the last two to three decades today is based on knowledge. Following these changes, the cities of the future must become innovative and competitive to compete, maintain and improve their position in the global arena and respond to the diverse needs of customers. In this regard, when the competition among cities was raised, the urban planning and management system to compete in the international arena and gain this competitive advantage, by changing its attitude from environmental resources to human resources, trying to preserve its limited natural resources and potentials. To base the development of the city on the resources and potentials that are produced and reproduced. Because these resources and forces are human potentials and creative and innovative forces, they seek to upgrade their infrastructure to encourage innovation and include different national, regional, technological, and sector levels. Given that national economic performance is strongly linked to regional economic performance, a regional approach is the most appropriate method to formulate and implement national innovation systems.On the other hand, due to the need for the necessary infrastructure to create innovation in the cities of developing countries, including Iran, and the uncertainty caused by the environmental complexity, the future forecast for the development of innovation has become difficult, so that with the increase of changes and transformations, reliance on planning methods Based on forecasting, it does not meet the needs of the macro management of the country, and the heavy shadow of uncertainties and the emergence of discontinuous and surprising events changed the situation in such a way that predicting the future seems difficult for planners. For this reason, researchers take advantage of the capabilities of the emerging knowledge of futurism and introduce foresight into the planning and forecasting activities, one of which is scenario planning, and its purpose is to expand thinking about the future and widen the range of alternatives. which can be desired, in this regard, the metropolis of Tabriz has advantages such as a dense industrial economic environment as one of the main industrial hubs of the country, the existence of various industrial support institutions, a significant concentration of higher education centers and research centers such as Tabriz University, parks Science and growth centers, strong communication network and ease of communication with other places and markets inside and outside the border have been chosen to plan the development of regional innovation in the metropolis of Tabriz based on the future research approach.

Double-click for synonyms and definitions (all sites) ✕ Copy text Current research is applied in terms of purpose and narrative analysis in terms of nature. To gather the required information, two library and field methods were employed. In the library method, using the environmental scanning method, the theoretical foundations, background of the subject, and the collection of effective dimensions and indicators in the field of regional innovation were investigated, and in the field method, the required information was completed in several stages by using semi-structured questionnaires. The statistical population of the research also includes 32 qualified people in the industry, university, and government sectors, who were selected by purposeful sampling. To analyze the data, Mic Mac, Scenario Wizard and SWAT software were used, along with the inductive method.

In this research, to obtain the key factors affecting regional innovation in the metropolis of Tabriz, the Delphi method and environmental survey have been used, and finally, 71 variables have been collected in 5 dimensions; After identifying the required variables and extracting the key factors, Mic Mac software was used. The results of Mic Mac software show that among the 71 factors affecting regional innovation in the Tabriz metropolis, 13 factors including the appropriate culture of productivity, Laws, and regulations, the existence of a teamwork culture between activists and established industrial units, information and communication technology infrastructure, sufficient funding for university research infrastructure, higher education, patent programs, higher education policy, performance evaluation and reward system, financial support, tax system Special and flexible for research and development, the existence of joint research centers between university and industry and the level of interaction and cooperation between university and industry play a key role and each of them somehow causes or accelerates the innovation process of the region at the level of Tabriz metropolis. In this regard, possible scenarios have been designed for each of the key factors, and these scenarios have been analyzed after scoring by Delphi panel experts using the Scenario Wizard software; The results of the analysis of the scenario wizard software show that 3 strong scenarios, 12 believable scenarios, and 8462 weak scenarios are facing regional innovation in Tabriz metropolis.

The results of the research show that among the three strong, weak, and believable scenarios, the believable scenario was chosen as the basis of analysis because it was intermediate between the other two scenarios and had the necessary favorability. Interest induction was said to be and the results of the inductive method include three categories: gold scenario, alert scenario, and disaster scenario. Finally, the validity of the scenarios was used to determine the level of implementation of the golden scenarios, disasters and warnings. According to the opinions of the experts, reaching the disaster scenario seems very pessimistic due to the critical conditions in all factors, and the warning scenario does not follow the continuation of the existing situation and the lack of change in the conditions and the improvement of regional innovation. For this reason, the opinions of the experts indicate their consensus on the golden scenarios, which are based on favorable situations in both environmental and organizational dimensions. Because by implementing this scenario and focusing on each of the key drivers, we will see an increase in the level of regional innovation over the given horizon.

One of the most effective and attractive points of any city is its entrance, The entrance of the city is a space that enables the connection of the space outside the city limits with its interior, it is a joint that announces the entry into a distinct space and is a sign that expresses the existence of the city. In fact, the entry points of cities are conduits on the ground that provides the possibility of entering the city through motor vehicles. Today, the entrance of contemporary cities, separated from the city structure and the way urban spaces are arranged, has become the dead tissue of the city and has distanced itself from its systematic structure in the old cities. The entrances, which represent and summarize the heart of the cities, are considered the most important inducing elements of the whole subject as the most authentic factor of identity and the most influential subject on the mental perception of those who enter. Mainly, the length of the main entrance axis of the city connects with the main centers of work and activity and the main communication network and plays a role in the spatial organization of all types of urban uses. This area can play a role in guiding the physical expansion of the city and finally in its physical structure as an effective variable. Therefore, the arrangement of the entrance points of the city is of special importance in urban planning. Accordingly, the main goal of this research is to evaluate the physical and functional quality of the entry points of Maragheh city.

The type of applied research and its method is descriptive-analytical. Library, documentary and field studies have been used to collect data. In order to examine the opinions of the experts, a 5-point Likert scale was used (1 means very unfavorable, 2 unfavorable, 3 average, 4 favorable and 5 very favorable) questionnaires with a total of 80 items (40 questionnaires from South-western entrance and 40 questionnaires from the south-eastern entrance of Maragheh city) were randomly completed by specialists and urban experts (professors of the department of geography and urban planning, experts of municipality, governorate and road and urban planning). Cronbach's alpha test will also be used for the reliability of the questionnaire. Sample t-test and step-by-step regression were used to analyze the data.

To check the quality of the entry points of Maragheh city, the physical quality component with the number of 13 items, the functional component with the number of 11 items, the aesthetic component with the number of 9 items and the identity representation component with the number of 10 items were used. Also, the average level of utility of the input source number 3 is considered. Based on the analysis, the highest average of the 13 physical components of the entry point of Maragheh city is related to the sub-criterion of physical separation of opposite routes (outbound and return) with an average of 2.89, and after that, the issue of two or three lane departure routes. And return at the entry points of Maragheh city with an average of 2.84 and in the next rank is easy access to the main routes of the city and important centers with an average of 2.83. Also, the lowest average obtained for the condition of sidewalks (existence of sidewalks, its width and whether they are paved) with an average of 2.25 and the width of crossing lanes (fast and slow) with an average of 2.33. The highest average was obtained among the functional items related to the component of easy access to car services (repair shop, car wash, etc.) with an average of 3.11 and after that, easy access to fuel stations with an average of 3.05, which is more than The average test standard has been placed, and the lowest average obtained is related to the component of the deployment of emergency medical teams with an average of 2.11 and the existence of tourism information centers and the quality of their services with an average of 2.34, which is at an unfavorable level. Among the items of the beauty component, the highest average obtained based on the opinions of experts is related to the criterion of the presence of vegetation at the entrances with an average of 2.73 and the beauty and lack of wear and tear of traffic signs with an average of 2.71 and the lowest average obtained For the criterion of artistic architectural signs and intimate spaces at the entrances, an average of 2.20 was obtained, and the criterion for pavement pavements was obtained with 2.24. The results obtained for the identity representation component show that among the items of the identity representation component, the highest average was obtained based on the experts' opinions regarding the suitability of the quantity and quality of vegetation with the city's climate in the entrances with an average of 2.85 and feeling Directing and inviting into the city with an average of 2.83.

The entry points of Maragheh city in all evaluated components were lower than the average, i.e. number 3. Especially, the southeast entrance was weaker than the southwest entrance. Therefore, managers and urban planners in Maragheh city should pay more attention to the entrance points of the city, especially the southeast entrance. Because the entry points of the cities should express the cultural and economic characteristics of the cities.

The development of the tourism industry and the resulting income has provided the basis for competition between countries. The tourism authorities are making a double effort to attract more international tourists by introducing tourist and geo-tourist places and provide the basis for the distribution of domestic wealth through them. The city of Mahshahr in Khuzestan province is no exception to this and in this context, the structures It has many scientific, ancient and cultural sites that have high potential for tourists. Among the natural attractions of this province, we can mention the wetlands, river banks, bridges and parks, estuaries, etc. as tourist places, which are subject to historical and influential factors They are social, geology and geomorphology. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the criteria and capabilities of tourist places in Mahshahr city. The main problem of the current research is based on a main question, which is the highest value of tourism among the geoclimatic attraction indicators of Mahshahr city? Also, by identifying some geotourism places, investigate their importance in attracting tourism in this city.

This research is of a descriptive-analytical type and to collect data from the method 1. Library, documents and fieldwork were used. 2. In order to determine the exact location of the studied stations, the software (Google Earth) was used. 3. The obtained information was adjusted in the Prolong tables (Prolong method). 4. Experts and tourism professors and students were asked to complete the questionnaire. During the field visits, 4 places in the desired area, including Khormosi (station no. 1), the next station Khor Smiley (station no. 2), the third station of the deserts around Mahshahr (station no. 3), the fourth station of the Salt Lake (station No. 4) was selected.

This part of the research work, first, the tables related to the score criteria in terms of cultural and historical value, appearance and economic beauty along with scientific value and the level of productivity as well as the quality of exploitation were brought and prepared for analysis. After identifying some geotourism capabilities of the studied area, the effective factors in the development of these landforms were analyzed using the Prolong model: First, the tourism criterion of Mahshahr city was evaluated with four criteria of external beauty, scientific, cultural, historical and socio-economic. Each of the criteria was scored and finally the overall value of the area was determined. Also, the average value of productivity was obtained from the sum of the points of the value of quantity and quality of productivity and calculating their average.

The results showed that Namak Lake and Khor Smiley with value (0.525 and 0.531) have the highest average tourism and Mahshahr desert (0.475) has the lowest average tourism. The highest average productivity value is related to Namak Lake with an average of (0.62) and the lowest productivity value with (0.24) is related to Khor Smiley. Also, the salt lake has the highest quality of productivity.

The location of types of urban use and establishing each user, in his real  position  to spatial arrangement of urban landscape and prevent user  interference and uncontrolled expansion of the city, because most of time, paying attention to the number of users and less attention has been paid to its quality in the direction of public welfare so, positive effects lead to increased efficiency and negative effects lead to incompatibility among users. Investigation of   urban land use changes, it is possible for manager and urban planners to predict future changes .In addition to this, citizens can invest with better planning and knowledge by accessing information about land use changes in the urban environment . The Ardabil city which in recent years, fallowing the center of the province has seen a high population growth, so that during the period 1956- 2016 the population of this city has increased 8 times and its area has increased 9.6 times, population growth and immigration from the cities of province and surrounding villages to this city and having  some neighborhoods with rural core in heart of the city has caused  in some cases, The use of urban land leads to disproportionate and unprincipled formation of some urban lands of this city, therefore the purpose of this city research is to investigate spatial justice in the allocation of urban land uses in the 5 municipalities  regions of Ardabil city. In this regard, main question of research are as follows:  Do the studied uses from statistically significant cluster and non- cluster? And what is the compatibility with each other and distribution of uses in the urban areas of Ardabil?

This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive- analytical in nature. The data and information are used documentary. In this research , the  qualitative  evaluation  has been based on the compatibility matrix and determination of spatial distribution with the nearest  neighborhood model(RN) And analysis of the cluster and nom- cluster has been used   Entropy  index , access index, focal statistical index  and mix land use in GIS.

The users that settle in one area should not disturb and prevent the implementation of other activities. based on this, users may have  the following situation in terms of compatibility, fully  compatible, relatively compatible, indifferent, relatively  incompatible, completely incompatible also, in order to determine the degree of  compatibility and incompatibility between two users, one must determine the different  characteristics and needs of each one to perform its activity and then by comparing these characteristics  the agreement and non- agreement should  be determine  in order to determine the degree of compatibility of land uses with neighbor  land uses, first the land uses of map of   Ardabil city was transfer  to GIS environment and the necessary points were given in one of the land uses of the city in comparison with the neighboring land uses, and after the completion  of  land use scoring in the areas of Ardabil, for accurate determination the degree of compatibility in the GIS environment has been determine   by  selecting each of uses and turning them into an independent layer with sum of the points and the area of each use the method of nearest proximity or neighborhood is used to show the dispersion of   phenomena that are distributed with spatial order in a certain range. In this  method,  you get an index called RN (cluster distribution to scattered distribution) which ranges 0 to 2/15 show that in what pattern are the phenomena with desired elements distributed in the study area. 

The  result  of the research with regarding land uses in qualitative  evaluation  using the compatibility matrix in 5 regions of Ardabil show that in most of the land uses studied, incompatibility between them is tangible. By analyzing the current situation to answer the research questions, It   concludes  that  easy   access to facilities and uses that provide balance and sustainable development in this city is not observed in the way of using the uses of Ardabil city.one of reason of this problem can be seen in the increase immigration to Ardabil city after it became province in the 1970. Most of the existing users are not in accordance with the standards and the desired situation in terms of quantity and quality that are actually in unequal condition (lack of fair distribution).

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the field of competition in Central Asia and the Far East became available for Iran and Turkey. The ideological vacuum caused by the collapse of Syria led to the fact that Turkey, with the support of the West, could use the theory of strategic depth to seek ways of influence and alliance with the countries of the region. This country shares historical, cultural and linguistic commonality with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus. In this regard, Turkey was able to promote its ideology by establishing effective institutions in promoting Pan-Turkist ideas. The arena of competition between Iran and Türkiye in the region has become complicated and it seems that the two countries have clashed geopolitical interests in the region. Turkey's ideology is based on secular thinking and Iran's is based on nation-centered thinking. Therefore, the intersection of ideological ideas has also occurred in different fields. In recent years, new campaigns and processes of power are emerging in Central Asia and the Caucasus, which may have created a new structure of power play between regional and extra-regional countries. Regardless of the geopolitical value of this region, it is considered a geopolitical arena for Iran in competition with its other regional competitors, so the loss of strategic depth in this region will have a negative effect on Iran's ability to maneuver in competition with other regional competitors. Therefore, the research seeks to answer the question, "What are the components of the conflict between the geopolitical interests of Iran and Turkey in Central Asia and the Caucasus".

The current research aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the clash of geopolitical interests of Iran and Türkiye and extract the geopolitical components of this issue. The current research method is qualitative and the data analysis strategy is inductive. Therefore, by using the descriptive-analytical approach and collecting data in a documentary-library form and by studying books, articles and also online resources, inferences have been made from the discussion.

Türkiye's foreign policy based on the theory of strategic depth is looking for a way to penetrate Central Asia using the Caucasus route. This is the most important gate for this country in order to develop economic relations and trade relations with the mentioned regions. Linguistic, racial and ethnic similarity, the framework of secular governments, the revival of Turkish nationalism using the concept of pan-Turkism and historical-cultural commonalities are the factors that lead to the use of the geopolitical approach of influence in the countries of the region and the clash of interests with the Islamic Republic of Iran. What was inferred in the research studies is the conflict of interests including political-ideological, political-nationalist, economic and Karabakh war components. The political and ideological problem has been created from the political systems, different attitudes and structures and the specific ideology of the ruler in the two countries. Türkiye has a secular attitude and Iran is nation-oriented. In the political and nationalistic issue, Turkey's emphasis is on ethnicity and pan-Turkism. The roots of this difference can be considered the thoughts of Turkish nationalism. In the economic field, due to sanctions and lack of attention to regional countries, Turkey's financial transactions with these countries are much more than with Iran. Finally, the Karabakh war, which had geopolitical reasons, increased the differences and the field of conflict was clearly defined.

The different and competitive roles of Turkey and Iran cause a clash of geopolitical interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Finally, the pattern of behavior of the two countries has been led to conflict, competition and confrontation. Iran's advantage over Turkey in these areas is Iran's common border with other countries, as opposed to Turkey's border of a few kilometers in Nakhchivan with Azerbaijan, so it can be claimed that Turkey practically does not have a border with this country. Also, Iran's traditional ties with the Transcaucasia peoples are that unlike the Armenian-Turkish relations, there is no feeling of dissatisfaction and insult to the past. As long as the two countries are in a similar situation in terms of the extent of power, they will consider any relations, behavior and developments with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus as vital, and we will witness serious differences between the two countries. This challenge will become more serious with the increasing power of Türkiye and Iran. Because the two countries seek to increase their geopolitical influence in the region by increasing their power. This role will cause the two countries' strategies to overlap, and as a result, the pattern of competition, conflict and confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran will increase.

Flood is one of the natural phenomena and one of the most important and destructive hazards in the world, which is associated with loss of life and property every year in different parts of the world and Iran. Climate change has consequences and effects on global warming, reduction of  Agricultural production, changes in the diversity and vegetation of pastures, changes in groundwater levels, the occurrence of social and economic problems, and so on. The overall goal of this research is to zoning and model areas at risk and  flood risk for changing climates. The prevailing approach of the research is the approach of climate change and its effects on the hydrology of Gorganrood watershed. The key goal of the current research is to model and forecast regional flood risk under climate change conditions using fuzzy analysis algorithm, hierarchical analysis and SWAT model in the watersheds of Golestan province. In fact, it is possible to plan the water resources of the region more precisely and help to calculate the more precise management of the transfer of the region along with other environmental variables, including this research. There have been many research studies on the phenomenon of precipitation in Golestan province and Iran, but none of them have examined this climatic variable with the perspective of climate change together with environmental variables.                                                                                                      

Gorganrood Basin with an area of ​​10197 square kilometers is one of the northeastern basins of the country, a large part of which is located in Golestan province. It is bounded by the Atrak catchment area and the Caspian Sea and Qarahsu catchment area from the west. In the present study, flood zone changes in Gorganrood watershed based on the use of meteorological organization (synoptic) station information with a 30-year statistical period(1989 to 2018), land use, vegetation, topographic moisture index, slope, altitude, land lithology, Distance from river, river density, erosion, soil science, runoff, simulated data The average rainfall of HadCM3 model in LARS-WG under SRA1B scenario is estimated between 2011 and 2045. The evaluation criteria used in this study are defined based on parameters such as ME, RMSE, ASE, MSE. The most important criterion for estimating estimates is the square root of the mean error (RMSE). (ME) is the mean of the errors or the mean difference between the estimated value and the value observed at point I. The SWAT model is an extension under ArcGIS software that simulates the main hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, surface runoff, deep infiltration, groundwater flow and subsurface flows by the simulator model. The type of land use in the region, the type of vegetation in the region, the slope values ​​and the length of the slope in different areas, which is used through the Geographic Information System (GIS). The input spatial variables of the SWAT model in this study include the digital elevation model (DEM) information layers, the soil layer with soil texture information, and the land use layer with its descriptive information. Hydroclimatology and numerical variables of SWAT model include daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature related to stations inside and outside the basin and the average daily runoff of the basin outlet along with their geographical locations. Simulating large and complex areas with different management strategies can be done without spending a lot of time and money.                  

The results for SRA1B scenario therefore it can be concluded that in general for the next period, the  area under study will face a decrease in average flow rate. By analyzing the obtained results, it can be inferred that the phenomenon of climate change will have tangible effects on the studied  area over time and will change the values ​​of temperature and precipitation parameters and will reduce winter precipitation and increase the temperature of the studied area. results of the future discharge simulation show a decrease in runoff for October under the SRA1B scenario. Therefore, according to the results, it can be stated that in general, the SRA1B scenario predicts a decrease in discharge for the next period compared to the observed discharge. The simulation results of the basin output flow and observational flow measured by architect R2 and NS as well as the uncertainty parameters r-factor, pfactor were evaluated and analyzed. The optimal values ​​of R2 and NS coefficients are one and one. One of the goals of the SWAT model is to To reduce impotence. So that most of the observational data are at the level of 95%. In research, NS coefficient greater than 0.5 and p-factor greater than 0.5 have been introduced as satisfactory values. Examining the changes, it is expected that the runoff will decrease with increasing scenarios. This trend has decreased in RCP4.5, although its limit rainfall has also increased, and in RCP8.5 (with more rainfall) the runoff has increased. The reason for this change is that the incidence of precipitation in RCP4.5 was in summer and early autumn, which despite the high evaporation and lack of snowmelt (according to RCP8.5 which in spring coincides with snowmelt) runoff is less than the next  scenario.                             

Flood risk zoning in the Gorganrood watershed, 345 villages with a population of 275,312 people are at high risk of flooding. square, it has a relatively low potential equal to 1425.46 square kilometers, a very high degree of flood risk equal to 884.68 square kilometers, and finally, an area with a low flood potential equal to 623.12 square kilometers from the entire surface of the Gorganrood watershed. It can also be concluded that most of the basin level equal to 89% is at risk of severe flooding. In all the stations, according to the predictions made by the LARS-WG model, the rainfall for the future scenario has increased in some months and decreased in some months compared to the base period . So that in the summer month, the rainfall will decrease and compared to the winter season, the rainfall will increase compared to the base period. The comparison of the monthly rainfall of the base period (2011-2007) with the rainfall simulated by the HadCM3 model for the SRA1B scenario (2011-2045) also shows a significant increase in rainfall in this series of scenarios in the months of September, October and November. It can be seen with a few changes. which can be investigated in terms of the effects of this phenomenon by studying the average percentage of precipitation changes for the SRA1B scenario in 2 periods; 2011-2045, 2045-2065 also shows the changes in rainfall from August in the period, 2011-2045 to 37.5% in November of the same period compared to the base period. The very high increase of precipitation changes in November can also be investigated and pondered for the cause of autumn floods.

Considering the importance of applying crisis management in the planning and management system of cities, the aim of the present research is to identify the drivers influencing the reduction of damages and negative consequences of earthquake in Ardabil city and its future research with emphasis on urban crisis management. In general, it can be said that in terms of geographical and geological conditions, Iran is among the countries that are very vulnerable to natural disasters such as earthquakes, so that 31.7% of its total area is located in areas that are exposed to natural disasters and In the report of accidents related to tectonic hazards, Iran is listed as one of the top ten countries in the world. Ardabil is also facing the risk of earthquake due to the location of several faults around the city and the history of earthquakes. In addition to this, the city of Ardabil has special features such as the centrality of the province and of course the high population, the concentration of most of the administrative and economic centers of the province, the presence of dilapidated and dense structures, etc., places this city among the sensitive centers that are exposed to the risks of Natural hazards, especially earthquakes. Currently, this set of factors has caused the level of vulnerability of Ardabil city and its citizens to natural hazards, especially earthquakes.

Considering that the current research seeks to develop practical knowledge in identifying drivers influencing the reduction of damages and consequences caused by earthquakes, emphasizing the approach of crisis management in Ardabil city and its future research. Therefore, the research method is practical in terms of its purpose, and it is forward-looking in terms of its nature with emphasis on analytical and exploratory approach. In this regard, first by using the documentary method and interviews with managers and elites, the drivers influencing the reduction of damages and consequences caused by the earthquake were identified with an emphasis on the crisis management approach, and then by using the Delphi method (20 elites and managers) and applied The technique of cross-effects analysis in MICMAC software, information analysis has been done with a future research approach.

According to the obtained results, among the main components (drivers) examined, the most influential on other components in order to reduce the damages and consequences caused by the earthquake with emphasis on crisis management in Ardabil city is related to managerial components and the most influential is related to social components. Also, among the sub-components, the most influential are the components of the existence of cohesion and integration in the city's management system to face natural hazards such as earthquakes, the existence of dynamic information systems about various types of hazards, especially earthquakes, in the organizations in charge of crisis management and supporting the culture of innovation and creativity in the direction of urban crisis management in the dimensions of prevention, preparation, exposure and empowerment, and the most effective is also related to the components of citizens' trust in city managers and officials and acceptance of their planning views, the quality of construction materials and buildings, and the quality and appropriate preparation of medical services and relief supplies for exposure. It has been with the earthquake crisis. Also, the influencing drivers do not affect a large number of components, and on the contrary, the components that are affected by a large number of drivers are many. Therefore, it can be said that according to the current situation of the crisis management system in Ardabil city in order to reduce the damage and consequences caused by the earthquake and the lack of key and strategic components that are effective in the development of the system, the future of crisis management in Ardabil city will be unstable.

The investigations carried out show that despite the existence of the Neor, Astara and Hir faults around the city of Ardabil and their history of earthquakes on the one hand, and the widespread existence of problematic tissues (worn out and marginalized) and the weakness of the city's management system in order to upgrade them, on the other hand, is required strategic planning And we are strategic in order to face possible earthquakes and reduce their effects. Also, the results indicate that with the continuation of the current situation, the reduction of vulnerabilities and negative consequences caused by possible future earthquakes will be undesirable.

One of the most important aspects of the foreign policies of the United States is around the Middle East and the West Asian region, and all the strategies and policies announced and implemented by the United States regarding the developments in the region and Afghanistan are of great importance for the situation in the Middle East region in view of the recent developments, i.e. the rise of the Taliban in this country. has it. After two decades of America's presence in Afghanistan, it has attracted many criticisms in America. The slogan "end of endless wars" addressed to Afghanistan and Iraq, in the propaganda campaigns of Obama and Trump, arose from this public demand.

In terms of its nature, the present research is in the category of theoretical researches and in terms of its purpose, it is in the group of basic researches (Waghet et al., 2016: 117) and tries to analyze the role of the United States in the geopolitics of West Asia in the direction of leaving the United States. The data collection method in this research is documentary and library and the data analysis method is descriptive-analytical. And based on the structural approach and the theory of aggressive realism, the reflection of the American rebalancing policy in the withdrawal from Afghanistan is explained in the geopolitics of West Asia.

Now, the American government during the Biden era has decided to end the military presence in Afghanistan, the question is raised, what are the consequences of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan on the regional geopolitics of West Asia? In this regard, using the theoretical framework of balancing Stephen Walt and Descriptive-analytical, we came to the conclusion that the redefining of regional alliances and coalitions with the presence of a new player in the region and the efforts of China and Russia to fill the American power vacuum in Afghanistan will be one of the most important geopolitical consequences of America's withdrawal from Afghanistan, and in this regard, the Islamic Republic of Iran. As one of Afghanistan's neighbors, it has taken a positive and negative approach to the withdrawal of America from Afghanistan, which has had a great impact on the geopolitics of West Asia in the way of accompanying China and Russia.

Merica's withdrawal from Afghanistan is an important component of Washington's return to the rebalancing strategy, a strategy that implies the mobilization of resources in new vital areas. The redistribution of power in the international system has forced America to redefine the source of threat (from terrorism to hegemonic powers) and the center of threat (mainly) from West Asia to East Asia. China's rise over the past three decades has become the main challenge to America's hegemony in Asia-Pacific. In addition, Russia due to its strategic expansionism in Europe and Iran due to its regional and nuclear activism in the Middle East are considered challenges to American hegemony. The main reason and goal that motivated America to withdraw from Afghanistan is to confront its hegemonic position with the increasing influence of China as the highest priority, followed by Russia and finally Iran. The aim of the article was to analyze the withdrawal of America from Afghanistan in the framework of rebalancing in the geopolitics of West Asia.

In order to evaluate the level of urban poverty in different blocks of Rasht city and to cluster poverty in this city (very poor, poor, average, prosperous, very prosperous), 17 indicators of urban poverty using Arc GIS software and hot spot analysis method The space of urban poverty was drawn according to their poverty components. The rate of urban poverty in different blocks of Rasht city was calculated using R statistical software and Prometheus multi-indicator decision-making method, where the weights of the indicators were calculated using the ANP method from the raw data of the statistical blocks of Rasht city obtained in the census of 2015. The findings of the research showed that the hot spots (prosperous and very prosperous) are mostly seen in the central core of the city. On the other hand, cold spots (poor, very, and poor) are mostly observed in the outskirts of the city in the east, west, and southwest of Rasht city. The border between these two regions of moderate spots is a dividing line and the border of urban poverty from poor to wealthy. The comparison of the components shows that educational poverty has followed and expanded from a uniform structure in this city. The noticeable difference in the dimensions of urban poverty is in the social component and the economic component, so that the pattern of distribution of social poverty and economic poverty are inverted, wherever the social poverty is more, the economic poverty is less in them. Also, a significant difference between educational poverty and social poverty can be seen in the northeastern region of Rasht, which is poor and very poor in terms of social poverty, and on the contrary, it is prosperous and very prosperous in terms of education.

In this research, the multidimensional poverty index approach was used to calculate the amount of urban poverty in different blocks based on the components related to economic poverty, social poverty, and educational poverty.

In the city of Rasht, the dimensions of the physical development of the city have more obvious consequences. With its social, economic, industrial, etc. attractions, Rasht city has been known as a population attraction pole in the region, and the demographic changes and the subsequent physical development of the city after land reform in the second Pahlavi period from 1956 until now confirm this. Due to the location of this city in a smooth and fertile plain, this development has generally been associated with the destruction of agricultural lands and the annexation of villages around the city. Considering the rapid changes in population and the physical growth of the city, the need for planned development and urban organization is felt more than before.The effective factors in increasing the number of immigrants to the city of Rasht can be divided into two main natural and human groups from the point of view of geography and urban planning: natural factors such as: special geographical situation and earthquakes that happened in the surrounding cities. Human factors such as: political, economic-social factors, as well as rural repulsive and urban attractive factors. The increase in population has caused the reduction of urban per capita, so that different indicators are completely unbalanced in the city.The spatial expansion of Rasht city has expanded in a spiral and within the void and has integrated many agricultural lands within its service limits. Among other things that have been affected by the population growth are the heavy pollution of the rivers located in the city, as well as the increase in the production of garbage, urban sewage, and the change in the use of agricultural land. The growth of the population and especially the arrival of immigrants in Rasht city has caused a kind of selective economic-social separation in the city. Among other things, we can mention the increase in the level of informal settlements in the outskirts of the city and the increase in the amount of social crimes in these areas.Although the expansion of the city in the form of a star causes the land to remain empty in the distance between its radii, but these lands provide better conditions for the development of green spaces, forestry and parks. In general, at some distances from this design, the big ring roads connect the radii to each other. There is no development around the main roads. The main roads connect to different areas of the city at the intersection with Shuaa. This form is the logical result of the expansion of concentrated cities that begin to expand along the roads outside the city. Star city development allows for a centralized and compact model with a center and pulls public transportation to the city center, so that the entire city and its people have access to the city center, which, among other things, The merits of the plan are counted. Also, the existence of green spaces that have access to rural spaces also provides an environment for walking, cycling, horse racing and sightseeing. The theoretical model of the development of Rasht city, a combination of three models of multi-core construction (with the main cores of the central market, Zarjoub, Motahari Street, Pirsara and Golsar), general construction of the city (establishment of service units based on the geographical conditions of the city) and sectoral construction (Nashi) It is from the creation of radial streets such as Imam Khomeini, Shariati, Lahijan, Saadi, Shahid Ansari, Biston and Lakani Street). Due to the construction of this city, it has a radial-ring construction, which is indicated by the communication lines and accesses.

Based on the research findings and the comparison of social poverty, economic poverty, educational poverty and urban poverty in Rasht, the distribution of poverty in Rasht follows a uniform structure and has expanded. The noticeable difference in the dimensions of urban poverty is in the social component and the economic component, so that the distribution pattern of social poverty and economic poverty are inverted, so that wherever social poverty is more, economic poverty is less in them. A clear example of this is Hafez Abad in the west of the city. It is Rasht. Also, there is a significant difference between educational poverty and social poverty in the northeast region of Rasht, the rural neighborhood of Imam Reza, which is poor and very poor in terms of social poverty, but prosperous and very prosperous in terms of education. In terms of similarity, a significant similarity between the social dimension with the educational dimension and the economic dimension with the multidimensional poverty of Rasht city can be seen in most parts.