نشریه پژوهشهای تغییرات آب و هوایی
پیاپی 17 (بهار 1403)

Today, the adverse effects of climate change and the resulting damages have become an environmental, social and economic problem. Evaluating the resilience of local communities against climate change and its limitations and obstacles is an important step for identifying effective mechanisms and prioritizing management that promotes flexibility and increases adaptation capacity. Due to the importance of this issue, the current research aims to identify the limitations of coping. and resilience against the risks caused by climate change was carried out in Zahedan city. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and its method is descriptive-analytical. The tool for collecting data and information was a researcher-made questionnaire from the study area. The statistical population was the rural households of Zahedan city, which due to the dispersion of villages and their large number, 12 villages (2 villages from each village) were randomly selected as sample villages. According to 832 households of the studied society and using Cochran's formula, the sample size of 263 households was obtained, which was increased to 265 households. In order to analyze the data, ISDM method was used in SPSS software and structural equation method in LISREL software. The results showed that 12.83% of residents have weak perception, 23.02% have moderate perception, 35.85% have strong perception and 28.30% have very strong perception of climate change. Also, the physical factor (factor load 0.941), social factor (factor load 0.922) and economic factor (factor load 0.895) are the most important limitations of resilience against the risks caused by climate change in Zahedan city.

Dust events are one of the most important and challenging environmental and climatic hazards of the whole country and especially of Khuzestan province. The main goal of this research is to reveal the role of changes in vegetation cover and soil moisture in the annual distribution of dust events in Khuzestan province. In this regard, 3 categories of data were used. The data related to station dust codes obtained during the statistical period of 2010-2020 for the synoptic stations of Khuzestan province on an hourly scale. The second set of monthly vegetation data was obtained from the NDVI product (MOD13C3) of the MODIS sensor, and finally, the moisture data of the upper 5 cm layer of the soil was provided from the SMAP sensor on a monthly basis. By analyzing the frequency of dust codes, the monthly frequency of dust events, the concentration and persistence of dust were investigated. By obtaining the spatial average values of the two moisture indices of the upper 5 cm soil layer and the monthly NDVI index, the correlation and relationship between the dust indices and these indices was analyzed. The results showed that based on the average period of 2010-2020, the period of 4 months from May to August is the dust peak period in the province. There are at least 11 days of dust in every month, and the concentration of dust is more than 2800 micrograms per cubic meter in the air, and the duration of the dust event in the province is at least 40 hours. The investigation of the moisture indicators of the upper layer of the soil and vegetation showed that, exactly in the province during the same dust peak period, the soil moisture of the upper layer of the soil reached less than 10% in a large part of the central and southern regions of the province, and at the same time, the vegetation index also In these sectors, it has reached less than 0.18. In addition, in this research, it was observed that the monthly changes in the moisture content of the upper 5 cm layer of the soil with a correlation coefficient of -0.88 have the greatest effect on controlling the dust concentration in Khuzestan province.

The rate of disproportionate temperature increases in the Arctic relative to the global average is called Arctic amplification. The purpose of this study is to investigate these effects in Southwest and West Asia, longitude 20-70 degrees east and latitude 20-60 degrees north. To this end, the reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), version ERA-5, with a horizontal resolution of 0.25 × 0.25 degrees in the period 1959-2021 was used. The periods before and after the rapid warming of the Arctic were considered to be 1959-1985 and 1995-2021, respectively. The analysis of weather temperature variance indicated that the variability of temperature near the earth surface in the Arctic has decreased in the period after the rapid warming of the Arctic in the all seasons, which can be due to the increased volume of ocean water due to the loss of the sea ice extent in this region. The impact of the rapid warming of the Arctic on the weather patterns in Southwest and West Asia was also investigated. The results showed that due to the rapid warming of the Arctic, the meridional range of the lines of equal value in the geopotential height of 500 Hectopascal in the studied area has increased by 4 degrees in the summer season and in other seasons other than winter, an increase in the amplitude of the waves and a change in the location of the waves to higher heights were observed. It was also observed that the jet stream speed in the period after the rapid warming of the Arctic has decreased the most in the summer season, except for the autumn season. It has almost decreased in the other seasons. These changes can result in an increased frequency of extreme weather events, especially in the summer season.

The polar vortex and Azores subtropical high pressure is considered the most obvious and permanent feature of the hemispheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, and the increase or decrease of their intensity index and expansion index at the level of 500hPa  pressure level is the main determinant of dry and wet periods in mid-latitudes and Iran. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explain the changes of these two systems in winter and summer. The maps and graphs of the monthly average of the polar vortex and the high pressure subtropical in Iran's atmosphere have shown significant changes in these two factors. The results showed that the surface and intensity index of the polar vortex had a downward trend and the representative of this system has regressed by about 2 degrees towards higher latitudes. The high-pressure indicators near the Azure tropics have been increasing in the summer season; So that in the last decade of studies, about 97 percent of the country's area has been under the control of this system, and the system's representative has progressed from the latitude of 36.15 degrees in the first decade to the latitude of 38.64 degrees in the last decade.

The Scientometrics method helps researchers identify and examine the different views of researchers and gaps in studies in a specific field of knowledge. The main goal of this research is to comprehensively understand the studies conducted in the field of "climate changes and tourism" in four main parts (ontological, why, challenges and strategies) through the review of related scientific documents in the world and Iran. The research method is qualitative and a type of meta-study is called Meta-synthesis. A Meta-synthesis is a type of qualitative study. In-depth interpretation and analysis of the studies done is important for a deeper understanding of the issues. In this research, in order to achieve the main goal of the research, the seven-step model of Sandelowski and Baros was used. The library method was used to collect data. In order to carry out the research, after designing the research questions, a systematic search based on relevant keywords has been conducted from Scopus, Web of Science, and Elsevier databases. VOSviewer software has been used to understand the development and evolution of the field and the most important concepts in climate change studies and the tourism industry. Cluster analysis and synonym configuration methods have been used in SciMAT software to understand the structure of climate change research in the tourism industry. The research results show that the research pattern in four main clusters, Assessment, impacts, vulnerability, compatibility studies and mitigation are categorized. In the last decade, studies have gone towards climate change adaptation research and climate change reduction strategies and the simultaneous investigation of the effects of COVID-19 and climate change on the tourism industry.

Sustainable management of wetland ecosystems requires knowledge of the process of ecological, hydrological, economic and social changes of the wetland against environmental and human threats. In this research, the trend of changes and homogeneities of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation was investigated using homogeneity tests for the years 1984-2020 and their interaction with the amount of ecosystem services, threats and vulnerability of Hamoun International Wetland was evaluated; and management strategies were presented to reduce vulnerability. The homogeneity tests result showed that the climate has become dryer during 1984-2020 in Sistan region, so that the minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 1.8°C and 0.95°C respectively, while precipitation has decreased by 27 mm (47%) over the years 1999 to 2020. which has impacted greatly ecosystem services in the Sistan region. Results of vulnerability assessment of the Hamoun wetlands according to Stratford et al., 2011 method, showed that climate change and drought, provision of wetland water rights, construction of dams and diversion of the water path in the upstream basin of the wetland, livestock and car traffic in the wetland are the most important threats to the wetlands, which severely affect biodiversity services. , wildlife habitat, water conservation, fishing and animal husbandry, research, international value and the wetland's biosphere have suffered a crisis and damage. Diplomatic effort to secure the water right of the wetland is the most important management solution to reduce the vulnerability of the wetland.