نشریه جمعیت
پیاپی 80 (تابستان 1391)

The goal of this research is to analyze empirical relationships between demographic variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Iran over the period of 2006-1966. For this purpose, as an econometric model, this paper provides an examination of the impact of dependency ratio (as demographic variables), and other variables on GDP. On the other hand, the population and dependency ratio were divided into different age groups in order to be considered separately. The results show that, from among different selected age groups, the age group 15 to 64 has the positive effects on GDP, but age groups younger than 15 years and older than 65 has a negative effect on GDP.

The aim of this paper is to examine the timing of the transition to aging in the context of fertility transition and its effects and consequences in 47 Muslim majority countries. Data are taken from the United Nations Population Division database. Results indicate that Muslim majority countries, except Kuwait, have experienced different fertility levels but similar trends during the period 2010-1990. According to this study, population aging will be the dominant demographic phenomenon in most Muslim majority countries in the mid 21th century. However, the results show differences in the timing of transition to aging among these countries. Findings strongly suggest that aging is largely influenced by the severity of fertility decline during the fertility transition period. Since, from among those Muslim majority countries which experienced fertility at or below replacement level, there is no comprehensive population policy to deal with the consequences of low fertility and population aging in the future, and due to the fact that policy making for the elderly demands time, it seems that adopting a comprehensive population policy in these countries to regulate the issues of the elderly population in the near future is necessary.

The aim of this paper is to estimate active life expectancy index for Iranian males and to find urban-rural variations in 2006 by using indirect demographic methods. Data are mostly taken from the census 2006 conducted by Statistical Center of Iran and also new abridged life tables for 2006 which carried out as research project by Population and Research Center in Asia and the Pacific. Our results showed that male active life expectancy index in Urban and Rural areas of Iran were different and showed remarkable changes. Active life expectancy rate is in its highest level in age 10 and eliminates by coming of age and reaches to lowest level in the last age group. Male Active life expectancy index in rural was rather different than urban areas and the whole.It implied that we are tending to ongoing convergence at the national level. We can see positive sings of equivalence in this regards. This situation needs for making new laws and regulations in social security and welfare sections which will important for governmental policymakers.

Ethnic difference in fertility is one of the widely discussed issues in this field. There are different theories about the role of ethnic differences on fertility including; social characteristics theory, subculture characteristic theory and minority group status theory. Iran is a multiethnic country and various ethnicities have different demographic behaviors. Therefore, Iran is an appropriate setting for considering ethnicity and fertility. Despite the importance of ethnicity and fertility in demographic literature and the appropriate situation of Iran for such studies, scarce researches have been conducted in this subject until now. Moreover, there are many weaknesses in these researches. Most of these studies are limited to few ethnicities and these studies have not considered all ethnicities at one study. These researches were based on social characteristics theory mainly, even the majority of them have not even completely cover this theory and just limited to a few contextual variables. Another weakness is lack of attention on proximate determinants of fertility and therefore they are unable to show the process or mechanism of influence of ethnicity on fertility. Another issue is that, despite the fact that men have influential role in life decisions; these researches mainly have ignored men and their role on fertility.

Increasing urban population, especially in developing countries, has made these cities to face with significant environmental challenges. Issues such as air pollution, lack of vitality, and water, soil and environment pollution and etc. are among ecological system. Demographic factors are essential in sustainability of this system which needs to be considered in socio-economic planning. From theoretical perspective, this paper is based on two basic rules. 1. The population of cities is consistently increasing due to natural growth, migration and development of cities and rural-urban merge and creation of mini-cities and engaged cities. 2. Five demographic factors are influential in sustainability of this system including population, environment, technology, institution and psycho-social condition. Population is one of the most important factors from among them.This study examines factors influencing population growth in Rasht city and its consequences on the ecology of city over the period (1956-2006). This is a descriptiveanalytic study. In this study, firstly, demographic factors (fertility, mortality and migration) have been studied. Using population and housing censuses during the period 1385- 1335, main factors responsible for increasing the population of the city were identified and finally to identify the ecological consequences of the increasing population in the city, urban ecological criteria and indicators were analyzed. According to the findings, it became clear that the three components of natural population growth, migration and integration of rural areas are of the most important factors responsible for population increase in Rasht during the specified period. Due to these factors, 447,845 people has been added to the urban population over this period, of which 258,110 people were due to natural population growth, 159,732 people were due to migration, and 30,003 people were due to integration of villages into urban services. Finally, it was found that consequences of such population growth has been, reduction of per capita urban population, severe pollution of the rivers in the city, increased waste production, urban sewage, and change of application of agricultural land.

Political demography is a field of demography which has been rarely considered by demographers as a multi-disciplinary research area. Political demography addresses the interaction between demography and policy. Population can be used as a political tool at local, national and international levels. Therefore, governments attempt to adopt programs in order to control demographic factors. After a conceptual definition of political demography, the author has notified related theoretical models and considers selected inevitable methodological challenges of this field. The author emphasizes that limited number of researchers focus on interactions between policy and population, he is delighted to provide an appropriate list of publication. Thereafter, he has tried to address some important questions of political demography briefly. The key questions which are addressed in the paper are as follows: Does population size matter? Does age structure matter? Does population composition matter? and Do demographic interactions between immigration and fertility matter?