amir jafarzadeh

This research aims to study the probable scenarios on the natural gas transmission through the pipeline from the Caspian basin to the western region and Europe. We first project the future of world natural gas demand, supply، and available sources in the Caspian basin. In the second stage، we make an economic evaluation of the current projects and most probable scenarios in the next 30 years. In the third step، we calculate each playerchr('39')s bargaining power by using the Shapely value in probable scenarios. The results indicate that transfer of natural gas by pipeline through Iran (southern corridor) is more economical than the trans-Caspian project (TCP). The results of the cooperative game theory indicate that the geographical situation of the countries plays an essential role in their bargaining power in the geopolitics of energy. Iranchr('39')s contribution to the gas export to Europe، especially the establishment of the Pars pipeline project، would promote the countrychr('39')s bargaining power and, consequently، its national power. Including a political risk factor in the calculations related to the net present value(NPV) and investigating the situation in Kazakhstan adjoining are innovative aspects of the research.

European countries need to diversify their natural gas imports to reduce their dependency on Russia. One of the best options for exporting natural gas to European countries is to export gas through the Southern Corridor, in which Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iraq could potentially be major participants. All four countries need Turkey to export natural gas; there is no alternative way in this regard. In the present paper, the bargaining power of different countries and possible alliances for natural gas exports to Europe are studied, based on the cooperative game theory approach, especifically Shapley Value solution. Accordingly, we identify various possible scenarios as possible options. Our approach helps us know different countries' bargaining power for exporting natural gas to Europe, which is a useful approach in this field.