فصلنامه پژوهش های سیاستگذاری و برنامه ریزی انرژی
سال هفتم شماره 2 (تابستان 1400)

This research aims to study the probable scenarios on the natural gas transmission through the pipeline from the Caspian basin to the western region and Europe. We first project the future of world natural gas demand, supply، and available sources in the Caspian basin. In the second stage، we make an economic evaluation of the current projects and most probable scenarios in the next 30 years. In the third step، we calculate each playerchr('39')s bargaining power by using the Shapely value in probable scenarios. The results indicate that transfer of natural gas by pipeline through Iran (southern corridor) is more economical than the trans-Caspian project (TCP). The results of the cooperative game theory indicate that the geographical situation of the countries plays an essential role in their bargaining power in the geopolitics of energy. Iranchr('39')s contribution to the gas export to Europe، especially the establishment of the Pars pipeline project، would promote the countrychr('39')s bargaining power and, consequently، its national power. Including a political risk factor in the calculations related to the net present value(NPV) and investigating the situation in Kazakhstan adjoining are innovative aspects of the research.

As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, Iran pledged to decrease 4 % of its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2020 to 2030. About 30% of total emissions in Iran belongs to electricity supply network while energy consumption in other sectors (transport, household, and industry) have a lower share in CO2 emission. The main concern here is finding the optimal model of power plants in the electricity supply system that should be deployed to meet Iran’s mentioned respective targets and considering simultaneously interests of consumers and producers in its energy system. So, in this article we developed a non-linear mathematical programming model for Iran’s electricity system to address this concern with changing attitude modeling from a social planner perspective to a private investor perspective. Later, this model has been run for years between 2017-2030. Results show that a 10-20% diffusion of renewable energy, imposing Carbon tax (25 USD per tonneCO2) and converting gas turbine power plants to gas combined cycle technology with 5% annual rate can satisfy Iran’s emissions pledge under the Paris Climate Agreement. Therefore, by imposing a carbon tax, supporting renewable power plants (reducing capital cost and providing a reasonable rate of guaranteed purchase of electricity), and considering on converting gas turbine power plants to gas combined cycle technology we can hope for the operational implementation of the Paris Agreement in the desired period.

Recently, investment in solar energy has increased in various countries, so increasing the complexity, dynamism of the conditions governing economic and financial activities, and consequently increasing the risk of investment decision-making, requires more advanced analytical methods. Traditional methods are static and do not take into account dynamics and future changes, while the value of an investment plan depends on a factor in addition to the current net present value. In response to the new needs, the analysis of real option, which takes into account the investor authority in strategic decisions and the creation of new opportunities in the future in analysis, has become widespread and widely used. In this paper, economic evaluation using real option and binomial tree technique is considered in the construction of a solar power plant in Iran, so that four types of options, abandonment authority, project development, outsourcing and joint investment with a foreign company, was examined in this regard. Relevant calculations were performed in excel software. The results showed that the investor will face 3 different strategic scenarios based on the situation in the next 5 years.

Today, increasing energy consumption from one hand causes economic growth and on the other hand, increases co2 emissions, which is the main cause of global warming, has become one of the main challenges in managing different countries in the world, so that countries impose rules and restrictions for reducing co2 emissions that will slow down the economic growth. Natural gas is a relatively clean, abundant and cheap energy source, with which not only energy consumption can be met, but also energy consumption structure can be optimized. In this study, the effect of natural gas consumption on greenhouse gas emissions in selected countries by using panel data has been investigated. The results of this study show that in countries with high energy consumption, natural gas consumption has negative effect on co2 emissions, but in countries with low energy consumption, natural gas consumption has no negative effect on co2 emissions, but per capita gross domestic product has a positive effect on co2 emissions.

The growth of energy consumption is a major problem in both developing and developed countries, which is needed its special solution. Energy demand side management is one of the solutions, which is used by developing countries in the past few decades. This policy helps consumers with consumption management by using intensive and price-based approaches. Reports by the electricity distribution companies show that residential buildings are responsible for a great proportion of energy consumption among different consumption sections. This fact, therefore, reveals the importance of optimization and modification of consumption patterns in residential buildings. The use of new technologies and smart buildings are among solutions that can be applied in the residential section for consumption management. In this study, a new model is developed according to the theoretical foundations in demand side management and smart buildings. Electrical cost reduction, peak load reduction, and user comfort improvement are the main goals of the model. Therefore, a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is designed. One of the contributions of this research is the simultaneous use of price- and intensive-based programs. In this regard, time of use (TOU) and emergency demand response program (EDRP) are applied. The results showed that by applying the proposed model, 30% of peak electric load and approximately 20% of consumer costs are reduced.

In recent years, due to the lack of large and suitable spaces for the construction of a new fuel station, for the first time in the country, the first phase of the linear fueling station a the Isfahan metropolis has been implemented. Before entering the implementation of the second phase of the project and also the extension of the stations to other metropolises of country, the evaluation of linear fueling stations especially in terms of landuse quality (matrices of compatibility, desirability, capacity and dependence) is very important. In this regard, in this research library and field methods have been used to collect data. In addition, a combination of fuzzy logic and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been used to analyze the status of linear fueling stations. The results show that in general, 34% of all linear gas stations in Isfahan are in a relatively unsuitable location and 20% of them are in average condition in terms of qualitative evaluation of the landuse. The general suggestions of this research are to pay attention to providing the necessary infrastructure for the construction of linear gas stations, eliminating the shortcomings of existing linear stations and conducting integrated transportation and land use studies before the implementation of the second phase of the project.