فهرست مطالب marzieh dindar rostami

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting the structural and cyclical budget balance using Quartery data during the period of 1996-2017. Fristly, the factors affecting the cyclical and structural budget balance are identified using Sissokoand Dibooglu (2006) and inspired by Chalk (2002). Then, using the EU methodology, we will focus on the cyclical and structural components of the budget. Finally, by using SVAR Approach. The effect of effective shocks; such as   Taxes, government expenditures,GDP per capita, oil prices, inflation and terms of trade; on cyclical and structural budget deficits is investigated. According to research results, the oil prices shoks and current government expenditures are two variables that increase the adoption of discretionary decisions by governments and, consequently, the growth of structural budget deficits and the reduction of the power of influence of automatic stabilizers in the Iranian economy. And the shocks such as GDP per capita growth, inflation, investment government expenditure, and terms of trade have led to a reduction in structural deficit and increasing in the power of influence of automatic stabilizers in Iran.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the actual, cyclical and structural budget balance in OPEC countries during the period 1980-2015. For this purpose, by separating the budget balance into two cyclical and structural variables, using the Panel Structural Vector Auto Regression approach, which it presented in Pedroni (2013), as well as separation structural shocks into two common and idiosyncratic shocks among OPEC countries, the effect of fiscal policy is examine. Regarding the results, the effect of expenditures fiscal policy on the actual and structural budget has been positive and the effect of tax policy has been negative in theory. Based on the results, the need to pay attention to automatic stabilization and the use of monetary policy to deal with economic problems, rather than applying discretionary fiscal policy, are advisable.

The present study was aimed to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policies in selected OPEC countries during 1980-2015. In this regard, the heterogeneous dynamic reaction to structural shock was examined using Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) technique. Based on the findings, the effect of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policy was positive in short-run but ineffective in long-run. In addition, the oil price shocks caused an increase in inflation and government expenditure and a decrease in the economic growth in selected OPEC countries according to the Resource Curse phenomenon. Moreover, as variance decomposition showed, the government expenditure and economic growth have the most effect on discretionary policy changes. The effect of discretionary fiscal policy on economic growth in selected OPEC countries was negative, contrary to the Keynesian theory and the results of some other studies. Because discretionary fiscal policies play a major role in decisions of the countries mentioned above, the results also showed that a limitation in the government authority in OPEC countries would come into conflict with the decrease in economic growth and production fluctuation.

The purpose of this study is to investigate asymmetric effects of house prices shocks on urban household consumption in Iran during the period of 1385-1393. For this purpose, by estimating the two models, effects of house price shocks on household consumption have been studied in urban households and investigating asymmetric effects with using the approach of Panel Vector Auto Regression (Panel VAR). The results of this study suggest that the effect of changes in house price on household's consumption of urban is negative and significant in provinces of Iran during the period under study. Then, the effects of asymmetric shocks of house price have shown that the positive shocks have negative and significant effect and negative shocks have positive and significant effect on household consumption. Orthogonalized Impulse response functions (OIRF) suggest that the positive impact of price shocks on consumption is more effective than negative price shocks. Generally, urban households will change saving behavior in the facing the potential gains and losses of capital. The results indicate that the saving tendency and uncertainty has been increased in urban households during this period.
Panel VAR is composed of traditional VAR, which endogenously defines all the variables in the pattern and panel data method, which imports unobservable factors in the pattern.
In this study, after examining the stationary of the pattern variables and determining the optimal lag, the stability is checked in the desired pattern. The results of the table and the study of statistics values show that the null hypothesis based on the lack of stationary of variables like consumption, housing price, positive and negative changes in housing price and urban household's income are rejected in all three tests, in the sense that all variables in the model are static.
In the case of the lag order of the tests, the minimum value in MBIC, MAIC, and MQIC standards is the first lag order. In both studied patterns, eigenvalues are inside the unit circle which represents the stability of the pattern.
In this study, the coefficients are estimated using panel vector autoregressive pattern and based on GMM method. Some New software called Love (2015) and Abrigo and STATA12 have been used to estimate the coefficients.
The effect of housing price shock on urban household's consumption, housing price, urban inflation and urban household's income are shown in diagram 1. As can be seen, the positive housing price shock as large as one standard deviation will cause negative consumption response and the negative response will reach its peak in the second year, then it will be gradually converged to its initial level. According to the theory, a demand shock in housing price will lead to increase in housing price through an initial increase in mortgage rates. Therefore, the increase in real prices of estate caused increased household wealth and thereby increased demand for the goods. The increased household consumption expenditure will lead to inflationary pressure.
According to the results of the analysis in this study, the proposed theory has been violated, which could be due to various factors, including uncertainty in housing price changes, assuming it as a temporary matter by households, increased precautionary savings and retirement savings in order to deal with disability and disease and increased liquidity constraints in the collateral role and increased housing price.
diagram 1: Orthogonalized Impulse Response Function: The effect of housing price shock on models variables.
The effects of impulse response functions of positive price shock (hpp) on consumption are a little more than negative price shock (hpn). After positive housing price shock, urban household's consumption will be decreased in provinces and it will reach its lowest value in the first period. Then the behavior will be fluctuating and finally, it will be converged to its first route after 10 periods. In other words, by increasing the housing price, homeowners feel getting richer because of increased possible benefits of their wealth, and they will increase their consumption. Tenants and those who want to buy a house, feel getting poorer and therefore consumption reduction and increased savings will occur. According to diagram 2, the effect of reducing consumption will be higher than the effect of increasing consumption; therefore, the positive housing price shock will decrease the consumption.
diagram 2: Orthogonalized Impulse Response Function: The asymmetric effect of housing price shock
This study aimed to investigate the asymmetric effects of housing prices on urban household's consumption in provinces of Iran during 1393-1385. For this purpose, the effects of housing price shock on urban household's consumption are studied using two patterns then its asymmetric effects are examined using Panel vector autoregressive approach (Panel VAR).
According to the literature about the discussed issue, theoretically, the effect of increased housing price on total consumption expenditure looks ambiguous. In most studies, this relationship has been positive. The results of the study obtained from the estimation of the pattern and examination of orthogonalized Impulse response function show that the effect of housing price changes on urban household's consumption during the studied period is negative and significant in the provinces of Iran. In addition, the asymmetric effects of housing price shock have a negative and significant effect on positive housing price shock and also have a positive effect on negative housing price shock. Orthogonalized Impulse response function indicates that the effect of positive price shock on consumption is more effective and higher than negative price shock. Therefore, the asymmetric effect of housing shock on urban household's consumption has been approved.

This paper studies the factors influencing the wage gap of the industries with more than 10 employees، among provinces of Iran، using the new economic geography model. For this purpose، having used the panel data method as well as 2175 observations (435 inter-province gaps during 2003-2007)، spatial structure of wages in Iran has been studied. The important indication of the study is that the new economic geography provides a good description of the spatial structure of wages in the provinces of Iran. Since the size of market and inverse distance-weighted have positive relationship with wages while prices of non-trade goods have negative effects on the spatial structure of wages، thus، the wage structure is less affected by labor force features or labor productivity than by conditions governing the labor market. The study suggests further attention to the agglomeration and impact of the wages in the economic development programs. It is also necessary to distinguish the provinces with wage disparity as well as the factors affecting disparities، for wise implementation of proper economic policies in order to balance the distribution of income.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the manufacturing industry wage among selected developing countries based on new economic geography theory. More specifically, we use a panel data model to study the spatial structure of wages in 136 countries for the period 1998-2007. The results indicate that this theory provides a good description of the spatial structure of wages. We find that the market size and the distance-weighted have positive relationships with wage. However, the price of non-tradable goods has a negative effect on the spatial structure of wages. The result shows that the conditions governing the labor market is more important in explaining wage inequalities than the characteristics of labor or labor productivity.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting the wage gap between Iran and selected developing countries using a new economic geography models. A panel data approach is employed using the data for 16 selected developing countries during the period 1998-2007. The sample countries are members of WTO. Based on the results obtained in this study, the new economic geography model provides a suitable explanation for the spatial structure of wage in Iran. More specifically, market size and distance-weighted have a positive relationship with wages while prices of non-trade goods have a negative effect on spatial structure of wage. Therefore, in determining wage levels rather than the characteristics of labor or labor productivity and the conditions governing the labor market are effective. Based on the findings of this paper, it is expected to pay special attention to benefit from the agglomeration and its effects on wages in the economic development programs in selected developing countries.