mohammad qezelbash

This study aimed to investigate the performance of diverse stock market indices on the Tehran Stock Exchange during two distinct phases: a boom from September 2022 to December 2022 and a recession from December 2022 to September 2022 in the foreign exchange market. The results of this study diverged from the anticipated outcomes and show that by using dynamic conditional beta and conditional Treynor ratio during the period of exchange rate boom, export-oriented companies such as metals and chemicals in the Tehran Stock Exchange did not perform better than non-export-oriented companies such as Insurance and medicine. While it is always believed that export-oriented firms outperform the others when the Rial depreciates.

During the last decade, the use of Islamic financial bonds in the form of issuing new bonds, converting government's non-debt debts into financial bonds, the clearing of government bond debts from the non-banking sector to the banking network and from the banking network to the central bank has increased. Based on this, the present research analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of financing the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran in two ways, the traditional approach (non-securities) and the issuance of Islamic securities through the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of DSGE on the main economic variables including inflation, investment , employment and economic growth. For this purpose, based on past experimental studies and seasonal data of Iran's economy during the period (1990:1 – 2021:4), simulation has been done and instantaneous reaction functions of macroeconomic variables to debt shocks. Conventional and financial bonds of the government to the central bank, banking network and the non-banking sector should be reviewed. The obtained results show; Financing the government by using debt securities will generally lead to investment growth, prevent the increase in inflation compared to the method of financing through non-debt debt, and create economic growth. Also, the effects of this on employment are assessed as positive in government bond debts to the banking network and to the central bank, and negative in government bond debts to the non-banking sector.

The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the Iranian currency exchange market by analyzing the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between the Iranian currency exchange rate and the free market exchange rate of the US dollar in Iran. This analysis was conducted for both the same day and with a one-day lag, spanning from June 20 to October 30, 2022. The results of the study indicate that the DCC for concurrent days (denoted as dcc0) stood at 48%. Meanwhile, the DCC for the Iranian currency exchange rate with a one-day delay compared to the free market US dollar exchange rate in Iran (referred to as dcc+1) was 17%, and the DCC for the free market US dollar exchange rate with a one-day lag behind the Iranian currency exchange rate (referred to as dcc-1) was 35%.

Making long-term investments in the oil and gas industry to maintain the current production levels and increase its capacity is one of the ways to increase economic resilience in the country's upstream documents, including the resistance economy's general policies. In recent years, there have been intense sanctions on the country, especially in the energy field. The importance of proper use of China's allocated credit lines to finance these projects is revealed due to the high need for investment in oil and gas industry projects and the impossibility of covering the investment needs of this industry from domestic sources, and the challenge in effective communication with international monetary and financial institutions. Anyway, the conducted studies indicate serious challenges in using the capacity of these credit lines. For this purpose, this research tries to investigate these challenges from many aspects. After studying the background of the research and reviewing various sources, this article conducted targeted interviews with financing experts. Also, the challenges of using credit lines were extracted and classified into four categories: financial and economic, executive and operational, structural and institutional, and juridical and legal, utilizing the method of thematic analysis and focus group. The extracted challenges were exposed to experts to validate the findings. Finally, the formation of the focus group presented the corrective solutions for the use of credit lines to finance oil and gas industry projects.

In recent years, cryptocurrency has attracted more attention and is a new option in the economy and the financial sector. The purpose of this study is to the volatility and “herd behavior” of the cryptocurrency, gold, and stock markets in the US. This research is aimed at investor “herd behavior” and how it correlates with the volatility of three assets: the Standard & Poor's 500 indexes, Bitcoin, and gold. Also, A new formula by applying the conditional standard deviation (risk), maximum return, minimum return, and average return to quantify the herding bias is designed in this research. In this study, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (GARCH) and the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) were both employed. Research results show that Bitcoin is 3.3 times as volatile as the S&P 500 and 4.6 times as volatile as gold. The results of this novel equation also show that the herding bias of Bitcoin is more than 26 times higher than the global average and 10 times higher than the S&P 500. Also, it’s important to consider the energy consumption and sustainability of investments when evaluating their long-term viability and risk. In some cases, investments in companies with strong sustainability practices and low carbon footprints may be seen as lower risk. Since Bitcoin relies on a network of computers to validate transactions based on proof of work and it is an energy consumption consensus mechanism, investment in Bitcoin may be seen as a higher risk.

This study examines the dynamics of the Iranian foreign exchange market and its impact on the exchange rate used by traders, and not the official rate in Iran. The study aims to extend Fama's theory of market efficiency and proposes a new model to define the opposite point called "Historical bias". The study applied the ARIMA and Markov switching models and dynamic conditional correlation to measure the speed of information circulation and to investigate the origin of the Iranian foreign exchange market's impact on the trader rate of the Dollar market. The study analyzed the convergence of the Iranian foreign exchange market based on different rates, the exchange rate used by traders, and the official rate and its effect on developing CBDC in Iran. The results of this study show that based on Fama's theory of market efficiency the foreign exchange market in Iran could have a 15% history-oriented bias, which is significant and would be an important problem for the launching of CBDC in Iran.

The exchange rate is recognized as one of the main variables in the economies of less developed countries,which is a key relative price in the economy and its changes are affected not only trade flows and balance of payments,but also the structure and The level of production,consumption, employment and resource allocation.Over‏the past four decades, the Iranian economy has experienced four currency crises,the last of which was the currency crisis in 2018.Examining the causes and factors of the currency crisis shows that domestic factors such as macroeconomic policies,the economic structure of the country and the degree of independence of the central bank, as well as external factors such as the international economic environment and various sanctions and threats can lead to currency crises.The present study,with the pathology of foreign exchange market management mechanisms,the role of the central‏bank in dealing with foreign exchange crises has‏been discussed.In this research,by using55research sources by interviewing the country's foreign exchange experts and studying books,articles,reports related to the harms to foreign exchange market management mechanisms was extracted,coded and have been classified to5themes and analyzed using the content analysis method.This research shows;problems and damages caused by the structure of the foreign exchange market,lack or weakness of some essential active strategies in foreign exchange market management,lack of some tools or weaknesses in the tools used in the Iranian foreign exchange system and lack of the independence and passivity of foreign exchange policymakers towards dynamic foreign exchange management have led to the inefficiency of foreign exchange market management policies.

This paper introduces an innovative model of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), offering a novel perspective on its design and functionalities. It presents an innovative approach to digital currency design, introducing "Export Crypto" as a novel cryptocurrency that diverges from conventional Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) by anchoring its value not to fiat currencies but to intrinsic economic factors and global trade dynamics. In contrast to traditional CBDCs, our model relies on the principles of purchasing power parity (PPP) to establish a more robust and transparent link between the cryptocurrency's value and real economic activities. The core parameters for assessing the value of Export Crypto revolve around equitable trade balances among nations and their respective export volumes. This approach fundamentally deviates from the conventional practice of pegging digital currencies to a country's fiat currency. Our research findings underscore that a cryptocurrency rooted in economic fundamentals can offer a more effective tool for managing the money supply, particularly in regions where traditional CBDCs may not be optimally suited. Furthermore, Export Crypto's design has the potential to foster fair-trade practices and encourage sustainable economic growth by aligning its worth with a nation's economic prowess and its trade interactions on the global stage. This groundbreaking approach to central bank digital currency opens new avenues for enhancing economic stability and promoting equitable international trade relationships.

In this study, based on the monetary behavior theory, which considers the mean and standard deviation of GDP per capita besides the inflation difference between two countries, we first present a model for determining the fair value of the Russian ruble in the long run from 1999 to 2021 based on macroeconomic indicators including inflation, and GDP per capita. And then we modeled the effect of widespread Russian economic sanctions on the value of the Russian ruble during the turbulent days of February 9 to April 9. Our research results show that there is not much difference between market value and fair value in the long run. Also, by observing the behavior of the ruble during the turbulent days of February 25, 2022, to April 26, 2022, and by entering the conditional risk factor and weighted average of the ruble, the USD to ruble equality between 76.23 and 91.6 was evaluated

Sukuk is considered as one of the tools and initiatives to mobilize monetary resources in the country's banking network after the Islamic Revolution. Specific goals in the design of sukuk have been considered by the legislator and money market policymaker, but what the regulator wanted in relation to the operation of this instrument has not been fully achieved. In this study, we seek to multilateral study of the challenges regarding the role of the competitive Sukuk market in mobilize the resources of the banking system. In this article, after studying previous researches and reviewing various sources, targeted interviews were conducted with experts in the field of financing and the challenges of sukuk were extracted using the content analysis method. These challenges were categorized into six categories of operational, legal, cultural, competitive and economic challenges at the micro and macro levels. In order to validate the findings, the extracted challenges were presented to the experts. The findings showed; The need for a guarantor in the process of Sukuk issuing, the length of the process of issuing bonds and the time of access to resources, the disagreement between the two institutions supervising the issuance of bank Sukuk and the high cost of issuing bonds are the most important challenges in using this tool to mobilize banking network resources. Finally, with forming a focal group of market improvement and strengthening strategies, the competitive Sukuk market were presented as a tool to mobilize the resources of the banking system. In a competitive sukuk market, there are components such as modifying the role of the guarantor, credit rating of securities and increasing the number and variety of issued sukuk that can improve the performance of this tool.