poisson regression

In this research, the fertility transition has been analyzed for 25 years involving multi-variables. The 25 years from 1987 to 2011 are divided into five periods, and the birth history of women has been rebuilt using the Luther method for women aged 15 to 64 years old in two percent raw data of censuses conducted in the years 2006 and 2011. To calculate the fertility rate based on age and other covariates, we have used Poisson Regression andSchoumaker's proposed method. Results show that employment and educational attainment had the most significant effect on reducing the age-specific fertility rates and, in turn, total fertility rate. Employed and highly educated women in 2002-2006 had total fertility rates equal to 1.6 and 1.5, and from 2007 through 2011, the total fertility rate reached 1.43 and 1.45, respectively. In 2006, among Employed and highly educated women, age groups of 25-30 years and 25-34 years had taken over as the peak fertility age groups, respectively. Based on the 2011 census, those peak rates tilted to the age group of 25-39 and 30-39 years, respectively. Migration had a marginal but significant effect on the dependent variable.

Road accidents are one of the most important causes of death in the world,especially in Iran. . Annually, many people in the world are killed and injuredas a result of accidents caused by human error on the suburban roads. Giventhe increasing population growth and the increase in road accidents in thecountry, finding the most effective accident factors can lead to a reduction indamages and casualties resulting from these accidents and a proper basis forroads accident management practices. Therefore, the purpose of this study wasto identify the factors affecting the incidence of accidents resulting humanerror leading to injury or death, as well as to present a model for predictingaccidents due to the impact of human error in suburban roads of Hamadanprovince during 2012-2017. To collect the data, the data collected were usedusing the accidents unprepared form. From 1345 accidents registered in thecase study, 940 accidents were selected in the incident parts, out of which 610accidents due to carelessness in 97 plots were selected for use in the model. Inthe modeling process, were used accident data, traffic and geometry of theincident parts of the case study that the geometrical data of the identifiedincident parts were collected as field and using two-frequency GPS. Findingsshowed that Poisson model is the best model in terms of accident predictionand ability to present formula. Five factors were effective in this model that theindicator factor of proximity to population centers with the coefficient of1/13081 had the most effect in car accidents caused by carelessness and factorssuch as slope and curvature composition, crash hour traffic, segmentationlength and slope are next hierarchy. The results of this study can be a properbasis for management disaster management practices caused by human error.Also the factors affecting accidents, will be used as a suitable tool at themiddle level of road safety management.

This study focuses on the effects of the quality of marital life on the childbearing intention. The discussion of this paper is based on the results of a survey conducted in Tehran City. The survey includes 1232 married men and women under 49 years old who have been selected on the basis of multi-stage cluster sampling method. According to the preliminary results of this study, the childbearing desire is affected by the quality of marital life: the lower the latter, the higher the former. However, this preliminary result is not supported by multivariate analyses of this study. In addition, the results of logistic regression analyses indicate that the effect of the quality of marital life on individuals’ childbearing intention depends on their current status in terms of the number of children they already have. This means that a higher quality of marital life can lead to greater childbearing intention only amongst those who have no or one child, whereas it does not have any significant effect on childbearing intention of those who already have two or more children.

Following decline in fertility rate and changes in religiousity in recent decades, this study aims to assess the relationship between religiousity and fertility intention. The data was derived from Tehran’s Married Lifestyle Survey in 2016 and a sample of 1272 married men and women so that age of women in their family was 15 to 49 years, were selected. The result showed that childbearing in Tehran is almost universal. About 4 percent of participants intend to remain childless wich is only 16.5 percent of those who are childless. While 67/3 percent of individuals intend to have two or more children, only 47/6 percent of individuals have two children or more in research time. Tendency of people toward religion is relatively high. Almost 65 percent of people have middle and higher level of religiosity. Multivariate analysis show that fertility intention has been influenced by religiousity and this impact continues with presence of effective socio-economic variables. Although women are more religious than men, effect of religiousity on childbearing intentions for both sexes is similar